Bears Week 16 vs Lions, Noon Sunday on FOX

[gflore34]

13 hours ago, raw said:

I mean, I get it with the Caleb stuff. But this is quite literally going to be a top 5 QB season in Chicago Bears history. I know, low bar and all, but he's also had to deal with the first ever OC getting fired in-season and the first ever OC getting fired in-season. Maybe part of that is on him, but there's nothing statistically to suggest that those are his doing. 

If you're disappointed on a "relative basis", I have no idea what relation you are making. He's had a better rookie season than former #1 picks: Jared Goff, Bryce Young, Matthew Stafford, David Carr, Jameis Winston, and basically the same statistical rookie seasons as Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow. If it's relative to other rookies, he's having the same statistical season as Bo Nix who broadcasters rave about when I watch the Broncos. If it's relative to more experienced QBs, that's more of a you problem for having too high expectations than a Caleb problem.

Caleb is also statistically on par with everyone's darling CJ Stroud.  Stroud, at least from a statistical stand point, has regressed.  If one considers a QB' second season before a full evaluation of him, what does this say about Stroud?  I'm fairly confident what's playing out with Stroud is what we'll see of Daniels and Nix next season, while Caleb and, probably Maye, with improved coaching, ascend.

[We Got The Whole 9]

It's crazy how Caleb's last INT was probably his worst throw of the year that should have been a 70 yard TD instead, and he also had 2 pickless games before that. He should already be challenging the record if not for that horrible throw. 

[Wilson A2000]

Uhhhhhh

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

4 hours ago, BigbadB said:

This is turning out to be a pretty incredible QB draft. 

I think Caleb has made plenty of rookie mistakes, but I have to give him a pass because pretty much everything else about this offense has been so bad. The good far outweighs the bad. He needs stability in his ears. That requires an offensive minded coach and OC. He also needs way better protection.

This team absolutely must do some serious house cleaning on the OLIne. I have no idea how bad Braxton's injury is, but I think he's pretty much destined for a G position going forward. The Bears must get a lock down LT in the draft or in FA. Jenkins, Bates, Borom and several of the other backups cannot be here next year. This group is so bad at fundamentals, every series becomes doomed due to their incompetence. Shelton can come back on a team friendly placeholder gig, where he should just be a backup C when they draft their new starter. I have no idea whether Amegadjie has a place on this team going forward, either. You can't dedicate many spots on the roster for guys who aren't healthy on game day. 

Many of the defenders would be better with some sort of pass rush. Any defense can get torched when the QB has tons of time to throw.

Draft and LT and move Jones to G is my pet scenario and I feel like it almost never gets talked about.  He's big enough to be a guard and he would be great pulling on run plays 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

3 hours ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Robert Schmitz said on Twitter that he thinks Braxton wouldn't be any good at G because he has a tendency to get overpowered. So there's really only 1.5 spots on the line that are filled if you're set on replacing him and both guards (which i agree with). 

A pass rushing Edge is by far the biggest defensive need. If Billings can come.back and play at a similar level then the front should be at least league average if adding someone who can get pressure on the QB, and that makes the back end better by default. 

I feel like the best path at this point is LT in the 1st, followed an iOL and an Edge in the 2nd (all after signing 1-2 iOL and an Edge in FA). Would like a starting CB in FA too. Stephenson can't go into next season as an unquestioned starter. 

I totally see the argument about the lack of anchor being a problem at guard, but I still think it's worth it.

 

He won't be elite but there's a difference between anchoring on the interior and getting bullrushed after backpedalling to set the edge 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

2 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

I thought no interceptions was bad 

He's gotten better the last few weeks about throwing into tougher windows. That 4th and 1 to Odunze was beautiful.

Taking things away from Aaron Rodgers is always good 

[BigSlick]

The only bad thing about Caleb not throwing INTs was it was clearly happening because he was playing scared, overthrowing people intentionally, not taking risks into coverage, and taking sacks instead of making something happen. That clearly wasn't happening as much yesterday and he didn't throw a pick (good!). 

If my expectations for Caleb's rookie season were a bell curve, he clearly isn't in the top-top part of the curve (2 standard deviations from mean), and he's not in the chunky bit above the mean either. But he's squarely in the realm of that 68% part of the graph thats within one standard deviation of a Median 1st Overall Pick. On the lower side? Yea, probably. He's had way too many games start incredibly slowly, and he's had too long of stretches being bad. But I can't look at what he's done on the season: 

314/505, 3,271 yards, 62.2% completion percentage, 19 Tds, 5 Ints (FIVE!), 6.5 Y/A

and say well...this is concerning. It's not. And all that amidst really (unforgivable) chaotic and poor coaching.  

[We Got The Whole 9]

Braxton now has a fractured fibula complicating his roster status.

[UMFan83]

Man I hate QBR as a stat.  Hard to not like what Caleb did yesterday but because his team was down 20-0 quickly due to turnovers and terrible defense (albeit 1 TO was due to a bad handoff), his QBR for the game was just 39.2 which is well below average.

[gflore34]

43 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

The only bad thing about Caleb not throwing INTs was it was clearly happening because he was playing scared, overthrowing people intentionally, not taking risks into coverage, and taking sacks instead of making something happen. That clearly wasn't happening as much yesterday and he didn't throw a pick (good!). 

If my expectations for Caleb's rookie season were a bell curve, he clearly isn't in the top-top part of the curve (2 standard deviations from mean), and he's not in the chunky bit above the mean either. But he's squarely in the realm of that 68% part of the graph thats within one standard deviation of a Median 1st Overall Pick. On the lower side? Yea, probably. He's had way too many games start incredibly slowly, and he's had too long of stretches being bad. But I can't look at what he's done on the season: 

314/505, 3,271 yards, 62.2% completion percentage, 19 Tds, 5 Ints (FIVE!), 6.5 Y/A

and say well...this is concerning. It's not. And all that amidst really (unforgivable) chaotic and poor coaching.  

Flip Caleb with Daniels or Nix and he's easily out performing both of them with their current statistics.  Put Nix or Daniels in Caleb' shoes and I doubt they're even starting any more,  Bagent is playing.

[gflore34]

6 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Man I hate QBR as a stat.  Hard to not like what Caleb did yesterday but because his team was down 20-0 quickly due to turnovers and terrible defense (albeit 1 TO was due to a bad handoff), his QBR for the game was just 39.2 which is well below average.

I really don't get how a guy like Cousins, leading the NFL in interceptions has a QBR of 52 whereas, Caleb' at 47.7.  Guess all the sacks are worse than a horsefeathers-ton of turnovers?

[Soul]

8 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I really don't get how a guy like Cousins, leading the NFL in interceptions has a QBR of 52 whereas, Caleb' at 47.7.  Guess all the sacks are worse than a horsefeathers-ton of turnovers?

I don't get that either.  INTs should crush a QB's whatever ranking.  Cousins is about equal in TDs/INTs. Without looking at anything else, that should tank him on the list of starting QBs.  Having 4 times the TDs to INTs, on the other hand, should shoot a QB up the list.  Obviously I'm putting huge weight on the scale in favor of that stat but honestly who is leading a great passing offense without a wide spread TD/INT? The closest are probably Love or Mahomes but both of those guys are still double the TDs.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

28 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Man I hate QBR as a stat.  Hard to not like what Caleb did yesterday but because his team was down 20-0 quickly due to turnovers and terrible defense (albeit 1 TO was due to a bad handoff), his QBR for the game was just 39.2 which is well below average.

This is more of a general rant about the state of sports analysis:  lots of stats are just bad.

There is an absolute firehouse of ****** data analysis out there feeding the hot take industry and people don't question it because anything with a decimal point looks scientific.  Bonus points if you can plot it on a scatter graph.

I don't know anything about the NBA, but it's awful in the NHL and NFL.

Pff grades, BWR, QBR, epa applied to individual players, all bad analysis with bad methodologies. They are literally worse than not using stats at all. Unless I'm shitting on Justin fields with them 

 

 

[raw]

3 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

It's crazy how Caleb's last INT was probably his worst throw of the year that should have been a 70 yard TD instead, and he also had 2 pickless games before that. He should already be challenging the record if not for that horrible throw. 

He hasn't thrown an INT in the United States since Week 3. LMAO

[raw]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Braxton now has a fractured fibula complicating his roster status.

This was the best case scenario watching the play. Twitter doctors (legit ones) were thinking torn ligaments in the knee. If nothing is torn (doesn't sound like it is), this is a 4 month recovery and he's easily back in time for training camp.

[BigSlick]

QBR is a weird stat that we aren’t privy to know the details of how it’s calculated which always leads me to be suspicious.

Caleb being ~47.9 or whatever on the season however feels about right: if 50 is a league average season by an NFL QB, he is probably exactly that when you factor in his whole season. Which, for a rookie QB, is totally fine. 

[minnesotacubsfan]

27 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

QBR is a weird stat that we aren’t privy to know the details of how it’s calculated which always leads me to be suspicious.

Caleb being ~47.9 or whatever on the season however feels about right: if 50 is a league average season by an NFL QB, he is probably exactly that when you factor in his whole season. Which, for a BEARS QB, is totally fine. 

fify

[UMFan83]

54 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

QBR is a weird stat that we aren’t privy to know the details of how it’s calculated which always leads me to be suspicious.

Caleb being ~47.9 or whatever on the season however feels about right: if 50 is a league average season by an NFL QB, he is probably exactly that when you factor in his whole season. Which, for a rookie QB, is totally fine. 

Is 50 supposed to be league average?  This year 25 out of 33 qualified QBs are over 50. Caleb is 26th

[BigSlick]

44 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Is 50 supposed to be league average?  This year 25 out of 33 qualified QBs are over 50. Caleb is 26th

It is my understanding that’s the case, at least for ESPN’s QBR

[UMFan83]

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Seahawks' defensive line isn't entirely on the IR like Detroit, so I assume we'll be back to offensive sad times on Thursday.  So let's do some more Caleb Willliams stat gawking before we get there.

Williams is currently 16th in the NFL in passing yards, 13th in TDs, 3rd in lowest INT%.   

He needs 584 yards in the final two games to match Erik Kramer's franchise record of 3838.

He is currently on pace for the 12th most passing yards by a rookie in NFL history (including Daniels being slightly ahead of him, Williams is just 15 yards behind him for the rookie lead).

Despite all the moaning about his accuracy, he has the 23rd highest completion percentage by a rookie starter in NFL history.

His sack rate of 10.62%, while way too high, is better than any of Justin FIelds' three seasons as a Bear.

 

Edited December 24, 2024 by Hairyducked Idiot

[gflore34]

9 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

The Seahawks' defensive line isn't entirely on the IR like Detroit, so I assume we'll be back to offensive sad times on Thursday.  So let's do some more Caleb Willliams stat gawking before we get there.

Williams is currently 16th in the NFL in passing yards, 13th in TDs, 3rd in lowest INT%.   

He needs 584 yards in the final two games to match Erik Kramer's franchise record of 3838.

He is currently on pace for the 12th most passing yards by a rookie in NFL history (including Daniels being slightly ahead of him, Williams is just 15 yards behind him for the rookie lead).

Despite all the moaning about his accuracy, he has the 23rd highest completion percentage by a rookie starter in NFL history.

His sack rate of 10.62%, while way too high, is better than any of Justin FIelds' three seasons as a Bear.

 

Doing all this amidst chaos and other garbage, I'd really like to see what Daniels or Nix would have accomplished in such an environment.  The overt negativity continually thrown Caleb' way is the polar opposite of the attitude towards Nix and Daniels.  Yet, the numbers don't suggest they're markedly better than Caleb.  I sooooo want the Bears to get their horsefeathers together, flip the script.  I firmly believe Daniels will regress next season while Caleb explodes.

Regarding the negativity, the Chicago media is really getting tiresome, baiting DJ Moore and others.  It's a lost season, to keep piling on and kicking the Bears while their down is completely pointless.  Yes the Bears are terrible right now, nearly everything has gone wrong, what more is there to say?

Edited December 24, 2024 by gflore34