Cubs sign Thielbar

[Derwood]

Is Scherzer's body able to hold it together for an age 40 season?

 

Quote

Scherzer opened the ’24 season on the injured list as he finished rehab from last December’s back surgery. Nerve irritation in his throwing hand delayed his return until late June. Scherzer made eight starts before going back on the shelf with shoulder fatigue. That kept him out into September. His season concluded after one additional start because of a strained left hamstring.

A pitcher battling multiple injuries, including back surgery, at age 40 is obviously going to raise concerns. Scherzer is only one season removed from starting 30 games and topping 160 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He’d surpassed 170 innings in every full schedule between 2009-21. Until last year, he’d been incredibly durable.

 

Back, hand, shoulder, hamstring all in one season

Edited January 2, 2025 by Derwood

[thawv]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

They can easily spend 40m even if they don't sign a big name player.  1 SP for 15-20m AAV, 1 closer-type reliever, and one solid corner INF bench bat has them there.  They go low on the SP around 15m and they could add maybe a 2nd reliever and/or 2nd bench bat.

So a #4 pitcher.  I don't think they "need" a closer, but it wouldn't hurt at all.  I think they are a waste of money.  And since money is the #1 concern of this team, I wouldn't spend it, unless they weren't going to spend it at all.  We have all 4 new bench players right now.  I feel the same way about spending too much money on the bench.  Again, spend it if the other option is keeping it in their pocket.  But I do understand HOW they can spend it.  I was also referring to spending it on a big FH.  Yes, they can spread it out though.  But I don't feel like that's going to happen. 

[muntjack]

Sure am glad they added Tucker,  because the dogged pursuit of #4 starters, bench guys and middle relief hasn't been very inspiring for a team that needs concentrated WAR.  Reminds me of Hendry in the early 2000s.  

Plenty of time,  but I get nervous.   

[Bertz]

It's absolutely astonishing to me that people watched last year's team and don't see the value in having depth that isn't horsefeathers.  Like you couldn't find a better case study and yet the majority of the fanbase just completely whiffs on the lesson.

[CubinNY]

I don't think the Cubs are going to go after Max. Jed likes value and Max doesn't offer that. I could see him doing a Clemens and signing with some team around July. 

[chibears55]

As of now here is what Hoyer has basically done this off season. 

Tucker for Bellinger 

Shaw for Paredes

Boyd for Hendricks 

Kelly,  Workman,  Brujan, Canario

For

Bethencourt,  Mastrobuoni, Wisdom, Tauchman 

Zastryzny, Morgan,  Thielbar 

For

Neris, Smyly,  Leiter 

 

Outside of hopefully adding another SP, whether it Sasaki or another and then they can move Assad to the bullpen, I think their roster is set.

They may have 40+ mil left to spend but the bulk of that wont be spent this offseason on adding new players to the roster that also currently has the 40 man filled and still have to remove one to add Shaw and possibly another to add a new SP.

[CubinNY]

23 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

As of now here is what Hoyer has basically done this off season. 

Tucker for Bellinger 

Shaw for Paredes

Boyd for Hendricks 

Kelly,  Workman,  Brujan, Canario

For

Bethencourt,  Mastrobuoni, Wisdom, Tauchman 

Zastryzny, Morgan,  Thielbar 

For

Neris, Smyly,  Leiter 

 

Outside of hopefully adding another SP, whether it Sasaki or another and then they can move Assad to the bullpen, I think their roster is set.

They may have 40+ mil left to spend but the bulk of that wont be spent this offseason on adding new players to the roster that also currently has the 40 man filled and still have to remove one to add Shaw and possibly another to add a new SP.

Honestly, I'd like to see them save it and make a strong play for a Tucker extension. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

Honestly, I'd like to see them save it and make a strong play for a Tucker extension. 

If saving it was the difference in extending Tucker now versus signing him at the end of this year, I would agree with you that they should save most of it to extend Tucker now. Or even if they did an extension for PCA and that cost them $10M on this budget, fine, spend less. But I don’t think that is the case. I do think they won’t sign anyone to high dollars at multiple years so that next year they can sign Tucker and not go over. That is why someone like Scherzer interests me a little. He would be one year. 

[muntjack]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

It's absolutely astonishing to me that people watched last year's team and don't see the value in having depth that isn't horsefeathers.  Like you couldn't find a better case study and yet the majority of the fanbase just completely whiffs on the lesson.

Depth is very important.  We had 20 pitchers contribute positive WAR last season,  more than many playoff teams, including the Yankees and Brewers.  On the offensive side, Tauchman, Bethancourt, Cooper, Bote, etc  were all positive contributors.  They certainly gave too many PAs to Mastrobuoni and Madrigal, and those PAs going to better players will help, no argument there. 

 

Like many others, I would just like to see an  addition to the top of the rotation (which also pushes quality arms down into depth roles).  

[Bertz]

It's kind of crazy how much the pitch models like Thielbar.

PitchingBot is one of the ones on Fangraphs, and they actually have an ERA estimator.  i.e. If a guy has a Stuff grade of X and a Command grade of Y they tend to have an ERA of Z.  This model says Thielbar "earned" a 3.12 ERA over the last three years, which is 10th among lefty relievers behind Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman.  Even last season when Thielbar got blown up his projected ERA was 3.28, ironically tied with AJ Minter and right in the vicinity of guys like Bryan Hudson and Aaron Bummer.

Stuff+ arguably likes him more.  He's 11th in Stuff and 5th in overall Pitching the last three years among lefty relievers.  Ironically again tied with AJ Minter on the latter.  Again this model thinks he was just fine in 2024, he ranked 11th in Stuff and 10th in overall Pitching.

I don't want to get too far out over my skis on this stuff, but he's definitely not the finesse lefty you expect when you see a 38 year old with a 93 MPH fastball.  I think there's a floor of a quality LOOGY with pretty real potential for quality setup work.

[Rcal10]

6 hours ago, chibears55 said:

As of now here is what Hoyer has basically done this off season. 

Tucker for Bellinger 

Shaw for Paredes

Boyd for Hendricks 

Kelly,  Workman,  Brujan, Canario

For

Bethencourt,  Mastrobuoni, Wisdom, Tauchman 

Zastryzny, Morgan,  Thielbar 

For

Neris, Smyly,  Leiter 

 

Outside of hopefully adding another SP, whether it Sasaki or another and then they can move Assad to the bullpen, I think their roster is set.

They may have 40+ mil left to spend but the bulk of that wont be spent this offseason on adding new players to the roster that also currently has the 40 man filled and still have to remove one to add Shaw and possibly another to add a new SP.

So to be clear, you are saying no pen and and no bench bat will be added. Just, maybe a pitcher. Correct? You may be right, but I sure hope you are not.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

So to be clear, you are saying no pen and and no bench bat will be added. Just, maybe a pitcher. Correct? You may be right, but I sure hope you are not.

If Hoerner goes onto the IL for an extended period of time, then there's a chance they add another bench guy.

Otherwise

Kelly the backup catcher...

Workman a rule 5 selection...

Brujan was just traded for...

Canario, Caissie, Alcantara are the OF depth, i guess they can add a veteran OFer and leave these guys in Iowa til needed.

 Zastryzny, Thielbar, and Morgan were just added to the pen this offseason and Pearson and Miller were traded for during season.  

Hodge, Merryweather,  and Thompson as part of the pen 

They added 4 other guys for depth in Iowa to go along with the ones already there,  so I'd be surprise if they go and bring in another reliever outside of adding more depth in AAA or AA.

If they do get another SP, then Asssad will take a bullpen spot and move one off to be depth in Iowa.

I hope I'm wrong too because I always want to see roster upgrades, but unless Hoyer has a multi player trade up his sleeve with current rostered players, I don't see the opening to add more players to the current active roster.

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

If Hoerner goes onto the IL for an extended period of time, then there's a chance they add another bench guy.

Otherwise

Kelly the backup catcher...

Workman a rule 5 selection...

Brujan was just traded for...

Canario, Caissie, Alcantara are the OF depth, i guess they can add a veteran OFer and leave these guys in Iowa til needed.

 Zastryzny, Thielbar, and Morgan were just added to the pen this offseason and Pearson and Miller were traded for during season.  

Hodge, Merryweather,  and Thompson as part of the pen 

They added 4 other guys for depth in Iowa to go along with the ones already there,  so I'd be surprise if they go and bring in another reliever outside of adding more depth in AAA or AA.

If they do get another SP, then Asssad will take a bullpen spot and move one off to be depth in Iowa.

I hope I'm wrong too because I always want to see roster upgrades, but unless Hoyer has a multi player trade up his sleeve with current rostered players, I don't see the opening to add more players to the current active roster.

Neither Brujan or Workman are obstacles. Both are incredibly replaceable and DFA-worthy (or in Workman's case, returnable). The Cubs dont and wouldn't need a multi-player trade to upgrade or decide to move on from either. 

Sign Moncada, Solano, Canha? There goes one of them. Easily.

[Post Count Padder]

12 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

If Hoerner goes onto the IL for an extended period of time, then there's a chance they add another bench guy.

Otherwise

Kelly the backup catcher...

Workman a rule 5 selection...

Brujan was just traded for...

Canario, Caissie, Alcantara are the OF depth, i guess they can add a veteran OFer and leave these guys in Iowa til needed.

 Zastryzny, Thielbar, and Morgan were just added to the pen this offseason and Pearson and Miller were traded for during season.  

Hodge, Merryweather,  and Thompson as part of the pen 

They added 4 other guys for depth in Iowa to go along with the ones already there,  so I'd be surprise if they go and bring in another reliever outside of adding more depth in AAA or AA.

If they do get another SP, then Asssad will take a bullpen spot and move one off to be depth in Iowa.

I hope I'm wrong too because I always want to see roster upgrades, but unless Hoyer has a multi player trade up his sleeve with current rostered players, I don't see the opening to add more players to the current active roster.

I like Workman and Brujan but they are not set in stone on the roster. If you can add a better player, you do it.

I have a soft spot for Zastryzny and Thompson but they are not guaranteed spots. Same goes for Merryweather. I am "fine" with things at the moment but I don't think they're done adding just bc a few minor pieces were recently thrown into the mix.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Post Count Padder said:

I like Workman and Brujan but they are not set in stone on the roster. If you can add a better player, you do it.

I have a soft spot for Zastryzny and Thompson but they are not guaranteed spots. Same goes for Merryweather. I am "fine" with things at the moment but I don't think they're done adding just bc a few minor pieces were recently thrown into the mix.

I agree. None of the names you mentioned are guys that cannot be replaced by a better player. They are not guys you would use as an excuse not to get better. I would be shocked if Thompson and Zastryzny made the team. To suggest they won’t add a pen arm because of those guys would be the FO taking the fanbase as idiots. To suggest they won’t add a bench bat because of Workman or Brujan is almost as insulting. 

[Bertz]

Bullpen right now is likely:

Closer - TBD external acquisition

Setup - Hodge, Pearson

Middle Relief - Morgan, Merryweather

Matchup Guys - Miller, Thielbar

Long Relief - One of Assad/Wicks/Poteet

Keegan Thompson and Rob Zastryzny are likely around in case someone gets hurt in ST.  Or maybe with all the off days in April the team foregoes an early season long reliever and one makes the OD roster that way?  Thompson is sort of in between a regular short reliever and a long guy as is

Then you have Palencia, Roberts, Little, Neely, and Hollowell as your Iowa shuttle guys

I wish I felt comfortable calling one of Thielbar/Merrweather/Morgan a setup guy from Day 1, but otherwise assuming that closer is on the way it's a pretty solid and very deep group.

[Stratos]

38 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Bullpen right now is likely:

Closer - TBD external acquisition

Setup - Hodge, Pearson

Middle Relief - Morgan, Merryweather

Matchup Guys - Miller, Thielbar

Long Relief - One of Assad/Wicks/Poteet

Keegan Thompson and Rob Zastryzny are likely around in case someone gets hurt in ST.  Or maybe with all the off days in April the team foregoes an early season long reliever and one makes the OD roster that way?  Thompson is sort of in between a regular short reliever and a long guy as is

Then you have Palencia, Roberts, Little, Neely, and Hollowell as your Iowa shuttle guys

I wish I felt comfortable calling one of Thielbar/Merrweather/Morgan a setup guy from Day 1, but otherwise assuming that closer is on the way it's a pretty solid and very deep group.

They also have Ben Brown in the mix.   I assume he's on the MLB roster.  If anyone is in Iowa staying stretched out I think it would likely be Wicks over Brown.

After Hodge and possibly Merryweather the pen looks very average.  Ideally I swap out a guy like Miller and find a better arm at setup.  Pearson's FB is just too straight to be a late-inning setup guy with a tight lead for me, it's HR city.

IMO the setup guys right now are in pencil, you can't count on Hodge and Merryweather either.  Hodge has the stuff but the control in the minors has been bad.

I guess they're just trying to acquire decent arms and figure things out as they go and hoping a couple pop off and establish a late-inning role, even though this hasn't been a good strategy the last 2 years, at least in he first half.  Even Brown isn't reliable with the neck.  I guess this is just the reality these days.

[Rcal10]

21 hours ago, Stratos said:

They also have Ben Brown in the mix.   I assume he's on the MLB roster.  If anyone is in Iowa staying stretched out I think it would likely be Wicks over Brown.

After Hodge and possibly Merryweather the pen looks very average.  Ideally I swap out a guy like Miller and find a better arm at setup.  Pearson's FB is just too straight to be a late-inning setup guy with a tight lead for me, it's HR city.

IMO the setup guys right now are in pencil, you can't count on Hodge and Merryweather either.  Hodge has the stuff but the control in the minors has been bad.

I guess they're just trying to acquire decent arms and figure things out as they go and hoping a couple pop off and establish a late-inning role, even though this hasn't been a good strategy the last 2 years, at least in he first half.  Even Brown isn't reliable with the neck.  I guess this is just the reality these days.

I feel like you are wanting a pen that doesn’t exist. I am willing to bet most fan base complain about their pen. And even if their team puts together this “dominate” pen, when it struggled the fan base would suggest it isn’t very good. I think a lot of teams fan base hates their pen. It is the easiest thing to rag on. Even a good pen will blow some games. 

[Stratos]

On 1/3/2025 at 4:18 PM, Rcal10 said:

I feel like you are wanting a pen that doesn’t exist. I am willing to bet most fan base complain about their pen. And even if their team puts together this “dominate” pen, when it struggled the fan base would suggest it isn’t very good. I think a lot of teams fan base hates their pen. It is the easiest thing to rag on. Even a good pen will blow some games. 

Is having a top 10 pen for a team with lots of resources that wants to win the division and a World Series unrealistic?  Our bullpen was 17th in FIP and xFIP last year.  It was 12th in ERA but I wager having 5 gold glove-caliber defenders and the wind blowing in made that a mirage.  Our starters were 18th in xFIP, likely helped by the same factors.

Is this how they plan to build a 95 win team?  Is it even good enough for 90 wins?  This entire team is mid.  Mid offense, mid rotation, mid bullpen, mid FO, horsefeathers ownership.