Update: Passan confirms trade done. Tucker to Cubs for Paredes, Cam Smith, Wesneski

[SOFNR]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I posted something tangential to this in a comment under one of Trueblood's articles but now that this is real I think it's worth thinking about more. If you want to read tea leaves on how confident the team is about extending Tucker, I think there's is a direct correlation between how much multi-year money the team adds from here and how likely it is that Tucker walks.

Tucker and some unlikely Shota option decisions aside, there is no money set to come off the books after this year besides Tucker.  So if the team has real expectations of extending Tucker, they'll primarily stick to 1 year deals aside from Kelly (you always need a veteran backup at C).  Reason being you want to to have some money to spend in addition to a Tucker deal.  So like if Castillo or Flaherty is our next SP that's a bearish sign for an extension, while a guy in his walk year I take as a positive.

That makes some sense, but I sure hope if they're willing to give Tucker a big extension they're also willing to jump into the tax occasionally.  Especially since they should be entering a more competitive cycle. 

[SOFNR]

Just now, Dfan25 said:

This could be Bob been Bob but Nightendale says they are a seeking a 3B

That's so obvious even Bob was able to figure it out.

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I posted something tangential to this in a comment under one of Trueblood's articles but now that this is real I think it's worth thinking about more. If you want to read tea leaves on how confident the team is about extending Tucker, I think there's is a direct correlation between how much multi-year money the team adds from here and how likely it is that Tucker walks.

Tucker and some unlikely Shota option decisions aside, there is no money set to come off the books after this year besides Tucker.  So if the team has real expectations of extending Tucker, they'll primarily stick to 1 year deals aside from Kelly (you always need a veteran backup at C).  Reason being you want to to have some money to spend in addition to a Tucker deal.  So like if Castillo or Flaherty is our next SP that's a bearish sign for an extension, while a guy in his walk year I take as a positive.

The only push back I'd have is that the Cubs have almost all of the money coming off in 2026. I doubt the Cubs blow through the LT, but they could probably clear Taillon and Hoerner next offseason if Horton/Birdsell/Wicks proves themselves stable and they want to run with Triantos, for example. I think today makes it less like that Hoerner is traded even next offseason, but I think they could add one more $20m contract and still find the way to extend Tucker, 

They could go over a bit next year and probably easily drop back down under in 2026.

[ToolDRT]

11 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

This could be Bob been Bob but Nightendale says they are a seeking a 3B

He really went out on a limb there huh

[ToolDRT]

 

[Bertz]

22 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The only push back I'd have is that the Cubs have almost all of the money coming off in 2026. I doubt the Cubs blow through the LT, but they could probably clear Taillon and Hoerner next offseason if Horton/Birdsell/Wicks proves themselves stable and they want to run with Triantos, for example. I think today makes it less like that Hoerner is traded even next offseason, but I think they could add one more $20m contract and still find the way to extend Tucker, 

They could go over a bit next year and probably easily drop back down under in 2026.

Taking Castillo as an example, having him at $25M and Tucker at let's call it $40M, the team next year is already at ~$230M.

Tom would have to significantly change his spending habits or Jed would be backed into a corner *having* to trade a salary to do anything beyond minor roster tinkering.  Not impossible, Theo did it for Darvish, but I feel pretty comfortable saying this is one of those places where Jed and Theo have different sensibilities.

Edit: Actually I think that $230 might be if Shota leaves, so more like $245M as a starting point.

Edited December 14, 2024 by Bertz

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Taking Castillo as an example, having him at $25M and Tucker at let's call it $40M, the team next year is already at ~$230M.

Tom would have to significantly change his spending habits or Jed would be backed into a corner *having* to trade a salary to do anything beyond minor roster tinkering.  Not impossible, Theo did it for Darvish, but I feel pretty comfortable saying this is one of those places where Jed and Theo have different sensibilities.

That's true. With that said, while the Cubs didn't have to trade a salary, they have, with the Tucker trade, backed themselves into a corner needing to trade an OF'er right now. It's seemed recently that the Cubs and Yankees were close, and that very well may be the case. But we've also seen a few things that make you wonder if there's some small snag. 

A situation of trading for Castillo would obviously represent a different case in that it'd be assumed most of the year the Cubs would have to move someone out. But I think the Yankees, as well as other teams, know the Cubs need to move an OF'er right now, too. 

In much the same way that the Cubs probably saw Tucker as a thing they had to do now (and I don't blame them one bit - good trade!) and worry about the Bellinger part later they may seem a trade like Castillo too good to pass up (I'm not sure I'd agree with them, I'm just using it as an example) now that they'd worry about the 2nd step later.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I'm thinking Tucker should command a salary not too far below Soto's, right? We're talking about a more complete player and more of a chance to provide defensive cover for 5 or so years. He's probably thinking he should get 12/500 or even 600 if he has another monster year like that.

[LBiittner]

Props to Matt Trueblood. Bernstein from The Score was quoting Matt this afternoon regarding the potential Tucker deal

[Bertz]

25 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I'm thinking Tucker should command a salary not too far below Soto's, right? We're talking about a more complete player and more of a chance to provide defensive cover for 5 or so years. He's probably thinking he should get 12/500 or even 600 if he has another monster year like that.

I mean Soto's been worth nearly 4 WAR more the last three years, plus the age difference.

I think if Tucker showed a continuation of what he did in limited time last year and puts up like 8 WAR, yeah he can probably approach $50/year in FA next winter.  But I think if he settles in at his averages there's a decent chance he doesn't crack $400M.  The Corey Seager deal plus inflation feels right IMO.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I mean Soto's been worth nearly 4 WAR more the last three years, plus the age difference.

I think if Tucker showed a continuation of what he did in limited time last year and puts up like 8 WAR, yeah he can probably approach $50/year in FA next winter.  But I think if he settles in at his averages there's a decent chance he doesn't crack $400M.  The Corey Seager deal plus inflation feels right IMO.

Yeah, 10/375 feels right

[Petrey10]

49 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Yeah, 10/375 feels right

lol for who? 
 

Soto just got 51/yr

 

id say Tucker is lower than that and shorter years bc he’s slightly older

 

 

but 37.5 per yr seems awfully light… especially if we want to resign him before FA which I’d imagine we do since we just gave up a haul for him.

[Derwood]

Let's wish into existence PCA leveling up and leading off and stealing 100 bases

[Cuzi]

9 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

lol for who? 
 

Soto just got 51/yr

 

id say Tucker is lower than that and shorter years bc he’s slightly older

 

 

but 37.5 per yr seems awfully light… especially if we want to resign him before FA which I’d imagine we do since we just gave up a haul for him.

There's currently only 4 players in baseball with a higher AAV than $37.5M and only 3 players in baseball with a larger contract than $375M. I dont think he signs for less than 12 years, though. He's not Soto, so let's not compare him to Soto. Tucker has never had a season of 6 fWAR in his career and he's 2 years older than Soto. Soto has bested Tucker's best year 4 times in 6 full seasons.

Edited December 14, 2024 by Cuzi

[Petrey10]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

There's currently only 4 players in baseball with a higher AAV than $37.5M and only 3 players in baseball with a larger contract than $375M. I dont think he signs for less than 12 years, though. He's not Soto, so let's not compare him to Soto. Tucker has never had a season of 6 fWAR in his career and he's 2 years older than Soto. Soto has bested Tucker's best year 4 times in 6 full seasons.

Well you can say and wish he’s not compared to Soto’s contract but he’s going to. That’s how market value works.

 

he won’t get 765 I plainly said that. But he’s gonna be way higher than 375

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

Well you can say and wish he’s not compared to Soto’s contract but he’s going to.

It's just pure delusion to think that. He'll get compared to his comps. Soto is not a comp for Kyle Tucker.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

20 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

lol for who? 
 

Soto just got 51/yr

 

id say Tucker is lower than that and shorter years bc he’s slightly older

 

 

but 37.5 per yr seems awfully light… especially if we want to resign him before FA which I’d imagine we do since we just gave up a haul for him.

I think people’s expectations are skewed by the Ohtani and Soto deals, but I also don’t think people quite appreciate how unique those two players are.

[WhyCantWeWin]

26 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

I think people’s expectations are skewed by the Ohtani and Soto deals, but I also don’t think people quite appreciate how unique those two players are.

Yeah those are 2 generational players that dont really hit free agency often. 

[profisme]

5 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

Well I DID recently write about Kevin Orie on this very site!

Maybe once Randall Simon is done fixing sausage races he can be a bat off the bench.

Randall Simon is still the best bad ball hitter I've ever seen play for the Cubs.

[Rob]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

Let's wish into existence PCA leveling up and leading off and stealing 100 bases

I love PCA, but at this stage in his career he'd be a poor fit for the top of the lineup.

[profisme]

9 minutes ago, Rob said:

I love PCA, but at this stage in his career he'd be a poor fit for the top of the lineup.

Hire Brett Butler to work with him exclusively for the next 3 years to teach bunting technique and he would be the perfect leadoff guy.

[Cuzi]

7 minutes ago, profisme said:

Hire Brett Butler to work with him exclusively for the next 3 years to teach bunting technique and he would be the perfect leadoff guy.

He's not Billy Hamilton. I dont want him thinking bunt every time he's at the plate.

[Stratos]

There's a world, probably not option #1, where Busch is playing 3B and somebody else is at 1b.  At least he gives us flexibility to find either a 3b or 1b to replace Paredes.

Bellinger can play 1b but he's likely gone, so then we have Ballesteros, Mervis internally, maybe Long especially later in the year?  They can acquire an MLB corner guy via trade or FA too.

Shaw now seems the #1 option at 3B and Triantos at 2b moving forward when Nico leaves.  I like the floor on Triantos but not a high celling.

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, Stratos said:

There's a world, probably not option #1, where Busch is playing 3B and somebody else is at 1b.

No there is not. He's played 637 innings at 3B, including college, with 17 errors and a .910 fielding percentage. Put the playstation controller down. He's not making a move off of 1B for 2B and for damn sure not 3B. He'd still be on the Dodgers if he could.

Edited December 14, 2024 by Cuzi

[profisme]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

He's not Billy Hamilton. I dont want him thinking bunt every time he's at the plate.

But, his speed is so elite that if you added that skill to his toolbox he would be so much more valuable.  Butler is the single best bunter since I've been born.