Cubs, Giants Discussing Nico Hoerner Trade

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Is it at his lowest? He's got 5 years of control, had a 99 wRC+ from May through the rest of the year, had one of the best wRC+'s of 3b throughout the 2nd half of the season. I think the only reason people think his value is "at his lowest" is because of an 8 game sample in the playoffs; and I suspect teams are not nearly as fickle as fans on that.

Does he have 5 or 6 years of control left? I had originally thought 5, but I think Cuzi mentioned he had 6. 

[Old Style]

Keep Nico, trade the bootlicker Shaw. 

[Jason Ross]

38 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Does he have 5 or 6 years of control left? I had originally thought 5, but I think Cuzi mentioned he had 6. 

Ah yeah, I think he didn't get the service time last year for a full year. Think he just missed it.

[Jason Ross]

40 minutes ago, Bull said:

Poorly worded on my part.

More that if another team sees him as "the odd man out" per Nightengale, teams would be trying to get a bargain on him.

And just to reinforce the idea that they are certainly not trying to trade him when he is a very big part of the picture this year and going forward. 

While that may be what teams are trying to get, the Cubs don't have to allow him to be traded for that. The reality is, his value is very strong via trade. A team trading for him has to match the Cubs price, not the the other way around. 

[Petrey10]

Half the people wanting Shaw traded is not bc of baseball. 
 

the move should be made only for baseball reasons and I truly don’t see a reason for it.

 

our bench looks pretty awesome with Shaw included and it’s about as cheap as it gets. What an advantage compared to the last few years.

[Bertz]

I think you look more seriously at trading Shaw next winter:

- He will probably be more valuable.  There is still a lot of uncertainty on guys entering their second year, even if Shaw plays at a solid but unspectacular ~2.5 WAR/600 pace the collapse potential is gone and that outweighs the sixth year of team control

- You will have a much more clarity on Nico's situation.  Do you still want to commit to him long term?  How much is he asking for?

- You will know whether there are viable infield reinforcements behind Shaw.  Triantos and Ramirez will open 2026 in Iowa.  By the end of the season they will either be MLB ready or you can mostly write them off.  Rojas won't necessarily be ready even if his season goes well, but he should be close

I wouldn't put the same sort of premium surcharge on Shaw as I would Hoerner, but I think Jason put it right that someone has to come up and meet your price not vice versa.

[Backtobanks]

19 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

Half the people wanting Shaw traded is not bc of baseball. 
 

the move should be made only for baseball reasons and I truly don’t see a reason for it.

 

our bench looks pretty awesome with Shaw included and it’s about as cheap as it gets. What an advantage compared to the last few years.

Shaw's trade value at BTv is 44.1, while Hoerner's is 16.1.  Putting Shaw in a package could probably get us a very good bat and a utility IF.

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

Half the people wanting Shaw traded is not bc of baseball. 
 

the move should be made only for baseball reasons and I truly don’t see a reason for it.

 

our bench looks pretty awesome with Shaw included and it’s about as cheap as it gets. What an advantage compared to the last few years.

I absolutely agree you only trade him for baseball reasons. I can see a scenario where it does make sense. If a team was willing to give you a major league ready starting pitcher for him you might do it. Then in ‘27 you have a young, cheap start to a rotation. Steele, Cabrera, Horton, Wiggins and the Shaw trade pitcher make up a rotation that cost knot $20M to $25M. Gives them ample room to add other pieces. They can probably keep Hoerner if they wanted, beyond ‘26. The issue is, if they did that they had better then add a solid utility guy. That’s where this idea gets tough. But to your point, I don’t want him traded because I disagree with his beliefs. You have to separate that. 

[Tryptamine]

Willi Castro could fill the utility slot nicely, but mega dipshit or not, I'd still expect a big return on Shaw if they moved him. 

 

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think you look more seriously at trading Shaw next winter:

- He will probably be more valuable.  There is still a lot of uncertainty on guys entering their second year, even if Shaw plays at a solid but unspectacular ~2.5 WAR/600 pace the collapse potential is gone and that outweighs the sixth year of team control

- You will have a much more clarity on Nico's situation.  Do you still want to commit to him long term?  How much is he asking for?

- You will know whether there are viable infield reinforcements behind Shaw.  Triantos and Ramirez will open 2026 in Iowa.  By the end of the season they will either be MLB ready or you can mostly write them off.  Rojas won't necessarily be ready even if his season goes well, but he should be close

I wouldn't put the same sort of premium surcharge on Shaw as I would Hoerner, but I think Jason put it right that someone has to come up and meet your price not vice versa.

Best idea I have heard so far. Ride it out this year. Address anything they need to do next year.!

[Tryptamine]

Absolutely, you must have 1 of Nico or Shaw on this 2027 roster. Losing Nico to FA and Shaw to a trade just so that they need to fill in 2B via FA makes no sense. 

[squally1313]

But also, Shaw for Skubal isn't that far off, value wise. This doesn't make sense now, but if the wheels fall off in Detroit, where they are paying soon to be 30 years old Gleyber Torres $22m on a one year QO....

(and then, obviously, in that scenario, the Cubs would need a versatile backup that could play all over the field. I wonder if the Tigers have anyone they're dying to get rid of that could fit that bill (and who's 2027 salary, the last year of his deal, we could easily absorb once all our other deals expire))

Kidding. Mostly. 

[Backtobanks]

Shaw + Taillon + Wicks + Long + $6 million to Boston for Abreau + Bello.

Sign Ramon Urias for UT.

[Tryptamine]

7 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Shaw + Taillon + Wicks + Long + $6 million to Boston for Abreau + Bello.

Sign Ramon Urias for UT.

Gross gross gross. Shaw is likely to be > Abreu, comes with 2 more years of control and I'm am super underwhelmed by Bello

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, Petrey10 said:

Half the people wanting Shaw traded is not bc of baseball. 
 

the move should be made only for baseball reasons and I truly don’t see a reason for it.

If people are questioning Tucker's commitment and passion for baseball, and are using that as a reason not to sign or re-sign him, then it's fair game to question Shaw's priorities when he ducked out in the middle of a playoff race to attend...whatever the hell that was.

[sneakypower]

Nico just had a 5 win campaign and Shaw has literal 1st-percentile exit velos

get rid of him for something useful while you still can

[UMFan83]

14 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

Nico just had a 5 win campaign and Shaw has literal 1st-percentile exit velos

get rid of him for something useful while you still can

Right? It pisses me off that it’s even being discussed even if the Cubs aren’t seriously intending to trade him. I’d think the Cubs should be focused on extension if anything.  

[Tryptamine]

Apparently even I underestimate Nico. I had no idea that Nico was the 18th most valuable position player in baseball over the last 4 years. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

He was also a 6 win player per BR. He should bring a very nice return if they do go that route.

Edited January 15 by We Got The Whole 9

[squally1313]

23 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Apparently even I underestimate Nico. I had no idea that Nico was the 18th most valuable position player in baseball over the last 4 years. 

Better than our new centerpiece, almost as good as our overpaid shortstop

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

I’d think the Cubs should be focused on extension if anything.  

I wish they would extend Nico, but I just don't see it happening.  I doubt they want 3/4 of their infield tied up on expensive long term deals.  They will almost certainly look to fill 2B cheaply with Shaw or someone else like Triantos rather than pay significant money to Nico.

[Soul]

I can deal with Shaw's crap.  It's not like he's the first (or last) Chicago sports player with less than half a brain.  Do what's needed for the W's.

Edited January 15 by Soul

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, Soul said:

I can deal with Shaw's crap.  It's not like he's the first (or last) Chicago sports player with less than half a brain.  Do what's needed for the W's.

Me too. I don’t like him. Will never buy his jersey. But I am not trading him unless they get equal value back. And most likely, I wouldn’t trade him this year. Next year makes more sense, IMO.

[Thusly Boned]

18 minutes ago, Soul said:

I can deal with Shaw's crap.  It's not like he's the first (or last) Chicago sports player with less than half a brain.  Do what's needed for the W's.

I mean most athletes aren't intellectuals, but it's one thing to assume the people you're rooting for are largely regressive morons and it's another to know it. He's in the bucket with Chapman and Addison Russell as far as I'm concerned.

However, IMO there are also sound baseball reasons to want to trade him. For example:

Even before all the nonsense, I wasn't at all in love with what I saw. If his statistically good second half can be spun into a trade for something of value, I say do it.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I wish they would extend Nico, but I just don't see it happening.  I doubt they want 3/4 of their infield tied up on expensive long term deals.  They will almost certainly look to fill 2B cheaply with Shaw or someone else like Triantos rather than pay significant money to Nico.

Actually if Shaw has a good year as super sub they may be able to trade him for a different cheap everyday starter or a young controlled rotation piece next year, opening up the possibility of signing Nico. But for now I wouldn’t extend or trade him. I wouldn’t trade Shaw either, this year.