Cubs (Rea) vs Cardinals (Pallante): 8/9/25, 6:15pm

[javy knows my name]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Well, they won too. Way more comments on games the Cubs lose than ones they win. People like being negative way more than being positive. 
Even this one with a low amount of posts, the majority of them are on the announcers. Again, negative posts. 

That was an awesome game and very cathartic. Busch getting hot at the top of the order fixes a lot of problems quickly.

Also I'll bet that kid has zero friends. I suppose we should be grateful though; his terrible taste in heroes could have him dressed up as ICE or something 

[Jason Ross]

34 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Can someone explain to me why the Bluejays are the current leader in total fWAR with a +43 run differential? If wins correlate with runs, there’s 10 teams with a better run differential and pythag win%. This is current by the way and not projected. 
 

If Someone more knowledgeable can explanation I’d appreciate it.

fWAR is not a direct 1:1 with runs scored. fWAR is an approximation (albeit, a pretty darn good one) of total value by an individual player which attempts to take a player's offensive value, his base running value and his defensive value, while factoring in what position that player plays, and boil it down to a (usually) single digit number with one decimal point. Needless to say there is a ton going on behind the scenes here. Team fWAR is adding all of that approximate value together to equal the value of the team adding yet another layer of "behind the scenes" depth. fWAR, by definition, is attempting to determine how many added wins a player (or a team) has over the anonymous "replacement level player" Run differential is simply just adding runs scored vs runs given up. They're not really measuring the same exact thing even if they're attempting to display similar information - who is better than who. I would argue aggregate fWAR is more telling than RD, as sometimes RD can be skewed (score 20 runs against a bad Rockies team and you can see a significant bump in RD, for example) more easily. As well, most of the time the best fWAR teams are about the same as the best RD teams, so while they may be a few places off, we rarely see a team in the bottom-5 in fWAR leading in RD.

Not yelling at you for this, just thinking to the void, but it's these kinds of "gotcha games" that people play with data that gets people thinking the wrong way about it. I know you're just thinking out loud here, but when people play the "fWAR is dumb!" card. they tend to fall back on these arguments. 

[javy knows my name]

Why did MLB.tv carry the Fox broadcast last night but not others and almost certainly won't have the game tonight? Is it cable vs theoretical OTA availability? 

[Andy]

14 minutes ago, javy knows my name said:

Why did MLB.tv carry the Fox broadcast last night but not others and almost certainly won't have the game tonight? Is it cable vs theoretical OTA availability? 

I don't know where you live but MLBTV has been carrying whatever FOX game your local station isn't airing for a long time now. If your station was airing the other game yesterday then MLBTV would've had the Cubs game available.

[Geographyhater8888]

28 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

fWAR is not a direct 1:1 with runs scored. fWAR is an approximation (albeit, a pretty darn good one) of total value by an individual player which attempts to take a player's offensive value, his base running value and his defensive value, while factoring in what position that player plays, and boil it down to a (usually) single digit number with one decimal point. Needless to say there is a ton going on behind the scenes here. Team fWAR is adding all of that approximate value together to equal the value of the team adding yet another layer of "behind the scenes" depth. fWAR, by definition, is attempting to determine how many added wins a player (or a team) has over the anonymous "replacement level player" Run differential is simply just adding runs scored vs runs given up. They're not really measuring the same exact thing even if they're attempting to display similar information - who is better than who. I would argue aggregate fWAR is more telling than RD, as sometimes RD can be skewed (score 20 runs against a bad Rockies team and you can see a significant bump in RD, for example) more easily. As well, most of the time the best fWAR teams are about the same as the best RD teams, so while they may be a few places off, we rarely see a team in the bottom-5 in fWAR leading in RD.

Not yelling at you for this, just thinking to the void, but it's these kinds of "gotcha games" that people play with data that gets people thinking the wrong way about it. I know you're just thinking out loud here, but when people play the "fWAR is dumb!" card. they tend to fall back on these arguments. 

I’m not here to argue, just to learn. My previous knowledge of this is from sports reference where they use simple ranking system, it’s basically judging how good a team is by quantifying run differential and strength of schedule without the win loss component, in the off you chance you’re not familiar with it. The eye test said the Eagles were a better team than the Packers while the Packers SRS had their average MOV vs a 0 SRS by over a point, thanks to close losses vs playoff teams and running up the score vs scrub opponents. So it’s measuring the sum of a seasons and more situation based than rewarding lopsided wins or losses in isolation, if that makes sense in regards to how fWAR is calculated.

Either way the gist of it seems to be telling what we already know that the Jays have good players and are a very good team.

I’m only splitting hairs over this because I want to know exactly how it’s calculated. wRC+ is easier to grasp now that I know how wOBA is calculated and how each specific outcome at the plate is weighed exponentially.

Whats your diagnosis of PCA at the moment?

Edited August 10, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[javy knows my name]

4 minutes ago, Andy said:

I don't know where you live but MLBTV has been carrying whatever FOX game your local station isn't airing for a long time now. If your station was airing the other game yesterday then MLBTV would've had the Cubs game available.

Ohhhh got it. I'm in CO but I'm sure it wasn't a Rockies game

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m not here to argue, just to learn. My previous knowledge of this is from sports reference where they use simple ranking system, it’s basically judging how good a team is by quantifying run differential and strength of schedule without the win loss component, in the off you chance you’re not familiar with it. The eye test said the Eagles were a better team than the Packers while the Packers SRS had their average MOV vs a 0 SRS by over a point, thanks to close losses vs playoff teams and running up the score vs scrub opponents. So it’s measuring the sum of a seasons and more situation based than rewarding lopsided wins or losses in isolation, if that makes sense in regards to how fWAR is calculated.

Either way the gist of it seems to be telling what we already know that the Jays have good players and are a very good team.

 

Whats your diagnosis of PCA at the moment?

Oh I know. It's why I made sure to say you weren't doing that - it's also just a typical "gotcha!" argument I see when people want to fight you about fWAR, too! 

Yep. Usually good teams are at the top of both lists. There will always be variations, but that's okay.

PCA right now is swinging and missing too often. He's doing a better job controlling the zone, post-ASB his chase rate and his swing rate are both down...he's just a little off. His sweet-spot% is down and his zone contact is down. He's getting hittable pitches and just isn't getting them right now. Normal slump, he'll be alright. His profile of high-swing, high-power, high-chase is a volatile profile. There will be times he will be unstoppable and others when it's just not there. Good news is that even with the issues he has a 107 wRC+ post-ASB so he hasn't been a pure disaster. His walk rate has cratered however, and I think a few walks and keeping that better plate approach will help get him better pitches in the zone.

[Geographyhater8888]

20 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Oh I know. It's why I made sure to say you weren't doing that - it's also just a typical "gotcha!" argument I see when people want to fight you about fWAR, too! 

Yep. Usually good teams are at the top of both lists. There will always be variations, but that's okay.

PCA right now is swinging and missing too often. He's doing a better job controlling the zone, post-ASB his chase rate and his swing rate are both down...he's just a little off. His sweet-spot% is down and his zone contact is down. He's getting hittable pitches and just isn't getting them right now. Normal slump, he'll be alright. His profile of high-swing, high-power, high-chase is a volatile profile. There will be times he will be unstoppable and others when it's just not there. Good news is that even with the issues he has a 107 wRC+ post-ASB so he hasn't been a pure disaster. His walk rate has cratered however, and I think a few walks and keeping that better plate approach will help get him better pitches in the zone.

It also looks like he’s back to chasing and whiffing on high heat, an old habit of his.
 

The lack of pop from the top of the order is obviously the key to this slump. Has the wind blowing in at Wrigley has gotten to their heads, causing a spike in ground ball% playing a role in their slump?

When your homers are getting knocked down by the wind and ending up in gloves I’d think it’d have some effect on hitters mentally causing them to subconsciously tweak their swing path a bit. But I’ll leave this to you, I’m just spit balling.

 

Edited August 10, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Hortonhearsawho]

I forgot who the ESPN crew is for Sunday night baseball. Surely they can't be as bad as Smoltz was right? 

[731.4life]

It appears we will miss Paul Skenes in the Pirates/Cubs series next weekend at Wrigley.

For the Brewers/Cubs 5 game series at Wrigley, it appears we will miss Freddy Peralta for Milwaukee. Unless, Milwaukee decides to push him back a day and start him on Monday, or go with the short rest and start him on Thursday. Miz is on IL but won't be surprised if he comes back for Brewers that series.

 

[UMFan83]

Just dropping this here:

[Hortonhearsawho]

10 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Just dropping this here:

That checks out. 

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Can someone explain to me why the Bluejays are the current leader in total fWAR with a +43 run differential? If wins correlate with runs, there’s 10 teams with a better run differential and pythag win%. This is current by the way and not projected. 
 

If Someone more knowledgeable can explanation I’d appreciate it.

Tariff of -5 runs when Jays fly back to Canada after a road trip.