Random trade speculation

[KCCub]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Question that has begun rattling around in my head: how much less does a Alcantara + Peralta combo cost compared to Detmers?

I'd presume it'd be in the vicinity but with a much less painful headliner?  And I'd much much rather have the two guys for the rest of this season.

I've been on the 2 SP train. I would be fine with Alcantara + Freddy/Gaus. The biggest drawback is Alcantara's extra year of control is going to be the lockout season vs having Detmers through 2028. 

I'm also of the opinion to just go get Detmers and one of the good SP rentals. This is our window. The IF is locked up for a long time, we have a lot of money coming off the books after this season, and Detmers fills one of the roster holes for two years at a reasonable price. Seems like the package speculation around Detmers is going to be in the realm of something like Ayers/Rojas or Ayers/Wiggins/Triantos? What will the top rentals cost (Not including Skubal)? Like a fringe top 100 guy plus another young upside player? I would be so tempted to just do that and roll with a combination of Detmers/Boyd/(Freddy or Gaus)/Shota for the playoffs. Add a Kittridge type as a late inning guy you trust and hope to get a couple of these guys healthy and usable out of the pen for a playoff run - Brown/Palencia/Cabrera/Steele/Harvey.

[Jason Ross]

Becuase these things will undoubtedly affect the deadline there are a few injury updates of note:
- Alex Cohen says Justin Steele is progressing towards pitching for the Cubs.
- Ben Brown is about to resume throwing. Was seen in Arizona.

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I've been on the 2 SP train. I would be fine with Alcantara + Freddy/Gaus. The biggest drawback is Alcantara's extra year of control is going to be the lockout season vs having Detmers through 2028. 

I'm also of the opinion to just go get Detmers and one of the good SP rentals. This is our window. The IF is locked up for a long time, we have a lot of money coming off the books after this season, and Detmers fills one of the roster holes for two years at a reasonable price. Seems like the package speculation around Detmers is going to be in the realm of something like Ayers/Rojas or Ayers/Wiggins/Triantos? What will the top rentals cost (Not including Skubal)? Like a fringe top 100 guy plus another young upside player? I would be so tempted to just do that and roll with a combination of Detmers/Boyd/(Freddy or Gaus)/Shota for the playoffs. Add a Kittridge type as a late inning guy you trust and hope to get a couple of these guys healthy and usable out of the pen for a playoff run - Brown/Palencia/Cabrera/Steele/Harvey.

As much as I'd like it to be two, I think the Cubs will go, ultimately, with one. Obviously, injuries can happen and will, but New Guy, Shota, Boyd and Cabrera/Brown would be a perfectly fine playoff rotation as long as you are planning on those two guys coming back to the rotation. And with Rea and Assad in tow, you have two depth options to easily take the 5th spot. The math changes based on your feelings on Cabrera or Brown returning, certainly, but the Cubs are definitely acting like they're coming back. There is a bit of an event horizon in that the deadline is to get the Cubs into the best playoff shape they can be, and if they need a Rea still on top of a playoff arm? I think you'd get two. But I do think they have three pitchers you can reasonably trust (or that the Cubs feel like they can trust) in that regards. 

I'd probably rather them spend the resources they would on the 2nd SP on the bullpen. Give me the best SP you can get and the best RP you can get. 

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

As much as I'd like it to be two, I think the Cubs will go, ultimately, with one. Obviously, injuries can happen and will, but New Guy, Shota, Boyd and Cabrera/Brown would be a perfectly fine playoff rotation as long as you are planning on those two guys coming back to the rotation. And with Rea and Assad in tow, you have two depth options to easily take the 5th spot. The math changes based on your feelings on Cabrera or Brown returning, certainly, but the Cubs are definitely acting like they're coming back. There is a bit of an event horizon in that the deadline is to get the Cubs into the best playoff shape they can be, and if they need a Rea still on top of a playoff arm? I think you'd get two. But I do think they have three pitchers you can reasonably trust (or that the Cubs feel like they can trust) in that regards. 

I'd probably rather them spend the resources they would on the 2nd SP on the bullpen. Give me the best SP you can get and the best RP you can get. 

I feel like the math on the SP/RP split weighs heavily on who's coming back healthy.  If you think you're going to have Brown, Cabrera, and Palencia all good to go for the playoffs, one of each would suffice.  If you think you're not getting Palencia back, you probably need 2 RP because you're probably going to rely on Brown to be the versatile fireman like Palencia was in the playoffs last year and you'll need another reliable back end guy to finish games on top of the 6/7th inning guy you were probably getting anyway.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

I feel like the math on the SP/RP split weighs heavily on who's coming back healthy.  If you think you're going to have Brown, Cabrera, and Palencia all good to go for the playoffs, one of each would suffice.  If you think you're not getting Palencia back, you probably need 2 RP because you're probably going to rely on Brown to be the versatile fireman like Palencia was in the playoffs last year and you'll need another reliable back end guy to finish games on top of the 6/7th inning guy you were probably getting anyway.

I'm a fan of:
1 SP
1 RP
1 RP you get cheap and can dump either with an option or just leave off the roster and not feel like you paid too much for that privilege 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

We really need the Padres to lose out the rest of the week because I'd love Morejon. He's a rental so he'd probably be relatively cheap

[Post Count Padder]

3 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

We really need the Padres to lose out the rest of the week because I'd love Morejon. He's a rental so he'd probably be relatively cheap

He was an All Star last year, has good numbers and will probably be the best non-Mason Miller reliever traded. I really would love him on the Cubs too but I don't think it will be "that" cheap.

[squally1313]

Give me two starters. The difference in cost isn't that bad, and it should be obvious I'm leaning on the side that thinks we should spend more prospect capital than less. When I look at Cabrera/Brown/Steele, I think there's an optimistic path of them being fully stretched out, a middle path of them being reliable bullpen options, and a pessimistic path of them not being available at all. I'm choosing the middle option and saying that the rehabbing guys (those three, plus Palencia/Harvey as a top tier, Maton/Milner/Roberts as a middle tier) is more than enough to overhaul the bullpen. 

On the starting side, Cabrera hasn't done enough for me to want him near a playoff start, and you also can't guarantee the health of Boyd and Shota in two months, whether it be actual injury or just plain fatigue. Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results or whatever. 

I believe everyone listed below, barring setbacks, is expected to be mostly ready to go come sometime in September, if not before. It's pitching, so there will be setbacks, but this, paired with our offensive guys, I'd take against anyone.

• SP1 Boyd
• SP2 Detmers
• SP3 Shota
• SP4 Rental (Gausman, Peralta, would be fine with someone splitting the difference between that tier and Peterson/Assad)
• Bullpen: Steele, Brown, Cabrera, Palencia, Webb, Rolison, pick two from Maton/Milner/Roberts/Hollowell/Ferguson/Thielbar/Harvey

When one of the starters inevitably goes down, your fourth playoff spot becomes some sort of piggyback start from the Steele/Brown/Cabrera group and Rea or Assad gets the call. Starters can always pitch in relief. Relievers can't become starters. If the difference is giving up Owen Ayers instead of Jonathan Long or whatever, don't care. 

Edited 1 hour ago by squally1313

[KCCub]

12 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Give me two starters. The difference in cost isn't that bad, and it should be obvious I'm leaning on the side that thinks we should spend more prospect capital than less. When I look at Cabrera/Brown/Steele, I think there's an optimistic path of them being fully stretched out, a middle path of them being reliable bullpen options, and a pessimistic path of them not being available at all. I'm choosing the middle option and saying that the rehabbing guys (those three, plus Palencia/Harvey as a top tier, Maton/Milner/Roberts as a middle tier) is more than enough to overhaul the bullpen. 

On the starting side, Cabrera hasn't done enough for me to want him near a playoff start, and you also can't guarantee the health of Boyd and Shota in two months, whether it be actual injury or just plain fatigue. Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results or whatever. 

I believe everyone listed below, barring setbacks, is expected to be mostly ready to go come sometime in September, if not before. It's pitching, so there will be setbacks, but this, paired with our offensive guys, I'd take against anyone.

• SP1 Boyd
• SP2 Detmers
• SP3 Shota
• SP4 Rental (Gausman, Peralta, would be fine with someone splitting the difference between that tier and Peterson/Assad)
• Bullpen: Steele, Brown, Cabrera, Palencia, Webb, Rolison, pick two from Maton/Milner/Roberts/Hollowell/Ferguson/Thielbar/Harvey

When one of the starters inevitably goes down, your fourth playoff spot becomes some sort of piggyback start from the Steele/Brown/Cabrera group and Rea or Assad gets the call. Starters can always pitch in relief. Relievers can't become starters. If the difference is giving up Owen Ayers instead of Jonathan Long or whatever, don't care. 

This is where I'm at or at least what I would do. Now do I think Jed will actually do it this year vs grabbing 1 SP 1 RP and 1 throwaway arm, I would lean him doing the latter until proven otherwise.

Like you pointed out, there will be more pitching injuries. This is the last chance to add meaningful help and I would do that.

[Bertz]

Additional starters double as additional relievers, especially now that Taillon is gone.  All of the SPs we have that tou might give some side-eye to either have explicit success in the pen or at minimum have a times through the order penalty which makes you think they'd play up in shorter bursts.

The team is *probably* fine to add one SP.  Shota and Boyd are good, the SP they add will probably be good, and Cabrera will probably come back fine.  Outside shot Brown has enough time to make it back as a SP too.  But like we saw last year Boyd and Shota limped to the finish line performance-wise and Horton got hurt basically the last possible moment and suddenly we get caught with our pants down.

Add two starters and you insulate yourselves that much more.  I'm not as flippant as most about burning through the farm, but like this pitching staff's going to be on shakey ground even if they go add one very good SP.  

[Jason Ross]

Not reporting, but thought it was worth a talking point:

 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

Not reporting, but thought it was worth a talking point:

 

He’s signed through next year but at $11m that’s seemingly value neutral, so I think a tad steep for 20ish innings this year. Upgrade one of the names and add in Freddy. 

[Post Count Padder]

Yeah that seems a little steep for me. Now if we keep those names, add in someone like Jonathan Long or McGwire and add Clay Holmes to the mix I'd be down.

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Not reporting, but thought it was worth a talking point:

 

Just Baseball? More like "Just looked at ERA", am I right?

But seriously though that's silly

[Jason Ross]

I'd probably do that. I like Ayers but he's truly a 25 year old pop up prospect; catcher be damned. Wing has a season ending injury - that isn't a good thing. But I think the same reasons I'd probably, with an arm twist, do it, are the same reasons I also don't get from a Mets' perspective. Why do you target Ayers when you have Alvarez? Why do you target a teenage pitcher who's hurt? 

 

[Post Count Padder]

Boston got all of 2 plate appearances from Mead before he took a fastball off the wrist and went on the IL. Tough break (pun intended, though it's just being called a bruise for now). Wonder if they dive back into the INF market.

[NorthsideAvenger]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'd probably do that. I like Ayers but he's truly a 25 year old pop up prospect; catcher be damned. Wing has a season ending injury - that isn't a good thing. But I think the same reasons I'd probably, with an arm twist, do it, are the same reasons I also don't get from a Mets' perspective. Why do you target Ayers when you have Alvarez? Why do you target a teenage pitcher who's hurt? 

 

I'm good with selling high on Ayers but I rather trade that chip (in a package of course) for a guy like Detmers.

[Bertz]

I didn't click through to Twitter I only saw Ayers name, they added Wing too?  Come on now be serious