Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 9-18-24

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Regular Season Game:

Iowa at Rochester, 5:05 pm CT

RHP Connor Noland (42.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 5.09 FIP, 44 K, 12 BB)

Tennessee has the day off. Game 2 of the SL Division Series is on Thursday.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Finish strong to increase your trade value. He is one guy I definitely see the Cubs trading. 

[Bertz]

I know steals are easier to come by than ever, but I still love that Triantos and Shaw both have that in their games.

 

[CubinNY]

14 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Finish strong to increase your trade value. He is one guy I definitely see the Cubs trading. 

I sure hope you are wrong. 

[Bertz]

Fun Statcast Fact(s) I just looked up.  Among our quintet if hitters at Iowa Kevin Alcantara has the:

- Lowest chase rate

- Highest hard hit rate and average exit velocity (by quite a bit)

- 2nd highest max exit velo

- 3rd in overall contact rate, 2nd on just in zone contact

He's hitting way too many groundballs, and he/Shaw/Triantos are still very much in SSS territory, but he doesn't look super raw on paper.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

51 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Fun Statcast Fact(s) I just looked up.  Among our quintet if hitters at Iowa Kevin Alcantara has the:

- Lowest chase rate

- Highest hard hit rate and average exit velocity (by quite a bit)

- 2nd highest max exit velo

- 3rd in overall contact rate, 2nd on just in zone contact

He's hitting way too many groundballs, and he/Shaw/Triantos are still very much in SSS territory, but he doesn't look super raw on paper.

[Cubs420psd]

23 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Finish strong to increase your trade value. He is one guy I definitely see the Cubs trading. 

Yep him or Triantos.

 

Maybe both.

[craig]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

..He's hitting way too many groundballs...

Dumb questions from a guy who is neither a coach nor a SABER expert.  

1. How adjustable is "too-many-groundballs"? 
2. Like, is that something that can be coached away and adjusted away? 
3. Or would it take a significant change in how a guy swings to change that, and the cure might be worse than the disease?  
4. Alcantara has been a pro for 6 years receiving pro coaching and input.  Every player is constantly trying to adjust and optimize his game and production.  I often think that guys are pretty smart at figuring out what's the optimal compromise for themselves.  Perhaps Alcantara has done that, and has already deduced that his current approach, ground-balls and all, is better than any adjusted approach?
5. Are there many examples in pro ball for guys who have flipped from ground-ball guys to air guys?  Maybe that kind of change happens often, with great successful profit?  

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, craig said:

Dumb questions from a guy who is neither a coach nor a SABER expert.  

1. How adjustable is "too-many-groundballs"? 
2. Like, is that something that can be coached away and adjusted away? 
3. Or would it take a significant change in how a guy swings to change that, and the cure might be worse than the disease?  
4. Alcantara has been a pro for 6 years receiving pro coaching and input.  Every player is constantly trying to adjust and optimize his game and production.  I often think that guys are pretty smart at figuring out what's the optimal compromise for themselves.  Perhaps Alcantara has done that, and has already deduced that his current approach, ground-balls and all, is better than any adjusted approach?
5. Are there many examples in pro ball for guys who have flipped from ground-ball guys to air guys?  Maybe that kind of change happens often, with great successful profit?  

I think a lot of the low hanging fruit has been plucked, but it's certainly an area that can improve especially with a young guy.  Like just look across the outfield at Owen Caissie.  He was at 47% two years ago at SB and now is a smidge under 40% now at Iowa.

Feels similar to significant changes in walk and K rates, where it happens often enough that you know it's possible, but infrequently enough that it's clearly not just a flip of a switch (at least without breaking something else in the process).

And while uncommon it's definitely possible to succeed as a power hitter with a 50+% GB rate.  Yandy Diaz, Christian Yelich, Vlad Jr., etc.  Especially if Kevin's contact and discipline numbers stay so shockingly solid.  Like Alcantara's in Zone Contact rate is 0.2% off of what Freddie Freeman and Juan Soto are running in MLB right now.  Obviously doing it at Iowa is very different, but just to illustrate the level of contact he's currently 1making.  I know with his long levers I was certainly expecting Dansby Swanson/Chris Morel levels of beatable in the zone and he's nowhere near that.

[mul21]

12 hours ago, craig said:

Dumb questions from a guy who is neither a coach nor a SABER expert.  

1. How adjustable is "too-many-groundballs"? 
2. Like, is that something that can be coached away and adjusted away? 
3. Or would it take a significant change in how a guy swings to change that, and the cure might be worse than the disease?  
4. Alcantara has been a pro for 6 years receiving pro coaching and input.  Every player is constantly trying to adjust and optimize his game and production.  I often think that guys are pretty smart at figuring out what's the optimal compromise for themselves.  Perhaps Alcantara has done that, and has already deduced that his current approach, ground-balls and all, is better than any adjusted approach?
5. Are there many examples in pro ball for guys who have flipped from ground-ball guys to air guys?  Maybe that kind of change happens often, with great successful profit?  

I think all these answers are really that it depends on the guy.  The Cardinals have been trying to get Jordan Walker to elevate the ball more for several years now and even with a guy who's been a top prospect from the jump, he hasn't been able to successfully implement those changes without wrecking the rest of his approach.  The last trip back to Memphis for him he reverted to his old swing and has been having much better success in spite of more ground balls.