Winter Meetings Thread

[Tryptamine]

Watch the Orioles trade for Edward Cabrera now that Coby Mayo has no place to play.

Edited December 10, 2025 by Tryptamine

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

To your first point: I consider the defense an important and basically totally separate part of the overall quality of the team. They're going to, on the whole, raise the results of any pitcher, good or bad, over their expected results. That's a credit to Dansby, Nico, PCA, and the overall rest of the team there. It should absolutely be considered as part of a 'how good is the team' conversation, but I think it's somewhat in line with my point that like: between the defense, and Hottovy, and Zombro, we don't need elite pitching skill sets to get elite pitching results.

Spending on semi-elite pitching, which, we're down to 4(?) names now, and not just more or less locking in as much offense as possible and avoiding either the tale of two halfs Shaw question or the 'it turns out everyone sucks in their first 400 PAs' question with Caissie or Ballesteros seems backwards when you could make one or more of those guys redundant and use them as currency to a much bigger group of pitchers (above average to semi-elite, not getting paid free agent money). 

I'll look forward to your article. Curious on if you think this is an org thing, ie something that can be taught, or if it's just the profile of the pitcher they've been targeting. Boyd has been good in his career at generating pop ups, Taillon was terrible in 2024, the Cubs as a team were like 21st in baseball in 2024. Don't want to jump it though.

For the bullpen....I've stopped trying to figure out how to fix it. We've got an elite pitching development system and theoretically an elite manager to make those decisions. The rest is just sample size/sequencing noise. 

Basically, pop-outs and cut-ride fastballs correlate. The Cubs are the masters of the cut-ride fastball. I think it's institutional, Colin Rea turned into an elite pop-out getter last year after the switch in arm angle and pitch mix. They target pronators - people who get more horizontal action as well. And they were 2nd in pop-ups last year; something I don't think is an accident when you break it down. 

I don't think the Cubs necessarily taught Boyd the pop-up, but his arm angle is cut-ride heavy. But I do think they targeted Boyd because of it. If that makes sense? 

Because the pitch moves and misses barrels, hitters tend to just miss them. It's that late ride movement that messes with the bat. I think their usage of the seam-shifted wake stuff, as well, like Horton plays into it.

I think 2025 is probably the start of what Zombro likes; and I think the cut-ride fastball is it. They used it more in MiLB than any other team. So I think moving forward, we should expect more popups. 

(who knew they were so fun!?) 

[Outshined_One]

Imai also makes a ton of sense as a guy who won't cost the Cubs QO compensation in the same way King would.  If they want to pursue Bregman and King (I know, I know), they'd have to fork over their 2026 2nd and 3rd round picks and $1m from the international bonus pool, and I just get the sense that they're trying to shore up the lower levels of the farm since things don't look super great below AAA.  Imai at least gives them some flexibility without having to strip mine the farm.

[BKHoo]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Watch the Orioles trade for Edward Cabrera now that Coby Mayo has no place to play.

You’d think Mayo would be on the block now for sure. 

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Imai also makes a ton of sense as a guy who won't cost the Cubs QO compensation in the same way King would.  If they want to pursue Bregman and King (I know, I know), they'd have to fork over their 2026 2nd and 3rd round picks and $1m from the international bonus pool, and I just get the sense that they're trying to shore up the lower levels of the farm since things don't look super great below AAA.  Imai at least gives them some flexibility without having to strip mine the farm.

But at least they'll be getting 1 pick back because they have no interest in retaining Tucker.

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, BKHoo said:

You’d think Mayo would be on the block now for sure. 

He's unplayable at 3B, they already have Basallo who will mostly man DH, Alonso will be at 1B. He's as blocked as blocked gets.

[Outshined_One]

Just now, Cuzi said:

But at least they'll be getting 1 pick back because they have no interest in retaining Tucker.

Correct, although they wouldn't get the international bonus pool money back if they signed a QO guy,

My point is that Imai gives them flexibility in the market.  If they sign Imai and trade for a bat, they'd go into the next draft with their picks intact (along with an extra pick) and also would have the full international bonus pool at their disposal.  Alternatively, they could sign Imai and Bregman (I know, I know, PTR) and only get hit with the QO penalty once.

I'm also not particularly thrilled with the state of the farm below AAA or with the state of pitching on the farm in general, so I'm wondering if there might be a priority placed on building up the farm next year in advance of the upcoming lockout.  Losing picks and bonus pool money would undercut those efforts.

[Tryptamine]

Watch Baltimore is going to add Ryan Helsley, Pete Alonso, Framber Valdez and Edward Cabrera. I'd be ridiculously jealous.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, 17 Seconds said:

155m. was he expected to get that? holy moly

Alonso contract sucks, and so does the Schwarber one.  Either the price of players has suddenly increased significantly or they're smoking crack.

[Cuzi]

Just now, Stratos said:

Alonso contract sucks, and so does the Schwarber one.  Either the price of players has suddenly increased significantly or they're smoking crack.

If you go by Fangraphs FA tracker, pretty much everyone is beating the projections.

Lots of fear going around over the potential lock out...

[Jason Ross]

Cubs pass on Rule 5 pick. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Jason Ross said:

Cubs pass on Rule 5 pick. 

They have like 8000 roster spots....

[Stratos]

4 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

If you go by Fangraphs FA tracker, pretty much everyone is beating the projections.

Lots of fear going around over the potential lock out...

How would the potential lockout make prices go up?  Honest question

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

They have like 8000 roster spots....

Listen, I'm shocked. Nothing is more Jed-coded than a free shot at an upside arm and they didn't take it.

[squally1313]

17 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Basically, pop-outs and cut-ride fastballs correlate. The Cubs are the masters of the cut-ride fastball. I think it's institutional, Colin Rea turned into an elite pop-out getter last year after the switch in arm angle and pitch mix. They target pronators - people who get more horizontal action as well. And they were 2nd in pop-ups last year; something I don't think is an accident when you break it down. 

I don't think the Cubs necessarily taught Boyd the pop-up, but his arm angle is cut-ride heavy. But I do think they targeted Boyd because of it. If that makes sense? 

Because the pitch moves and misses barrels, hitters tend to just miss them. It's that late ride movement that messes with the bat. I think their usage of the seam-shifted wake stuff, as well, like Horton plays into it.

I think 2025 is probably the start of what Zombro likes; and I think the cut-ride fastball is it. They used it more in MiLB than any other team. So I think moving forward, we should expect more popups. 

(who knew they were so fun!?) 

Very cool stuff, looking forward to it. King appears pretty good at it (14.1% since 2024, 14th out of 185 starters with 100 or more innings in that span). But so does, say, Joe Ryan. And if it's something we can teach, maybe you don't need someone already in that mold. As an aside, six pitchers who show up in the bottom/worst 21 spots of that list? Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, Justin Steele, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, MacKenzie Gore. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Jason Ross said:

Listen, I'm shocked. Nothing is more Jed-coded than a free shot at an upside arm and they didn't take it.

I'm legit baffled. If ever there was a time to take one, this was it. There's so many spots to fill,

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

How would the potential lockout make prices go up?  Honest question

Let me answer with another question.

Do you think I'm being serious with the "fear of a lockout" or I'm mocking the mindset of the Cubs wanting to keep the slate clean because, "The sky is falling, there may be a salary cap coming!"?

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

I'm legit baffled. If ever there was a time to take one, this was it. There's so many spots to fill,

Same. I think if you told me to rank things that would surprise me, which would include outlandish things like "The Cubs resign Kyle Tucker to a 10 year market value contract" I still might put "The Cubs elect to not select a P in the Rule-5 draft with 9 available 40-man-slots" as the most surprising. 

I guess they have a plan for those 9 spots that doesn't include a Rule 5 guy. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Didnt have the funds to make a pick for the rule 5 unfortunately 

[chibears55]

27 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm legit baffled. If ever there was a time to take one, this was it. There's so many spots to fill,

Read that they might of had a team pick someone early in draft to set up a trade with them, so we'll see if that happened.

They did choose 3 guys in the minor league portion of the draft.

RHP Adam Stones from Yankees

RHP Zane Mills from Cardinals 

3B Devin Ortiz from Padres

[Tryptamine]

Damn, not a single Cub was taken in either portion of the rule 5. I wonder when the last time that happened was?

[Tryptamine]

Just now, chibears55 said:

Read that they might of had a team pick someone early in draft to set up a trade with them, so we'll see if that happened.

They did choose 3 guys in the minor league portion of the draft.

RHP Adam Stones from Yankees

RHP Zane Mills from Cardinals 

3B Devin Ortiz from Padres

Stone was a deep deep deep dive. Undrafted FA in '22, Threw 20 innings in A ball at age 24 to some pretty terrible results. I'm interested to hear what the appeal was.

Ortiz too looks entirely unappealing, so I'm intrigued to know why. He's going to be 27 by opening day.

[Jason Ross]

 

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Read that they might of had a team pick someone early in draft to set up a trade with them, so we'll see if that happened.

They did choose 3 guys in the minor league portion of the draft.

RHP Adam Stones from Yankees

RHP Zane Mills from Cardinals 

3B Devin Ortiz from Padres

That would have likely come out by now. They almost assuredly haven't selected or traded for anyone.

[chibears55]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Stone was a deep deep deep dive. Undrafted FA in '22, Threw 20 innings in A ball at age 24 to some pretty terrible results. I'm interested to hear what the appeal was.

Ortiz too looks entirely unappealing, so I'm intrigued to know why. He's going to be 27 by opening day.

Saw Ortiz was listed as a reliever too, maybe they're gonna work on his pitching 🤷‍♂️