Chicago Cubs 2026 Top 20 Prospects, No. 3 Jefferson Rojas

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

North Side Baseball's top-20 Chicago Cubs prospects list for the 2026 season is nearing it's conclusion. Today, we'll be focusing on our bronze medalist, Jefferson Rojas.

Be sure to check out all of our previous installments in the series here:

• Prospects #20-16
• Prospects #15-11
• Prospect #10 - James Triantos
• Prospect #9 - Josiah Hartshorn
• Prospect #8 - Kane Kepley
• Prospect #7 - Pedro Ramirez
• Prospect #6 - Ethan Conrad
• Prospect #5 - Jonathon Long
• Prospect #4 - Kevin Alcantara

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#3 - Jefferson Rojas (Tennessee Smokies, Double-A)

Jefferson Rojas feels like he has always been on the precipice of a breakout without ever truly busting through the glass ceiling, and 2025 had a similar vibe. At first, it looked like perhaps we were seeing the coming out party we had all hoped for, as Rojas was an absolute monster at High-A South Bend. Over 299 plate appearances, the Cubs' prospect slashed .278/.379/.492, which was 45% above average. This showed significant development for the 20-year-old, who somewhat struggled with an 88 wRC+ over his first 419 PA's at the same level the year prior.

Things derailed when Rojas got to Tennessee however, which really limited the idea that he truly had broken through. Going homer-less in his first 172 plate appearances, Rojas looked a bit outmatched at Double-A. Much like his first go at High-A, these were productive struggles for a player who was younger than league average, but still, if you were hoping that the year was going to be all sunshine and rainbows, his first look at a higher level likely dampened that outlook.

What to like:

First off, Rojas has always been very young for his level of competition. Getting to High-A by age 19 and Double-A by age 20 puts him on a much quicker pace than most of his peers. Ethan Conrad, our sixth-ranked prospect, was playing at Wake Forrest at 20 years old, which is a step-below the level of competition in Double-A. Rojas has been cutting his teeth against some really quality opponents.

As a player, Rojas has shown a pretty solid ability to keep his strikeouts in check while keeping his walks up. Even struggling in Tennessee last year, the shortstop didn't eclipse a 20% strikeout rate and maintained an 11.6% walk rate. Rojas has a pretty good approach at the plate that maximizes his contact ability without getting so aggressive that he still isn't getting on base. So, despite his 58 wRC+ in Double-A, he maintained an OBP nearly .100 points above his batting average. 

Rojas, outside of Tennessee, showed improved power last year. His 11 home runs in just under 300 PA's was a career high at any level, and his .214 ISO was double that of his last go at High-A as well. This is great news for his future; hitting the ball with authority is never a bad thing. But it's also good because it shows adaptability; yes, he struggled when he was 19 at High-A, but then he came back out and destroyed the level. If you're worried about him heading into Double-A because of his poor first look, this gives you reason to believe he'll overcome that small setback. 

What to work on:

As much as I want to chalk up his struggles at Double-A to just the idea of productive struggles, a 58 wRC+ is never a good thing on it's own. I'm willing to consider context, but for a prospect who defensively isn't likely to stick at shortstop (which I'll explore more later), he's going to have to hit better than that in 2026. 

Defensively, Rojas probably won't stick long term at short. As Baseball America describes in his scouting report, Rojas has "average hands and footwork". This probably will not be enough to allow him to stick at a premium position as he begins to fill out as an adult. While this isn't an immediate disqualifier, it means that his bat will have to do more talking to ensure he can stick at a position like third base down the line. 

The biggest knock on Rojas might be that there isn't a standout tool in his bag. He has a good hit tool, shows the ability to hit double-digit home runs, and he's probably going to be fine at either second or third, but there isn't anything that wows you. Not every player needs a carrying tool, but it can be a concern that without one, he could just be a "jack-of-all-trades" type. It means that he can't really have one aspect dip too far away from average, but so far, this hasn't been an issue, thankfully.

What's next: 

Jefferson Rojas will go back to Double-A and look to improve on his first go at the level. There's reason to be optimistic that last year will be of the "speed bump" variety in Tennessee. First, Rojas showed marked improvement from year one to year two at High-A and repeating that should shock no one.

More importantly, however, Rojas has been killing the baseball in spring training. While I'm not in the "spring statistics are meaningful" camp myself, I do think there's reason to believe in this data; he's changed his pre-pitch set up for the better. Compare below a home run he hit this spring to the video posted above. Notice that he is less upright and that his hands have more separation from his body before he launches into his swing. This seems to have loosened him up a bit and given him extra whip through the zone. He's also made most of his hard contact against players who have sniffed MLB relevancy; for someone like Alex Bregman, that would be meaningless, but for someone who hasn't yet seen Triple-A, we can't ignore that fact.

A successful year for Rojas likely sees him rocket through Double-A like he did in South Bend last year and end up in Iowa. There's little in the way of blocking him at that level on the infield, so he could continue to get reps at short even if he's unlikely to be a solution for the big-league Cubs there. I also wouldn't be surprised if the roller coaster experience continues; kill the level you repeat, struggle against the newest competition. Getting to Iowa by age 21`, regardless of his outcomes against Triple-A pitching, would put him on track to break through with the Cubs by his 22nd birthday, which is no small feat. 

Longer term, he probably fits comfortably as a third baseman with 15 (or so) home runs in his bat while also making a good deal of contact. While not a 1:1 comparison, former Cub Zach McKinstry's 2025 campaign feels like a good outcome for Jefferson: a 3.2 fWAR season that was built with a 112 wRC+, 12 home runs, 9% walk rate, and a 21.7% strikeout rate. 

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What do you think of Jefferson Rojas? Are you optimistic about his mechanical changes? What do you think his upside is? Let us know in the comment section below!

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[JunkyardWalrus]

Our 3rd best prospect comps to Zach McKinstry? Woof.  

I always thought there was supposed to be more there than a 112 wRC + and a 3 win infielder. 

*Again, thank you for taking the time to write this up!

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Our 3rd best prospect comps to Zach McKinstry? Woof.  

I always thought there was supposed to be more there than a 112 wRC + and a 3 win infielder. 

*Again, thank you for taking the time to write this up!

Haha, don't think the name, think the production. A 3+ win 3b is a good thing!

And that's not entirely his ceiling, but more along the lines of a reasonable outcome. He doesn't really have 20 home run power as of today, he isn't a speed demon and isn't a star defender, though at 3b should be fine. It's going to be hard to find wins with a profile of Rojas beyond three wins. 

If he adds some pop, for example, we can start talking about reasonable outcomes that stretch beyond that, but he isn't a slam dunk top-100 type right now and expecting more than that today feels more "rose colored glasses" than objectivity, if we are being honest with ourselves. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

Yeah, rose colored glasses sounds about right. I do the same thing with Alcanatara as well.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Feels like he's the easy #1 if he proves last year's Knoxville games were a fluke  Hoping he can play 2B assuming no SS.

Edited March 14 by Tangled Up in Plaid

[craig]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

.... He doesn't really have 20 home run power as of today, he isn't a speed demon and isn't a star defender, though at 3b should be fine. It's going to be hard to find wins with a profile of Rojas beyond three wins. 

If he adds some pop, for example, we can start talking about reasonable outcomes that stretch beyond that, but he isn't a slam dunk top-100 type right now and expecting more than that today feels more "rose colored glasses" than objectivity, if we are being honest with ourselves. 

Quote

Longer term, he probably fits comfortably as a third baseman with 15 (or so) home runs

Yeah, as with most prospects, it's about HR.  You project ~15HR longer term, and note that he doesn't really have 20-HR power as of today. 

I admit I'm somewhat more optimistic, and see a higher-HR ceiling? 

1. He seems bigger/stronger this spring, and he's shown some exit velocities that could allow for HR's, if he pulls in the air often enough. 
2. Guess what?  He does pull, no?  His South Bend HR's were predominantly pull shots.  Most Cubs minor-league hitters come along as up-the-middle/oppo guys.  Rojas might be the rare one who does pull a lot?  
3. He hit 11 HR in 252AB at South Bend at age 20,  If a regular starter in the majors, he'll have more than double those AB's.  Maybe he'll have more than double those HR's?  Maybe more, if he's bigger, smarter, and stronger?  Obviously big-league pitching is way better, so maybe that's not within reach.  But just physically, in terms of strength and bat speed, I think he's got some power upside.  

If he becomes a really good strong-asset starter someday, I've got to believe >15 HR is going to be part of his package.  

[Bertz]

Worth noting that at any given time you can count all of the guys who have an expectation of 3+ WAR on your fingers.

I'd probably have Rojas at #1 or #2 in the system.  Rojas has, even at his worst, run healthy K/BB/GB numbers.  Now that we see this spring he finally has the strength to A) consistently hit the piss out of the ball and B) catch up to velocity I expect those peripherals to more consistently turn into production.

It's not the most raw physical talent in the system, that's probably Alcantara or maybe one of Conrad/Hartshorn/Tomas, but it kind of doesn't matter.  Being a legitimate middle infielder pretty much inherently gives you a healthy ceiling.  Horsefeathering Geraldo Perdomo was worth 7 WAR last year.  Play pretty good defense and hit like Ian Happ and you're already at 5 WAR.

Fingers crossed that both Rojas and Ramirez continue to hit once games start mattering.  It's hard to lose a guy like Nico but if we have all three of Rojas/Shaw/Ramirez with legitimate claims to that spot that's a pretty enviable situation.

[Bertz]

Annnnnd he just hit a 110 MPH line drive double in a big league ST game