Cubs 2006 Guaranteed Contracts and Arbitration Eligible

[HoopsCubs]

As you begin to think about trades (as either buyers or sellers), it might be beneficial to know what the Cubs guaranteed contract situation and arbitration eligibility situation is for 2006 to get an insight into payroll flexibility. Here's a quick update based on some research I did:

 

The Cubs are presently locked into 8 contracts for 2006 totalling $51.6M:

 

$12.00M - Wood

$ 9.00M - Maddux (I made the assumption that his option would vest)

$10.75M - Ramirez

$ 8.67M - Lee

$ 3.55M - Prior (I made the assumption that he wouldn't qualify to void his deal and go to arbitration)

$ 4.13M - Barrett

$ 2.00M - Rusch (assume bullpen in 2006)

$ 1.50M - Blanco

 

In addition, they will owe buyouts to 2 players totalling $5.0M:

 

$ 0.50M - Burnitz

$ 4.50M - Sosa (per the terms on the deal with Baltimore)

 

The Cubs have 5 players eligible for arbitration, which include Zambrano, Patterson, Borowski, Hairston and Macias. Let's assume that all are locks to be back except Borowski. Those 4 are making $9.2M combined in 2005. Let's be generous and say they get a 50% increase next year, so the total will be $13.7M:

 

$ 5.6M - Zambrano

$ 4.2M - Patterson

$ 2.7M - Hairston (assume utility guy)

$ 1.2M - Macias (assume utility guy)

 

 

So, the Cubs have 12 players, and they have committed $70.3M.

 

Assuming $105M payroll (and 12 pitchers), that gives them $34.7M to spend on 13 players:

 

1 starting pitcher

2 starting corner OFs

1 starting SS

1 starting 2B

1 closer

2 bench players

5 relief pitchers

 

Let's assume Bartosh, Ohman, Wellemeyer and Wuertz are 4 of the relief pitchers and Dubois is one of the starting OFs, each making the league minimum of ~$350K. Also assume that the Cubs re-sign Neifi Perez for a utility role at $1.95M.

 

The Cubs now have $31M to spend on 7 key players:

 

1 starting pitcher

1 starting corner OF

1 starting SS

1 starting 2B

1 closer

1 relief pitcher

1 bench player

 

Now, let the creativity flow in terms of midseason and offseason trades, signings, etc....

 

 

Enjoy!

Hoops

[goonys evil twin]

The Cubs now have $31M to spend on 7 key players:

 

1 starting pitcher

1 starting corner OF

1 starting SS

1 starting 2B

1 closer

1 relief pitcher

1 bench player

 

Now, let the creativity flow in terms of midseason and offseason trades, signings, etc....

 

 

Enjoy!

Hoops

 

First off, if I bring Hairston back, it's as the starting 2B, not a utility man. The Cubs don't need multiple $1+ utility men. I think they can bring up a starting pitcher making the minimum, maybe Hill or Pinto. And Cedeno might be ready to start at SS next year if he continues to show good numbers in AAA. So, I'd focus on corner OF, a bench player and the bullpen. If Williamson looks good by October, I'd really consider bringing him back. If Dempster has a solid season at closer, I would not hesitate to resign him. Although if somebody tries to make him a $8 million closer, then I simply offer arbitration and let him walk. I guess I'll have to think about the corner OF and bench player though.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Why not start Hairston at 2nd. I also think that Walker has some sort of option on his contract. I believe it was a player option and he said that he would probably accept it. Fontenot might also be an option at the 2nd base/utility man if he keeps up his numbers.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why not start Hairston at 2nd. I also think that Walker has some sort of option on his contract. I believe it was a player option and he said that he would probably accept it. Fontenot might also be an option at the 2nd base/utility man if he keeps up his numbers.

 

Walker has a team option that can vest with a certain number of Plate Appearances (525 I believe). I really doubt it vests with his injury plus sharing some time with Hairston. Speaking of Hairston, I don't want him back in a starting role. He just doesn't create enough extra bases to have him in a starting role.

[cubs_2 thousand_nchamps]

walker should stay at second and dump the hariston boy

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Why not start Hairston at 2nd. I also think that Walker has some sort of option on his contract. I believe it was a player option and he said that he would probably accept it. Fontenot might also be an option at the 2nd base/utility man if he keeps up his numbers.

 

Walker has a team option that can vest with a certain number of Plate Appearances (525 I believe). I really doubt it vests with his injury plus sharing some time with Hairston. Speaking of Hairston, I don't want him back in a starting role. He just doesn't create enough extra bases to have him in a starting role.

I thought he also had the option of accepting it if it didn't kick in automatically.

[Tedward]

Hoops,

 

I'd like a big bat in the corner OF position. Are they any big time bats available via FA this offseason? My recollection was no. I recall that Berkman was a possibility but he re-upped with Houston.

 

So that leads me to the next thought. Are there any 5th and 6th year arbitration studs out there that poor teams might try to deal off because they are cost prohibitive to resign?

[SouthSideRyan]

I believe Hendry said earlier this past offseason that that 4.5M to Sammy counted towards '05's payroll.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hoops,

 

I'd like a big bat in the corner OF position. Are they any big time bats available via FA this offseason? My recollection was no. I recall that Berkman was a possibility but he re-upped with Houston.

 

So that leads me to the next thought. Are there any 5th and 6th year arbitration studs out there that poor teams might try to deal off because they are cost prohibitive to resign?

 

IIRC, there isn't much outside of Brian Giles in the Free Agent market.

 

Using a very loose definition of "stud", here's some outfielders heading into their 5th and 6th year:

 

Adam Dunn 5th

Brady Clark 5th

Milton Bradley 6th

Eric Byrnes 5th

Bobby Kielty 5th

Aubrey Huff(6th year, but guaranteed 7.5 mil as part of previous extension)

Brad Wilkerson 5th

Austin Kearns 5th

Craig Wilson 6th

[Wheelimus]

In fact I remember him saying that all buyouts count towards that years salary. So that's a cool 5 mil to put back into the pot for next year...

 

I believe Hendry said earlier this past offseason that that 4.5M to Sammy counted towards '05's payroll.

[Tedward]

Hoops,

 

I'd like a big bat in the corner OF position. Are they any big time bats available via FA this offseason? My recollection was no. I recall that Berkman was a possibility but he re-upped with Houston.

 

So that leads me to the next thought. Are there any 5th and 6th year arbitration studs out there that poor teams might try to deal off because they are cost prohibitive to resign?

 

IIRC, there isn't much outside of Brian Giles in the Free Agent market.

 

Using a very loose definition of "stud", here's some outfielders heading into their 5th and 6th year:

 

 

 

Adam Dunn 5th

Brady Clark 5th

Milton Bradley 6th

Eric Byrnes 5th

Bobby Kielty 5th

Aubrey Huff(6th year, but guaranteed 7.5 mil as part of previous extension)

Brad Wilkerson 5th

Austin Kearns 5th

Craig Wilson 6th

 

Thanks. Some of the usual suspects that have been previously been thrown around in this forum......Dunn, Huff, Kearns, and even Wilkerson. Dunn and Wilkerson would be nice of course. Kearns has had trouble staying healthy.

 

One young guy who I like and will be a first year arbitration eligible next year is Kevin Mench from TEX. TEX might be inclined to deal him for some pitching. I'm not sure though that he would be that great of an upgrade over Dubois in the long run though.

[Diffusion]

To an extent, I hope Maddux isn't around next year. Well, no, I hope Maddux is around next year, but as the pitching coach. I love the guy to bits, but his pitching these days just isn't worth $9m in my view.

 

I'd love...

 

$3.55m Prior

$5.6m Zambrano

$12m Wood

$0.33m Williams

$0.33m Guzman or $3.2m Rusch

 

$4.13m Barrett

$8.67m Lee

$2.5m Walker (picks up player option)

$10.75m Ramirez

SS

LF

$4.2m Corey

RF

 

$0.33m Four from Wuertz, Welly, Van Buren, Aardsma, Novoa

$0.33m Ohman, Pinto or Hill

$2m Williamson

$0.33m Guzman or $3.2m Rusch (ie. whichever's not starting. If Guzman's still injured buy another reliever, maybe an expensive one)

 

$1.5m Blanco

$0.33m Cedeno

$2m Hairston (learn to play SS and 3B!)

$0.33m Dubois

$1m Grieve

$1m Hollandsworth

 

That I think adds up to about $65m. Which leaves a whopping $35m to spend on the corner outfield positions and shortstop! I wouldn't mind if we brought back Nomar for another roll of the dice, and then Mench and Dunn in the corners would be fine with me if the Rangers and Reds are so keen to part with them! Dunn we all know about. Kevin Mench though is a stud too, a true .300 hitter with 30 home run power. If we could acquire him for pitching prospects (say Mitre and Leicester), that'd rock! Aw, shucks, now I'm about $20m under budget as well. We could afford Maddux if we wanted to then. I just don't see where he fits in. I don't want him blocking Williams and Guzman.

[Knyption]

that gives us a ton of room to trade for some good guys from teams who want to dump salary..

 

nice work hoops

[biittner77]

Let's assume Bartosh, Ohman, Wellemeyer and Wuertz are 4 of the relief pitchers and Dubois is one of the starting OFs, each making the league minimum of ~$350K. Also assume that the Cubs re-sign Neifi Perez for a utility role at $1.95M.

 

The Cubs now have $31M to spend on 7 key players:

 

1 starting pitcher

1 starting corner OF

1 starting SS

1 starting 2B

1 closer

1 relief pitcher

1 bench player

 

Assuming Maddux is still here, Rusch is the 5th starter and one of Hill, Mitre, Pinto, Guzman takes the last BP spot.

 

Fontenot is the bench player.

 

2nd, SS and corner OF are interconnected. 2 of these guys need to be able to bat 1-2 while the other provides middle of the order power. Making for lots of possibilities.

 

Leaves plenty of money to pay Wagner if they want to. Ditto for Giles.

[moorecg]

Macias is originally on the list as 1.2 mil for next year....Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think he's under contract, so why would we voluntarly sign him for 1.2 mill when the Cubs could get my 7 year old nephew(for a set of baseball cards and a season's supply of soda and cotton candy) to match his production?

 

Now Neifi on the other hand...I know he's been given all kinds of grief on this board at different times...but he's really been a life saver this year.

[badgercub]

Macias is originally on the list as 1.2 mil for next year....Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think he's under contract, so why would we voluntarly sign him for 1.2 mill when the Cubs could get my 7 year old nephew(for a set of baseball cards and a season's supply of soda and cotton candy) to match his production?

 

Now Neifi on the other hand...I know he's been given all kinds of grief on this board at different times...but he's really been a life saver this year.

 

Yeah I think I would dump Macias and keep Perez as your back up middle infielder, although, with the year he is having someone may offer him a starting job somewhere and he may become too expensive. I would also either move Rusch into the starting rotation or fill the need from within the organization. If Dempster has a solid rest of the year I would consider resigning him. I guess a lot of things are going to be determined by how the bidding for Wagner goes and how well some of these guys finish the season out.

[craig]

The Cubs are presently locked into 8 contracts for 2006 totalling $51.6M:

 

$12.00M - Wood

$ 9.00M - Maddux (I made the assumption that his option would vest)

$10.75M - Ramirez

$ 8.67M - Lee

$ 3.55M - Prior (I made the assumption that he wouldn't qualify to void his deal and go to arbitration)

$ 4.13M - Barrett

$ 2.00M - Rusch (assume bullpen in 2006)

$ 1.50M - Blanco

 

In addition, they will owe buyouts to 2 players totalling $5.0M:

 

$ 0.50M - Burnitz

$ 4.50M - Sosa (per the terms on the deal with Baltimore)

 

...

Enjoy!

Hoops

 

Notes on the numbers you're using as your starting points:

1. As noted byothers above, Hendry has stated pretty explicitly that Sosa's $4.5 is handled this year and will not be docked against next year.

 

2. Rusch can opt out of his contract after this season. Given how well he's been pitching, I don't think there's much likelihood that he'll be on the books for $2. I'd expect a large raise for him, either with us or elsewhere via free agency. Prediction: Cubs resign.

 

3. Walker's opt-out has almost zero chance to vest, given the AB's he's already lost to injury. The Cubs would have no cost to waive him, but he'd cost only $2.5 to bring back. Prediction: Cubs bring him back.

 

4. There are indications that Hendry works his budget on a cash-flow basis, which can sometimes differ from mlb numbers which pro-rate signing bonuses. While Prior may list as 3.55 using proration, he may be only 2.75 on Hendry's 2006 ledger?

 

5. Last winter, Hendry talked as if Sosa's buyout would count against 2005, not 2006, even had he not been traded. That may have been a special case. But if that's Hendry's general policy, then a Burnitz buyout might count against 2005, not 2006.

 

Sometimes when it gets down to cases and to the last player or two of the winter, a few millions hear or there can make the difference. So these detail things could end up being important eventually.

 

For now, though, the bottom line seems qualitatively similar: Hendry's going to have a lot of money to work with this summer, and not really that many holes to fill.

 

What makes it even better is that as it looks now, he may have perfectly reasonable economy/performance fallbacks at each of the holes.

*2b: Walker/hairston, not a problem to go with them and focus money elsewhere.

*SS: With Cedeno looking so good, the notion of going thrifty with Neifi/Cedeno and spending elsewhere isn't the worst idea.

*OF: The idea of going thrifty with Pie/Dubois/Murton in one of the outfield spots and spending elsewhere isn't the worst idea.

*Rotation: The idea of going with Rusch as a mid-price but not Burnett-type price and spending big elsewhere isn't unreasonable.

*Closer: Time will tell, but at present it looks plausible to go with Dempster as a mid-price guy rather than spending for a big-ticket Wagner type.

*OF #2: I don't imagine they'll pick up Burnitz's option at $7 (although it's not altogether impossible). But if they have other exciting ways to spend big money, the possibility of coming back with Burnitz at a mid-price ($4-5?) isn't terrible either.

 

Point: Hendry's got a lot to work with. But if he wants to focus in on one or two really big-ticket guys, he seems well-positioned to fill the other places with reasonable value/dollar support players.

[CuseCubFan69]

The Cubs are presently locked into 8 contracts for 2006 totalling $51.6M:

 

$12.00M - Wood

$ 9.00M - Maddux (I made the assumption that his option would vest)

$10.75M - Ramirez

$ 8.67M - Lee

$ 3.55M - Prior (I made the assumption that he wouldn't qualify to void his deal and go to arbitration)

$ 4.13M - Barrett

$ 2.00M - Rusch (assume bullpen in 2006)

$ 1.50M - Blanco

 

In addition, they will owe buyouts to 2 players totalling $5.0M:

 

$ 0.50M - Burnitz

$ 4.50M - Sosa (per the terms on the deal with Baltimore)

 

...

Enjoy!

Hoops

 

Notes on the numbers you're using as your starting points:

1. As noted byothers above, Hendry has stated pretty explicitly that Sosa's $4.5 is handled this year and will not be docked against next year.

 

2. Rusch can opt out of his contract after this season. Given how well he's been pitching, I don't think there's much likelihood that he'll be on the books for $2. I'd expect a large raise for him, either with us or elsewhere via free agency. Prediction: Cubs resign.

 

3. Walker's opt-out has almost zero chance to vest, given the AB's he's already lost to injury. The Cubs would have no cost to waive him, but he'd cost only $2.5 to bring back. Prediction: Cubs bring him back.

 

4. There are indications that Hendry works his budget on a cash-flow basis, which can sometimes differ from mlb numbers which pro-rate signing bonuses. While Prior may list as 3.55 using proration, he may be only 2.75 on Hendry's 2006 ledger?

 

5. Last winter, Hendry talked as if Sosa's buyout would count against 2005, not 2006, even had he not been traded. That may have been a special case. But if that's Hendry's general policy, then a Burnitz buyout might count against 2005, not 2006.

 

Sometimes when it gets down to cases and to the last player or two of the winter, a few millions hear or there can make the difference. So these detail things could end up being important eventually.

 

For now, though, the bottom line seems qualitatively similar: Hendry's going to have a lot of money to work with this summer, and not really that many holes to fill.

 

What makes it even better is that as it looks now, he may have perfectly reasonable economy/performance fallbacks at each of the holes.

*2b: Walker/hairston, not a problem to go with them and focus money elsewhere.

*SS: With Cedeno looking so good, the notion of going thrifty with Neifi/Cedeno and spending elsewhere isn't the worst idea.

*OF: The idea of going thrifty with Pie/Dubois/Murton in one of the outfield spots and spending elsewhere isn't the worst idea.

*Rotation: The idea of going with Rusch as a mid-price but not Burnett-type price and spending big elsewhere isn't unreasonable.

*Closer: Time will tell, but at present it looks plausible to go with Dempster as a mid-price guy rather than spending for a big-ticket Wagner type.

*OF #2: I don't imagine they'll pick up Burnitz's option at $7 (although it's not altogether impossible). But if they have other exciting ways to spend big money, the possibility of coming back with Burnitz at a mid-price ($4-5?) isn't terrible either.

 

Point: Hendry's got a lot to work with. But if he wants to focus in on one or two really big-ticket guys, he seems well-positioned to fill the other places with reasonable value/dollar support players.

 

Darn..Rusch's contract is a mutual one? I don't remember that.

[Backtobanks]

*Closer: Time will tell, but at present it looks plausible to go with Dempster as a mid-price guy rather than spending for a big-ticket Wagner type.

 

 

Besides, if we show any interest in Wagner, his arm will probably fall off (see Percival, Benitez, Dotel, etc.).

[rawaction]

 

What makes it even better is that as it looks now, he may have perfectly reasonable economy/performance fallbacks at each of the holes.

*2b: Walker/hairston, not a problem to go with them and focus money elsewhere.

*SS: With Cedeno looking so good, the notion of going thrifty with Neifi/Cedeno and spending elsewhere isn't the worst idea.

*OF: The idea of going thrifty with Pie/Dubois/Murton in one of the outfield spots and spending elsewhere isn't the worst idea.

*Rotation: The idea of going with Rusch as a mid-price but not Burnett-type price and spending big elsewhere isn't unreasonable.

*Closer: Time will tell, but at present it looks plausible to go with Dempster as a mid-price guy rather than spending for a big-ticket Wagner type.

*OF #2: I don't imagine they'll pick up Burnitz's option at $7 (although it's not altogether impossible). But if they have other exciting ways to spend big money, the possibility of coming back with Burnitz at a mid-price ($4-5?) isn't terrible either.

 

Point: Hendry's got a lot to work with. But if he wants to focus in on one or two really big-ticket guys, he seems well-positioned to fill the other places with reasonable value/dollar support players.

 

You think Burnitz' sub .800 OPS is worth $5M? I think the Cubs need one big bat in the OF. May have to trade for it, but the Cubs have ML ready pitching and experienced young, cheap players (Dubois, Patterson, Hairston) which are valuable when talking trades.

 

For the record, I don't think Walker will be back. If Hairston is still around, he gets the everyday job, and fits in well as more of a true leadoff option. Fontenot could be a solid cheap backup at 2B. I would like a better bat at SS than Cedeno, unless the OF bat is a really big one (see, Dunn, Adam). I'd see how cheap Nomar comes with another 1-year, incentive laden deal, and then go from there.

[Geech]

I would rather have Walker at 2nd than Hairston. Hairston doesn't have much, if any, edge in OBP and defense, and he's not a good base-stealer. Walker, on the other hand has a little bit of power, which is always a good thing.

[craig]

You think Burnitz' sub .800 OPS is worth $5M? I think the Cubs need one big bat in the OF. May have to trade for it, but the Cubs have ML ready pitching and experienced young, cheap players (Dubois, Patterson, Hairston) which are valuable when talking trades.

 

For the record, I don't think Walker will be back. If Hairston is still around, he gets the everyday job, and fits in well as more of a true leadoff option. Fontenot could be a solid cheap backup at 2B. I would like a better bat at SS than Cedeno, unless the OF bat is a really big one (see, Dunn, Adam). I'd see how cheap Nomar comes with another 1-year, incentive laden deal, and then go from there.

 

I don't see Burnitz being a desirable choice, and I'm not sure $5 is appropriate. But yes, I think it's conceivable that the Cubs might choose to resign Burnitz at a price that's performance appropriate, and perhaps in a time-share with Dubois or Murton or something.

 

I just think Hendry's in an ideal spot in that he's got some internal options, be they prospects (Dubois/Pie/Murton for OF, Cedeno for SS, Mitre/Guzman/Hill/Williams for rotation) or modest-priced veterans (Rusch, Walker, Burnitz, Dempster, Neifi), in hand. If he decides to spend his money on Giles, Wagner, and Burnett, it's not the end of the world to go with Walker, Neifi/Cedeno, and Pie.

 

The Cubs have sometimes talked about "filling holes", and "spread it around", when they had so many holes with no adequate internal options. Once they'd "spread it around", they had nothing left for big-ticket guys. I just feel like Hendry has enough options internally that he can adequately refill any of the holes and can reasonably expect performance that's not too far below league average, if at all. So he doesn't need to spread the money over all the spots.

 

He has the luxury of being able to focus $25-30 million on just 2-3 spots. whether those be OF, rotation, and closer; or OF, OF, and SS; or whatever.

 

Where I don't think Hendry's in an ideal spot is that I don't see real desirable, premium free agents available at the places we've got holes. Were a Tejada available, I'd be all gaga. Were a Beltran and Drew available as I saw them last winter, I'd be all gaga.

 

The two places I'd most like to target are a big bat for corner OF, and SS. But the pool of really desirable corner OFers seems really thin, both in terms of free agency and in terms of guys getting close enough to free agency so that their teams would consider trading them at reasonable cost.

 

And SS, there's Nomar and Furcal, not exactly like when ARod or Tejada were free.

 

Kind of reminds me of last winter; obvious hole was closer, but the pool of candidates at the prices required was terrible. (And we're probably fortunate that Hendry didn't spend a ton on Kolb or Benitez or Percival or Dotel...) I'm just worried that hendry will have money to spend, but there won't be the calibre of guys to spend it on. Or where there is somebody, the small supply will mean that there's tons of competition for the same guy, so the price becomes ridiculously high.

[YearofDaCubs]

Imagine having Furcal at SS and Walker at 2B. That's a pretty good 1-2 punch. No Furcal, then I would not mind to have Hairston as our starting 2B.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You see this sort of thread every single season, and here are a few things that will almost certainly happen that it doesn't account for:

 

1) An arbitration eligible player will sign an extension that pays him much more than he could have gotten in arbitration.

 

2) The bench players will be re-signed for more than they are worth (Neifi is the obvious choice here).

 

3) They won't go with the four cheap relief pitchers, they'll blow a few million on some mediocre ones "just in case"

 

4) The cheap starting pitchers will still have to have $2-4 million veterans backing them up "just in case"

 

5) If there's money to spend, we'll have to have a multi-million dollar veteran left fielder. I can't see Dubois just being handed the spot.

 

6) There will have to be a few million spent on a reclamation project starting pitcher (ala Estes, Dempster), although that may be covered under 4.

 

7) They will inevitably pay more to resign someone than we think they are worth. I would guess Burnitz or Walker (despite the options).

[craig]

Imagine having Furcal at SS and Walker at 2B. That's a pretty good 1-2 punch. No Furcal, then I would not mind to have Hairston as our starting 2B.

 

Furcal is having a horrible year, .229 BA, .281 OBP, .614 OPS.

Career prior to this year: .347 OBP, .751 OPS.