Cardinals (Mikolas) vs Cubs (Rea): 7/4/25, 1:20pm

[PeanutPunch33]

7 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Obviously they’re better than this 10 runs in 50 innings stretch but PCA struggles a bit vs lefties and Busch, our 920 OPS first baseman isn’t even allowed in the lineup until today so regression is predictable. 

but we’re not allowed to make these basic observations until the sample size reaches 3 months like with Turner? Is that the rule? 

I'm disappointed that Busch isn't getting more time vs lefties.  I mean, he might be on the older side for a 2nd year player but he's still a high upside 2nd year player.  They need to start letting him develop into an every day player and the HR he hit yesterday vs the lefty should have earned him the start today.

One last point about Cubs vs LHP - since the end of May, they have an 84 WRC+ and are amongst the worst teams against LHP.  So that statistic isn't exactly reverting back to what they did in April, as some might have you believe, it is actively sliding in a bad direction and very concerning.  

I get that they've played some great lefties like Skubal and Gore, but they've also been dominated by dudes from the Pirates and Cardinals and random bullpen guys.  It's time to call it what it is: they are clearly not that good against lefties and the best solution is to make a trade. 

[Bertz]

Just now, PeanutPunch33 said:

One last point about Cubs vs LHP - since the end of May, they have an 84 WRC+ and are amongst the worst teams against LHP.  So that statistic isn't exactly reverting back to what they did in April, as some might have you believe, it is actively sliding in a bad direction and very concerning.  

Here's a useful exercise: Go look at the individual pitchers that make up that June playing time, and tell me if anything besides the fact that they're left handed stands out to you

[PeanutPunch33]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Here's a useful exercise: Go look at the individual pitchers that make up that June playing time, and tell me if anything besides the fact that they're left handed stands out to you

Great, they've faced some tough lefties.  They'll face comparable or better ones in October. 

Now what's the excuse for sucking against Andrew Heaney and Matthew Liberatore?  

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Great, they've faced some tough lefties.  They'll face comparable or better ones in October. 

Now what's the excuse for sucking against Andrew Heaney and Matthew Liberatore?  

Setting aside that I think it's silly to get worked up over small samples, they scored 3 runs in 6 innings *with the wind blowing in* against Andrew Heaney.  If these are the sorts of games reinforcing your position I don't know what to tell you.

[PeanutPunch33]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Setting aside that I think it's silly to get worked up over small samples, they scored 3 runs in 6 innings *with the wind blowing in* against Andrew Heaney.  If these are the sorts of games reinforcing your position I don't know what to tell you.

Yeah Heaney was 1 out away from 6 IP and 2 ER.  We'd all horsefeathers our pants if someone like Jamo or Ben Brown did that in a playoff game.  It was a good start by him, any way you slice it.  

There is now a larger sample size of them being mediocre vs lefties than there is of them being good vs lefties.  Those are just the facts.  Since May 1st (over 2 months of baseball) they are 16th in WRC+ against lefties.  The White Sox and Nationals are better than the Cubs vs lefties during that time frame.  LOL. 

It's okay to admit this team isn't perfect and could use an upgrade at 3rd base to help them hit lefties 🤷‍♂️ just my opinion 

Edited July 5, 2025 by PeanutPunch33

[Geographyhater8888]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Setting aside that I think it's silly to get worked up over small samples, they scored 3 runs in 6 innings *with the wind blowing in* against Andrew Heaney.  If these are the sorts of games reinforcing your position I don't know what to tell you.

He provided a sample size. 91 wRC+ since May 1st. That’s 2 months right there. The fact that people are realizing Turner needs to be replaced in the lineup is a symptom of this. It’s a an observation that may or not be a minor speed bump. 

[Bertz]

Just now, PeanutPunch33 said:

Yeah Heaney was 1 out away from 6 IP and 2 ER.  We'd all horsefeathers our pants if someone like Jamo or Ben Brown did that in a playoff game.  It was a good start by him, any way you slice it.  

There is now a larger sample size of them being mediocre vs lefties than there is of them being good vs lefties.  Those are just the facts.  Since May 1st (over 2 months of baseball) they are 16th in WRC+ against lefties.  The White Sox and Nationals are better than the Cubs vs lefties during that time frame.  LOL. 

It's okay to admit this team isn't perfect and could use an upgrade at 3rd base to help them hit lefties 🤷‍♂️

That's all June though.  Here are their monthly splits vs lefties

April - 144

May - 100

June - 78

July - 114

Also doesn't it tell you something about the molehill you're making a mountain out of when you cherry pick a date range and the bottom line is still just "slightly below average"?

[PeanutPunch33]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

He provided a sample size. 91 wRC+ since May 1st. That’s 2 months right there. The fact that people are realizing Turner needs to be replaced in the lineup is a symptom of this. It’s a an observation that may or not be a minor speed bump. 

Agreed, the Cubs had a 151 WRC+ against lefties in April.  I'm supposed to believe they are closer to that than what they've shown for the last 2 + months? 

It would help quite a bit if they replaced Turner.  I'd be onboard for both, a stop gap replacement for Shaw and a better platoon for Turner.  Then they are ready to roll. 

 

[Bertz]

Just now, PeanutPunch33 said:

Agreed, the Cubs had a 151 WRC+ against lefties in April.  I'm supposed to believe they are closer to that than what they've shown for the last 2 + months? 

Literally no one has said that.  There are two camps here:

"Their full season numbers are good so I'm not worried"

"They were bad in June so I'm worried"

[PeanutPunch33]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

That's all June though.  Here are their monthly splits vs lefties

April - 144

May - 100

June - 78

July - 114

Also doesn't it tell you something about the molehill you're making a mountain out of when you cherry pick a date range and the bottom line is still just "slightly below average"?

I don't think it's fair to include July yet, given how early into the month we are.  

I do think it's fair to judge them based on the last 2 months of performance vs lefties.  That's a percentage of the season, not exactly a small sample size. 

This is one of those things where the stats matchup exactly with the eye test.  The ABs vs lefties have been ugly.  They really do (IMO) need at least one more guy that can hit LHP.  

[Bertz]

Just now, PeanutPunch33 said:

I don't think it's fair to include July yet, given how early into the month we are.

lol

[PeanutPunch33]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Literally no one has said that.  There are two camps here:

"Their full season numbers are good so I'm not worried"

"They were bad in June so I'm worried"

I think July is a pretty big month to gauge where they are vs lefties.  Glad to see it's off to a good start - but if, by the end of July, we are looking at 3 consecutive month-over-month declines, hopefully you would be on board with a potential upgrade opportunity 

[Geographyhater8888]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

lol

Let’s all hope they put a crooked number kn the board today to shut the people who notice these things up.

[PeanutPunch33]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

lol

Yes, I don't think it's fair to include July in our analysis when we are a whopping 5 days into the month.  You don't think that's a bit disingenuous?  Especially when all that damage came against 1 reliever in a blowout?

Funnily enough, during July they've also gotten dominated by Cantillo and Allard (a journeyman). 

 

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Yes, I don't think it's fair to include July in our analysis when we are a whopping 5 days into the month.  You don't think that's a bit disingenuous?  Especially when all that damage came against 1 reliever in a blowout?

Funnily enough, during July they've also gotten dominated by Cantillo and Allard (a journeyman). 

 

You realize you're making the *exact* same arguments that I did earlier right?  Sample size and quality of competition.  Ring any bells?

[PeanutPunch33]

This is just my opinion, but if the Cubs had to face a guy like Quintana tomorrow, in an elimination game, who's good but hardly the best left handed pitcher around, I would not feel confident that they'd score more than 2 runs in 6 or 7 innings.  I'd already know it would be a low scoring game.  

Now imagine how I'd feel if they had to face Ranger Suarez or Sanchez in that same scenario.  

These opportunities are precious fellas.  Again, just my opinion.  

 

[PeanutPunch33]

Just now, Bertz said:

You realize you're making the *exact* same arguments that I did earlier right?  Sample size and quality of competition.  Ring any bells?

So if over 2 months of sample size of them being below water vs lefties isn't good enough, what sample size do you need? That's like 30% of the season lol.  

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

So if over 2 months of sample size of them being below water vs lefties isn't good enough, what sample size do you need? That's like 30% of the season lol.  

They weren't bad in May you're just bucketing May and June together to try and make your point stronger.

[PeanutPunch33]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

They weren't bad in May you're just bucketing May and June together to try and make your point stronger.

Oh, I get what you are saying now.  I mean, I guess that's one way to look at it.  They were elite in April, average-ish in May and horrendous in June. 

The problem is that they are gonna run out of time to take a wait and see approach.  IDK, as of right now, I think it's the right move to get another guy. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

generally, yes, the rule is to wait until you have a meaningful sample size to draw conclusions.

Is that the rule for making an observation or reaching a conclusion? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We appear to have gone from “It’s not a secret that Left handed pitchers are the cubs kryptonite” to “hey we’re just noticing things here” in a very short period of time

[squally1313]

Also, giving everyone the largest benefits of the doubt, giving Eugenio Suarez two at bats against a lefty vs Matt Shaw being somehow The Fix is insane. We have like two starters! The offense is literally first in overall production, this isn’t a real problem. 

[PeanutPunch33]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Also, giving everyone the largest benefits of the doubt, giving Eugenio Suarez two at bats against a lefty vs Matt Shaw being somehow The Fix is insane. We have like two starters! The offense is literally first in overall production, this isn’t a real problem. 

So if a team was starting a Matt Shaw/Berti/Darwin Barney type of player, and they happened to also have the best offense in baseball, you don't think they should seek an upgrade to that 1 position just because they have the best offense in baseball?

Why not make it even better if there's a logical, short term upgrade?

I also absolutely think 2 ABs could be the difference between a win and loss in a potential playoff game.  Suarez has had a game this year where he hit 4 HRs.  Shaw has 2 HRs in almost 200 plate appearances.  

Edited July 5, 2025 by PeanutPunch33

[Geographyhater8888]

28 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

We appear to have gone from “It’s not a secret that Left handed pitchers are the cubs kryptonite” to “hey we’re just noticing things here” in a very short period of time

Only a few hours I think. We’re in the noticing stages now. It’s no longer a secret until at least August I think. That’s on me for me putting it in the wrong order.

Edited July 5, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[javy knows my name]

1 hour ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

generally, yes, the rule is to wait until you have a meaningful sample size to draw conclusions.

Haha, says the guy who wants to send a rookie down again to crush AAA when all he needs are MLB at bats for development