Brewers (Misiorowski) vs Cubs (Brown): 5/19/26, 6:40pm

[Geographyhater8888]

9 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Personally I think you but way too much stock in getting a star bat. 

Easier said than done but it sure would be nice if we had a guy who could capitalize on these run scoring opportunities for all 6 months to help with sequencing. The offense on the aggregate is right around where we expect and going through a stabilization period. The only way they’d maintain that 5.5 run/game pace was if Happ, Nico and Suzuki sustained their career high OPS paces. The extreme streakiness still persists.
Same for starting pitching. It’d be nice if he had a guy who could’ve shut down the brewers for a 3-2 win on Monday. If winning 84-90 wins is the goal here than we have the guys to do it. My worry is the lack of any significant positive regression from the staff. 

 

Edited 9 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Derwood]

Since the end of the 10-game streak, everyone not named Kelly or Bregman has been complete dogshit at the plate

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Regardless of the sport, it's the elite players that carry you to a championship.  There are very few instances in any sport where a team wins "by committee" and doesn't have a superstar.  That's just the truth, even in baseball. Let's look at the last 10 or 11 WS winners:

2025 Dodgers:  Ohtani, Freeman, Mookie + 
2024 Dodgers:  Ohtani, Freeman, Mookie + 
2023 Rangers:  This team had 4 all stars + Seager runner up MVP 
2022 Astros:  Alvarez, Verlander + 
2021 Braves:  Freeman, Riley +
2020 Dodgers:  Betts, Seager, Kershaw +
2019 Nats:  Soto, Strasburg, Scherzer
2018 Red Sox:  Betts, JD Martinez +
2017 Astros:  Altuve, Springer, Correa +
2016 Cubs:  Bryant, Rizzo, Arrieta, ++ 

Even the small market 2015 Royals had 5 all stars + even better pitching and defense.  

It's worth mentioning that every team that lost in the WS to these teams above also had 1 or 2 superstars.  

It is a big deal that the Cubs don't have one and IMO more people should be criticizing them for it.  Especially at the massive payroll they got and year 6 of the current GM.  There are no excuses for it.  

 

We are not going to agree here. I mean it is easy to go back and suggest someone was a superstar and he was in a line up so that made that line up have a superstar bat. You are listing guys from a team that won a WS. So of course they had great years. But just taking the Dodgers of last year, as an example. You name Betts. He sucked last year. Freeman wasn’t any better than Busch. You lost Riley as a superstar. Is he? Again, Cubs have bats like him. As for other stars you menruon, some are pitchers. That has nothing to do with what you said originally and what we are discussing. Cubs have several ballplayers in the line up that can produce over a 125 OPS+. A couple that have been over 140. So if the Cubs won a WS this year someone would look back 5 years from now and make your same argument and list 2 guys from the Cubs team and suggest they were superstar hitters and that is why the Cubs won. Hell, had they won last year I am sure you could have said Busch, Tucker and Suzuki. The term “superstar” bat is just too vague and too easy to suggest someone is one after the fact. 

[chibears55]

12 hours ago, mk49 said:

What I don't like is that he takes too many easy middle middle.  Just swing at them.

 

 

Too much guessing,  maybe hes still hearing banging of the cans and expects breaking pitches. 🙄🙄🙄😅😅😅

[chibears55]

10 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I hear you on that.  But ask yourself this - what makes this lineup different today than the one that ended the 24 season?  Only change is Bregman over Morel/Peredes and a better DH.  Otherwise it’s the same exact lineup.  (I’m going to exclude Tucker from this analysis because it was obvious they were never serious about extending him).

So it’s basically 3 seasons in a row with the same lineup.  Why aren’t they trying to find their Olson or Jose Ramirez or whoever that can change the game with one swing?  

Like I can’t be the only one here that thinks it’s weird they don’t have that face of the franchise guy and haven’t made a serious enough effort to find him.  On most nights, the Cubs don’t have the best player on the field or the more talented pitcher on the mound.  It’s not a viable path to a WS trip.  

I just want to get to the point where the conversation shifts from “anything can happen in october” to “we expect to win in october because we have a dominant f***ing team”.  Like it was in ‘15 and ‘16.  

 

Hoyer and Theo for that matters, likes to hold their guys and not trade high on them when/if the opportunity comes.

We can agree up until this past offseason,  Hoyer hasn't had the money to spend,  so he looks for bargains for the bullpen and bench and he pretty much has stuck with the young guys that came through organization or traded for.

Let look at current position players.

Amaya, Hoerner, Happ, PCA , Shaw, Ballesteros all came up through Iowa.

Busch came from Dodgers organization 

Nicky Lopez, cheap journeyman bench guy

Suzuki was purchased from Japan 

Conforto,  low cost FA signing for bench

Kelly was a low cost FA sign to be backup C

Swanson was his first big FA sign (position player) after coming off his career year and hes been in a decline offensively each year here.

Bregman is his second biggest FA signed position player and so far hes been nothing but a disappointing singles hitter with zero ability to hit with RISP.

So, this is why the Cubs offense has been mostly stagnant the last couple years,  because it is the same group of guys, and despite having some talent,  they are not guys that can carry a team for the bulk of a season,  these are guys you have to wait and hope for them to go on hot streaks together. 

If youre hoping for a change this coming offseason you can put that aside because all but 2 (Happ, Suzuki)are signed to be back, and it wouldn't surprise me if Hoyer decides to bring one or both of them back next season and if he lets one go, his replacement is likely coming up from Iowa.(Alcantara).

 

 

 

 

[squally1313]

The problem was, is, and will be the pitching. Offenses and players do not just wRC 115 every day. At the end of the (second) ten game win streak, we had a team 123 wRC. Do you know how many teams have performed better than that since Covid? One. One team, in one season, out of 180 different seasons. Since then, we've absolutely struggled, certainly to what we did through May 8 but also to probably our true talent level. But there's also a .247 BABIP (27th in the majors) and, relatedly, the biggest negative difference between our wOBA and our xwOBA. 19th in xwOBA isn't good, but it's a 10 game sample size, so...whatever. YTD, we're 4th in wOBA, 6th in xwOBA, 2nd in defensive value. 

In terms of star power, I understand the frustration, but going WS winner by WS winner and listing out # of all stars isn't exactly going to convince me. The Rangers had 4 all star starters in the lineup for 2023, wow, cool, two of them were Jonah Heim and Josh Jung. Ideally you develop elite level players. The closest we've gotten have done most of it in non-slugging ways (PCA, Nico). (In fact, there are 7 offensive players that have produced more fWAR since opening day last year. 6 of them are homegrown: Judge, Witt, Cal, Carroll, Ramirez, Perdomo. The 7th is Shohei). Beyond that, you find a ton of good players and you hope they stumble into very good years. Worth noting, by the way, that Jose Ramirez and Matt Olson were thrown out there multiple times. Jose Ramirez has a career 80 wRC in 190 playoffs PAs, Olson's wRC goes down 22 points. They're names, they sell jerseys, you remember the highlights. I have no problem with our current offensive approach (besides the fact that I probably would have gone Schwarber over Bregman).

We needed pitching last year, we needed pitching in the offseason, we needed pitching on opening day, and we desperately need pitching at the moment. We have an offensive core that since the beginning of last year has put up the 2nd most fWAR in baseball. Our CF, 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, catcher all have 4+ years of control. We have Shaw, Ballesteros, Rojas, Alcantara, Ramirez (throw in Triantos and Long if you're feeling generous). All of their best positions are blocked, and none of them have shown the offensive ability to play a corner outfield or a DH role. We have zero pitching healthy reinforcements coming any time soon. We are currently the 24th best pitching staff by fWAR, we have the 15th best ERA with the 5th best BABIP. We will continue to outperform our underlying data/metrics because our defense is sweet and Wrigley has suppressed HRs. That should not stop us from improving the pitcher's performance. 

tl/dr: We need pitching. 

[Rcal10]

58 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The problem was, is, and will be the pitching. Offenses and players do not just wRC 115 every day. At the end of the (second) ten game win streak, we had a team 123 wRC. Do you know how many teams have performed better than that since Covid? One. One team, in one season, out of 180 different seasons. Since then, we've absolutely struggled, certainly to what we did through May 8 but also to probably our true talent level. But there's also a .247 BABIP (27th in the majors) and, relatedly, the biggest negative difference between our wOBA and our xwOBA. 19th in xwOBA isn't good, but it's a 10 game sample size, so...whatever. YTD, we're 4th in wOBA, 6th in xwOBA, 2nd in defensive value. 

In terms of star power, I understand the frustration, but going WS winner by WS winner and listing out # of all stars isn't exactly going to convince me. The Rangers had 4 all star starters in the lineup for 2023, wow, cool, two of them were Jonah Heim and Josh Jung. Ideally you develop elite level players. The closest we've gotten have done most of it in non-slugging ways (PCA, Nico). (In fact, there are 7 offensive players that have produced more fWAR since opening day last year. 6 of them are homegrown: Judge, Witt, Cal, Carroll, Ramirez, Perdomo. The 7th is Shohei). Beyond that, you find a ton of good players and you hope they stumble into very good years. Worth noting, by the way, that Jose Ramirez and Matt Olson were thrown out there multiple times. Jose Ramirez has a career 80 wRC in 190 playoffs PAs, Olson's wRC goes down 22 points. They're names, they sell jerseys, you remember the highlights. I have no problem with our current offensive approach (besides the fact that I probably would have gone Schwarber over Bregman).

We needed pitching last year, we needed pitching in the offseason, we needed pitching on opening day, and we desperately need pitching at the moment. We have an offensive core that since the beginning of last year has put up the 2nd most fWAR in baseball. Our CF, 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, catcher all have 4+ years of control. We have Shaw, Ballesteros, Rojas, Alcantara, Ramirez (throw in Triantos and Long if you're feeling generous). All of their best positions are blocked, and none of them have shown the offensive ability to play a corner outfield or a DH role. We have zero pitching healthy reinforcements coming any time soon. We are currently the 24th best pitching staff by fWAR, we have the 15th best ERA with the 5th best BABIP. We will continue to outperform our underlying data/metrics because our defense is sweet and Wrigley has suppressed HRs. That should not stop us from improving the pitcher's performance. 

tl/dr: We need pitching. 

Thanks for this. I completely agree.  

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

The problem was, is, and will be the pitching. Offenses and players do not just wRC 115 every day. At the end of the (second) ten game win streak, we had a team 123 wRC. Do you know how many teams have performed better than that since Covid? One. One team, in one season, out of 180 different seasons. Since then, we've absolutely struggled, certainly to what we did through May 8 but also to probably our true talent level. But there's also a .247 BABIP (27th in the majors) and, relatedly, the biggest negative difference between our wOBA and our xwOBA. 19th in xwOBA isn't good, but it's a 10 game sample size, so...whatever. YTD, we're 4th in wOBA, 6th in xwOBA, 2nd in defensive value. 

In terms of star power, I understand the frustration, but going WS winner by WS winner and listing out # of all stars isn't exactly going to convince me. The Rangers had 4 all star starters in the lineup for 2023, wow, cool, two of them were Jonah Heim and Josh Jung. Ideally you develop elite level players. The closest we've gotten have done most of it in non-slugging ways (PCA, Nico). (In fact, there are 7 offensive players that have produced more fWAR since opening day last year. 6 of them are homegrown: Judge, Witt, Cal, Carroll, Ramirez, Perdomo. The 7th is Shohei). Beyond that, you find a ton of good players and you hope they stumble into very good years. Worth noting, by the way, that Jose Ramirez and Matt Olson were thrown out there multiple times. Jose Ramirez has a career 80 wRC in 190 playoffs PAs, Olson's wRC goes down 22 points. They're names, they sell jerseys, you remember the highlights. I have no problem with our current offensive approach (besides the fact that I probably would have gone Schwarber over Bregman).

We needed pitching last year, we needed pitching in the offseason, we needed pitching on opening day, and we desperately need pitching at the moment. We have an offensive core that since the beginning of last year has put up the 2nd most fWAR in baseball. Our CF, 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, catcher all have 4+ years of control. We have Shaw, Ballesteros, Rojas, Alcantara, Ramirez (throw in Triantos and Long if you're feeling generous). All of their best positions are blocked, and none of them have shown the offensive ability to play a corner outfield or a DH role. We have zero pitching healthy reinforcements coming any time soon. We are currently the 24th best pitching staff by fWAR, we have the 15th best ERA with the 5th best BABIP. We will continue to outperform our underlying data/metrics because our defense is sweet and Wrigley has suppressed HRs. That should not stop us from improving the pitcher's performance. 

tl/dr: We need pitching. 

They definitely need pitching,  and I was hoping with the offense being pretty much intact, that Hoyer would be more aggressive in that department over the offseason. 

Instead he made 1 big move, trading for Cabrera and kept everything else the same, including adding hopeful rejects for the bullpen.

I understand injuries has hurt them, but he could of traded a 1, 2 or all 3 of Rea, Boyd, or Taillon for whatever he could get to clear money and added a better upgrades for the rotation. 

 

 

 

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

They definitely need pitching,  and I was hoping with the offense being pretty much intact, that Hoyer would be more aggressive in that department over the offseason. 

Instead he made 1 big move, trading for Cabrera and kept everything else the same, including adding hopeful rejects for the bullpen.

I understand injuries has hurt them, but he could of traded a 1, 2 or all 3 of Rea, Boyd, or Taillon for whatever he could get to clear money and added a better upgrades for the rotation. 

 

 

 

I agree they could have traded Tailon and added someone. I don’t agree with Rea or Boyd. Who are they going to get that is better at their price. Boyd got hurt. That is his only problem. And if Rea was used as he should be, he is fine. But, sure, trade Tailon to dump salary and then spend that salary on someone else. But would that someone else be a sure thing to be better than Tailon going into the season. If you are talking about guys like Gallen or Giolito the answer would be, no. If you aimed higher for Cease, King or Suarez, sure, that would have been great. 
Going into 26 the Cubs has Cabrera, Horton, Boyd, Imanaga and Tailon. With Steele set to come back by June 15, Wiggins on the doorstep, Rea, Wicks, Assad and Brown as depth/pen. What hopeful rejects did they add to the pen to start 26? They had Rea, Brown, Maton, Theilbar, Webb, Milner, Palencia and Harvey. Harvey was the big gamble, because of health. But they also had guys like Assad, Wicks, Roberts, Little as guys who can fill in for one injury. Sure, now they have hopeful rejects….Rolison, Thornton, Blach, etc (too many to remember). But I don’t think they were unreasonable to not guard against 6 injuries to the staff and numerous injuries to guys in the minors. But back to your original point, and something I agree with you on, wish they dealt Tailon and added someone closer to a top end guy, in the rotation. 

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Going into 26 the Cubs has Cabrera, Horton, Boyd, Imanaga and Tailon. With Steele set to come back by June 15, Wiggins on the doorstep, Rea, Wicks, Assad and Brown as depth/pen. What hopeful rejects did they add to the pen to start 26? They had Rea, Brown, Maton, Theilbar, Webb, Milner, Palencia and Harvey. Harvey was the big gamble, because of health. But they also had guys like Assad, Wicks, Roberts, Little as guys who can fill in for one injury. Sure, now they have hopeful rejects….Rolison, Thornton, Blach, etc (too many to remember). But I don’t think they were unreasonable to not guard against 6 injuries to the staff and numerous injuries to guys in the minors. But back to your original point, and something I agree with you on, wish they dealt Tailon and added someone closer to a top end guy, in the rotation. 

1. 'Steele set to come back by June 15' - that was conjecture at best, he threw like 20 innings last year, and it was a major surgery. Should have been considered a bonus.

2. 'Wiggins on the doorstep' - Disagree. Should have been considered a bonus.

3. Fangraphs gave Steele 83 innings in the rotation this year...and still ranked us 20th in baseball in terms of starters production.

I think we both agree there should have been more top end talent. But I think we gave them too much credit for figuring out how to stash 6 5th starters. In terms of the bullpen, which has been bad...I can squint and see a bullpen building theory where we throw stuff at a wall until we find a good mix by August-ish, and we go into the stretch run with a solid group, and the overall production is bad, but it's fine because the offense and rotation are good enough to carry us comfortably to a playoff spot. It's not great, I don't know why we didn't sign an elite guy if we were going over the luxury tax line. But trying to solve the modern bullpen seems impossible. 

There's too much talent on the offensive side of the organization, and not nearly enough on the pitching side. We took a step towards evening this up with Caissie for Cabrera, and then Horton exploded and we ended up right back in the same spot. You're going to have to overpay to fix in mid-season. They should do that. 

[PeanutPunch33]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

We are not going to agree here. I mean it is easy to go back and suggest someone was a superstar and he was in a line up so that made that line up have a superstar bat. You are listing guys from a team that won a WS. So of course they had great years. But just taking the Dodgers of last year, as an example. You name Betts. He sucked last year. Freeman wasn’t any better than Busch. You lost Riley as a superstar. Is he? Again, Cubs have bats like him. As for other stars you menruon, some are pitchers. That has nothing to do with what you said originally and what we are discussing. Cubs have several ballplayers in the line up that can produce over a 125 OPS+. A couple that have been over 140. So if the Cubs won a WS this year someone would look back 5 years from now and make your same argument and list 2 guys from the Cubs team and suggest they were superstar hitters and that is why the Cubs won. Hell, had they won last year I am sure you could have said Busch, Tucker and Suzuki. The term “superstar” bat is just too vague and too easy to suggest someone is one after the fact. 

You are right that "superstar" is vague and open to interpretation.  But I feel like all of us can agree that superstar = considered one of the best players in the league, as a general definition.  Also, you are right that I probably should have left pitchers off my list since my point was about the lineup. 

However, I do want to clarify that my analysis wasn't using some benefit of hindsight.  I tried to list how those players were viewed in that particular year.  For example, if you and I stepped into a time machine back to November 2022, it would be indisputable that Austin Riley is one of the best players in the sport.  6 WAR player with 38 home runs and an .890+ OPS.  Or if I took you back to November 2023, when Seager finished the season with 1.013 OPS and an MVP runner up finish (and WS MVP).  

Point being - these guys might not be superstars today, but they absolutely were in those WS years I listed.  I just want the Cubs to have a player like that because it would solve so many issues.  Can't get the big hit with RISP?  That's because there's no star player.  Can't hit a 99 MPH fastball when it's right down the middle of the plate?  That's because there's no star player here with elite bat speed.  Can't get the big 3 run home run in the 8th inning to steal a game that you otherwise would have lost?  No star player.  

This is a good team, possibly a really good team.  But to be great, there is a major ingredient missing (IMO). 

 

[PeanutPunch33]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Hoyer and Theo for that matters, likes to hold their guys and not trade high on them when/if the opportunity comes.

We can agree up until this past offseason,  Hoyer hasn't had the money to spend,  so he looks for bargains for the bullpen and bench and he pretty much has stuck with the young guys that came through organization or traded for.

Let look at current position players.

Amaya, Hoerner, Happ, PCA , Shaw, Ballesteros all came up through Iowa.

Busch came from Dodgers organization 

Nicky Lopez, cheap journeyman bench guy

Suzuki was purchased from Japan 

Conforto,  low cost FA signing for bench

Kelly was a low cost FA sign to be backup C

Swanson was his first big FA sign (position player) after coming off his career year and hes been in a decline offensively each year here.

Bregman is his second biggest FA signed position player and so far hes been nothing but a disappointing singles hitter with zero ability to hit with RISP.

So, this is why the Cubs offense has been mostly stagnant the last couple years,  because it is the same group of guys, and despite having some talent,  they are not guys that can carry a team for the bulk of a season,  these are guys you have to wait and hope for them to go on hot streaks together. 

If youre hoping for a change this coming offseason you can put that aside because all but 2 (Happ, Suzuki)are signed to be back, and it wouldn't surprise me if Hoyer decides to bring one or both of them back next season and if he lets one go, his replacement is likely coming up from Iowa.(Alcantara).

 

 

 

 

Exactly.  It's basically the same lineup for 3 seasons in a row, aside from 3rd base and 1/2 a season of Tucker. 

It's just annoying that even the crappy teams have guys like Witt Jr or Corbin Carroll or Elly De La Cruz.  Even the Athletics have some big time bats now.  

If the Cubs can't draft and develop this type of player, they should at least be aggressive in trying to acquire that guy in a trade.  They have the resources to do it, but they have been way too conservative over the years in making a big move.  

[PeanutPunch33]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

The problem was, is, and will be the pitching. Offenses and players do not just wRC 115 every day. At the end of the (second) ten game win streak, we had a team 123 wRC. Do you know how many teams have performed better than that since Covid? One. One team, in one season, out of 180 different seasons. Since then, we've absolutely struggled, certainly to what we did through May 8 but also to probably our true talent level. But there's also a .247 BABIP (27th in the majors) and, relatedly, the biggest negative difference between our wOBA and our xwOBA. 19th in xwOBA isn't good, but it's a 10 game sample size, so...whatever. YTD, we're 4th in wOBA, 6th in xwOBA, 2nd in defensive value. 

In terms of star power, I understand the frustration, but going WS winner by WS winner and listing out # of all stars isn't exactly going to convince me. The Rangers had 4 all star starters in the lineup for 2023, wow, cool, two of them were Jonah Heim and Josh Jung. Ideally you develop elite level players. The closest we've gotten have done most of it in non-slugging ways (PCA, Nico). (In fact, there are 7 offensive players that have produced more fWAR since opening day last year. 6 of them are homegrown: Judge, Witt, Cal, Carroll, Ramirez, Perdomo. The 7th is Shohei). Beyond that, you find a ton of good players and you hope they stumble into very good years. Worth noting, by the way, that Jose Ramirez and Matt Olson were thrown out there multiple times. Jose Ramirez has a career 80 wRC in 190 playoffs PAs, Olson's wRC goes down 22 points. They're names, they sell jerseys, you remember the highlights. I have no problem with our current offensive approach (besides the fact that I probably would have gone Schwarber over Bregman).

We needed pitching last year, we needed pitching in the offseason, we needed pitching on opening day, and we desperately need pitching at the moment. We have an offensive core that since the beginning of last year has put up the 2nd most fWAR in baseball. Our CF, 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, catcher all have 4+ years of control. We have Shaw, Ballesteros, Rojas, Alcantara, Ramirez (throw in Triantos and Long if you're feeling generous). All of their best positions are blocked, and none of them have shown the offensive ability to play a corner outfield or a DH role. We have zero pitching healthy reinforcements coming any time soon. We are currently the 24th best pitching staff by fWAR, we have the 15th best ERA with the 5th best BABIP. We will continue to outperform our underlying data/metrics because our defense is sweet and Wrigley has suppressed HRs. That should not stop us from improving the pitcher's performance. 

tl/dr: We need pitching. 

 

I'd be down with a superstar pitcher.  Haha.  

I agree that pitching should be the focus.  But I also think that if that opportunity to upgrade the lineup presents itself, they should also jump on it.  Make another Busch-like trade for a young guy on another team who's blocked somewhere.  Maybe they can do that for one of the corner OF spots this off season.  

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Point being - these guys might not be superstars today, but they absolutely were in those WS years I listed.  I just want the Cubs to have a player like that because it would solve so many issues.  Can't get the big hit with RISP?  That's because there's no star player.  Can't hit a 99 MPH fastball when it's right down the middle of the plate?  That's because there's no star player here with elite bat speed.  Can't get the big 3 run home run in the 8th inning to steal a game that you otherwise would have lost?  No star player.  

But like, we both know that's not how baseball works. Are we keeping this superstar on the bench until the highest leverage moment of the game? Do elite hitters come through more than roughly 35% of the time in clutch situations? Are our current hitters (so far) performing worse in those situations because there isn't some elite hitter on the bench watching them?

In 2025 in FG defined high leverage situation, we had the 3rd highest wRC in baseball. 111 vs 110 in all situations. So far in 2026 we're 17th in high leverage (101) vs 4th overall (112). You keep mentioning, not incorrectly, that it's basically running back the same lineup. They were fine last year in those spots. Do you think they just got worse? Or do you think we're talking about a pretty small sample size so far this year and we would be better off assuming it will come back closer in line to how they are hitting in every other situation?

[mul21]

30 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

But like, we both know that's not how baseball works. Are we keeping this superstar on the bench until the highest leverage moment of the game? Do elite hitters come through more than roughly 35% of the time in clutch situations? Are our current hitters (so far) performing worse in those situations because there isn't some elite hitter on the bench watching them?

In 2025 in FG defined high leverage situation, we had the 3rd highest wRC in baseball. 111 vs 110 in all situations. So far in 2026 we're 17th in high leverage (101) vs 4th overall (112). You keep mentioning, not incorrectly, that it's basically running back the same lineup. They were fine last year in those spots. Do you think they just got worse? Or do you think we're talking about a pretty small sample size so far this year and we would be better off assuming it will come back closer in line to how they are hitting in every other situation?

In this same vein, a friend of mine was bitching about Happ, Bregman, Suzuki and Busch all being top 10 in LOB but that also means the Cubs are getting a ton of guys on base and eventually there's going to be regression to the mean and the offense will start scoring runs in bunches again.

[PeanutPunch33]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

But like, we both know that's not how baseball works. Are we keeping this superstar on the bench until the highest leverage moment of the game? Do elite hitters come through more than roughly 35% of the time in clutch situations? Are our current hitters (so far) performing worse in those situations because there isn't some elite hitter on the bench watching them?

In 2025 in FG defined high leverage situation, we had the 3rd highest wRC in baseball. 111 vs 110 in all situations. So far in 2026 we're 17th in high leverage (101) vs 4th overall (112). You keep mentioning, not incorrectly, that it's basically running back the same lineup. They were fine last year in those spots. Do you think they just got worse? Or do you think we're talking about a pretty small sample size so far this year and we would be better off assuming it will come back closer in line to how they are hitting in every other situation?

Why would he need to sit on the bench in that scenario?  When the Cubs acquired Busch he was ready to start from day 1 and he never looked back.  And there will certainly be a corner OF spot available next season, whether it's Happ that gets resigned or Suzuki.  

IMO, the Cubs are a much better team tomorrow by air dropping a guy like Corbin Carroll or James Wood into this lineup than Tarik Skubal into the rotation.  I get that others here wouldn't agree with that, but the Cubs pitching isn't really that bad when they are heathy.  Their issues are injury related and not talent related. 

Whereas, IMO, I question the individual talent in this lineup.  Too many guys with redundant skillsets and not enough pop. 

Also, what are those numbers like from 2024 in your analysis?  I'm guessing not that great.  The Cubs still had Kyle Tucker in 2025 and he was one of the 5 best players in baseball up until June/July.  

There are 27 big leaguers with a .500+ slug at the moment and the Cubs don't have a single one of them.  It's a real issue. 

Edited 2 hours ago by PeanutPunch33

[squally1313]

18 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Why would he need to sit on the bench in that scenario?  When the Cubs acquired Busch he was ready to start from day 1 and he never looked back. 

You called out specific scenarios/individual at bats. There are 9 guys in a lineup, you can't pick who is going to come up in a key situation. One guy doesn't solve a (hypothetical) overall problem. Corbin Carroll in the three hole doesn't solve Dansby striking out with the 5 and 6 hole hitters on base.

 

29 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

IMO, the Cubs are a much better team tomorrow by air dropping a guy like Corbin Carroll or James Wood into this lineup than Tarik Skubal into the rotation.  I get that others here wouldn't agree with that, but the Cubs pitching isn't really that bad when they are heathy.  Their issues are injury related and not talent related. 

Carroll would replace Happ(?), per FG would give you an extra 1.5 wins the rest of the year. A theoretically healthy Tarik Skubal (using Christopher Sanchez's ROS projections) gets you an extra 3 wins over Taillon, who has been simultaneously healthy and terrible this year.

31 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Whereas, IMO, I question the individual talent in this lineup.  Too many guys with redundant skillsets and not enough pop. 

Also, what are those numbers like from 2024 in your analysis?  I'm guessing not that great.  The Cubs still had Kyle Tucker in 2025 and he was one of the 5 best players in baseball up until June/July.  

Since the beginning of 2024, the Cubs are 4th in offensive fWAR, 6th in wRC, 2nd in defense, 10th in slug. Over that stretch, we're 21st in pitching, 11th in ERA, which follows that the ERA is propped up by the defense. Obviously in a fictional Corbin Carroll world the defense is fine, but it seems significantly easier and more productive to fix the pitching.