Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-8-25

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa at St. Paul, 7:07 pm
Knoxville vs. Montgomery, 6:00 pm
South Bend at Wisconsin, 6:05 pm
Myrtle Beach at Kannapolis, 6:00 pm
ACL Cubs vs. ACL Padres, 8:00 pm
DSL Cubs Blue at DSL Cleveland Goryl, 10:00 am
DSL Cubs Red vs. DSL Tigers 1, 10:00 am

Probable Starting Pitchers:

Iowa: RHP Will Sanders (26.2 IP, 4.39 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 24 K, 12 BB)
Knoxville: RHP Nick Dean (27 IP, 5.67 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 31 K, 7 BB)
South Bend: RHP Brooks Caple (28.2 IP, 7.53 ERA, 6.08 FIP, 17 K, 17 BB)
Myrtle Beach: LHP Hayden Frank (51 IP, 6.88 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 41 K, 24 BB)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Juan Tomás: 0/4, 2 BB, K
Robin Ortiz: 1/4, HR (3)
Luis León: 2/4, HR (2)
Wilfri de la Cruz: 1/3
Emannoel Madeira: 3 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Juan Cabada had the day off

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Owen Caissie HR (#17)

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

#18:

 

[Irrelevant Dude]

Happ to 2B, Nico to 3B, Caissie to LF?

Ok, probably not a great idea to weaken three defensive positions, but it's too bad there isn't a spot for Caissie.

[Cubs420psd]

I kinda don't wanna trade ONKC anymore (at least at the deadline)

 

I kinda want him as some insurance if we can't resign Tucker. If you do resign Tucker, just trade Cassie in the office season.

[Bertz]

Ummmm do we know why Alcantara was pulled?

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Ummmm do we know why Alcantara was pulled?

Yeah this is a weird one. He wasn't hitting the inning before. "Defensive sub". That one is out of no where.

Announcers seem completely miffed.

[Bertz]

20 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah this is a weird one. He wasn't hitting the inning before. "Defensive sub". That one is out of no where.

Announcers seem completely miffed.

Yeah this feels like either something extremely benign like he got the runs or a hug watch.  Because the timing wouldn't seem to line up with an injury at all.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Bertz said:

Yeah this feels like either something extremely benign like he got the runs or a hug watch.  Because the timing wouldn't seem to line up with an injury at all.

Not one bit. This is incredibly odd. And the strangest thing is how quiet everything is. I try not to use X much now a days, but even on X, there's no discussion about it. 

Really, really, really odd.

[Bertz]

Cam Sisneros continues to rake.  With his age he's basically gotta continue racing through the system but sub 10% K rates with seemingly okay power is always worth keeping an eye on

[Jason Ross]

Tommy Birch: Leg injury he's been dealing with for a few weeks. 

[muntjack]

I think we discussed Rojas staying put at SB a few weeks ago,  but that promotion has to be coming after the break,  right?  He's at nearly 700 PAs there, and has a 140 wRC+ as one of the youngest players in A+. 

Edited July 9, 2025 by muntjack

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, muntjack said:

I think we discussed Rojas staying put at SB a few weeks ago,  but that promotion has to be coming after the break,  right?  He's at nearly 700 PAs there, and has a 140 wRC+ as one of the youngest players in A+. 

The belief is everybody is in a holding pattern through the deadline actually. It appears that might be the case. Rojas is definitely deserving of a promotion. I think teams are going to be all over him. I'm starting to think him and Alcantara are likely to go, possibly Gallagher as well. Jed can only have so many names on the off-limits list. It makes sense to put Caissie on that list, possibly Wiggins, but he will have to acquiesce to a certain extent to get what is needed.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Caissie didn't even look like he got that 1st one. That is a guy who will love LCF in Wrigley.

[JBears79]

At this point the only reason to move Cassie before the offseason is for a legit ace, right? Not against trading him because of the Krate but this breakout is very impressive and I think we need the insurance behind Tucker in case he doesnt sign.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, JBears79 said:

At this point the only reason to move Cassie before the offseason is for a legit ace, right? Not against trading him because of the Krate but this breakout is very impressive and I think we need the insurance behind Tucker in case he doesnt sign.

It depends on how likely you are to believe in the upwards trajectory. There's some pretty compelling data to suggest that there has been improvement in how he controls the zone and makes contact. You can see that here in this chart.

 

The in-zone contact is on a pretty strong incline while he's seeing his rolling whiff% has dropped all season. z-swing seems to vacillate a bit, but that's not bad or anything. Here is his swinging% as well. Again, obvious downward trajectory. 

If you believe this data, and you believe he has made progress in contact ability, than Caissie is a legitimate middle of the order bat. His batted ball data is bananas Look at the horsefeathers damage the dude does on fastballs! He makes some of the loudest contact you can find, which despite his size should allow him to be a bit of a BABIP monster. If his K% sits at like, 27% he's a legitimate threat to be 40% better than league average with the bat making him not only viable in RF, but viable at 1b or DH. 

However if you're of the mind that he's simply at a point where 800+ PA's and is a bit comfortable against Triple-A pitching, than maybe you don't believe in the contact progress .

I think I believe in the progress myself. This isn't a blip and it's pretty consistent. That suggests progress. 

 

[Bertz]

The fact of the matter is, because of the expectations around guys repeating their minor league level, Caissie's stock was probably (mildly) down this year until some point in the last week or two.  He *needed* to have a stretch like this to justify keeping his status as a top ~50 prospect IMO.

Caissie's certainly too good to be used on a rental, but I feel comfortable moving him this month. For instance I'd gladly include Caissie in deals for Griffin Jax or Edward Cabrera.  I'd reluctantly include him in a Keller/Bednar deal.  And I'm on the fence on a Kris Bubic deal.

Ideally we would know what's going to happen with Tucker before we moved Caissie, but with Alcantara, Long, and Ballesteros in hand it's not a massive consideration IMO.

[Tryptamine]

I'm happy to see him finally utilizing more of that raw power, but I'm still going to refrain from getting too hyped up until I start seeing that K% approaching 25. Not very many bats can succeed at  30% k rate. Right now the the closest players you're going to find are Riley Greene, Kyle Stowers and Eugenio Suarez. 

[Rex Buckingham]

38 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Ideally we would know what's going to happen with Tucker before we moved Caissie, but with Alcantara, Long, and Ballesteros in hand it's not a massive consideration IMO.

I think this is an underrated consideration. Not signing Tucker (while bad) is something the Cubs are almost uniquely prepared for. They can put Seiya back in RF (which despite Tucker's previous Gold Glove, he has been roughly equal to Seiya's D last year according to BRef) and then find which of the young bats fits at DH and/or mix and match in RF with Seiya

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm happy to see him finally utilizing more of that raw power, but I'm still going to refrain from getting too hyped up until I start seeing that K% approaching 25. Not very many bats can succeed at  30% k rate. Right now the the closest players you're going to find are Riley Greene, Kyle Stowers and Eugenio Suarez. 

25% is probably unlikely over any season statline. But over his last 134 PA's, his K% has dropped to 25.8%, which is a non-significant sample size. Over his last 222 his K% is 28.2%, which, for Caissie's batted ball, is likely more than good enough. Caissie hits the ball so well that he should maintain an above average BABIP despite the size; quality batted ball increases BABIP ability and he's been a BABIP monster basically everywhere, even when he struck out mid 30's. 

I think those are great player comps though, for upper end Caissie. Realistically, an Owen Caissie who strikes out 28% of the time is likely a middle of the order bat no issue. The things that will keep him away from that is an inflated K% against MLB pitching over the 30% to the 35% mark. I will caution that I think his first 200-400 PA's could be rather ugly, he's had a tendency to struggle for a few months at most every level before "getting it". But if you're buying the whiff decrease (which is backed up behind both in zone an o-zone whiff) than I think there's a good enough reason to believe in him getting around that rate.

I still would consider moving him at the deadline, he's not untouchable good. But I wouldn't trade him for a rental, and I would treat him like a top-40 or more prospect in a trade.

[We Got The Whole 9]

He has a 327 wRC+ with a 13% K rate in July. Just go ahead and call him up for Happ, horsefeathers it.