Wild Card Week: Bears vs Packers Saturday 7pm on Prime

[jersey cubs fan]

Chicago limps into the playoffs with its first home game since the double doink disaster. They are looking for their first playoff win since January 2011 (I was there!) and coming into the game as 1.5 point underdogs. Vegas also has this as the second lowest scoring game in wild card week, probably since this offense has done nothing against GB for most of the 8 quarters they’ve played this season. 
 

Hopefully the week 18 horsefeathers show was more “holding cards close to vest” than “we’re just happy to be here”. 

[Banedon]

15 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Hopefully the week 18 horsefeathers show was more “holding cards close to vest” than “we’re just happy to be here”. 

Johnson did say the game plan for the Lions was pretty simple....so you can take that as either it was too simple, and holding cards close to the vest, or that it's pretty bad that a simple game plan couldn't be executed by the offense.

[gflore34]

Win or lose the Bears have been playing with house money since they clinched a winning season.  To be honest I'm more excited about 2026.  Caleb and the offense, with this season under their belts, are going nuclear in 2026, I've no doubt.  I believe the Bears will able to fix the defense and, at least, get it to an average level defense coupling it with an overpowering offense, that'll translate to double digit wins.

Edited January 5 by gflore34

[Banedon]

I'm not a fan of that "playing with house money" cliche.  They're in the playoffs and there's no guarantee they'll be back anytime soon, no matter how rosy things might look at the moment.  Win now.

[gflore34]

22 minutes ago, Banedon said:

I'm not a fan of that "playing with house money" cliche.  They're in the playoffs and there's no guarantee they'll be back anytime soon, no matter how rosy things might look at the moment.  Win now.

Defense is too beat up and terrible for winning now to happen. They may get by the Packers and that'll be it, at some point the defense will need to make a stop and this current defense is incapable.  Speaking of the defense, does anyone know the last time it forced a three and out?  Was it the game against Cleveland?

Edited January 5 by gflore34

[Wilson A2000]

1 hour ago, Banedon said:

Johnson did say the game plan for the Lions was pretty simple....so you can take that as either it was too simple, and holding cards close to the vest, or that it's pretty bad that a simple game plan couldn't be executed by the offense.

Ben was asked if he held back yesterday and he said no. He seemed genuinely pissed off. 
 

I’ve seen a couple of books that have the Bears currently as slight favorites. 

[Derwood]

Turns out the Bears have the hardest SOS in the league next year

Edited January 5 by Derwood

[Wilson A2000]

4 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Defense is too beat up and terrible for winning now to happen. They may get by the Packers and that'll be it, at some point the defense will need to make a stop and this current defense is incapable.  Speaking of the defense, does anyone know the last time it forced a three and out?  Was it the game against Cleveland?

Yes it was. They did have six 3 and outs that game. 

[gflore34]

17 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Yes it was. They did have six 3 and outs that game. 

So, come Saturday, it'll be a month since they had a three and out, that's really bad.   If the Bears win the toss on Saturday they should take the ball, if not, they almost surely will be down by 3 or 7 on their first possession.  That's been a big part of the problem with the Packers always playing from behind. 

[Brian707]

26 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

 

I’ve seen a couple of books that have the Bears currently as slight favorites. 

Yeah some Bears -1 some Bears +1. If I had to guess I think come kickoff the Packers will be favorites -2 or -2.5

[Wilson A2000]

8 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

So, come Saturday, it'll be a month since they had a three and out, that's really bad.   If the Bears win the toss on Saturday they should take the ball, if not, they almost surely will be down by 3 or 7 on their first possession.  That's been a big part of the problem with the Packers always playing from behind. 

But the Bears can’t score in the first half, so they might as well push their possessions into the second half

[Banedon]

52 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Turns out the Bears have the hardest SOS in the league next year

Yeah but...that changes so much.  Projected strength of schedule for 2025 during preseason:



And here's where the actual strength of schedule ended up as of about 2 weeks ago...

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, Banedon said:

Yeah but...that changes so much.  Projected strength of schedule for 2025 during preseason:



And here's where the actual strength of schedule ended up as of about 2 weeks ago...

With an improving offense and a better defense I don't care how potentially tough or easy the schedule may be.

[jersey cubs fan]

At the risk of starting the offseason thread already, that SOS is because their own division is good and they face Philly, Jax and Seattle. I’m guessing two of three take a step back next year.  The entire division plays AFC east which they can each take 2/3 of 4 from, and the NFC south, which they can sweep. Their division champ opponents are all relatively beatable. 
 

[Old Style]

We have to win this first one, at least. Losing a second time to the Packers, this one ending the season, would be excruciating to endure the whole offseason. 

[gflore34]

14 minutes ago, Old Style said:

We have to win this first one, at least. Losing a second time to the Packers, this one ending the season, would be excruciating to endure the whole offseason. 

I agree, just need to get this one.

[BigSlick]

This is, objectively but not emotionally, the best match up in the first round the Bears could hope for. Emotionally, of course, it would be excruciating to lose in the playoffs to the Packers....again. However, it does allow for the tantalizing opportunity to beat them and shovel some dirt on the decades-long ownage the Packers have had over Chicago. 

The Bears D is just terrible. On Bernstein's podcast they mentioned that aside from defensive plays that result in turnovers (which of course cannot and shouldn't be set aside from an analysis of the D as a whole) the Bears D is last of all NFL teams in EPA per play. The turnovers have kept the Bears D in the mid-20s, they're the life support that allow the Bears to even be competitive. Without them, they can't stop anyone, aside from completely inept offenses like the Browns. They'll need a couple, at minimum, to win on Saturday. 

I'm as pissed as anyone about how lifeless the Bears offense was to start the game against the Lions, but the Bears D is so bad it limits how many possessions we even get. The Bears once again only had 2 drives before the two minute warning on Sunday. They may keep the opposing offense out of the end zone and limit the damage, but like the Packers game, the defense gives up 10+ play drives of 5, 6, 7 minutes and you just don't get the ball. It means the offense has to play complete mistake free football to be competitive. They haven't done that. They almost did it against the Niners. They almost did it yesterday in just the second half. They can't keep doing it. 

My biggest hope is that the defense is able to do just enough to limit the damage and the Bears offense with Rome and Trapilo back, comes out of the gate just even a little bit hotter. Give us a game, give us a victory, and come what may. 

[Banedon]

Ben seems just as pissed off today as he was yesterday.  Nothing really new other than just that he clearly in a horsefeathers mood after that game.  I don't think there's gonna be a lot of fun being had at Halas this week...and I think the team is gonna adopt the attitude of their coach and play with a chip on their shoulder.
 

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Something that really hasn't been brought up but my dad just texted it to me: Caleb is the first Bears QB since 78 to start all of the games over a 2 year span. His durability has been remarkable. Bagent has thrown 6 passes in those seasons. We got ourselves an Ironman potentially.

[Wilson A2000]

38 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Something that really hasn't been brought up but my dad just texted it to me: Caleb is the first Bears QB since 78 to start all of the games over a 2 year span. His durability has been remarkable. Bagent has thrown 6 passes in those seasons. We got ourselves an Ironman potentially.

He’s pretty good at not taking big hits, especially this year

[SpongeWorthy]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Something that really hasn't been brought up but my dad just texted it to me: Caleb is the first Bears QB since 78 to start all of the games over a 2 year span. His durability has been remarkable. Bagent has thrown 6 passes in those seasons. We got ourselves an Ironman potentially.

thick lower half, yoga instructor since like middle school, he's been trained well in that regard

[Wilson A2000]

Mully from 670 had an interesting nugget today. Every single QB in the playoffs this season has a losing record on the road in playoff games. Home field advantage is really important.

[Banedon]

Apparently all of the NFL broadcast networks wanted Bears-Packers and the NFL chose Amazon. 

https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports-media/2026/01/05/why-nfl-playoffs-green-bay-packers-chicago-bears-nfc-wild-card-game-prime-video-cbs-espn-abc-fox-nbc?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-cst-sports

 

[Wilson A2000]

 

[NorthsideAvenger]

On 1/5/2026 at 12:55 PM, Old Style said:

We have to win this first one, at least. Losing a second time to the Packers, this one ending the season, would be excruciating to endure the whole offseason. 

It would not be the first time the Bears playoffs ended in a loss to the Packers. With that said, I think the Bears will win. 

Edited January 6 by NorthsideAvenger