2025-2026 Offseason Top Prospects Lists

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA updated their top 30s to include IFAs. This was also their first update after Caissie and Cristian Hernández were traded.

The new additions are Johan Geraldo at 15th and Jaims Martínez 24th.

[Bertz]

Cubs 18th. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47684217/2026-mlb-prospect-rankings-farm-systems-kiley-mcdaniel-brewers-guardians-pirates-dodgers-mets#chc

Kiley McDaniel has his rankings as well. and he has them 25th.  That feels low, probably frankly the wide difference in Alcantara. but it's a good writeup

Quote

 

The Cubs recently traded top 100 prospect Owen Caissie to the Marlins in the package for Edward Cabrera and Cade Horton. Matt Shaw graduated last season, with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks losing eligibility the year before that. And acquiring Michael Busch two years ago cost Chicago the now-40th-ranked prospect in baseball in Zyhir Hope along with 128th-ranked Jackson Ferris.

So, there doesn't need to be a weakness in scouting to explain why the Cubs have a lower farm ranking this year. I liked their haul from the 2025 draft: Ethan Conrad, Kane Kepley, Josiah Hartshorn and Kaleb Wing. And I think Moises Ballesteros and Jaxon Wiggins should make a real impact on the 2026 big league team, as well.

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

18th seems generous.

25th might be a little low but seems more accurate.

[craig]

Should probably drop near 30th by end of season, no?  Moises will graduate; probably Wiggins will either graduate or bust; and likewise Alcantara should either graduate or bust.  Ranking could be *really* low.  But as Kiley mentions, if guys are productively graduating and become good contributors, or else are getting traded for good value (Alcantara, perhap?), that doesn't reflect poorly on the D+D.  

But yeah, it sure would be nice to see some breakouts to up value.  Conrad, lets go!  

[mul21]

22 minutes ago, craig said:

Should probably drop near 30th by end of season, no?  Moises will graduate; probably Wiggins will either graduate or bust; and likewise Alcantara should either graduate or bust.  Ranking could be *really* low.  But as Kiley mentions, if guys are productively graduating and become good contributors, or else are getting traded for good value (Alcantara, perhap?), that doesn't reflect poorly on the D+D.  

But yeah, it sure would be nice to see some breakouts to up value.  Conrad, lets go!  

I'd be shocked if that happens unless last year's draft class completely falls on their face collectively.  Development from that group should fill in some of the gaps in AA by the end of the season.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

27 minutes ago, craig said:

Should probably drop near 30th by end of season, no?  Moises will graduate; probably Wiggins will either graduate or bust; and likewise Alcantara should either graduate or bust.  Ranking could be *really* low.  But as Kiley mentions, if guys are productively graduating and become good contributors, or else are getting traded for good value (Alcantara, perhap?), that doesn't reflect poorly on the D+D.  

But yeah, it sure would be nice to see some breakouts to up value.  Conrad, lets go!  

What's nice about Kiley's rankings is he bases it on a concrete FV = $$ formula so you can play around with specific changes to the list and see what happens. If you assume Ballesteros graduates with no other changes anywhere, the Cubs would fall from 25th to 28th in Kiley's rankings (ahead of only Houston and San Diego, the only two teams that don't have a top 100 prospect).

But this obviously assumes that not only do the Cubs not have any breakouts but also other teams don't have breakouts/graduations/flameouts.

The Cubs pushed for a lot of big league success by trading good prospects in 2025-2026 so hopefully this is the bottom point of the farm and they'll start improving now that they don't have many more Cam Smiths, Owen Caissies, Zyhir Hopes and Jackson Ferrises to trade away. And the guy who has a streak of four consecutive first rounders making it to the bigs from 2021-2024 is still in charge of the Cubs draft which helps me think there's solid chance someone from Conrad, Kepley and Harsthorn breaks out in 2026.

[craig]

Who might be some guys you might imagine as candidates to jump in value?  Including some guys who aren't going to jump into "star" level, but who might just improve into decent chance to be a useful major leaguer?  

1. Wiggins and Alcantara obviously.  Wiggins could be star, and if healthy Alcantara could somehow sustain or improve on his 2nd-half hitting, he's still got a chance to become a good starter, maybe even for us.  
2. Southisene.  Obviously no power => no star.  But 2nd half, had a >,450 OBP, .800-ish OPS, 24/4 SB/CS, >1 BB/K, and hit up near .300.  That was crummy A- pitching,, so he might get devoured by South Bend level pitching.  But a lot of boys get stronger at age 20; maybe his bat speed and power will grow a little bit, and he'll add some doubles and triples?  I think his defense was supposed to be good?  Would love to see a super OBP/SB guy.  
3. Mathis:  Was bad last year, and K'd too much;, but was first year and was variably hurt.  What if he shows up healthy, and actually shows a really good power bat?  Would love to see his bat look good. 
4. Kepley.  I don't think most posters like him much.  I kinda see Kepley and Southisene as similar guys, short BA/BB OBP guys who steal a lot, and are hopefully both really good defensively.  Kepley's a little older and stronger, scouts suggest he's got some anti-awful exit-velo and may hit some XBH.  But yeah, what if he can just carry the >.280BA, >.380 slug, and >.400 OBP right up through South Bend and into Knoxville?  .400-OBP guys with lots of steals and great defense, that could be a valuable guy.  
5. Rojas obviously wildcard.  Was awful at Knox, but what if with a fresh start, some physical improvement, and some skills improvements, what if he could kinda bring his South Bend hitting up to Knoxville?  
6. Neely:  what if velocity was back, health was back, and he found some control, and looked Iowa dominant again?  Won't help the prospect rankings, because if so he'll just graduate.  But would be fun to see his actual big-league value pop.  
7. Erian Rodriguez.  Not mentioned often, but has a pretty good arm, and may still have a little fill-out physical projection left?  What if his curve and change got more consistent, so that his K-rate could jump?  Could be a guy who's rated much higher after the season than he is now?  
8. Super-longshots:  Florentino, Gray, Mule.  Florentino, slim guy without big velo, so hasn't gotten much scouting buzz.  But sometimes skinny guys at 20 fill out and get stronger, and maybe he's still got some more velocity in him?  *IF* suddenly he could tweak his fastball and get both more velo AND more movement, who knows?  Athletic command pitchers with deception can just be good pitchers, who knows?  Lets get lucky.  Mule, another year from surgery, maybe with some physical maturation he can get his velocity back?  More healthy, more fastball, maybe he can throw some strikes and improve fast?  Drew Gray, injured is injured, wild is wild, so chances are probably remote.  But what if he was and stayed healthy for a while, maybe a healthy Gray could jack up the stuff, and might repeat his delivery enough to locate better and finally emerge as a real prospect?  I'm also kinda Jerzembeck interested. What if he's actually healthy, and actually is a pretty good pitcher with good stuff?  

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

I'd be shocked if that happens unless last year's draft class completely falls on their face collectively.  Development from that group should fill in some of the gaps in AA by the end of the season.

Yeah the lower levels of the farm are healthy, I don't think there's a lot of concern about backfill.  Conrad especially seems to be a pretty wide consensus pick to click.  It's that absolute void at AA that's going to understandably drag down a ranking like this.  Like if you were giving letter grades to every affiliate, it'd probably be something like this:

Iowa: B- if Alcantara starts there, C if he's in MLB

Tennesee: D (F- if god forbid anything happens to Rojas)

South Bend: B (A lineup, C pitching)

Myrtle Beach: B-/C+

You cant just handwave away Tenn, but also I think the shape of the talent distribution tells you a lot.

[craig]

Some of this discussion reflects how super-significant Conrad will be.  If he explodes, and kinda comes out of the season as a strong top-100 guy, maybe a top-50, in a sense that could kind of replace the Caissie-Moises type guys we've had in recent top-100's.  But if Conrad struggles, it could be really hard to backfill.  

[Outshined_One]

There's also an amorphous blob of hitters down in instructs/Low A who were international signings over the last 2-4 years and who appear to be rounding into shape as Guys to Watch,

It's unlikely we'll see any of them hotshot their way onto Top 50 lists this coming season, but it's easy to dream on the idea that one or two of them might have a Jefferson Rojas-like breakthrough coming.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, craig said:

Who might be some guys you might imagine as candidates to jump in value?  Including some guys who aren't going to jump into "star" level, but who might just improve into decent chance to be a useful major leaguer?  

1. Wiggins and Alcantara obviously.  Wiggins could be star, and if healthy Alcantara could somehow sustain or improve on his 2nd-half hitting, he's still got a chance to become a good starter, maybe even for us.  
2. Southisene.  Obviously no power => no star.  But 2nd half, had a >,450 OBP, .800-ish OPS, 24/4 SB/CS, >1 BB/K, and hit up near .300.  That was crummy A- pitching,, so he might get devoured by South Bend level pitching.  But a lot of boys get stronger at age 20; maybe his bat speed and power will grow a little bit, and he'll add some doubles and triples?  I think his defense was supposed to be good?  Would love to see a super OBP/SB guy.  
3. Mathis:  Was bad last year, and K'd too much;, but was first year and was variably hurt.  What if he shows up healthy, and actually shows a really good power bat?  Would love to see his bat look good. 
4. Kepley.  I don't think most posters like him much.  I kinda see Kepley and Southisene as similar guys, short BA/BB OBP guys who steal a lot, and are hopefully both really good defensively.  Kepley's a little older and stronger, scouts suggest he's got some anti-awful exit-velo and may hit some XBH.  But yeah, what if he can just carry the >.280BA, >.380 slug, and >.400 OBP right up through South Bend and into Knoxville?  .400-OBP guys with lots of steals and great defense, that could be a valuable guy.  
5. Rojas obviously wildcard.  Was awful at Knox, but what if with a fresh start, some physical improvement, and some skills improvements, what if he could kinda bring his South Bend hitting up to Knoxville?  
6. Neely:  what if velocity was back, health was back, and he found some control, and looked Iowa dominant again?  Won't help the prospect rankings, because if so he'll just graduate.  But would be fun to see his actual big-league value pop.  
7. Erian Rodriguez.  Not mentioned often, but has a pretty good arm, and may still have a little fill-out physical projection left?  What if his curve and change got more consistent, so that his K-rate could jump?  Could be a guy who's rated much higher after the season than he is now?  
8. Super-longshots:  Florentino, Gray, Mule.  Florentino, slim guy without big velo, so hasn't gotten much scouting buzz.  But sometimes skinny guys at 20 fill out and get stronger, and maybe he's still got some more velocity in him?  *IF* suddenly he could tweak his fastball and get both more velo AND more movement, who knows?  Athletic command pitchers with deception can just be good pitchers, who knows?  Lets get lucky.  Mule, another year from surgery, maybe with some physical maturation he can get his velocity back?  More healthy, more fastball, maybe he can throw some strikes and improve fast?  Drew Gray, injured is injured, wild is wild, so chances are probably remote.  But what if he was and stayed healthy for a while, maybe a healthy Gray could jack up the stuff, and might repeat his delivery enough to locate better and finally emerge as a real prospect?  I'm also kinda Jerzembeck interested. What if he's actually healthy, and actually is a pretty good pitcher with good stuff?  

Rojas was 107th in Kiley McDaniel's top 200. Conrad, Kepley and Rojas all made BA's next 20 prospects just outside their top 100. So those are the 3 most likely to prop up the system going forward and none of them are likely to graduate in-season. Hartshorn is the next most likely guy. He was ranked in the top 75 draft prospects in a few places and has the type of power that really could easily make a top 100 list. 

Those are the 4 guys who are currently in the organization and played domestically last year that I think can crack a top-100 list in 2026.

Other guys you mentioned - I'm not sure Southisene can every move up a lot in a single year because he needs to show he has the power to survive at every stop. Mathis could definitely bump up with a healthy season; he had good draft pedigree. I really liked Erian in 2024 when he was more 94-96. Last season, he was more 92-94. All that said, I think he's still a top 20 prospect in the organization. 

A few other names I think could be good breakout candidates: Cabada, Cepeda, Lumpuy, Reid and Wing. This org really needs Reid and Wing to both show something this year, the pitching is horrible behind Wiggins.

EDIT: One name Bryan Smith has mentioned to watch is 2025 draftee RHP Nate Williams.

[craig]

Yeah, two issues.  One is how guys might stack on a farm-ranking next year, the other is how the guy might eventually produce.  Southisene might become an interesting player eventually, but he's certainly not going to factor on any ranking lists or anything.  As long-term prospects, agree that Hartshorn, Wing, and Cabada might become very valuable guys eventually.  Hartshorn might end up becoming really good power/contact hitter.  But I don't imagine those three are going to factor much into media rankings?  Guys playing rookie-ball in Mesa don't fly into top-100's.  

I don't think Lumpuy will get anywhere, hope I'm wrong.  But that K-rate against bad low-A pitching, that's probably prohibitive.  

One forgotten guy who I still have hopes for is Triantos.  I think he might raise his status a little still, into a possible big-league super-utility guy.  Utility prospect will never approach top-100 again, nor factor in whether the Cubs system can rank up into top-20.  But I do think he might boost his hitting this year.  He was variably hurt again last season; I'm hoping coming in fully healthy might help, and simple reversion-to-mean might help.  Sometimes failure is drives some new adjustments.  Maybe he's just hit his ceiling, which isn't enough.  But I'm hoping that he'll bump his power game and pull-in-air a bit.  Bump his plate discipline and boost his walks some.  Bump up to a .300/.350/.450 Iowa-level guy, or better.  An .800-ish Iowa hitter is nothing special.  But in a world where Hoerner might walk or Shaw might get traded for good value after the season, perhaps next year Triantos might look ready to become a useful super-utility guy.  

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Who do you guys think is gonna be #1 in the system this time next year? Conrad?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

10 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Who do you guys think is gonna be #1 in the system this time next year? Conrad?

He's got to be the favorite. 

[Rex Buckingham]

18 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

He's got to be the favorite. 

Wiggins would be the most likely to be it if not Conrad, but hopefully he exhausts his prospect eligibility by coming up in the second half and being a major contributor for the big league team

[Post Count Padder]

1 hour ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Who do you guys think is gonna be #1 in the system this time next year? Conrad?

If he does well definitely him. Maybe Wiggins if he retains eligibility. 

[Outshined_One]

That's a fun thought exercise, actually. If we're assuming Ballesteros, Alcantara, and Wiggins all exhaust their eligibility, who behind Conrad would be the most likely to be #1 this time next season?

Rojas or Kepley if they show power? Hartshorn if he shows out? One of the international bonus babies?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I think Mo and Alcantara will def graduate, I'm not sure about Wiggins anymore. With the depth in the rotation and whatever innings limit he's on, he might still be eligible next year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

5 hours ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Wiggins would be the most likely to be it if not Conrad, but hopefully he exhausts his prospect eligibility by coming up in the second half and being a major contributor for the big league team

My thinking is that if Wiggins still has prospect eligibility, he’s battled injuries or struggled. But yeah, there’s a fun world where Wiggins does well and maintains his prospect eligibility because the Cubs have enough good, healthy big league arms.

[craig]

8 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 EDIT: One name Bryan Smith has mentioned to watch is 2025 draftee RHP Nate Williams.

That would be really nice to click on one (or more) of the 11-20 picks.  Bullpen excellence is so valuable, would be super cool if Williams clicked.  Or Spencer.  Or Knapp, all of those three are 24 (Williams) or 25.  

[Bertz]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47684227/2026-top-10-prospect-rankings-all-30-mlb-teams-kiley-mcdaniel#chc

Kiley's Top 10

1. Ballesteros

2. Wiggins

3. Rojas

4. Ramirez

5. Conrad

6. Long

7. Alcantara

8. Kepley

9. Hartshorn

10. Wing

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BP top 101:

67. Wiggins
73. Conrado
80. Ballesteros 

[JunkyardWalrus]

Has the shine on Alcantara really dimmed so much? 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Keith Law's Cubs top 20: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7012816/2026/02/04/chicago-cubs-2026-top-20-prospects-keith-law/

1. Kevin Alcántara
2. Moisés Ballesteros
3. Jefferson Rojas
4. Jaxon Wiggins
5. Ethan Conrad
6. Pedro Ramírez
7. Jostin Florentino
8. Jonathon Long
9. James Triantos
10. Owen Ayers
11. Kane Kepley
12. Josiah Hartshorn
13. Juan Cabada
14. Dominick 3eid
15. Kaleb Wing
16. Grant Kipp
17. Kade Snell
18. Koen Moreno
19. Ty Southisene
20. Pierce Coppola

[Bertz]

49 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Has the shine on Alcantara really dimmed so much? 

Keith Law had him at 41, Longenhagen sounds like he hasn't soured on him either and will likely place him similarly.  It looks like he's just becoming divisive, with IMO the driver primarily being impatience.