Cubs Expected To Target Dylan Cease This Offseason

[Bertz]

It's no secret that heading into the playoffs, starting pitching was the Chicago Cubs' biggest area of concern.  Initial indications from the local writers are that impact pitching will be the biggest focus this offseason, with Dylan Cease the first specific name to hit the rumor mill via Bruce Levine.

Cease is generally considered to be one of the "Big 3" free agent starters this winter, along with Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez.  Cease's career has been marred by a good deal of inconsistency, but he's been a model of health (leads MLB in games started the past 5 years) and is one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the league (one of only 10 pitchers in 2025 to throw 100 IP and average more than 97 MPH on his fastball).  Most days, he looks the part of a prototypical ace.

While a starting pitcher set to get north of $150M is not usually what we think of for a Jed Hoyer target, the team enters 2026 with relatively few roster holes.  The Cubs also have an extensive history with Cease.  They initially drafted Dylan in 2014 (along with Kyle Schwarber and Justin Steele), and based on reporting from NorthsideBaseball's own Matt Trueblood the team had extensive conversations with the Padres around reacquiring Cease last spring.

Expect the Cubs to be tied to a wide variety of arms this winter.  But given the team's roster heading into the winter and their history with Dylan Cease, it is notable that this is the first rumor out of the chute this offseason.

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[Neuby]

Love Cease , but with  King/Bieber/Imai all available without having to lose a pick I think Jeds goes a different route.

[Rcal10]

31 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Love Cease , but with  King/Bieber/Imai all available without having to lose a pick I think Jeds goes a different route.

Why does signing King not come with losing a pick? And Cubs have given up a pick before. When they signed Swanson, I believe they lost a pick. But they got one back from Contreras. Which they will do when Tucker gets signed. I don’t think THIS YEAR losing a pick will matter.

[Neuby]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Why does signing King not come with losing a pick? And Cubs have given up a pick before. When they signed Swanson, I believe they lost a pick. But they got one back from Contreras. Which they will do when Tucker gets signed. I don’t think THIS YEAR losing a pick will matter.

I misread Kings status with the him likely opting out meaning no qualifying offer, he's going to get a QO from the padres.

[Backtobanks]

I love the off season when "experts" give "inside" information.  The Cubs are looking for TOR pitcher, Cease is a TOR pitcher, therefore Cubs are targeting Cease.

[Stratos]

The Cubs will have interest in every single quality SP this winter,  This  happens every winter, we hear about their interest in Bregman, Ohtani etc.  It means nothing until they announce a deal is made.   The Cubs don't get points for losing bids.

[gflore34]

17 hours ago, Stratos said:

The Cubs will have interest in every single quality SP this winter,  This  happens every winter, we hear about their interest in Bregman, Ohtani etc.  It means nothing until they announce a deal is made.   The Cubs don't get points for losing bids.

I know I wrote one of Cease/King will be a Cub but, I was just kidding myself.  This front office has never seriously pursued what was considered the top FA, pitcher, etc., ever.  It's always some second tier "fiscally responsible" target that's why I believe we can completely eliminate Cease or King from consideration.  It's going to be a Shane Bieber type or types we'll see the Cubs sign.

[Derwood]

29 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I know I wrote one of Cease/King will be a Cub but, I was just kidding myself.  This front office has never seriously pursued what was considered the top FA, pitcher, etc., ever.  It's always some second tier "fiscally responsible" target that's why I believe we can completely eliminate Cease or King from consideration.  It's going to be a Shane Bieber type or types we'll see the Cubs sign.

Jon Lester

[gflore34]

4 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Jon Lester

You're correct, guess I should have said Hoyer has never gone after the top FA.

[Bertz]

I'm going to be a broken record about this but an offseason for a team that just won 92 games is going to be a lot different than a team that just won 83 games.  A team that's more or less complete from the jump is going to operate differently than one with gaping holes at CF, 3B, and C.

[gflore34]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'm going to be a broken record about this but an offseason for a team that just won 92 games is going to be a lot different than a team that just won 83 games.  A team that's more or less complete from the jump is going to operate differently than one with gaping holes at CF, 3B, and C.

Isn't there clear need for pitching with swing and miss stuff?  Even, if you will, a gaping hole at pitching with regards to swing and miss stuff?

[Bertz]

18 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Isn't there clear need for pitching with swing and miss stuff?  Even, if you will, a gaping hole at pitching with regards to swing and miss stuff?

"Swing and miss stuff" isn't a position on a baseball roster so you're not really making the point you think you are.

The Cubs absolute needs for this winter are a bench bat or two and a handful of relievers (though notably not a closer).  Depending on how things shake out with Shota maybe one SP.  They have by even the most conservative estimate about $60M available to spend.

There are fewer roster holes than any offseason in the Jed era, and more resources available than any winter save maybe the '22/'23 offseason.  Not to say that the Cubs are going to have some billion dollar offseason (or even that they'll definitely go hard after Cease), but the roster lends itself to shopping pretty differently than prior winters.  Much the same way that a trip to the grocery store two days after pay day is a lot different than a trip two days before.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, gflore34 said:

I know I wrote one of Cease/King will be a Cub but, I was just kidding myself.  This front office has never seriously pursued what was considered the top FA, pitcher, etc., ever.  It's always some second tier "fiscally responsible" target that's why I believe we can completely eliminate Cease or King from consideration.  It's going to be a Shane Bieber type or types we'll see the Cubs sign.

I think they'll genuinely look to sign a good SP.  Whichever quality SP they sign we can be pretty sure based on past offseasons that they'll sign the guy whose contract offers the best bang for the buck out of the crop of pitchers they're looking at.  That's also similar to what they seemed to do with Swanson vs the other top FA SS.

Hoyer has done a great job with virtually all the SP contracts he's ever signed.  We all always want a TORP every offseason, he signs a guy like Boyd or Imanaga for far cheaper/shorter, and it usually works out very well.  With all the good SP on the market this winter he's in a good position to land someone quality on a solid contract.

 

[CubinNY]

On 10/25/2025 at 6:11 PM, Backtobanks said:

I love the off season when "experts" give "inside" information.  The Cubs are looking for TOR pitcher, Cease is a TOR pitcher, therefore Cubs are targeting Cease.

Bruce is the most inside of the inside guys, so he's giving information from Jed and his team. It's more propaganda than anything else when the dust settles and people (the usual suspects) will be saying, "I'm glad the Cubs didn't sign X player for that amount of money". 

Meanwhile, they will sign a number 2 or 3 type starter to a mid-level deal, and everyone will be happy. 

I don't see them tying up large sums of money before the strike/lockout. 

[Dfan25]

Don’t expect this to be more than if your market falls to short term with opt outs type of interest .   I think they will be heavily involved with Bieber .

[Bertz]

Pros/Cons for targeting Cease specifically:

Pros

- His high octane fastball and oodles of strikeouts are something the current staff doesn't have a lot of.  Hell even with all of the good pitchers we've had over the last 15 years I'm not sure we've had a guy like this since Wood?

- Horton and Brown have some Dylan Cease to them.  Wiggins has a ton.  We generally think of finesse guys as the "extra coach" but Cease is probably better prepared to mentor our best young arms than like Ranger Suarez is

- Longterm investments on any pitcher are fraught, but AFAIK harder throwers have softer aging curves

- Based on the Contract Crowdsourcing articles Fangraphs started launching this AM it looks like Cease is the best projected arm in this class by an ever so narrow margin

- Dude can rock a pretty killer mustache

Cons

- You're likely paying a premium for strikeouts that doesn't necessarily manifest in saved runs.  Maybe that's worth it now that you're expecting to play every October?  But you're probably going to have to give an Aaron Nola or Max Fried contract to Cease as opposed to something more like Kevin Gausman money to Shane Bieber.  You're likely going to lose a high level $/WAR calc, so you need to have conviction that some of these extracurricular rationales are valid and worthwhile

- There's some Blake Snell there when he's not on his A game, and I mean that derogatorily

- Cease's mustache success made him mistakenly think he should be a beard guy, which is where we are currently.  Some intervention is required which is a delicate convo to have while simultaneously trying to woo him

[mul21]

16 hours ago, Bertz said:

Pros/Cons for targeting Cease specifically:

Pros

- His high octane fastball and oodles of strikeouts are something the current staff doesn't have a lot of.  Hell even with all of the good pitchers we've had over the last 15 years I'm not sure we've had a guy like this since Wood?

- Horton and Brown have some Dylan Cease to them.  Wiggins has a ton.  We generally think of finesse guys as the "extra coach" but Cease is probably better prepared to mentor our best young arms than like Ranger Suarez is

- Longterm investments on any pitcher are fraught, but AFAIK harder throwers have softer aging curves

- Based on the Contract Crowdsourcing articles Fangraphs started launching this AM it looks like Cease is the best projected arm in this class by an ever so narrow margin

- Dude can rock a pretty killer mustache

Cons

- You're likely paying a premium for strikeouts that doesn't necessarily manifest in saved runs.  Maybe that's worth it now that you're expecting to play every October?  But you're probably going to have to give an Aaron Nola or Max Fried contract to Cease as opposed to something more like Kevin Gausman money to Shane Bieber.  You're likely going to lose a high level $/WAR calc, so you need to have conviction that some of these extracurricular rationales are valid and worthwhile

- There's some Blake Snell there when he's not on his A game, and I mean that derogatorily

- Cease's mustache success made him mistakenly think he should be a beard guy, which is where we are currently.  Some intervention is required which is a delicate convo to have while simultaneously trying to woo him

I guess my question is why do we see the huge delta between stuff and results?  Is it pitch sequence? Shape? Arm slot?  The fact that he has the raw stuff he does and the apparent high level understanding the Cubs pitching infrastructure possesses makes me a believer in going after him because it feels like there's still some meat on the bone that could be tapped into and he could be the next Arrietta for the Cubs.

[Bertz]

16 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I guess my question is why do we see the huge delta between stuff and results?  Is it pitch sequence? Shape? Arm slot?  The fact that he has the raw stuff he does and the apparent high level understanding the Cubs pitching infrastructure possesses makes me a believer in going after him because it feels like there's still some meat on the bone that could be tapped into and he could be the next Arrietta for the Cubs.

I think it's mostly defense?  Since he became a full time SP here are where his teams have ranked defensively

'21 - 29th

'22 - 22nd

'23 - 25th

'24 - 20th

'25 - 19th

Because his xERAs are also sparkling, so it's definitely not a hard contact thing a la Ben Brown.

I also kind of wonder how much of it is regression from his insane '22.  Like again if you look at his numbers over his 5 full seasons things have mostly evened out:

ERA - 3.72

xERA - 3.43

FIP - 3.37

xFIP- 3.65

Keeping in mind the defenses he's played in front of that's about what you'd expect.

[Rcal10]

On 10/27/2025 at 8:42 AM, CubinNY said:

Bruce is the most inside of the inside guys, so he's giving information from Jed and his team. It's more propaganda than anything else when the dust settles and people (the usual suspects) will be saying, "I'm glad the Cubs didn't sign X player for that amount of money". 

Meanwhile, they will sign a number 2 or 3 type starter to a mid-level deal, and everyone will be happy. 

I don't see them tying up large sums of money before the strike/lockout. 

Most likely you are absolutely correct. I just don’t understand why the lock out plays a part in any Cubs plans. It isn’t like the new deal will hurt them for spending too much money. We all know that isn’t going to happen. The new deal isn’t going to increase penalties for spending at a lower spending amount. And besides that, next year they have so many guys potentially leaving, they can get to whatever number they need, regardless if they sign 2 guys to high priced high year contracts this off season. And we all know that isn’t happening even without a looming lock out. This lock out scare is 100% an excuse to not spend big this off season. And it honestly has no merit at all. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Most likely you are absolutely correct. I just don’t understand why the lock out plays a part in any Cubs plans. It isn’t like the new deal will hurt them for spending too much money. We all know that isn’t going to happen. The new deal isn’t going to increase penalties for spending at a lower spending amount. And besides that, next year they have so many guys potentially leaving, they can get to whatever number they need, regardless if they sign 2 guys to high priced high year contracts this off season. And we all know that isn’t happening even without a looming lock out. This lock out scare is 100% an excuse to not spend big this off season. And it honestly has no merit at all. 

Because they expect to get better terms with the new CBA. 

[Rcal10]

36 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Because they expect to get better terms with the new CBA. 

I don’t see that happening. Not even sure what “better terms” would be. I also don’t see how it affects guys they already signed. I seriously doubt contracts will go down.I honestly see it as one big excuse. Of course, then after the lock out it will be years of complaining of lost revenue, so they can’t spend money. Then, once they ride that excuse a few years a new CBA will be coming. Rinse and repeat!!!! Different BS every year, but same result. Won’t spend like a large market. 

[CubinNY]

22 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t see that happening. Not even sure what “better terms” would be. I also don’t see how it affects guys they already signed. I seriously doubt contracts will go down.I honestly see it as one big excuse. Of course, then after the lock out it will be years of complaining of lost revenue, so they can’t spend money. Then, once they ride that excuse a few years a new CBA will be coming. Rinse and repeat!!!! Different BS every year, but same result. Won’t spend like a large market. 

The Ricketts, Reinsdorf, the Steinbrenner brothers, and several other owners expect this round to focus on centralized revenue sharing from media markets and better cost certainty for the teams. They are going to hammer the collapse of the RSNs as a means to introduce a harder cap, but not a true salary cap, as they don't want to open their books to the players. They are going to talk about the disparity in payroll as if it's the players' fault.  

If they get what they want, players the Cubs like to target will see their market value dry up. It's already happening to some extent, and it's only going to get worse. 

The strategy is to "keep the books clean" so they can target the same types of players and pay them less than they would under the pre-CBA agreement.  It obviously does not affect the players currently under contract. But someone like Ian Happ is going to see his earning potential diminished in FA (if they get what they want). 

[Tryptamine]

I don't expect any large contracts signed prior to what will almost definitely be a work stoppage in 2027 which is why I never had any real faith in them resigning Tucker to begin with. They'll offer large 1 or 2 year deals with opt outs but nothing that will actually draw in the premium talent. 

[Rcal10]

6 hours ago, CubinNY said:

The Ricketts, Reinsdorf, the Steinbrenner brothers, and several other owners expect this round to focus on centralized revenue sharing from media markets and better cost certainty for the teams. They are going to hammer the collapse of the RSNs as a means to introduce a harder cap, but not a true salary cap, as they don't want to open their books to the players. They are going to talk about the disparity in payroll as if it's the players' fault.  

If they get what they want, players the Cubs like to target will see their market value dry up. It's already happening to some extent, and it's only going to get worse. 

The strategy is to "keep the books clean" so they can target the same types of players and pay them less than they would under the pre-CBA agreement.  It obviously does not affect the players currently under contract. But someone like Ian Happ is going to see his earning potential diminished in FA (if they get what they want). 

This is where I have questions. If the new CBA is going to do this why the hell would the players ever agree to it? I don’t see any way a new deal will cut pay to players. They may say this is why they don’t want to tie anyone up long term. I agree they will say that. But I think it is complete BS. Players are not going to agree to this. 

[CubinNY]

17 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

This is where I have questions. If the new CBA is going to do this why the hell would the players ever agree to it? I don’t see any way a new deal will cut pay to players. They may say this is why they don’t want to tie anyone up long term. I agree they will say that. But I think it is complete BS. Players are not going to agree to this. 

It's not black and white. They will offer players concessions on retirement and increased revenue sharing, likely including more playoff money, etc. 

And the players are not going to agree to it, which is why everyone thinks there will be a work stoppage. The top players will always receive substantial compensation, but it's the second and third-tier players who will be squeezed.