Shota Imanaga Expected To Decline Qualifying Offer From Cubs

[Matthew Lenz]

It sounds like the back-and-forth between the Chicago Cubs and starting pitcher Shota Imanaga will continue. After the team declined their option to extend Imanaga for a fifth year, he declined the player's option that was triggered afterward. While most thought that was the end of it, it was somewhat surprising to learn that the Cubs then tendered him a qualifying offer. 

Now, Jon Heyman of the NY Post is reporting that Shota Imanaga is expected to decline that qualifying offer. However, all is not lost, according to 670 The Score's Bruce Levine. Despite the back-and-forth that has resulted in Imanaga becoming a free agent, he cites the president of baseball operations, Jed Hoyer, in saying that there is no disconnect between the two sides. He adds that "a two-year deal of some kind could be worked out."

Limited to 25 starts in 2025, Imanaga posted a 3.73 ERA (4.86 FIP) and a 16.% K-BB rate due to a low strikeout rate. He walked opposing hitters at an impressive 4.6% clip. His fastball accrued a Run Value (RV) of -10 in 2025, after an RV of +4 in 2024. While opponents hit just .227 off the pitch, they slugged .567 and had a .356 wOBA against the offering, including an astonishing 24 home runs. This was coupled with less effective secondary offerings, particularly his split finger, whose RV was cut in half from 2024 to 2025. MLBTR predicts Imanaga to get $45 million over three years.

Do you think the Cubs should look to bring him back or pursue a higher-end starter? Let us know your comments!

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[Bertz]

This feels like a bad idea for Shota so I'd be a bit surprised if this is more than posturing.  3/$45M feels like what Shota would be looking at *without* the draft picks attached.  I'm very worried about what those picks hanging around his neck will do to his market.

But if the Cubs can get an extra 2nd rounder out of this whole situation and Shota can manage a contract elsewhere that isn't a bummer that would be a huge win-win for both sides.

Also, as much as I think Shota's a good bet for a bounceback in '26, him accepting the QO does materially lower the ceiling for this offseason IMO.  There's only so many places to upgrade this club.  The three realistic ways to make this team (on paper) not just as good as last year but better are;

- Re-sign Tucker and trade for an impact SP

- Sign an impact SP and also trade for an impact SP

- Add an impact SP and also build a bullpen of doom

If you believe the beat writers the team doesn't seem super interested in 1 or 3, so if you want a "hell yeah" type of offseason you probably need to root for Shota to head for greener pastures.

[Bertz]

FWIW Ken Rosenthal has an article this AM saying he also expects Shota (and Brandon Woodruff) to decline.  So this really seems to be happening.

[CubinNY]

If Shota goes back to Japan do the Cubs still get a pick?

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If Shota goes back to Japan do the Cubs still get a pick?

No. They only get draft compensation if an MLB team signs him. And there is a date within the offseason in which a team can sign him and the QO will go away, but it's very late.

[Rcal10]

45 minutes ago, Bertz said:

FWIW Ken Rosenthal has an article this AM saying he also expects Shota (and Brandon Woodruff) to decline.  So this really seems to be happening.

There was also talk about the Cubs working out a 2 year deal with him. So maybe he is declining because they have something else worked out. 

[ILMindState]

I can see Shota being the fallback option when they inevitably fail at signing Cease and Imai

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, ILMindState said:

I can see Shota being the fallback option when they inevitably fail at signing Cease and Imai

Except the Shota decision will be before either Cease or Imai signs. So not really a fall back. 

[ILMindState]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Except the Shota decision will be before either Cease or Imai signs. So not really a fall back. 

What decision? He's declining the QO and will sit and wait as a FA until the bigger fish sign. I don't think he's getting any big offers. 

Edited November 13, 2025 by ILMindState

[mk49]

26 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

What decision? He's declining the QO and will sit and wait as a FA until the bigger fish sign. I don't think he's getting any big offers. 

Realistically, Shota is probably looking for 2yr, $36 ~ $38M.  And, he may get that kind of offer earlier than Imai, Cease or whoever that the Cubs want.

[Bertz]

There's wiggle room on all of these, but assuming Shota declines his offer and signs elsewhere the Cubs will have 5 picks in the top 100ish.  Something close to this:

23rd 

65th

75th

76th

100th

[Rcal10]

17 hours ago, ILMindState said:

What decision? He's declining the QO and will sit and wait as a FA until the bigger fish sign. I don't think he's getting any big offers. 

Actually I thought you were trying to make sense of why the Cubs even offered Shota an offer. His decision to take it or move on will come before any failure to sign Imai or Cease. And though there is speculation he will decline it, I haven’t seen him do so yet. That decision will come first. 

[Dfan25]

As we get closer to the decision , what do you think will happen ? I know national reporters have said he is expected to decline , but I still think he takes the QO . Hopefully not .

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Dfan25 said:

As we get closer to the decision , what do you think will happen ? I know national reporters have said he is expected to decline , but I still think he takes the QO . Hopefully not .

I think he should take it. But maybe he doesn’t. 🤷

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

As we get closer to the decision , what do you think will happen ? I know national reporters have said he is expected to decline , but I still think he takes the QO . Hopefully not .

I think it makes sense for Shota to accept but all indications are he's leaving.  Maybe that will turn out to have been some weak leverage play but I'm pretty convinced.

[ILMindState]

 

[Dfan25]

Big blow to the offseason plan . It will be interesting to see what they do now . A trade for a low cost guy ( Cabrera ) or do they still go after Cease  or King ?

Edited November 18, 2025 by Dfan25

[Post Count Padder]

3 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Big blow to the offseason plan . It will be interesting to see what they do now . A trade for a low cost guy ( Cabrera ) or do they still go after Cease  or King ?

Honestly fine with it. Gives them the option to look into Cease or talk trade with other clubs. They still could pursue both avenues.

[squally1313]

Go sign a hitter, trade for a pitcher, and start telling Ben Brown, Javier Assad, and Jordan Wicks to see how hard they can throw in 20 pitch spurts. 

Or just sign Cease, I guess. But feel like I like the Imai option a little less than I did before Shota resigned, which sounds racist but really just more I want to avoid the uncertainty of a pitcher new to MLB now that we more definitively need a top end guy. 

[Bertz]

I think in a vacuum I want Shota on this contract, but ultimately it probably lowers the ceiling of the offseason which is disappointing.

[Post Count Padder]

Gleyber, Grisham, Woodruff and Shota all (so far) accepted the qualifying offers. That seems like more than usual?

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Post Count Padder said:

Gleyber, Grisham, Woodruff and Shota all (so far) accepted the qualifying offers. That seems like more than usual?

I think teams have been more aggressive in offering the QO to borderline guys the last few years.  Didn't two or three guys take it last year too?  Nick Martinez was one for sure.

[Jason Ross]

If you do want a positive; a lot of players took the QO with the fears of a potential cap or limit on spending in the future. Internally, those players are clearly of the mind they can do better the next time than this time. 

Maybe gives you a feeling on where the players feel the future of the league is going spending wise.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Makes sense, he really tanked all his value with his poor performance and really glaring red flags with his profile. 

[Hortonhearsawho]

22M flushed down the toilet that sucks.