[Doubleheader 8/19/25] Brewers (Patrick) vs Cubs (Boyd): 1:20pm ; Brewers (Woodruff) vs Cubs (Taillon): 7:05pm

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, Papa Cub said:

Instead of quoting others - please share your expertise as to why they win games. I for one, would love to hear your analysis- not quoting other people with your sarcasm. Offer your version as to what they do differently or what the Cubs are or nate not doing. I would like to hear your thoughts. 

My cynical, but somewhat honest attempt: On May 24th the Brewers were 25-28. That was right before their first long winning streak, and since then they've gone 54-17. Over that stretch, they have

• very good pitching. 4th in K rate, 12th in walk rate, 8th in GB% (Cubs: 28th, 1st, 20th)
• very good offense: 5th in BB rate, 4th in K rate, 13th in ISOP, 1st in baserunning (Cubs: 18th, 6th, 12th, 6th)
• very good defense: 3rd in FG rating for defense (Cubs: 4th)

High level analysis of stuff mostly in their control. Very good team all around. Elite in seemingly nothing, and outside of K rate I don't see a whole lot that would separate them from the Cubs. But then:

• Offensive BABIP: 1st (by ten points over second). (Cubs: 29th, 50 points behind)
• Defensive BABIP: 2nd (Cubs: 1st)
• Strand Rate: 1st (Cubs: 6th)

Very good overall baseball and absolutely elite 'luck' performance will get you historical runs. 

Edit: To clarify/reiterate, these rankings are just over this historic Brewers run. Bringing in full season numbers would be obviously more generous to the Cubs and less generous to the Brewers.

Edited August 19, 2025 by squally1313

[I owned a Suzuki]

The Brewers are a team full of prime Matt Carpenters who can run and field.

[Cubbies1996]

Taillon’s going to just have to throw 7 innings tonight, at this rate, no matter what. 

[Jason Ross]

So that Caissie guy looks legit

(I should have had a little more faith in his initial call after being such a Caissie stan for years)

[Derwood]

If we use Keller/Thielbar/Palencia in this game, we're basically FUBAR tonight

 

[mul21]

Hey! Someone other than Seiya gets completely screwed on a called strike 3.  I'll take it.

[Dfan25]

Got a huge break there , need all the help they can get 

[squally1313]

Just now, Derwood said:

If we use Keller/Thielbar/Palencia in this game, we're basically FUBAR tonight

 

Taillon/Wicks piggyback, also have Brasier and whatever Tom Cosgrove. Would really like to avoid Kittredge, three of the last four days already.

[squally1313]

I don't know if I've ever seen so many balls (from one team) in one game within 5 feet of the outfield lines at Wrigley. 

[UMFan83]

Nice work Thielbar!

[Hortonhearsawho]

4 minutes ago, Derwood said:

If we use Keller/Thielbar/Palencia in this game, we're basically FUBAR tonight

 

If we win the game I'll take it. 

[Hot Sauce]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

So that Caissie guy looks legit

(I should have had a little more faith in his initial call after being such a Caissie stan for years)

I hereby motion that henceforth he be referred to as the “Big Red Machine” and his walk-up song  be “Slow Chemical.”

[Dfan25]

Better hold this lead , unless they explode offensively , the entire high leverage will probably be unavailable for game 2 .

[Banedon]

5 minutes ago, Derwood said:

If we use Keller/Thielbar/Palencia in this game, we're basically FUBAR tonight

 

Gotta worry about this game first.

[mul21]

Dammit.  Stupid wind.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Man horsefeathers you you piece of horsefeathers

[Derwood]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Taillon/Wicks piggyback, also have Brasier and whatever Tom Cosgrove. Would really like to avoid Kittredge, three of the last four days already.

Pomeranz too

[squally1313]

the batted ball luck in this game is unfuckingbelievable

[Chicago Al]

Of course he caught it

[Dfan25]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I don't know if I've ever seen so many balls (from one team) in one game within 5 feet of the outfield lines at Wrigley. 

Having Wicks and Brasier available doesn’t give me much comfort . Brasier has been throwing batting practice his last 4 / 5

[mul21]

103.2 EV on the Shaw fly ball.  Ridiculous.

[Dfan25]

Wrigley field has become absolute hell for hitting HR the last couple of years . Really frustrating 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Dfan25 said:

Having Wicks and Brasier available doesn’t give me much comfort . Brasier has been throwing batting practice his last 4 / 5

Yeah Brasier seems like the next guy to be cut after all the roster movements (though Horton's blister might take them into the extra roster spots on 9/1). Maybe if tonight gets out of hand he wears it and then gets sent out to pasture.

Wicks has been very solid in AAA. I know that doesn't always translate, and hasn't for him, but when you need like 15 bullpen innings in 2 days that's about all you can hope for. 

[Derwood]

2 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Wrigley field has become absolute hell for hitting HR the last couple of years . Really frustrating 

We keep saying this, but how is it the park's fault which way the wind blows?

[mul21]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

We keep saying this, but how is it the park's fault which way the wind blows?

I don't think that was blaming the park.  He was just saying it's become much harder to hit HRs there than it used to be.