Question of the week: What is the Cubs' biggest need heading toward the deadline?

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

I think it remains "possible" but my guess is "unlikely". That means 2 of your 13 pitchers on your roster are essentially doing the job of one. In other words, while the rest of the league is running a 13 man pitching staff, you're running what is closer to 12. 

I would think with days off and a manager like Counsell, who is creative, the cubs could send Brown and Horton down to AAA and then back up for their start. Then they can carry 8 pen arms at all times, line every other team. 

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I would think with days off and a manager like Counsell, who is creative, the cubs could send Brown and Horton down to AAA and then back up for their start. Then they can carry 8 pen arms at all times, line every other team. 

I would guess far more straight forward. Sending Brown to Iowa for a "developmental list" stint with the explanation of "working on his changeup" allows the Cubs to keep Genesis Cabrerra and limit Brown's innings with a plausible explanation. 

I doubt the Cubs play yo-yo like that. 

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I would guess far more straight forward. Sending Brown to Iowa for a "developmental list" stint with the explanation of "working on his changeup" allows the Cubs to keep Genesis Cabrerra and limit Brown's innings with a plausible explanation. 

I doubt the Cubs play yo-yo like that. 

Maybe you are right. In your scenerio how do they limit Horton? Do you have them starting Rea with Horton going to the pen? Or are you suggesting a second starting pitcher via trade? I am pretty sure you agree Horton cannot pitch every 5th game without any restrictions. I know you are a big Horton guy (I like him too) but you have also have suggested he does need to ease a bit into innings this year. (I also agree with that) How do they do it? 🤷

[Bull]

37 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe you are right. In your scenerio how do they limit Horton? Do you have them starting Rea with Horton going to the pen? Or are you suggesting a second starting pitcher via trade? I am pretty sure you agree Horton cannot pitch every 5th game without any restrictions. I know you are a big Horton guy (I like him too) but you have also have suggested he does need to ease a bit into innings this year. (I also agree with that) How do they do it? 🤷

I know it will never happen, but I like the idea of throttling Horton down to three innings/40 pitches and stretching Pomeranz out to three innings and piggybacking them. Then two pitchers are doing the job of two pitchers and you limit horton's innings and exposure. 

If cabrera turns into a pumpkin and you need another lefty, Luke Little is cruising in AAA with an 0.82 WHIP and 3-1 K/BB ratio. I still think Little is your playoff secret weapon. Can you imagine a softer L/R combo like Theilbar and Pressley followed by 100+ L/R combo of Little and Palencia. 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Bull said:

I know it will never happen, but I like the idea of throttling Horton down to three innings/40 pitches and stretching Pomeranz out to three innings and piggybacking them. Then two pitchers are doing the job of two pitchers and you limit horton's innings and exposure. 

If cabrera turns into a pumpkin and you need another lefty, Luke Little is cruising in AAA with an 0.82 WHIP and 3-1 K/BB ratio. I still think Little is your playoff secret weapon. Can you imagine a softer L/R combo like Theilbar and Pressley followed by 100+ L/R combo of Little and Palencia. 

I’m not sure I trust Little to throw strikes. However, I am still not sold on Cabrera either. 

[Bertz]

I think the plot has been lost a bit on the limiting innings front.

Ben Brown's currently track for something like 160 innings, and Horton like 140.  You'd probably like to lop about 20 off of both those numbers?  But like that doesn't require anything extreme. 

- A couple weeks in Iowa going once a week instead of as part of a proper rotation does the trick

- A three week stint on the IL does the trick

- A couple skipped starts spread around does the trick.  And what do you know we have the ASB coming up, as well as the TDL, as well as a couple guys coming off the IL.  Several opportunities to give the current rotation some rest

- A month in the bullpen does the trick

Like I'm all for creativity, but it feels like this can be approached in a pretty straightforward manner.  Especially with a 5+ game lead, the difference between 20 innings of Cade Horton and 20 innings of Colin Rea is not going to kill you.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

39 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think the plot has been lost a bit on the limiting innings front.

Ben Brown's currently track for something like 160 innings, and Horton like 140.  You'd probably like to lop about 20 off of both those numbers?  But like that doesn't require anything extreme. 

- A couple weeks in Iowa going once a week instead of as part of a proper rotation does the trick

- A three week stint on the IL does the trick

- A couple skipped starts spread around does the trick.  And what do you know we have the ASB coming up, as well as the TDL, as well as a couple guys coming off the IL.  Several opportunities to give the current rotation some rest

- A month in the bullpen does the trick

Like I'm all for creativity, but it feels like this can be approached in a pretty straightforward manner.  Especially with a 5+ game lead, the difference between 20 innings of Cade Horton and 20 innings of Colin Rea is not going to kill you.

I think you need to be slightly more intentional because you hope for 10-25 postseason innings from them too, but I agree that the idea that there's an enormous cliff coming has gotten exaggerated.

[Geographyhater8888]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

Jake Burger had a 79 wRC+ against lefties just last year

And a 122 wRC+ in 2025 vs lefties with a career 113 wRC+. Busch also had a 103 wRC+ in 2024 vs lefties if that matters. 

Edited June 17, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think you need to be slightly more intentional because you hope for 10-25 postseason innings from them too, but I agree that the idea that there's an enormous cliff coming has gotten exaggerated.

 

I agree with this. I don’t think sending Brown down for 15 days or even a little more to work on a 3rd pitch and then maybe sending Horton down a bit with the same excuse  is actually anything all that creative. I don’t have a problem with letting Rea start a few games either,!if that saves 6 innings from Horton. A trade for one starter and then smart use of Brown, Horton and Rea should allow both Horton and Brown to have a few innings in them come the playoffs. Neither would start in the playoffs, so they might not get that many innings. I don’t think anyone is exaggerating the amount of innings the Cubs need to save. No idea has them shutting down either pitcher. Just allowing them to miss maybe 3 starts while also limiting the Rea starts. 

[Jason Ross]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe you are right. In your scenerio how do they limit Horton? Do you have them starting Rea with Horton going to the pen? Or are you suggesting a second starting pitcher via trade? I am pretty sure you agree Horton cannot pitch every 5th game without any restrictions. I know you are a big Horton guy (I like him too) but you have also have suggested he does need to ease a bit into innings this year. (I also agree with that) How do they do it? 🤷

I would guess Horton will head to the BP for a time. Yes. I think he's been too good to take him out right now, but as we inch closer to the deadline the Cubs will be able to bring in at least a SP and he will probably take some time in the BP. He may be a playoff starter depending on who they bring in via trade and they may ramp him back up, but he won't be able to keep going every 5th all season. 

[squally1313]

49 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

And a 122 wRC+ in 2025 vs lefties with a career 113 wRC+. Busch also had a 103 wRC+ in 2024 vs lefties if that matters. 

So is it a 'sure thing' he'll produce against LHPs, and if so, why didn't he last year

[Geographyhater8888]

55 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

So is it a 'sure thing' he'll produce against LHPs, and if so, why didn't he last year

Nothing is a sure thing. He’s produced 3 years vs lefties and one where he didn’t. That’s the sample size you’re looking at. What is a sure thing is Turner is 40 and has an 89 wRC+. But I guess he should have a 128 ops+ because that was his total in 2024? We can be confident that he’ll likely be an upgrade as rental, unless he he turns back the clock to 2024 and not 23, 22 or 25. He’s just an example of one player I would think wouldn’t cost much. But all is well because Turner had good 2024 splits.

how do we know Busch isn’t a sure thing based off of last season?

Edited June 17, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Nothing is a sure thing

I was quoting you

12 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

He’s produced 3 years vs lefties and one where he didn’t.

• Justin Turner 2022 v LHP: 109 wRC
• Justin Turner 2023 v LHP: 142 wRC
• Justin Turner 2024 v LHP: 119 wRC

[Geographyhater8888]

21 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I was quoting you

• Justin Turner 2022 v LHP: 109 wRC
• Justin Turner 2023 v LHP: 142 wRC
• Justin Turner 2024 v LHP: 119 wRC

The guy I was replying to said Jake Burger wouldn’t be an upgrade over Turner because of his 79 wRC+ in 2024, which is relevant in 2025 where he’s posted a 122+ thus far and a 113+ for his career?

Edited June 17, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The guy I was replying to said Jake Burger wouldn’t be an upgrade over Turner because of his 79 wRC+ in 2024, which is relevant in 2025 where he’s posted a 122+ thus far and a 113+ for his career?

You said Burger would be a 'sure thing' as to production v LHP. That wasn't the case all of one year ago. Justin Turner is a career 124 wRC hitter against LHP in his career, better than 2025 Burger and career Burger. You're going to counter and say that he's 40, so we should just throw out the rest of his career because of 54 PAs this year, and then you want 2024 (where Turner essentially matched Burger's 2025 production and exceeded his career production) to just not exist because Burger had a bad year and Turner got 6 months older in the offseason.

Ultimately Burger would be free and if you want to swap them out I'm certainly not going to lose sleep over it, but saying definitively that he would be an upgrade is just not really backed up by any material data set. 

[Geographyhater8888]

38 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I was quoting you

• Justin Turner 2022 v LHP: 109 wRC
• Justin Turner 2023 v LHP: 142 wRC
• Justin Turner 2024 v LHP: 119 wRC

 

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

You said Burger would be a 'sure thing' as to production v LHP. That wasn't the case all of one year ago. Justin Turner is a career 124 wRC hitter against LHP in his career, better than 2025 Burger and career Burger. You're going to counter and say that he's 40, so we should just throw out the rest of his career because of 54 PAs this year, and then you want 2024 (where Turner essentially matched Burger's 2025 production and exceeded his career production) to just not exist because Burger had a bad year and Turner got 6 months older in the offseason.

Ultimately Burger would be free and if you want to swap them out I'm certainly not going to lose sleep over it, but saying definitively that he would be an upgrade is just not really backed up by any material data set. 

The material data set is this year. Right now. Maybe Turner is just having an off year and or needs more at bats and will hit around that 128+, or at least above Burgers career 113+ at ages 41, 42 and 43 until he gets bored of baseball, but I think it’s more likely that he’s a victim of Father Time. So probably not. Can Burger revert back to 2024? Possibly, but probably more likely to fall closer to his 2022, 23 and 25 platoon splits. 

 

How about probably an upgrade? 

Edited June 17, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

 

The material data set is this year. Right now. Maybe Turner is just having an off year and or needs more at bats and will hit around that 128+, or at least above Burgers career 113+ at ages 41, 42 and 43 until he gets bored of baseball, but I think it’s more likely that he’s a victim of Father Time. So probably not. Can Burger revert back to 2024? Possibly, but probably more likely to fall closer to his 2022, 23 and 25 platoon splits. 

 

How about probably an upgrade? 

Ok, just going to put this out there. Cubs are not going to replace Turner. They may get a bench bat, maybe even Burger. But he won’t replace Turner. They need to upgrade for either Berti or Brujan. But even that isn’t that important to me. Not because they don’t need one. But because no one they could get is a sure upgrade over someone they can bring up from AAA to fill the bench spot. 

Edited June 17, 2025 by Rcal10

[squally1313]

14 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

 

The material data set is this year. Right now. Maybe Turner is just having an off year and or needs more at bats and will hit around that 128+, or at least above Burgers career 113+ at ages 41, 42 and 43 until he gets bored of baseball, but I think it’s more likely that he’s a victim of Father Time. So probably not. Can Burger revert back to 2024? Possibly, but probably more likely to fall closer to his 2022, 23 and 25 platoon splits. 

 

How about probably an upgrade? 

Does Father Time just have a scheduled meeting with the players in the offseason between age 39 and age 40? You realize that when talking about a sample size of 50 PAs so far this year and roughly 100 in a full season, comparing the 'guy who was good in 2022, 2023, 2025' to 'the guy who was good in 2022, 2023, and 2024' is pretty much the definition of flipping a coin right?

It's a move for the sake of making a move. There's no real way of knowing if it would help or hurt the team because it would be a 50 PA sample size that would be largely BABIP influenced.

I just feel like at times this board gets very trigger happy. Pressly sucked for 3 weeks? Cut him! Berti made an error at third? Cut him! Dansby or Happ has a bad couple weeks? 8th in the lineup! We'd be on essentially a brand new bench and bullpen if we just bailed on people for a bad sample size worth of PAs/innings, and we would have replaced those players with similarly flawed players. It's fine to just....not make moves. It's especially fine when the team is very good. 

[Geographyhater8888]

33 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Does Father Time just have a scheduled meeting with the players in the offseason between age 39 and age 40? You realize that when talking about a sample size of 50 PAs so far this year and roughly 100 in a full season, comparing the 'guy who was good in 2022, 2023, 2025' to 'the guy who was good in 2022, 2023, and 2024' is pretty much the definition of flipping a coin right?

It's a move for the sake of making a move. There's no real way of knowing if it would help or hurt the team because it would be a 50 PA sample size that would be largely BABIP influenced.

I just feel like at times this board gets very trigger happy. Pressly sucked for 3 weeks? Cut him! Berti made an error at third? Cut him! Dansby or Happ has a bad couple weeks? 8th in the lineup! We'd be on essentially a brand new bench and bullpen if we just bailed on people for a bad sample size worth of PAs/innings, and we would have replaced those players with similarly flawed players. It's fine to just....not make moves. It's especially fine when the team is very good. 

He’s had 98 at bats in 39 games. His single season WAR totals have dipped linearly every single season since 2019, at age 34, naturally and for the first time in his career he’s on pace to be in the negatives. Could be sample size, I’d give that 20 coin flips. Heads on all, 20 sample size. Tails on any of the coin flips, Father Time.

I don’t see how a trade to pick up another bat would hurt the team considering the cost would be minimal. The asking price won’t exactly be Chris sale. If it’s a bust then he’ll join 3 other scrubs. We can also go off the career splits of burger where he has an OPS 174 points higher vs left handed pitchers at 813. 
 

he might not be available if the rangers are in contention, we might not even need him if Turner turns back the clock to 2024, he’s one of probably many other names I can list, but for the sake of upgrading the lineup vs left handed starters I see it as the cheapest and easiest upgrade to make even if only marginal. 

Edited June 17, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Banedon]

I know that pitching is rightfully going to be the Cubs focus for the trade deadline, but what if they could do get a bat too?  Maybe while talking about Zac Gallen, see if you could get Suarez as a rental?  Shaw may be a longer term answer, but for this year, it'd be nice to get some actual offensive production from 3B.

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I don’t see how a trade to pick up another bat would hurt the team considering the cost would be minimal. The asking price won’t exactly be Chris sale. If it’s a bust then he’ll join 3 other scrubs. We can also go off the career splits of burger where he has an OPS 174 points higher vs left handed pitchers at 813. 
 

he might not be available if the rangers are in contention, we might not even need him if Turner turns back the clock to 2024, he’s one of probably many other names I can list, but for the sake of upgrading the lineup vs left handed starters I see it as the cheapest and easiest upgrade to make even if only marginal.

He's another bat, but you can't carry both of them, so it goes back to this comparison. I don't know where this .813 OPS/174 points higher thing is, he's a .796 OPS v Turner's .816 career against LHPs.

The Cubs are 7th in wRC against LHPs this year. The main reason it isn't higher isn't because of Turner's 89 wRC in 54 PAs, it's because of PCAs 61 wRC in 83 PAs or extreme outliers like Busch at 25 wRC in 37 PAs. 

This is just mediocre RHB for mediocre RHB because we all watched 30 PAs in April and some of us got tired of it. If we someone want to make short side of 1B platoon a priority, we can do better. The below list (2023-2025 v LHP, minimum 100 PAs) is littered with LHP killers that are better than both Turner (84th) and Burger (147th).

[musclemom]

Health

[NorthsideAvenger]

Apparently the Cubs checked in on Devers before he was dealt. I doubt they would have traded for him but I think it shows the Cubs are looking for another bat. 

 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Apparently the Cubs checked in on Devers before he was dealt. I doubt they would have traded for him but I think it shows the Cubs are looking for another bat. 

 

My take on that means the Cubs are not afraid to have a large mega year contract on their books. Which is good news in their pursuit of Tucker. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

 

 

 

34 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

My take on that means the Cubs are not afraid to have a large mega year contract on their books. Which is good news in their pursuit of Tucker. 

I had not thought about that. Interesting.

But with Levine keeps saying the Cubs are trading for a starter soon (does not sound like it will be Alcantara), I wonder if a Suarez and Kelly or Gallen package could be something they are pursing?