Cubs (Horton) vs Nationals (Trevor Williams): 6/3/25, 5:45pm

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Spent a few minutes being worried about Happ this morning. The BB and K rates are fine, even improved a little (slightly worse in walks but significantly better in K rate). Slugging is obviously the problem, but was encouraged by the fact that at this point last year he was at .232/.335/.392/.323 wOBA/109 wRC (v .251/.342/.351/.313 wOBA/101 wRC with a .337 xwOBA this year). This is about the time last year he got hot (.250/.388/.525 the rest of June, .254/.348/.476 the rest of the year), so hoping he's still just a warm weather guy. But would like to see more slug even if it comes with a few more Ks. 

Power is always the streakiest aspect of a hitter, and as you pointed out he's underperforming his xwOBA by a healthy amount.

[Derwood]

Happ's power is annoying, but when 5 of your starting 9 have SLG above .500, you can manage it

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Power is always the streakiest aspect of a hitter, and as you pointed out he's underperforming his xwOBA by a healthy amount.

Yeah, I'm far from being the Savant/batted ball guy, but the little thing where you compare the metrics from 2024 to 2025 in terms of EV, barrel %, etc aren't pretty. Guessing/hoping that if you were to compare April/May 2024 to April/May 2025 you'd probably end up in a similar spot. .337 xwOBA is still fine, it's lower than any of his wOBA or xwOBA numbers from 2023 and 2024 but people age. The combo of underperformance AND the baserunning metrics flipping AND the fielding numbers being on pace for a pretty ghastly number adds up to a pretty grim year thus far. But, like Hoerner and Swanson, he's more than earned the right to have me expect him to come out of this with a hot streak or two the next couple months.  

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah, I'm far from being the Savant/batted ball guy, but the little thing where you compare the metrics from 2024 to 2025 in terms of EV, barrel %, etc aren't pretty. Guessing/hoping that if you were to compare April/May 2024 to April/May 2025 you'd probably end up in a similar spot. .337 xwOBA is still fine, it's lower than any of his wOBA or xwOBA numbers from 2023 and 2024 but people age. The combo of underperformance AND the baserunning metrics flipping AND the fielding numbers being on pace for a pretty ghastly number adds up to a pretty grim year thus far. But, like Hoerner and Swanson, he's more than earned the right to have me expect him to come out of this with a hot streak or two the next couple months.  

Probably also worth adding in the injury derailing things a bit for him. I expect there will be a week (when, who knows?) where he really wakes up and hits like four home runs. He tends to do that; really carry the offense for a stretch or two. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Probably also worth adding in the injury derailing things a bit for him. I expect there will be a week (when, who knows?) where he really wakes up and hits like four home runs. He tends to do that; really carry the offense for a stretch or two. 

This is my feelings as well. I am not really worried about Happ. If anything I am kind of excited to know they are playing this well and they still have a Happ hot streak. I believe before his injury he was coming on. I think the last 2 days before he finally sat he didn’t do much, but I also think he was trying to play through something them. But the week to 10 days prior to that, he was beating up. I expect an extended hit streak from Happ is coming soon. Maybe the homestand or before then. IMO, he will be fine. 

[PeanutPunch33]

17 hours ago, JHBulls said:

Different injuries. 

An athlete coming back to game action from an ACL inside six months is something you can see happening. Because we already have seen it with Kyle Schwarber, amongst other athletes sooner than Kyle. A player on a team I support did his ACL in March 2024 and returned in September. 

But six months from TJ surgery? You would be hard pressed to find anyone returning to action before 12 months. We wont see Steele back this year. 

Very true.  Damn, I didn't know Steely got TJ again.  I read that it was just "elbow surgery" but the articles didn't specify.  That really really sucks.  

[mul21]

5 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Very true.  Damn, I didn't know Steely got TJ again.  I read that it was just "elbow surgery" but the articles didn't specify.  That really really sucks.  

It wasn't TJS. He had a revision done with an internal brace.

Quote

In recent years, a new surgical technique has become increasingly popular. It’s called the internal brace, where an athlete’s existing UCL is reinforced with a tape-like suture that is anchored into the humerus and ulna. The internal brace can serve as a Tommy John alternative for athletes who have not completely torn their UCL. MLB players such as Lucas Giolito and infielder Trevor Story are among those who have recently had the internal brace procedure, but it is more common for amateur players, Bowman said.

 

[PeanutPunch33]

4 minutes ago, mul21 said:

It wasn't TJS. He had a revision done with an internal brace.

 

That makes sense, thanks for that information. 

[JHBulls]

Well colour me surprised. I thought it was TJ. There you go. 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

Well colour me surprised. I thought it was TJ. There you go. 

Doesn’t really change the timeline, or does it?

Edited June 4, 2025 by Rcal10

[JHBulls]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Doesn’t really change the timeline, or does it?

No, I don’t think it would. Justin will still miss the entire year.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

No, I don’t think it would. Justin will still miss the entire year.

From what I read, he will also miss the first 2 months of next year. 

[Bertz]

Given the timing a real TJ surgery would have knocked him out all of next year, particularly because it's his second.  So it actually does matter quite a bit.