Reds (Littell) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 8/5/25, 7:05pm

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

The Cubs longest losing streak has been 2 games this year, they will get back on track today.

Counterpoint, I think their longest winning streak has been 5 games 

They’ve lost 3 games in a row twice

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

That series with the Brewers will end the division race and most likely damage the Cubs WC chances unless the players want to put on their big boy pants and prove us wrong.

This season is trending, to me at least, towards a bitter ending. 

 

A terrible time to slump with the Brewers playing out of their minds and having 2 series with them in a tight race.  

[squally1313]

3 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Haven’t won a game where the pitching staff allows more than 4 runs since June 21st either. The Colorado series wasn’t a blimp in the radar.

 

2 hours ago, DrCub said:

I remember saying that and being told I was a moron.  Good times.  

you guys both thought the phrase was 'blimp in the radar'?

[Geographyhater8888]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

 

you guys both thought the phrase was 'blimp in the radar'?

Do you have anything to add other than pointing out a grammatical error? 

[squally1313]

24 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Do you have anything to add other than pointing out a grammatical error? 

The Cubs are 19-17 since June 21st and have the 6th best offense in baseball (4th if you include defense) over that stretch. 

[Geographyhater8888]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The Cubs are 19-17 since June 21st and have the 6th best offense in baseball (4th if you include defense) over that stretch. 

Yes. They need to be the number 1 offense or close to it unless you think the pitching staff will take them anywhere. They haven’t been number 1 and their record has reflected it. 

Edited August 6, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Yes. They need to be the number 1 offense unless you think the pitching staff will take them anywhere. They haven’t been number 1 and their record has reflected it. 

If the Cubs bad stretch is playing at an 85 win pace after playing at a 95 win pace leading up to that....that's a pretty good team?

[Geographyhater8888]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

If the Cubs bad stretch is playing at an 85 win pace after playing at a 95 win pace leading up to that....that's a pretty good team?

If you think pretty good Will will take you deep into the playoffs then that’s fine by me. They won 83 games last season, that’s 2 away from pretty good as well. So as long as the offense recaptures some of that early season magic, I’ll have my optimism restored.

Edited August 6, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[UMFan83]

6 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

If you think pretty good Will will take you deep into the playoffs then that’s fine by me. They won 83 games last season, that’s 2 away from pretty good as well. So as long as the offense recaptures some of that early season magic, I’ll have my optimism restored.

I mean the Diamondbacks went to the World Series in 2023 with an 84-78 record.  Cardinals won it with an 83-78 record.  Yes those are exceptions but it's absolutely a weighted crapshoot.  Yes the best teams will have slightly better odds but every playoff team has a legitimate shot if they are playing well. 

[Geographyhater8888]

9 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I mean the Diamondbacks went to the World Series in 2023 with an 84-78 record.  Cardinals won it with an 83-78 record.  Yes those are exceptions but it's absolutely a weighted crapshoot.  Yes the best teams will have slightly better odds but every playoff team has a legitimate shot if they are playing well. 

And no one will be optimistic going into the playoff series if they continue to win at this pace and play uninspiring baseball. A 2023 Rangers like playoff run is a best case scenario for this team with how they’re constructed, but I’m not as confident in our bullpen either.

Edited August 6, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

And no one will be optimistic going into the playoff series if they continue to win at this pace and play uninspiring baseball. A 2023 Rangers like playoff run is a best case scenario for this team with how they’re constructed, but I’m not as confident in our bullpen either.

To go back to the 83-win-Cardinals World Series run, the Cards lost 10 of their last 12. I am sure Cardinal fans were not optimistic of winning much that year. Fan optimism only goes so far - hell, the general vibe around here has been close to jumping off of a ledge and the Cubs haven't been an entire dumpster fire, at least not as much as you'd probably assume based on the reactions. Fans are fickle and optimism only reflects recency. 

It's easy to be down in the dumps about the roster right now. The bullpen is giving up a lot of home runs, the Cubs didn't get an exciting starting pitcher at the deadline, and the offense is scuffling. But all of these things are at their low point and it's unlikely that they will remain this low. Even if you're not super high on the pitching, I think we know the BP isn't going to serve up this many homeruns. It'll probably balance a little.

Things will be better. Maybe it'll be today. 

[squally1313]

20 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

If you think pretty good Will will take you deep into the playoffs then that’s fine by me. They won 83 games last season, that’s 2 away from pretty good as well. 

Two things

• Playing at an 85 win pace from June 22nd through the rest of the year gets us to 91 wins. Smarter people have done the research on how exceedingly rare it is to miss the playoffs with 90+ wins, so the issue of just missing out on the playoffs shouldn't apply with the current facts.
  • At that hypothetical point, are we an 91 win team or an 85 win team? 2024 Cubs played August and September at a 98 win pace but no one would call them a 98 win team because that wasn't their record.
• I think we're underperforming. Suzuki and Tucker are simply better players than what they've shown during this stretch, and I can't point to anyone playing out of their mind besides maybe Nico as negative regressors that will offset Suzuki/Tucker returning to form. The pitching is bad, yes, but the pitching has always been bad. The starting pitching isn't much changed from where it was post-Steele injury. Bullpen was 12th in the majors through May, 26th in the majors since then. Somewhere in the middle of that seems about right going forward. 

[chibears55]

13 hours ago, Derwood said:

It's just psychology. If this team slumps its way out of the playoffs, why would he want to stick around (even if he's partially responsible)? If he has a disappointing season (by his standards) in his one year in Chicago, why would he want to stay?

I get what youre saying but isn't his finger injury supposedly the cause of his hitting woes, mainly the lack of power?

[UMFan83]

33 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

And no one will be optimistic going into the playoff series if they continue to win at this pace and play uninspiring baseball. A 2023 Rangers like playoff run is a best case scenario for this team with how they’re constructed, but I’m not as confident in our bullpen either.

So winning the World Series is the best case scenario? What more is there? lol

[chibears55]

I have no doubt that they'll make the playoffs this season, I dont see this team being any worse then finishing out the season playing 500 ball(25-25), nor do I see the Reds playing almost Brewers level baseball their last 50 to knock them out.

Question for the Cubs is whether or not they'll be able to  play alot better then 500 to get back into 1st place or if the Brewers will become human again and go into any kind of slump to give the Cubs an actual chance to catch them.

Also once they get into postseason play, will the pitching they have be good enough to keep them in these games , and which offense will we see, the struggling one or the ones that can put up some runs. 

 

So, yea it sucks to see this team go from world beaters to just being ok, but they'll likely end up being good enough the rest of way to hold a playoff spot and then it'll be hoping they all can click once theyre there.

Also, as much as that 5 games series against the Brewers can kick them to the curb, especially for any chance at the Division, it could also be a series that can really ignite them and get them back to playing 600 baseball the rest of way.

[Geographyhater8888]

38 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Two things

• Playing at an 85 win pace from June 22nd through the rest of the year gets us to 91 wins. Smarter people have done the research on how exceedingly rare it is to miss the playoffs with 90+ wins, so the issue of just missing out on the playoffs shouldn't apply with the current facts.
  • At that hypothetical point, are we an 91 win team or an 85 win team? 2024 Cubs played August and September at a 98 win pace but no one would call them a 98 win team because that wasn't their record.
• I think we're underperforming. Suzuki and Tucker are simply better players than what they've shown during this stretch, and I can't point to anyone playing out of their mind besides maybe Nico as negative regressors that will offset Suzuki/Tucker returning to form. The pitching is bad, yes, but the pitching has always been bad. The starting pitching isn't much changed from where it was post-Steele injury. Bullpen was 12th in the majors through May, 26th in the majors since then. Somewhere in the middle of that seems about right going forward. 

I understand all of that. If they play 500 ball the rest of way they’ll finish with 88-89 wins which I think will be enough. There’s still just too many question marks regarding the rotation and even the sustainability of PCA and Busch’s production up to this point, Obviously they’re very good with enough of a sample size to make that judgement, with the pitching concerns we’ll need them to be the guys they were all the way to the all star break to shake off the idea of just get in anything can happen mentality that rarely translates to success in the playoffs as our glimmer of hope in a best of series vs those Phillies lefties as just one example. Are they mid to high 800 OPS guys or is there some inevitable regression that’s marginal enough to not offset the other cracks in the team?

Edited August 6, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

10 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

So winning the World Series is the best case scenario? What more is there? lol

Nothing. It’s a sunnier outlook than being the 1/124 06 Cardinals who had a core of players with back to back 100 win seasons the previous 2 years. Whether or not its achievable is the question.

[Backtobanks]

17 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Bieber would have cost Wiggins. That was a conversation stopper. But high prices doesn’t absolve Jed. He should have known prices would be high. Rather than wait for the deadline he needed to add a pitcher in the off season. Pivetta comes to mind. 

Who said that Bieber would have cost Wiggins?  The Blue Jays got him for a 22-year-old A-ball pitcher.

[squally1313]

15 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I understand all of that. If they play 500 ball the rest of way they’ll finish with 88-89 wins which I think will be enough. There’s still just too many question marks regarding the rotation and even the sustainability of PCA and Busch’s production up to this point, Obviously they’re very good with enough of a sample size to make that judgement, with the pitching concerns we’ll need them to be the guys they were all the way to the all star break to shake off the idea of just get in anything can happen mentality that rarely translates to success in the playoffs as our glimmer of hope in a best of series vs those Phillies lefties as just one example.

I don't know. It's just still overtly negative to me. Like, the Dodgers are 13-16 since July 1. Mets are 15-14 in that stretch, 27-29 since June 1. Are they out too? The Tigers (13-17 since July 1), Yankees (12-18), and Astros (14-16) too? Or do we then have to bring in subjective judgements on why we're uniquely poorly positioned? Because the advanced statistics still really like our offense. Edit: Like if you think those teams are better suited, you're basically saying that the teams that performed as well or worse than us for the first 60 games, and then as poorly or worse than us the next 40 games are somehow better than us going forward. Which takes me back to the 'overtly negative' point. 

I just think your argument leaves you with like, three teams that you think have any real shot to win the World Series, which is a pretty foolish spot to be in in early August. 

Edited August 6, 2025 by squally1313

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Who said that Bieber would have cost Wiggins?  The Blue Jays got him for a 22-year-old A-ball pitcher.

Stephan was ranked #80 on fangraphs page and was getting back end top-100 (or honorable mention) love on most industry rankings. He was most comparable to Jaxon Wiggins who has been getting similarly treated, either sneaking on to top-100's at the bottom or being among the HM list. Maybe one team is higher on Wiggins, another on Stephan, but using industry rankings, Wiggins and Stephan were very similarly viewed on the aggregate. 

It's very fair to say that Bieber would have cost a prospect in a similar vein to Wiggins based on that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

16 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Who said that Bieber would have cost Wiggins?  The Blue Jays got him for a 22-year-old A-ball pitcher.

Khal Stephen was a 2nd round pick having a great season and had broken into some Top 100 lists(Fangraphs had him at 80).  I would consider Wiggins a better prospect but the Cubs don't have a different pitching prospect that exceeds Stephen's pedigree.

[Geographyhater8888]

21 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I don't know. It's just still overtly negative to me. Like, the Dodgers are 13-16 since July 1. Mets are 15-14 in that stretch, 27-29 since June 1. Are they out too? The Tigers (13-17 since July 1), Yankees (12-18), and Astros (14-16) too? Or do we then have to bring in subjective judgements on why we're uniquely poorly positioned? Because the advanced statistics still really like our offense. 

I just think your argument leaves you with like, three teams that you think have any real shot to win the World Series, which is a pretty foolish spot to be in in early August. 

All the above teams you listed minus the Tigers and the Yankees who I don’t think are that good have track records of success in the regular season and playoffs over the last 4+ years. The sample size is big enough to give them a pass for regular season hiccups. Because I watch this team naturally I’ll focus on their flaws because I’m aware of them and what the implications of them will have in a best of playoff series. It goes for every fan base. 

if they were in a heater I’d be focusing more on the positives. That’s human nature. But you’re talking about a rotation with 2 arms in Boyd and Horton who will have the highest work load of their careers and Jameson Taillon as your number 3 starter. Leaving everything else out of the equation that’s my main concern. Who in that bullpen can hold a deficit at the moment? 

Edited August 6, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

All the above teams you listed minus the Tigers and the Yankees who I don’t think are that good have track records of success in the regular season and playoffs over the last 4+ years. The sample size is big enough to give them a pass for regular season hiccups. Because I watch this team naturally I’ll focus on their flaws because I’m aware of them and what the implications of them will have in a best of playoff series. It goes for every fan base. 

1. This is not really a thing, giving the Astros extra credit for the success they had even 2 years ago with a different manager and 80% different roster is silly, it's working backwards to justify pessimism.

2. The Mets have one (1) 90 win season in the last 10 years, 0 division titles, and are 1-2 in playoff series during that time.  Add them to the other teams you discounted and you're only holding up the Dodgers and the aforementioned Astros

[squally1313]

You're just slicing and dicing sample sizes to support the position that 95%ish of your posts are about: how uniquely bad the Cubs are. Bringing in the past four years but ignoring the first two months of this year is insane. Play out the thought process of your last sentence. Every team has a geographyhater that thinks their team is bad and won't do anything in the playoffs. Why are you right and they are wrong?

[Geographyhater8888]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

1. This is not really a thing, giving the Astros extra credit for the success they had even 2 years ago with a different manager and 80% different roster is silly, it's working backwards to justify pessimism.

2. The Mets have one (1) 90 win season in the last 10 years, 0 division titles, and are 1-2 in playoff series during that time.  Add them to the other teams you discounted and you're only discounting the Dodgers and the aforementioned Astros

Padres, Phillies, Dodgers and whatever the hell you want to make of Milwaukee. Forget the Mets then. If you’re trying to convince me that the cubs have a chance at winning the World Series I’ll buy it, if you’re telling me the odds are on par with with some of the other teams with majors questions around the pitching staff and whether the offense can get red hot at the right time to offset these potential cracks in the roster then I can’t say I like those odds at the moments.