Spring Training Game Thread

[Jfoley89]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It might. But I'm also pretty sure that Smtih's assignment here is among the tougher ones we have seen. Hes barely accrued 20 PAs outside of high-A prior to ST, hes running a bad contact% in ST, and he's learning a new position. 

Maybe it all works out for him, but him being down in Triple-A by mid-May feels very realistic. 

Long term, hes a good prospect, but no one thinks he's generational. He can be a good player! And I doubt this first bit, even if it's rough, will be the decider in him. But I do think he's become one of the biggest risers I've seen in terms of evaluation from draft day (he went from mid-1st round pick to people thinking he can hit 40 home runs) and that's going to be a tough ceiling to hit.

I agree, but it will look a whole lot better with an extension.  If Shaw struggles and Tucker walks, and Smith hits the way they imagine, it's going to be a hard trade to swallow.  He could absolutely bust as well, but it's a bit rough to see at the moment.  

[Jason Ross]

33 minutes ago, Jfoley89 said:

I agree, but it will look a whole lot better with an extension.  If Shaw struggles and Tucker walks, and Smith hits the way they imagine, it's going to be a hard trade to swallow.  He could absolutely bust as well, but it's a bit rough to see at the moment.  

I think people overrate how bad this could or may hurt. There's a world where, yeah, Smith is like a 4 win perennial player, but thats probably the 90-95% outcome. 

Even if he doesn't extend, Smith is more likely to fall into the Eloy Jimenez/Gelyber Torres area of "had some good seasons but wasnt a star" type. I remember how badly everyone wished we had those guys, and they have had moments, and seasons, but havent really hit that highwater mark. And to get a year of Tucker, it might still sting a bit, but it's also pretty forgettable in the grand scheme of things. 

Im not saying you're the one specifically over valuing Smith here (I know youre rational!), it's just the overall I've been seeing, and your post happened to be one to respond to on it. It just feels like a hefty dose of overreaction from fans based on ST outcomes. And just a continuation of the yearly battle on fighting ST outcomes in general. Instead of hyper focusing on some random fringe player hitting well with the Cubs, it's a focus on a recently dealt prospect with not-the-Cubs.

[UMFan83]

The Cubs have won their first game against an MLB team since March 10th

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think people overrate how bad this could or may hurt. There's a world where, yeah, Smith is like a 4 win perennial player, but thats probably the 90-95% outcome. 

Even if he doesn't extend, Smith is more likely to fall into the Eloy Jimenez/Gelyber Torres area of "had some good seasons but wasnt a star" type. I remember how badly everyone wished we had those guys, and they have had moments, and seasons, but havent really hit that highwater mark. And to get a year of Tucker, it might still sting a bit, but it's also pretty forgettable in the grand scheme of things. 

Im not saying you're the one specifically over valuing Smith here (I know youre rational!), it's just the overall I've been seeing, and your post happened to be one to respond to on it. It just feels like a hefty dose of overreaction from fans based on ST outcomes. And just a continuation of the yearly battle on fighting ST outcomes in general. Instead of hyper focusing on some random fringe player hitting well with the Cubs, it's a focus on a recently dealt prospect with not-the-Cubs.

Agreed. He probably has a better chance at failing than he does becoming this star so many already have him to be. For fun, I looked at the top 20 prospects at the start of the 2019 season. Keep in mind, Smith isn’t even at that level. Anyway, some of the bats were Taylor Trammell, Robles, Senzel, Eloy, Kirilloff, Adell, Brendon Rodgers and Huira, Would anyone be upset if Smith turns into a guy like those guys? People are assuming he will be a star AND Tucker is only here for one year. 2 things that haven’t been decided yet. Personally think Smith is going to struggle. He has a lot of swing and miss in his game, only played about 25 games above A ball and is playing a new position. Astros are setting him up to fail, IMO. He may still hit some homers. It is Houston and the Crawford boxes. But he is going to have a hard time making consistent contact. Maybe he does turn into a solid everyday player. 🤷 But worrying about him being a star and criticizing the trade before all results are in is foolish. Especially because those who are criticizing it now will later praise it if Tucker does sign an extension or even leads the Cubs to the WS and Smith struggles. Houston wasn’t going to give Tucker away. There had to be a good prospect traded. They also got Paredes, who will do well in Houston. It was. and still is, a fair deal. It is the price you have to pay if you don’t grow your own star or spend on top FA, period.!

Edited March 25, 2025 by Rcal10

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Jfoley89 said:

Cam Smith is breaking camp with the Astros. This trade is gonna look rough if Tucker walks

I think they're sticking him in RF to replace Tucker.

A position he hasn't really played already puts him at a disadvantage at least in terms of WAR this year.  This is a pretty desperate move by the Astros.  I suppose the worst that happens is he just goes back down to the minors and takes up a 40-man spot.

Edited March 26, 2025 by Stratos

[muntjack]

I know this isn't big-brained analysis but, and I said it last summer,  Cam Smith just looks like a star.  Never thought he'd be up at this point, and I didn't hate the trade,  but if the guy is a stud I won't be at all surprised. 

[morrisjon]

4 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It might. But I'm also pretty sure that Smtih's assignment here is among the tougher ones we have seen. Hes barely accrued 20 PAs outside of high-A prior to ST, hes running a bad contact% in ST, and he's learning a new position. 

Maybe it all works out for him, but him being down in Triple-A by mid-May feels very realistic. 

Long term, hes a good prospect, but no one thinks he's generational. He can be a good player! And I doubt this first bit, even if it's rough, will be the decider in him. But I do think he's become one of the biggest risers I've seen in terms of evaluation from draft day (he went from mid-1st round pick to people thinking he can hit 40 home runs) and that's going to be a tough ceiling to hit.

Well the thought was that Smith was 2-3 years away from helping the ML team. If he's ready now, and more importantly, if he is a better player than Shaw right now, then that is a unbelievably huge mistake from our front office. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Agreed. He probably has a better chance at failing than he does becoming this star so many already have him to be. For fun, I looked at the top 20 prospects at the start of the 2019 season. Keep in mind, Smith isn’t even at that level. Anyway, some of the bats were Taylor Trammell, Robles, Senzel, Eloy, Kirilloff, Adell, Brendon Rodgers and Huira, Would anyone be upset if Smith turns into a guy like those guys? People are assuming he will be a star AND Tucker is only here for one year. 2 things that haven’t been decided yet. Personally think Smith is going to struggle. He has a lot of swing and miss in his game, only played about 25 games above A ball and is playing a new position. Astros are setting him up to fail, IMO. He may still hit some homers. It is Houston and the Crawford boxes. But he is going to have a hard time making consistent contact. Maybe he does turn into a solid everyday player. 🤷 But worrying about him being a star and criticizing the trade before all results are in is foolish. Especially because those who are criticizing it now will later praise it if Tucker does sign an extension or even leads the Cubs to the WS and Smith struggles. Houston wasn’t going to give Tucker away. There had to be a good prospect traded. They also got Paredes, who will do well in Houston. It was. and still is, a fair deal. It is the price you have to pay if you don’t grow your own star or spend on top FA, period.!

Yeah he could be the next Brennen Davis too.  If Smith eventually turned into a 3 WAR guy the Astros should be very happy with that.  He's a big guy so the glove could hold him back too, especially in the OF which he hasn't played.  Seems doubtful he's going to play much 3B with Paredes there for 3 seasons.

[Stratos]

15 minutes ago, morrisjon said:

Well the thought was that Smith was 2-3 years away from helping the ML team. If he's ready now, and more importantly, if he is a better player than Shaw right now, then that is a unbelievably huge mistake from our front office. 

Hindsight is 20/20 though.

[Bertz]

Even if Smith ulyimately ends up being awesome, I feel pretty comfortable saying this is a terrible idea.  Wyatt Langford had a 91 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR the first 5 months last year before going nuclear in September and salvaging his season.  Zach Neto didn't hit as a rookie.  Nolan Schanuel had a BABIP filled September callup before getting humbled last year.

There's just not any reason to think you can skip the upper minors and be better off for it.  Especially given that Smith's not likely to add a ton of value on defense.

[CubinNY]

20 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Hindsight is 20/20 though.

lol. It’s not hindsight if someone is talking about now. 
 

Obviously no one ever got rich betting on baseball prospects. But the Astros and the Cubs both think Smith is a fine prospect as do a lot of others who evaluate for a living.

It’s a trade the Cubs had to make due to their poor performance in developing talent. 

That doesn’t lesson the sting if Smith explodes or even becomes a solid everyday starter. If Tucker has a great season and they choose not to resign him or make a half hearted effort like they usually do and Smith flames out, that’s about the best they can hope for. 
 

The Cubs needed and still need sluggers. They are a collection of solid starters who need a star or two. 

Edited March 26, 2025 by CubinNY

[Stratos]

11 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

lol. It’s not hindsight if someone is talking about now. 

Everything that happens after the trade is hindsight.

Whether or not Tucker extends doesn't even go into the trade calculation.  What they traded for was exclusive negotiating rights with Tucker until this Nov.  They can't control if he's determined to go to FA regardless of the offer.

Quote

Obviously no one ever got rich betting on baseball prospects. But the Astros and the Cubs both think Smith is a fine prospect as do a lot of others who evaluate for a living.

Sure.  But Hoyer should be evaluated on the trade on the day its made.  He shouldn't get credit if Smith bombs and shouldn't get blamed if Tucker tears a hammy.  FO's aren't Nostradamus as you seem to agree.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Kelly, Berti, Workman, and Turner for the bench.

Brown is the 5th starter 

And an old bullpen, lol

Keller turning 30 during season,  theyll have 6 of 8 in their 30s, and four at age 35+

 

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Vidal Brujan can't hit and he is also striking out at a crazy rate this spring. Let his ass go. Who cares. 

[CubinNY]

20 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Everything that happens after the trade is hindsight.

Whether or not Tucker extends doesn't even go into the trade calculation.  What they traded for was exclusive negotiating rights with Tucker until this Nov.  They can't control if he's determined to go to FA regardless of the offer.

Sure.  But Hoyer should be evaluated on the trade on the day its made.  He shouldn't get credit if Smith bombs and shouldn't get blamed if Tucker tears a hammy.  FO's aren't Nostradamus as you seem to agree.

Blah, blah, blah horsefeathers blah. 

[Stratos]

Wouldn't it make sense to schedule 1 or 2 night games to finish ST if they're going to play 3 night games in a row to start the season?

[Stratos]

53 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Blah, blah, blah horsefeathers blah. 

[Rcal10]

27 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Wouldn't it make sense to schedule 1 or 2 night games to finish ST if they're going to play 3 night games in a row to start the season?

Maybe, but did anyone play night games today or yesterday? Aren’t all teams basically playing day games? I honestly do not know if the Dbacks played at night this week. I would think most teams would want to play a day game today to give themselves time to go wherever they needed to do to start the season. I realize the Cubs don’t have to go anywhere, nor do the Dbacks. But whoever they played did have to travel somewhere. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe, but did anyone play night games today or yesterday? Aren’t all teams basically playing day games? I honestly do not know if the Dbacks played at night this week. I would think most teams would want to play a day game today to give themselves time to go wherever they needed to do to start the season. I realize the Cubs don’t have to go anywhere, nor do the Dbacks. But whoever they played did have to travel somewhere. 

I just checked.  Dbacks played their last 2 spring games at Chase Field  and Monday was a night game.  That doesn't sound particularly fair lol. 

You're right though, if everyone played day games or same # of night games that would be fair.

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, morrisjon said:

Well the thought was that Smith was 2-3 years away from helping the ML team. If he's ready now, and more importantly, if he is a better player than Shaw right now, then that is a unbelievably huge mistake from our front office. 

When Cam Smith makes his MLB debut, only two position players will have ever taken less PAs in MiLB than him. Sure, it remains possible that Cam Smith is ready despite taking under 30 PAs in Double-A, despite not being a consensus top-50 prospect (below Shaw on most lists by 25+ places), and despite not even being a top-10 draft selection just a handful of months ago. But I mean...it's pretty unlikely that he is. This says far more about the state of the Astros than Cam Smith. I dont think there would be any camp Smith could have had with the Cubs and made their OD roster.

As Bertz pointed out, as of a few days ago, Smith was running a contact rate in ST of 64%. Im always on team "ST data barely matters", but if we want to look at his, say, OPS and be wow'ed, we should also look at that and understand his process behind the OPS is...not good, currently. A non-shocking revelation for a non-elite prospect based on industry ranking who's really never played above A-Ball. Its kind of to be expected. And signals that when things get real, when teams put more effort into attacking a hitters weakness rather than practicing that things will likely not go well for Smith for a while.

Another thing to remember - Gage Workman, a player who the Tigers exposed to the Rule V draft, and has never played above Double-A is having a similarly good ST and he might not even make the team. Yeah, he's a bit older, but point remains - I dont see anyone here under any impressions he's a star now that he had some good practice games. I'd like him to make the team, myself, but its more along the lines of I think he fits the roster and Brujan sucks. 

I wouldnt let ST change my opinion, in almost any case, on a player. This is a practice environment. If you thought Smith was ready in February, then that's a choice, but I wouldn't agree with you. I still don't think Smith is ready. Maybe I'll be wrong here...but it feels like the Astros are looking to catch lightning in a bottle more so than they are legitimately a believer that he's ready for the Show. For his sake I wish him the best, however. 

[CubinNY]

Workman and Smith are not comparable.

 The Cubs desperately needed a Tucker-type player, AND they gave up a good player to get him.

Shitting on Smith because he hasn't paid his dues doesn't change the equation. The Astros are not a poorly run organization. 

[Backtobanks]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Everything that happens after the trade is hindsight.

Whether or not Tucker extends doesn't even go into the trade calculation.  What they traded for was exclusive negotiating rights with Tucker until this Nov.  They can't control if he's determined to go to FA regardless of the offer.

Sure.  But Hoyer should be evaluated on the trade on the day its made.  He shouldn't get credit if Smith bombs and shouldn't get blamed if Tucker tears a hammy.  FO's aren't Nostradamus as you seem to agree.

Hoyer should have had a discussion with Ricketts about the likelihood of signing Tucker before making the trade.  Paredes and Smith for 1 year of Tucker was an overpay then and still is now.

[Jason Ross]

49 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Workman and Smith are not comparable.

 The Cubs desperately needed a Tucker-type player, AND they gave up a good player to get him.

Shitting on Smith because he hasn't paid his dues doesn't change the equation. The Astros are not a poorly run organization. 

So, I'm going to be very definitive with this: I have not been "shitting" on anyone - this is a pretty unfair way of characterizing the point of my posts. I have repeatedly say that for his sake I hope he does well, that I think he's a good prospect, have brought up his top-100 ranking, have explained multiple times I would say this about any prospect in the same situation as Smith...there is simply no "shitting" on him. The moment with his family was super cool and he seems like a good dude. As a person, I'm happy for him. 

Instead, let's recalibrate what my actual point is:
1. I don't think he's being put in a situation to succeed. It's not that he hasn't "paid his dues" it's that the best prospects on the planet, with more experience struggle at the highest level. Smith has no track record against Double-A pitching. - this is the highest level of baseball and he's skipped basically, everything between the "College World Series" and "hitting against Tarik Skubal". This is a recipe for bad outcomes. It doesn't mean it will happen, but that this is about the toughest assignment one could draw up for someone. And while Smith is a good prospect, he's not been considered to be the same level as better prospects who had more experience and struggled heavily. If this constitutes shitting on him, then I guess I horsefeathers on Matt Shaw when I suggested he would have a hard start to his MLB career recently, in which I also explained that better prospects than Shaw have struggled and that this is just what is to be expected.

2. I brought up Gage Workman because ST numbers simply shouldn't shift our understanding of players greatly. Do I think Gage Workman has looked pretty good in practice games? Sure thing! Do I think Gage Workman, at age 25, and with a defined floor of having a really good glove, makes sense as the 26th man? Sure thing! I thought that in January. (No, I don't think Smith = Workman, these are anecdotes).

So either people should understand that they're greatly shifting their evaluation of Cam Smith off of a handful of practice games or they have believed for a while that Cam Smith should have been the starting RF for the Houston Astros. I think both are silly for different reasons. 

3. It's pretty silly for Cubs fans to consistently feel the need to worry about these trades. We did it in 2016 when everyone was convinced Gleyber Torres (who the industry was higher on than Smith) was going to be a star. We did this in 2017 when the Cubs traded Jorge Soler (who the industry thought of higher than Smith). We did this later in 2017 when everyone was convinced Eloy Jimenez was going to be a star (who the industry thought was better than Smith). Each of those player have been fine, but have fallen far short of the crisis situation some made it out to potentially be. 

Does that mean Cam Smith has to follow that path? Absolutely not - Cam Smith is his own entity. He may very well buck a trend, he might hit the ground running and be great! But what most people are doing is playing the doom-and-gloom of worrying about the 95%^ outcome when the previous three anecdotes are being used to highlight the idea that prospects usually fall short of what the dream-outcomes are (yes, Dylan Cease was traded in that group and he was good! This isn't a comprehensive list nor am I purposefully forgetting him).

So, sure, Smith could be a monster who bombs 35+ home runs for the next 15 years consistently...but the most likely outcome is a guy who probably struggles heavily in his initial call up, then settles into being a fine MLB player but one we look back on in similar veins to Torres, Jimenez and Soler. Useful players but not some generationally bad loss.

The TL;DR:

I am not shitting on Cam Smith, I think he's being put in a position where initial success will be incredibly difficult. I don't believe ST data matters much at all, and while I think Smith can be a good MLB player, fans have a bad habit of ignoring the realistic outcome of a prospect who's been traded in lieu of fearing the worst-case.

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’ll also defend Smith here and say that its much less straight forward than “the industry thought these guys were outright better.” Smith came into existence last June or July as far as MLB’s listicle form of prospecting is concerned. Jimenez and Torres were traded 3+ years in providing precious monetized Data and prospect content the whole time 

I don't think it's this straight forward either - so we're in agreement. But it's a quick and easy way to remember that while I think Cam Smith is a pretty damn good prospect (there are hundreds and hundreds of prospects and to be consistently considered among the top-75 is a really  amazing feat) industry belief hasn't been that Smith is some generation-can't-miss type, either. It's just a quick data aggregation of lot of opinion for disucssion's sake. 

I will say this on the fact that that Jimenez and Torres had far more data behind them, I think that both works against Smith  (in that I am not sure what he is as much without as much data) but for him in that he hasn't dealt with prospect exhaustion and it becomes a lot easier to create pie-in-the-sky outcomes. It's a push-and-pull scenario. 

Generally speaking, I sincerely wish Cam Smith the best - I'm ultimately a fan of the Cubs and not someone who revels in how a player fails elsewhere. The best case scenario for all - the Cubs get Kyle Tucker, and he's really good and we extend him and Cam Smith being awesome - is something I'd be more than happy to see! I just think some people need to find some sort of a realistic footing on how we should view Cam Smith's current call up. 

[sneakypower]

18 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It might. But I'm also pretty sure that Smtih's assignment here is among the tougher ones we have seen. Hes barely accrued 20 PAs outside of high-A prior to ST, hes running a bad contact% in ST, and he's learning a new position. 

Maybe it all works out for him, but him being down in Triple-A by mid-May feels very realistic. 

Long term, hes a good prospect, but no one thinks he's generational. He can be a good player! And I doubt this first bit, even if it's rough, will be the decider in him. But I do think he's become one of the biggest risers I've seen in terms of evaluation from draft day (he went from mid-1st round pick to people thinking he can hit 40 home runs) and that's going to be a tough ceiling to hit.

Mauricio Dubon said Smith can hit 60 bombs!

i just hate that trade so, so much *given that* we're signalling loudly & clearly that we never really plan to swim in the deep end of FA, so we fans can safely expect Tucker to walk and that we'll not seriously pursue Vlad types with any type of realistic intent

Tucker will be a nice 5 win player for a year for a 83 win team and we smoothed over Houston's rebuild for the privilege of that