Cubs (Taillon) vs Marlins (Weathers): 5/20/25, 5:40pm

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Really like Gore and Alcantara believe they'll be high cost meaning they're probably out of the picture for Hoyer.  Williams, Heaney and Freeland are more in Hoyer' bargin bin wheelhouse, which sucks because a TOR starter would make the Cubs a serious threat in the post season.

I'm usually one to preach patience, but I just feel like big picture decisions are going to need to be made soon. You've got two top five outfielders in baseball, one with years of team control and one who the entire fanbase wants to give all the money to, and then two behind them that are also very good and signed comfortably through next year. You can't just let Caissie and Alcantara (and probably Ballesteros) sit in Iowa until 2027. If you think that the current offense in Chicago can threaten for a championship in the next few years, you've got a lot of talent in Iowa without spots (and you've got this theoretical money under the cap this year 'earmarked' for in season additions). Sitting at 29-20 with the toughest schedule YTD (still) should lead you to that conclusion. Kicking ass for the next few weeks should help even more. 

If you don't think this is the group for you (or all the doomsayers were right and payroll is being permanently slashed), then you realistically ride out this year (even worst case scenario I can't see them being sellers, barring a collapse) and hope you get lucky with a flawed roster, let Tucker walk, put Happ, Suzuki, and Hoerner on the market and start next year with a line up of like PCA/Moises/Busch/Shaw/Caissie/Alcantara/Long/Swanson/Amaya and whatever pitching you can buy. This is not what I would pick, to be clear, that's a 76 win, 'up and coming' punt of a team. 

So, in conclusion, force the front office's hand. Go be 50-35 or something at the end of June. It's right there for them. 

[gflore34]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm usually one to preach patience, but I just feel like big picture decisions are going to need to be made soon. You've got two top five outfielders in baseball, one with years of team control and one who the entire fanbase wants to give all the money to, and then two behind them that are also very good and signed comfortably through next year. You can't just let Caissie and Alcantara (and probably Ballesteros) sit in Iowa until 2027. If you think that the current offense in Chicago can threaten for a championship in the next few years, you've got a lot of talent in Iowa without spots (and you've got this theoretical money under the cap this year 'earmarked' for in season additions). Sitting at 29-20 with the toughest schedule YTD (still) should lead you to that conclusion. Kicking ass for the next few weeks should help even more. 

If you don't think this is the group for you (or all the doomsayers were right and payroll is being permanently slashed), then you realistically ride out this year (even worst case scenario I can't see them being sellers, barring a collapse) and hope you get lucky with a flawed roster, let Tucker walk, put Happ, Suzuki, and Hoerner on the market and start next year with a line up of like PCA/Moises/Busch/Shaw/Caissie/Alcantara/Long/Swanson/Amaya and whatever pitching you can buy. This is not what I would pick, to be clear, that's a 76 win, 'up and coming' punt of a team. 

So, in conclusion, force the front office's hand. Go be 50-35 or something at the end of June. It's right there for them. 

I think they'll be at that, there's a real shot in the NL for the Cubs.  I still maintain the super team Dodgers are old and brittle, really don't think they'll be threat everyone thinks.  Cubs are right there with the Mets, Phillies, Padres and Diamondbacks, could beat any of them, most especially with Hoyer, biting the bullet, and doing what it takes to acquire a true front line SP.

[Jason Ross]

28 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

The playoff bullpen will be much different. A few starters we have who have been solid might be part of the bullpen in the playoffs (if we get there). 

Perhaps. But even then, they'll have to work themselves into a trusting position. I like Ben Brown, but the reality is even in the BP, his control can be an issue. Stuff is awesome, but trust will reign supreme. 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Perhaps. But even then, they'll have to work themselves into a trusting position. I like Ben Brown, but the reality is even in the BP, his control can be an issue. Stuff is awesome, but trust will reign supreme. 

I realize you're talking control in the sense that goes beyond just balls and strikes, but he's now gone three of his last four starts without a walk, 1.09 BB/9 in his last 5 starts. For all the (mostly deserved) grief the bullpen gets (19th in walk rate), the starters have been pretty fantastic at limiting free passes (1st in the majors after yesterday). 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There are 48 games til the All-Star break, at which point you can say that's 'trade season' and all teams are ready to make moves(though their direction may be uncertain).  So that's 9-10 times through the rotation, ~30% of the season.  The gap between a very strong starter and a 1+ WAR starter that we'd likely be replacing(at least on expectations) over that period is basically 1 win exactly.  Well before then we'll get Shota back, and I also suspect that there isn't really an internal worry about Boyd starting through the season despite his 2024 workload.  Unless there's a new injury I don't really see much urgency to try to make trades that almost certainly aren't available in May/June. 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I realize you're talking control in the sense that goes beyond just balls and strikes, but he's now gone three of his last four starts without a walk, 1.09 BB/9 in his last 5 starts. For all the (mostly deserved) grief the bullpen gets (19th in walk rate), the starters have been pretty fantastic at limiting free passes (1st in the majors after yesterday). 

Yeah, I think that's part of the issue though. He's not walking hitters. What he is doing is piping his fastball down the middle. His edge % is down 4% from last year, and conversely his meatball % and zone contact are both up. He's getting killed in the heart of the zone. This is typical from "I don't know where I'm throwing it" pitchers - they compensate walks for "here's a strike!" pitches. but those "here's a strike" pitches are generally in bad spots on their own. He's giving up a lot of hits, He's given up nine barrels over his last 24 IP which is double what he gave up his first 24 IP. 

He's got to find the middle ground. This version is going to get hit to death.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

There are 48 games til the All-Star break, at which point you can say that's 'trade season' and all teams are ready to make moves(though their direction may be uncertain).  So that's 9-10 times through the rotation, ~30% of the season.  The gap between a very strong starter and a 1+ WAR starter that we'd likely be replacing(at least on expectations) over that period is basically 1 win exactly.  Well before then we'll get Shota back, and I also suspect that there isn't really an internal worry about Boyd starting through the season despite his 2024 workload.  Unless there's a new injury I don't really see much urgency to try to make trades that almost certainly aren't available in May/June. 

I think my urgency is basically Horton and Brown both represent a talent level that could play in October, but given the current situation I don't see how you're going to be able to use them much past the ASB. I'm certainly not going to say no to a Gore type pitcher, but even just adding a Heaney or Trevor Williams gives you so much more flexibility and ability to be gentle with Horton and Brown. 

You're right in that there's plenty of reasons these trades don't happen in May/June, but I don't see the current pitching staff situation as like, just trying to endure a tough stretch. I think it's going to get worse, because I think Horton and Brown hitting 100 innings within a few weeks of Shota coming back more than offsets the improvement that Shota brings. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think my urgency is basically Horton and Brown both represent a talent level that could play in October, but given the current situation I don't see how you're going to be able to use them much past the ASB. I'm certainly not going to say no to a Gore type pitcher, but even just adding a Heaney or Trevor Williams gives you so much more flexibility and ability to be gentle with Horton and Brown. 

You're right in that there's plenty of reasons these trades don't happen in May/June, but I don't see the current pitching staff situation as like, just trying to endure a tough stretch. I think it's going to get worse, because I think Horton and Brown hitting 100 innings within a few weeks of Shota coming back more than offsets the improvement that Shota brings. 

I'm sensitive to the idea that the status quo can't go on indefinitely, even before the injuries I thought the biggest offseason issue was the investment in the rotation(though Boyd's put some of that at ease).  But I also think that if the team sees a workload cliff to steer away from the way you're describing, they would not have taken some of the steps they did this year.  They didn't have to start with Brown in the rotation over Rea, or have Horton go deeper in games than he has as a professional, or call up Horton over Wicks, etc.  That they made those moves still could mean they believe they're borrowing from September to do so, but I think it does mean they aren't borrowing from June.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm sensitive to the idea that the status quo can't go on indefinitely, even before the injuries I thought the biggest offseason issue was the investment in the rotation(though Boyd's put some of that at ease).  But I also think that if the team sees a workload cliff to steer away from the way you're describing, they would not have taken some of the steps they did this year.  They didn't have to start with Brown in the rotation over Rea, or have Horton go deeper in games than he has as a professional, or call up Horton over Wicks, etc.  That they made those moves still could mean they believe they're borrowing from September to do so, but I think it does mean they aren't borrowing from June.

All fair. But I also think it's maybe giving them too much credit (and, trust me, I love giving them credit) to think that they did all this while also anticipating Steele going down for the year and Shota for over a month. Feel like there was a lot of talk of them going with a 6 man rotation early on, or at least were making those decisions based on how many days off were built into the early schedule. We've got a day off tomorrow, and then three days off between that and June 30th. It's a real tenuous situation now, and if we're going to have to fix it at some point anyways, I'm hoping they're doing what they can to kick the tires now. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

Really like Gore and Alcantara believe they'll be high cost meaning they're probably out of the picture for Hoyer.  Williams, Heaney and Freeland are more in Hoyer' bargin bin wheelhouse, which sucks because a TOR starter would make the Cubs a serious threat in the post season.

I think Alcantara is wanted on reputation rather than actual production. His era is around 7 right now. His K rate is under league average, his WHIP is 1.60 and his WAR is -.9. Plus he will cost a solid prospect or 2. He may end up here again. But IMO he isn’t worth the risk. I do like Gote. 

Edited May 21, 2025 by Rcal10