Winter Doldrums Thread

[chopsx9]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

No. The correct interpretation is that they are in no way accurate and no one should pay any attention to them except in a general way to see a ballpark number that may or may not happen based on variables that are not controlled for, ever, no matter how much they "tweak" the system every year. 

Thank God somebody said it.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Backtobanks said:

I didn't say that BTV was the absolute guide in making a trade, but I was just showing BobbyD3 that there is enough trade value to get Lopez or Lopez and Buxton if both sides were willing.  I didn't even use some of our top prospects like Wiggins, Rojas, etc. To get what we want/need, Hoyer is going to have to overpay in cash or prospects which is why he's not going to do it.

Oh, I know. And I agree with you. Cubs do have enough to do whatever they want. Both in money and prospect assets. The issue is using it. 

Edited January 4 by Rcal10

[Dfan25]

 

[Hortonhearsawho]

1 minute ago, Dfan25 said:

 

Another target that we are going to miss out on. 

[Jason Ross]

 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 

Right now I am very disappointed in the Cubs FO. I don’t believe they will get anyone of substance. 

[mk49]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Right now I am very disappointed in the Cubs FO. I don’t believe they will get anyone of substance. 

Sadly, I feel the same.  If that's the case, our big bat signing would be Austin.  Our biggest offseason move would be Maton.  I'm still hoping I'm wrong, and they actually do something, though.

[Derwood]

"In touch with" lol

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, mk49 said:

Sadly, I feel the same.  If that's the case, our big bat signing would be Austin.  Our biggest offseason move would be Maton.  I'm still hoping I'm wrong, and they actually do something, though.

I honestly think E. Suarez is going to be who they get because he drops to them. He ends up with a short opt out deal. He seems most likely to fall through the cracks. And he doesn’t come with a QO issue, so Cubs might be interested. 

[TarzanJoeWallis]

36 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 

Just being in touch makes them seem so directionless. Just a year ago they gave him away after they were shocked he picked up his option (even though they claimed they weren’t). They trade three guys for Tucker and now are touching base with Bellinger again. I think they were also shocked that Shota accepted the QO (even though they claim otherwise) and that has screwed them up this offseason. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

Just being in touch makes them seem so directionless. Just a year ago they gave him away after they were shocked he picked up his option (even though they claimed they weren’t). They trade three guys for Tucker and now are touching base with Bellinger again. I think they were also shocked that Shota accepted the QO (even though they claim otherwise) and that has screwed them up this offseason. 

I don't really believe Shota and the QO has changed much. I think we all know the Cubs are careful with contracts and money and valuation. It doesn't make any sense that everyone thought immediately "hey I bet he takes it" and the Cubs were got-caught. As well, the Cubs have over $30m under the LT still; the extra few million over his former salary isn't doing a lot of work here. 

[Rcal10]

I don’t think the Cubs were shocked Shota took the QO. TBH, I am shocked they offered it to him. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think the Cubs were shocked Shota took the QO. TBH, I am shocked they offered it to him. 

I'm not. If they didn't think he was decent value on a one year contract, they wouldn't have offered it. 

The same guy who did a big article on Imai showed how good Shota can still be; it comes down to his velocity. If the Cubs feel his velo was down due to his injury, and they can get it back, there's a good pitcher there, especially on one year. It also gives them the flexibility if it isn't to move on from him next year. 

The QO makes sense.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

18 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't really believe Shota and the QO has changed much. I think we all know the Cubs are careful with contracts and money and valuation. It doesn't make any sense that everyone thought immediately "hey I bet he takes it" and the Cubs were got-caught. As well, the Cubs have over $30m under the LT still; the extra few million over his former salary isn't doing a lot of work here. 

That’s fair. But I stand by assessment that returning to Bellinger a year after giving him away and trading three guys for a player in the final year of his contract, is directionless. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I mean we're talking about Boras's most famous mouthpiece proclaiming the most mild possible interest, I would not use that to make any inferences about how Jed is operating relative to plan.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I mean we're talking about Boras's most famous mouthpiece proclaiming the most mild possible interest, I would not use that to make any inferences about how Jed is operating relative to plan.

Cubs aren’t getting any of the main guys left unless they drop. They also aren’t going to give up enough to get a proven young controlled starting pitcher. Such a sucky way to run a major market team. 

[mk49]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

The same guy who did a big article on Imai showed how good Shota can still be; it comes down to his velocity. If the Cubs feel his velo was down due to his injury, and they can get it back, there's a good pitcher there, especially on one year. It also gives them the flexibility if it isn't to move on from him next year. 

I want to read the article on Shota.  Where can I find it?

[Jason Ross]

Just now, mk49 said:

I want to read the article on Shota.  Where can I find it?

 

[mk49]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 

Thank you.  I remember when he came over, he threw some 93~94mph, and he had like less than  1.00 ERA for a while.  I want the 2024 version of Shota back.😄  BTW, Ohtani just can't hit Shota.  I think he's been 0 for 11 or something like that against Shota.

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 

Thanks for giving me some hope Jason. Been a frustrating off season. At least the Shota write up is positive. 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Thanks for giving me some hope Jason. Been a frustrating off season. At least the Shota write up is positive. 

It's been frustratingly slow, but this is what happens when Boras controls the market. 

I still have hope that the Cubs are shooting higher than some people think they are with reports like Matt's that the Cubs were trying to get Imai+Bregman. That would suggest more money than we gave them credit for. So maybe good things still to come. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It's been frustratingly slow, but this is what happens when Boras controls the market. 

I still have hope that the Cubs are shooting higher than some people think they are with reports like Matt's that the Cubs were trying to get Imai+Bregman. That would suggest more money than we gave them credit for. So maybe good things still to come. 

I don’t have confidence in that. I think, if they do get a higher end bat it will be because his market cratered. Probably E. Suarez. Then maybe a Cassie for a young pitcher trade. Similar to Rizzo for Cashner long ago. 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t have confidence in that. I think, if they do get a higher end bat it will be because his market cratered. Probably E. Suarez. Then maybe a Cassie for a young pitcher trade. Similar to Rizzo for Cashner long ago. 

I mean, here's the thing and it can only be one of these:

1. Matt's report is wrong.

2. The Cubs believe they could sign Imai and Bregman for under $35m together, or by trading Hoerner.

3. The Cubs have more funds than we think available because those two will cost more than the LT. 

I'm not telling you what will, or won't happen. But the reality is, if Matt isn't wrong, then #3 is probably the more realistic option. 

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I mean, here's the thing and it can only be one of these:

1. Matt's report is wrong.

2. The Cubs believe they could sign Imai and Bregman for under $35m together, or by trading Hoerner.

3. The Cubs have more funds than we think available because those two will cost more than the LT. 

I'm not telling you what will, or won't happen. But the reality is, if Matt isn't wrong, then #3 is probably the more realistic option. 

Matt might be right, and maybe the Cubs can spend more money. But that still doesn’t mean they won’t back out when numbers end up higher than they think they should be. I mean, they didn’t get Imai. So if the plan was getting him, they didn’t. Instead they backed away. I also think the Bregman ship sailed if Boston really offered 5/$160M. They can still salvage the off season. Sit down with Bichette and get the deal done. Then package Cassie with one of Beown, Wicks or Assad and if need be add Long or Triantos and get the best controlled starting pitcher they can get. Or, if money isn’t an issue sign Valdez instead . I have a hard time believing any of that will happen. 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Matt might be right, and maybe the Cubs can spend more money. But that still doesn’t mean they won’t back out when numbers end up higher than they think they should be. I mean, they didn’t get Imai. So if the plan was getting him, they didn’t. Instead they backed away. I also think the Bregman ship sailed if Boston really offered 5/$160M. They can still salvage the off season. Sit down with Bichette and get the deal done. Then package Cassie with one of Beown, Wicks or Assad and if need be add Long or Triantos and get the best controlled starting pitcher they can get. Or, if money isn’t an issue sign Valdez instead . I have a hard time believing any of that will happen. 

Sure. Like I said, I didn't tell you what will or won't happen. But if there's more money there than we think there is, that should give us a rosier picture of what could happen than some are willing to have right now. 

He made it clear the Cubs aren't in on Valdez and won't be however.

But if Imai + Bregman money was there, Bichette + Gallen money would probably be available. And I think that'd be a fun way to wrap up the offseason as a possibility. Probably won't happen, but I think before that article, none of us expected there to be that much wiggle room above the LT, too.