Rule 5 eligibles after the 2005 season

[biittner77]

What is the status of a guy that was a Rule 5 pick away from you, and then gets returned, i.e., Hagerty? Do you have to go through all this again next year, and make the same kind of choice? I'm guessing the answer is yes, but I don't know.

 

Your guess is correct.

 

 

Ugh....I hate Rule V. I understand how it helps the players...blah blah...but it hurts the Cubbies...hmpfph!

 

FYI it's rule 5 not rule V. Though it may seem to hurt the Cubs it has made them $125K richer this season. :lol:

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I thought I was done worrying about the Rule 5 Draft for awhile and Tim pulls me right back in! :x

No fair. I was answering somebody else's question! :D

 

Thanks for answering this, Tim. That's just the pessimistic cub fan in me!

This list makes me think we will be moving some guys in trades througout the season.

 

Maybe some will be going to Philadelphia in exchange for Wagner.

[RyCubsFan]

What is the status of a guy that was a Rule 5 pick away from you, and then gets returned, i.e., Hagerty? Do you have to go through all this again next year, and make the same kind of choice? I'm guessing the answer is yes, but I don't know.

 

Your guess is correct.

 

 

Ugh....I hate Rule V. I understand how it helps the players...blah blah...but it hurts the Cubbies...hmpfph!

 

FYI it's rule 5 not rule V. Though it may seem to hurt the Cubs it has made them $125K richer this season. :lol:

 

 

ha, yeah that was a roman numeral...not that i'm roman...hmmm

 

good point about the money.

[CuseCubFan69]

I thought I was done worrying about the Rule 5 Draft for awhile and Tim pulls me right back in! :x

No fair. I was answering somebody else's question! :D

 

Thanks for answering this, Tim. That's just the pessimistic cub fan in me!

This list makes me think we will be moving some guys in trades througout the season.

 

That's what I'm thinking! I say move Pie for some really average left handed loogy.

[Illini Iceman]

Was Bay going to be on this list next year if he hadn't been traded to Cleveland?

[sporrer17]

Wow..quite a list here.

 

First off, here's a list of players i DO NOT see returning with the Cubs(at least on the 40 man), so they're spots will be open:

 

Crouthers (just doesn't offer enough value in a very mediocre bullpen)

Vasquez (wasn't he already removed? if not, he will be this year IMO)

Novoa (isn't all that great, and is another arm that isn't worth much)

Rohlicek (big LH pitcher won't be easily dismissed, but if he stinks it up...)

 

There's 4 MINOR LEAGUE spots right there. Not to mention the fact that Cedeno figures on the bench next year. There's another minor league spot freeing up. 5 spots.

 

Now on to who we SHOULD protect...

 

Pie, Dopirak, and Petrick WILL be protected, end of discussion. Marshall should be, Murton should be. There's 5 guys right there, all who are legit prospects, not the Vasquez/Rohlicek/Novoa junk we've had on our 40 man lately.

[Tim]

Was Bay going to be on this list next year if he hadn't been traded to Cleveland?

Yep.

[craig]

So, what does it take for spots to open up? 1) Guys currently on 40 but in minors to more up to majors next year. Good candidates include Cedeno (replace Neifi?), Ohman (replace Bartosh?), Mitre and Guzman. I don't expect any of them to open next April in the Cubs minors, even if they do still have options. Pinto is another possibility (replace Rusch or Rem). Lewis and Fontenot are also good candidates, one of whom might replace Macias.

 

So I think it's honestly possible that as many as 6 minor leaguers could plausibly replace major leaguers currently opening. (Other current openers might also get replaced, but at least some by veterans). Actually, it could be even more. If six 40-man minor leaguers become 25-man major leaguers, that could open six spots for others.

 

2) Other minor leaguers currently on the 40 who will perhaps be removed by next year..

You're assuming the Cubs are going to be willing to head into 2006 with an awful lot of youth on the bench. I think I remember hearing comments from the Cubs in the past that they like using veterans for bench players, but I could be misattributing that. It's basically a baseball truism that gets repeated often, though.

 

Just to clarify, I don't actually assume the cubs will carry 6 rookies. I was just trying to think of areas in which a rookie *might* have a *plausible* (not necessarily probable) shot to break in. I think Cedeno, lefty reliever, rotation starter, each of those are spots where we have good candidates who might emerge (or might not, of course), and where the existing big-leaguers might possibly not justify returning. I don't really expect to break with 6 rookies, but likely that several of those possible places would actually happen.

 

Also, it's worth noting that what constitutes youth on the bench now and what that will look like a year from now can change? Right now we have Dubois, Bartosh, Wellemeyer, Wuertz, and Leiecester all on the roster. Dubois, Wuertz, and Leiecester all spent time with the team last year, so don't really seem like that risky or totally unknown unpredictable. But that's five guys. Last spring, mightn't it have seemed like assuming "an awful lot of youth" to project this year's roster with 5 players like that on it? But now, they don't seem that surprising, and it's typical that there be a spot or two in which a temporary (Wellemeyer) makes it as result of injury.

 

Point being, maybe Guzman will make it next year, but it won't seem that radical, because perhaps he'll have spent 3 months with Cubs and have already shown himself competent, ala Leiecester. Or maybe Ohman will spend as much time on this year's team as did Wuertz on last year's, and with as much success, so that he won't seem like much of a stretch. In the likely event that one of the infielders gets DL'd this year, Cedeno or one of the 2B's could spend some time with the team. Mitre may spend some time as rotation replacement, pending injuries. So I think it's possible that while there likely will be 2-4 guys on the roster, and possibly as many as 6, several of those will probably not seem that radical nesxt spring because they'll already have partly established their big-league competence between now and then.

 

If it ends up getting tight, as somebody else mentioned, there does seem a pretty big crowd of guys who could be derostered. Ohman, Wellemeyer, Koronka, Rohlicek, Lewis, and Fontenot had obviously come to my mind. But I hadn't even remembered that Crouthers and Novoa were also eating up roster spots. I'm probably still overlooking others. But that's at least 8 guys for whom it would be no great shock if any of them ended up being disappointing enough this year so that they might get derostered next year, in the event that some of the rising guys end up looking like must-protect guys.

 

I also agree with somebody's point that some clutter could also be relieved via trade. Hendry has obviously not exhausted the money, there will be cash for a deal if needed. And certainly between the rotation, the bullpen, the outfield, and injury, it's probably too much to hope that there won't be at least one acute "need" that becomes manifest in due time, and that is not adequately solved internally.

 

Point being, I think there may be some challenging Rule 5 choices next winter. But when it comes down to it, I expect guys left off will not be that great of a tragedy. The guys who combine both defense and hitting (players), or both stuff and control (pitchers), both established performance and potential, and good character, and good health, I think those guys will be safe. The guys unprotected will again have some issues, be they character, or health, or control, or stuff, or defense, or plate discipline, or whatever.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

With six weeks of the season now gone, I think we can begin to clarify a few of the protection choices.

 

IMO, Brownlie and Connolly do not look to be protected. Nolasco and Hill have replaced them on my list. Sing, Petrick, Pie, Murton, and Dope are locks. Because of injuries, Blasko and Hagerty must be un-protected. Neither has shown anything beyond high-A, and neither has shown the ability to stay healthy.

 

The tough choices at this point I think will boil down to JK Ryu, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, and Angel Guzman. How can you use up a valuable protection spot on someone like Guzman who is admittedly talented, but simply cannot stay healthy? Marshall is not making the progress his talent suggests either, though again, injuries play a role.

 

For this reason, I think you use Marshall and/or Guzman in trades, to get something of value for them.

 

Which leaves Ryu and Marmol to be protected, that's 9 minor leaguers in all, plus your 25-man big league roster, and 6 slots to spare on tweeners like Wellemeyer or Leicester, new talent acquired via trades, or other options.

[T2E]

How can you use up a valuable protection spot on someone like Guzman who is admittedly talented, but simply cannot stay healthy?

 

I think a lot will depend on how he performs when he returns from his injury.

[craig]

IMO, Brownlie and Connolly do not look to be protected. Nolasco and Hill have replaced them on my list. Sing, Petrick, Pie, Murton, and Dope are locks. Because of injuries, Blasko and Hagerty must be un-protected. Neither has shown anything beyond high-A, and neither has shown the ability to stay healthy.

 

The tough choices at this point I think will boil down to JK Ryu, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, and Angel Guzman. How can you use up a valuable protection spot on someone like Guzman who is admittedly talented, but simply cannot stay healthy? Marshall is not making the progress his talent suggests either, though again, injuries play a role.

 

For this reason, I think you use Marshall and/or Guzman in trades, to get something of value for them.

 

Which leaves Ryu and Marmol to be protected, that's 9 minor leaguers in all, plus your 25-man big league roster, and 6 slots to spare on tweeners like Wellemeyer or Leicester, new talent acquired via trades, or other options.

 

At present, here are 9 guys I'd like to add: P: Hill, Marshall, Nolasco, Marmol, Petrick; Players: Pie, Murton, Sing, Dopirak I think those will all fit, assuming:

a) that one of them (either Pie, Hill, or Murton) plus Cedeno (or some other current 40-man guy who'd still have options next year, from the Fontenot/Aardsma/Pinto/Koronka/rohlicek/Guzman pool) are on the 25-man roster; and

b) Lewis and Crouthers gets kicked off the 40-man roster.

 

Craig, Ryu, Pigs, VanBuren, Connolly, Kelton, Greenberg, there just isn't room for everybody. If Petrick is injured, or Dopirak doesn't merit 40-man protection, or trades open up more spots, then one of those guys could slip in.

 

To fit the 40-man, as mentined above, assume Pie and Cedeno (and of course Wuertz) would make the 25-man.

a) Five 40-man position players in the minors: Murton, Sing, Fontenot, Soto, and Dopirak, in that order.

b) Ten 40-man pitchers in the minors: Guzman, Hill, Marshall, Pinto, Marmol, Aardsma, Rohlicek, Novoa, Petrick, Koronka. Those guys will all still have options next year.

 

Perhaps they'll want Pie sent down to the minors at first, at least long enough to defer free agency. In that case, either one of my minor leaguers has to be traded up to the 25-man (perhaps Hill, or Fontenot, or one of the pitchers...). Or else you can't have so many prospects on the 40-man.

 

Currently there are 43 names on the 40-man roster, counting the three 60-day guys (Nomar, Fox, Williamson) and the retired man (Crouthers). Of the 43 names, 9 are pitchers who can't be sent to the minors next April without waivers:

 

Lefties:

Ohman

Bartosh

Old Righties:

Fox

Borowski

Williamson

Young Righties:

Wellemeyer

Mitre (I'm not positive on him, though)

Leiecester

Williams

 

Assuming a bullpen with 2 LHP, Dempster, and wuertz as givens, and a healthy team, there could be only 2-3 spots open for other RH relievers.

 

If Hendry decides which 2-3 from the above group (I'd hope Williamson or an outside guy from the old guys, and Wellemeyer and Mitre from the young righties?), then he can protect 9 new guys from Rule 5 as I suggested above. So he might want to trade two of those four RHP-without-options before Rule 5 decision comes.

 

Very likely he'll want to keep all four of those guys, and let them compete in spring training (in hopes that Williams will rediscover some fastball). In that case, he'd have two fewer spots available. If he pulls a Kelton and keeps Richie Lewis, that would cost another spot. Ways to make space:

 

a) protect fewer new guys. Expose guys as needed from the Petrick, Dopirak, Nolasco, Sing pool.

 

b) trade from my list of guys I want to protect or that I want to send to the minors

 

c) deroster one or two guys that I'd like to keep, be that Koronka or Soto or Novoa or Rohlicek or whomever.

 

d) plan to fill one or two spots on the 25-man roster with non-roster players. If you sign a 5th outfielder to a non-roster contract, then he can be added once you've decided which of Leiecester/Williams/Wellemeyer is going to get cut, or once some pitcher gets designated for the 60-day DL.

 

Summary and bottom line: I don't expect the Rule 5 thing needs to be that big of a problem, beyond Brownlie/Ryu/VanBuren/Craig/Greenburg/Pigs/Hagerty type cats. However, that's what I thought last year; until they surprised me by protecting guys like Koronka and Ohman, total suprises, and insisted on wasting a spot on the beloved Kelton.

 

If they insist on keeping Lewis, and protecting guys like Pigs and VanBuren, then it could be more problematic.

[Jehrico]

Does everyone still think Dope should be protected? After the down year he is having, I don't think anyone is going to bank on him sticking on their 25 man roster next year, unless he rebounds in a big, big way to end the year. That may be one less name we have to worry about protecting this year (not to imply that that is a good thing though...). If Dope keeps up the kind of year he is having, I wouldn't blame Hendry for not protecting him, he isn't close enough to being ML ready for someone to claim.

[craig]

I agree. At this point, I don't think there is any reason to protect Dopirak. It's almost August, and he's only barely reached the almighty 10-HR mark! He's hitting .244, OBP below .300, OPS of .671! And this for a guy who's a bad fielding 1B/DH! Man, he's really had a bad year. He turns 22 after the season. Would be a total waste to protect him.

 

Other guys previously on the "must protect" list may also be off now. Petrick's arm is obviously shot. I'm not sure his 5.99 ERA in A-ball commands a roster spot.

 

Now that Marshall's arm is hurt, I wonder how crucial it is to protect him? I suppose that may depend on how bad the injury is, and whether or not he's a surgery guy or not.

 

Nolasco has also had some bad pitching lately, probably related to his own shoulder problems.

 

VanBuren has continued to do well, so perhaps he will get a spot.

[Brian]

I'd protect Brownlie, it looks like he is doing pretty good from the Pen. I'm pretty sure some low level team would take a chance on a early first rounder.

[T2E]

I'd protect Brownlie, it looks like he is doing pretty good from the Pen. I'm pretty sure some low level team would take a chance on a early first rounder.

 

I don't see any point in protecting Brownlie. He's a mediocre prospect, someone whose ceiling is that of a decent middle relief guy. I'd rather protect someone like Nolasco, who may have a future in the back of a rotation somewhere, than Brownlie, who isn't close to the prospect he used to be.

[RyCubsFan]

Will Montanez be eligble for Rule V?

[sporrer17]

Will Montanez be eligble for Rule V?

 

I believe he is, and I believe he was last year, was he not? This year would be much more of a concern, IMO. If he plays well at AA to finish the season, there's no reason he SHOULDN'T be protected.

[biittner77]

Will Montanez be eligble for Rule V?

 

I believe he is, and I believe he was last year, was he not? This year would be much more of a concern, IMO. If he plays well at AA to finish the season, there's no reason he SHOULDN'T be protected.

 

If he was still a middle infielder they'd have to protect him. As a corner OF his numbers are not as impressive. It probably depends more on who else gets traded. Kornka and I believe Rohlicek are taking up 40 man spots. Not hard to imagine either being thrown in a trade or clearing waivers.

[RyCubsFan]

When did Adam Greenberg become a prospect?

 

Was it when he was assigned to the AFL taxi-squad?

 

Was it after he held his own in the AFL?

 

Was it after he was invited to spring training?

 

Was it after Fleiti stated that he "will" play in the majors?

 

Was it after someone (I can't remember who) called him the best rounded OF in the Cubs' system?

 

His numbers in 2004 were less impressive than his 2003 numbers but he is now considered a prospect? Why?

 

Did he grow this winter? Lose a year in an age scandal?

 

Signing off, a confused Cub fan.

I've considered him a prospect since he was drafted. I've been calling him one of my favorite minor leaguers ever since. Him and Theriot. It's kinda worked out for Adam, not so much for Ryan.

 

---- edited to add ----

 

Check my 2003 pre-season prospect list as evidence of his long-standing status.

 

 

Seems to be working for Ryan this year! As of right now, I'd rather see Ryan on the 40 man than Lewis.

[biittner77]

This thread is to list the players that will be eligible for the rule 5 draft if they're not placed on the 40 man roster. It is by no means a complete list at this point. I'm just hitting the highlights here so that we can refer to this throughout the year. If I'm missing anyone or if it needs to be updated, let me know and I'll edit the list.

 

Players who were eligible in 2004 that should be healthier or more experienced and closer to the pros in 2005:

 

JK Ryu

Ricky Nolasco

Carlos Marmol

Jon Connolly

Ryan O'Malley

Carmen Pignatiello

Rich Hill

Jason Wylie

Hagerty

Carlos Vazquez

 

Buck Coats

Matt Craig

Micah Hoffpauir

Adam Greenberg

Dwaine Bacon

Brandon Sing

 

The following will be newly eligible for the Rule 5:

 

Bobby Brownlie

Chadd Blasko

Sean Marshall

Billy Petrick

 

Felix Pie

Brian Dopirak

Jake Fox

Matt Murton

 

I though it might be time to start re examing where things stand. The bolded players have already been added to the 40 man roster.

 

* I don't see Van Buren on the list but he's on the 40 man as well

 

It's hard to imagine exposing Sing or Pie. I doubt they'll protect Dopirak.

 

Tim, did you put the pitchers in most likely to be drafted order? Ryu is probably safe but the Cubs should protect Nolasco. Could a team effectively hide Marshall?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This thread is to list the players that will be eligible for the rule 5 draft if they're not placed on the 40 man roster. It is by no means a complete list at this point. I'm just hitting the highlights here so that we can refer to this throughout the year. If I'm missing anyone or if it needs to be updated, let me know and I'll edit the list.

 

Players who were eligible in 2004 that should be healthier or more experienced and closer to the pros in 2005:

 

JK Ryu

Ricky Nolasco

Carlos Marmol

Jon Connolly

Ryan O'Malley

Carmen Pignatiello

Rich Hill

Jason Wylie

Hagerty

Carlos Vazquez

 

Buck Coats

Matt Craig

Micah Hoffpauir

Adam Greenberg

Dwaine Bacon

Brandon Sing

 

The following will be newly eligible for the Rule 5:

 

Bobby Brownlie

Chadd Blasko

Sean Marshall

Billy Petrick

 

Felix Pie

Brian Dopirak

Jake Fox

Matt Murton

 

I though it might be time to start re examing where things stand. The bolded players have already been added to the 40 man roster.

 

* I don't see Van Buren on the list but he's on the 40 man as well

 

It's hard to imagine exposing Sing or Pie. I doubt they'll protect Dopirak.

 

Tim, did you put the pitchers in most likely to be drafted order? Ryu is probably safe but the Cubs should protect Nolasco. Could a team effectively hide Marshall?

 

I think a team could easily hide Marshall. Or Marmol.

[Tim]

I'll have to go through the list again and update it. I won't have time tonight, but I'll do it this week.

 

In addition, I'll do an analysis of the 40 man roster to see who might get bumped off in favor of the rule 5 eligibles.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

It's mandatory for any thread so Neifi and Macias plz.

[brinoch]

Here are some 40-man thoughts and ramblings...

 

Right now, the 40-man comes to 42 because Wood and Fox are on the 60-day DL; however, after the season's over, you can't hide them on the 60-day DL any more. Here are the members of the 40-man who are under contract, or controlled by the Cubs for 2006:

1. Adam Greenberg - OF

2. Corey Patterson - OF

3. Matt Murton - OF

4. Ryan Theriot - IF

5. Aramis Ramirez- 3B

6. Richard Lewis - 2B

7. Derrek Lee - 1B

8. Mike Fontenot - IF

9. Ronny Cedeno - SS

10. David Aardsma - RP

11. Angel Guzman - SP

12. Rich Hill - SP/RP

13. John Koronka - RP/SP

14. Jon Leicester - RP/SP

15. Greg Maddux - SP

16. Sergio Mitre - SP/RP

17. Roberto Novoa- RP

18. Will Ohman - RP

19. Renyel Pinto - SP

20. Mark Prior - SP

21. Russ Rohlicek- RP

22. Jermain Van Buren - RP

23. Todd Wellemeyer - RP

24. Jerome Williams - SP

25. Kerry Wood - SP

26. Michael Wuertz - RP

27. Carlos Zambrano - SP

28. Michael Barrett - C

29. Henry Blanco - C

30. Geovany Soto - C

 

On Oct. 15th, I believe the following players are FA's and off the 40-man roster, although the starred players have some form of an option:

31. *Jeromy Burnitz - OF (goodbye)

32. Ben Grieve - OF

33. Nomar Garciaparra- SS

34. Neifi Perez - SS

35. Jose Macias - IF

36. Scott McCLain- 1B/3B (not 100% sure about Die Hard)

37. Jerry Hairston - 2B/OF

38. *Todd Walker - 2B (likely to be exercised by Cubs)

39. Chad Fox- RP

40. Ryan Dempster - RP

41. *Glendon Rusch - SP/RP (likely to be exercised by Rusch)

42. *Scott Williamson (goodbye)

 

I think the Cubs should remove these 3 players from the 40-man:

1. John Koronka - RP/SP

2. Richard Lewis - 2B

3. Russ Rohlicek- RP

 

I think the Cubs should find a way to keep these players:

1. Ryan Dempster - RP

2. Nomar Garciaparra - SS

3. Jerry Hairston - 2B/OF

 

Decisions need to be made on these players. Some, or all, of these players will be traded:

1. Jon Leicester - RP/SP

2. Sergio Mitre - SP/RP

3. Corey Patterson - OF

4. Glendon Rusch - RP/SP

5. Todd Walker - 2B

6. Todd Wellemeyer - RP

7. Jerome Williams - SP

 

The roster, then, would have these spots available:

 

Outfield

1. Adam Greenberg - OF

2. **Corey Patterson - OF

3. Matt Murton - OF

4. - OF

5. - OF

6. - OF

 

Infield/Utility

7. Ryan Theriot - IF

8. Aramis Ramirez- 3B

9. Derrek Lee - 1B

10. Mike Fontenot - IF

11. Ronny Cedeno - SS

12. - SS/2B/3B/OF?

13. ** - 2B

14. - 2B/OF

15. - 1B

16. - 3B

 

Pitchers

17. David Aardsma - RP

18. Angel Guzman - SP

19. **Rich Hill or Sergio Mitre - SP

20. **Jon Leicester or Todd Wellemeyer or Jerome Williams - SP/RP

21. Greg Maddux - SP

22. Roberto Novoa- RP

23. Will Ohman - RP

24. Renyel Pinto - SP

25. Mark Prior - SP

26. Jermain Van Buren - RP

27. Kerry Wood - SP

28. Michael Wuertz - RP

29. Carlos Zambrano - SP

30. ** - RP/SP

31. - RP/SP

32. - SP

33. - SP

34. - SP

35. - SP

36. - P

37. - P

 

Catchers

38. Michael Barrett - C

39. Henry Blanco - C

40. Geovany Soto - C

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I definitely wouldn't bother protecting Billy Petrick as he comes back from his labrum surgery. I wouldn't protect Hagerty or Blasko. I definitely would protect Marmol, Marshall, Nolasco, Pie and Sing this offseason, haven't thought much about Craig but he'd come after those first 5.