Spring Training Game Thread

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, jumbo said:

A whole lot of Cubs Twitter already has their outrage tweet written, just ready to hit send

I mean, it's not outrageous if he blows up this year and the Cubs let Tucker walk. He destroyed everything last year in the brief time he was in the organization. 

Before anyone wants to misconstrue or mischaracterize what I'm saying, I understand why they traded him for Tucker and the risk/reward equation. They had to find a run producer and they found about the best one they could. 

[chibears55]

14 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I mean, it's not outrageous if he blows up this year and the Cubs let Tucker walk. He destroyed everything last year in the brief time he was in the organization. 

Before anyone wants to misconstrue or mischaracterize what I'm saying, I understand why they traded him for Tucker and the risk/reward equation. They had to find a run producer and they found about the best one they could. 

Right, this season the trade is what it is but if the Cubs can't extend Tucker and this kid goes on to have a pretty good career, it'll be another trade Cubs fans will look back on and frown upon.

[chibears55]

Hoerner in the lineup today,  hopefully he'll be ready to go come next week.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Looks like the Astros are seriously considering Cam Smith breaking camp with the team. 
 

Will be interesting if he does….

 

Reeks of desperation. He's had a great ST camp, but he's got 20 PA's above A-Ball. The MLB is very different from South Bend, very different from the CWS and very different from ST. He might be a very good MLB player down the road, It's pretty likely he's going to look very, very, very much like a rookie if the Astros go that route and there's a possibility it harms his development. 

For his sake I hope it works out. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Jed didn't do enough to follow up after that trade. He should have landed more elite talent and not interesting-characteristic guys. Being a bridesmaid for Scott and Bregman was so Jed. 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Right, this season the trade is what it is but if the Cubs can't extend Tucker and this kid goes on to have a pretty good career, it'll be another trade Cubs fans will look back on and frown upon.

It certainly could. While this is more anecdotal than anything, recent history says Cubs fans are probably more worried about Smith being great than they should be. Gleyber Torres, Jorge Soler, and Eloy Jimenez were all supposed to be excellent offensive prospects and none of them went on to be all that great. There have been blips and flashes of excellence for all, but all have fallen short of those concerns in their entirety to date. Maybe Smith breaks that mold, but most prospects fall short of their 95% outcome, regardless.

[Bertz]

Nico's starting today!

Unsurprisingly, none of the other starters are.  Workman and Brujan are, and I'd presume they're the only ones who made the Japan trip who will play.

[CubinNY]

Padres radio team. listening to Gwynn Jr sounds so much like his father. 

[CubinNY]

Horton is pitching too

[CubinNY]

Horton out. According to the announces he was working in the mid 90s and topped out at 96. Had a good couple of innings, one walk I think

[Bertz]

Luke Little's alive as well.  Nice I had assumed he'd open the year on the IL but maybe not.

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It certainly could. While this is more anecdotal than anything, recent history says Cubs fans are probably more worried about Smith being great than they should be. Gleyber Torres, Jorge Soler, and Eloy Jimenez were all supposed to be excellent offensive prospects and none of them went on to be all that great. There have been blips and flashes of excellence for all, but all have fallen short of those concerns in their entirety to date. Maybe Smith breaks that mold, but most prospects fall short of their 95% outcome, regardless.

Which is why it's crazy to refuse to trade some of the prospects that we're hoarding for the quality ML players we need to be an elite team.

[gflore34]

4 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It certainly could. While this is more anecdotal than anything, recent history says Cubs fans are probably more worried about Smith being great than they should be. Gleyber Torres, Jorge Soler, and Eloy Jimenez were all supposed to be excellent offensive prospects and none of them went on to be all that great. There have been blips and flashes of excellence for all, but all have fallen short of those concerns in their entirety to date. Maybe Smith breaks that mold, but most prospects fall short of their 95% outcome, regardless.

I remember reading something here about him having a high GB rate?  Hitting the ball on ground too much does not bode well.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

I remember reading something here about him having a high GB rate?  Hitting the ball on ground too much does not bode well.

His LA dipped significantly his senior year. Yes; probably to help limit whiff. He didnt change his swing last year when he was drafted. It's certainly possible he has since then, with a new org, but hadn't with the Cubs. The Cubs general philosophy is that they don't tweak swings until the results suggest it isnt working (i.e. Matt Shaw). 

I cannot say this for certain, because I've never been invited to Spring Trianing, but I'd assume that teams aren't overly concerned with scouting reports against MiLB talent for those games. And because players are using it as practice, they have their own things they're doing, over learning a report for every Double-A hitter they might face. So I'd guess teams aren't really attacking Smith's potential flaws. 

Dude has had a great camp. Super credit. We'd be super excited if he was for us. But it's camp and remembering that is key. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

His LA dipped significantly his senior year. Yes; probably to help limit whiff. He didnt change his swing last year when he was drafted. It's certainly possible he has since then, with a new org, but hadn't with the Cubs. The Cubs general philosophy is that they don't tweak swings until the results suggest it isnt working (i.e. Matt Shaw). 

I cannot say this for certain, because I've never been invited to Spring Trianing, but I'd assume that teams aren't overly concerned with scouting reports against MiLB talent for those games. And because players are using it as practice, they have their own things they're doing, over learning a report for every Double-A hitter they might face. So I'd guess teams aren't really attacking Smith's potential flaws. 

Dude has had a great camp. Super credit. We'd be super excited if he was for us. But it's camp and remembering that is key. 

You know who else has a great spring? Workman. I don’t see him as a starting option. Does anyhow e expect him to be a star? In the end, Smith might be good. He might have a good career. But he also can very possibly be a bust. 

[CubinNY]

10 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

You know who else has a great spring? Workman. I don’t see him as a starting option. Does anyhow e expect him to be a star? In the end, Smith might be good. He might have a good career. But he also can very possibly be a bust. 

lol. You shouldn’t compare those two players. 
 

I also think it would be a mistake to promote Smith to MLB at this time. But he’s a legitimate star prospect 

Edited March 22, 2025 by CubinNY

[Bertz]

1. You shouldn't let spring training change your mind about a player

2. If you're going to ignore the above, probably worth acknowledging Cam's contact numbers this spring are awful

Cam Smith's a good player, but I see very little to suggest he's MLB ready.  I also think if he hadn't been traded he would (correctly) be viewed in the same tier as Caissie and crew.

[Bertz]

Taillon and Boyd are pitching today and tomorrow.  I'm guessing that means the rotation to open in AZ will be Taillon-Boyd-Shota-Steele.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

lol. You shouldn’t compare those two players. 
 

I also think it would be a mistake to promote Smith to MLB at this time. But he’s a legitimate star prospect 

I agree that Smith is a legitimate prospect. Of course he is. Or the Cubs couldn’t get Tucker for him. But most people, not you, are overreacting to a good spring. A lot of guys have good springs and end up not carrying to the regular season or even have any kind of major league career. As Bertz said, nothing Smjth did this spring should suddenly have him any higher than the tier Cassie is in. As you correctly stated, what he did this spring should not give him a spot on the ML roster just yet.
He is ranked somewhere around 70th in baseball by most publications. Similar to Cassie, Ballasteros, Alcantara. Maybe he moves up and becomes that star everyone is so afraid he will become. But maybe he ends up taking a different trajectory, much like many prospects who never do make it to the majors. The minor leagues are filled with guys who at one time were top 20 prospects in the game. People are getting, seriously, way ahead of themselves with Smith. 

[gflore34]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree that Smith is a legitimate prospect. Of course he is. Or the Cubs couldn’t get Tucker for him. But most people, not you, are overreacting to a good spring. A lot of guys have good springs and end up not carrying to the regular season or even have any kind of major league career. As Bertz said, nothing Smjth did this spring should suddenly have him any higher than the tier Cassie is in. As you correctly stated, what he did this spring should not give him a spot on the ML roster just yet.
He is ranked somewhere around 70th in baseball by most publications. Similar to Cassie, Ballasteros, Alcantara. Maybe he moves up and becomes that star everyone is so afraid he will become. But maybe he ends up taking a different trajectory, much like many prospects who never do make it to the majors. The minor leagues are filled with guys who at one time were top 20 prospects in the game. People are getting, seriously, way ahead of themselves with Smith. 

I believe Smith's spring numbers and Tucker' lack of spring numbers is what may have people overreacting.  Overreacting and conveniently ignoring Tucker is a proven MLB'er and Smith, well, is not.

Edited March 22, 2025 by gflore34

[Bertz]

Miller going on the IL was the last puzzle piece.  Feels like it makes Brown being named the 5th starter just a formality.

Whoever loses the battle between Brujan/Workman gets cut, that opens up the 40 man spot for Keller, and that is that between now and Thursday, barring additional injury.

[Stratos]

9 hours ago, Bertz said:

1. You shouldn't let spring training change your mind about a player

2. If you're going to ignore the above, probably worth acknowledging Cam's contact numbers this spring are awful

Cam Smith's a good player, but I see very little to suggest he's MLB ready.  I also think if he hadn't been traded he would (correctly) be viewed in the same tier as Caissie and crew.

What contact #'s are you referring to?

It's difficult to assess Smith with such small sample sizes.  I agree he's not likely to be MLB-ready yet.

It's tough trading a hitter with Smith's hit/power tool combo which are both rated as plus, it's pretty rare as prospects go and better than that of Caissie, Alcantara, Ballesteros.  But I guess we don't know how the Cubs assessed Smith, they have more data than we do.  The Astros aren't stupid and they sure liked him.

The Cubs can draft another Smith or Matt Shaw this year and most years so whatever, it's nice to have Tucker.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

Miller going on the IL was the last puzzle piece.  Feels like it makes Brown being named the 5th starter just a formality.

Whoever loses the battle between Brujan/Workman gets cut, that opens up the 40 man spot for Keller, and that is that between now and Thursday, barring additional injury.

Brown's command was really rough in Tokyo, I hope he does better this week.  Rooting for him, he's a breakout candidate.  Cubs already used Brown almost as a SP in Tokyo so it probably doesn't matter whether Rea or him start, they'll both get lots of innings especially in April when lots of SP aren't going much past 5 IP.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

What contact #'s are you referring to?

It's difficult to assess Smith with such small sample sizes.  I agree he's not likely to be MLB-ready yet.

It's tough trading a hitter with Smith's hit/power tool combo which are both rated as plus, it's pretty rare as prospects go and better than that of Caissie, Alcantara, Ballesteros.  But I guess we don't know how the Cubs assessed Smith, they have more data than we do.  The Astros aren't stupid and they sure liked him.

The Cubs can draft another Smith or Matt Shaw this year and most years so whatever, it's nice to have Tucker.

I think its important to once again mention that Smith has *potential* plus power and contact but he's never shown both simultaneously. During his time at FSU, when he's hit for contact, he's flattened his bat path out and hit the ball on the ground far more. When he hit for home runs, his launch angle was much better but he struck out much more, and at levels that make you a little uneasy, probably.

He did crush Low-A, which is good and all...but he was playing in the CWS. He probably should have. His samples are too small in both SB and Tenn to come away with a ton, especially since it does not seem the Cubs, themselves improved his LA, as reports are they didn't touch his swing in that limited time.

If he can bridge the gap between the two versions, he can be a pretty damn good hitter. But it remains theoretical that he has both plus power and plus contact, in that he's only ever shown one at a time.

 

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

What contact #'s are you referring to?

It's difficult to assess Smith with such small sample sizes.  I agree he's not likely to be MLB-ready yet.

It's tough trading a hitter with Smith's hit/power tool combo which are both rated as plus, it's pretty rare as prospects go and better than that of Caissie, Alcantara, Ballesteros.  But I guess we don't know how the Cubs assessed Smith, they have more data than we do.  The Astros aren't stupid and they sure liked him.

The Cubs can draft another Smith or Matt Shaw this year and most years so whatever, it's nice to have Tucker.

64.4% coming into today.  If he were an MLBer last year that would have placed him between Zach Gelof and Will Benson.  Ranked 282nd of 286 hitters with 300+ PAs.

And I don't think Smith's anything is all that rare or special.  He looks like a good hitter that will end up with a wRC+ in the 120 neighborhood and play a passable 3B.  It's a comparable overall package to guys like Caissie, which is why he ranked comparably on offseason prospect lists.