Rule 5 eligibles after the 2005 season

[Tim]

This thread is to list the players that will be eligible for the rule 5 draft if they're not placed on the 40 man roster. It is by no means a complete list at this point. I'm just hitting the highlights here so that we can refer to this throughout the year. If I'm missing anyone or if it needs to be updated, let me know and I'll edit the list.

 

Players who were eligible in 2004 that should be healthier or more experienced and closer to the pros in 2005:

 

JK Ryu

Ricky Nolasco

Carlos Marmol

Jon Connolly

Ryan O'Malley

Carmen Pignatiello

Rich Hill

Jason Wylie

Hagerty

Carlos Vazquez

 

Buck Coats

Matt Craig

Micah Hoffpauir

Adam Greenberg

Dwaine Bacon

Brandon Sing

 

The following will be newly eligible for the Rule 5:

 

Bobby Brownlie

Chadd Blasko

Sean Marshall

Billy Petrick

 

Felix Pie

Brian Dopirak

Jake Fox

Matt Murton

Edited June 3, 2005 by Tim

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Geez, that's some list.

[Tim]

Geez, that's some list.

With a few exceptions like Grant Johnson and EP, it's my top 30 list minus the guys who are already on the 40 man.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Out of curiosity, I wonder how this compares to the crunch that other systems have?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Geez, that's some list.

With a few exceptions like Grant Johnson and EP, it's my top 30 list minus the guys who are already on the 40 man.

 

Man, that is scary. How many roster spots do you think will open up?

 

Based on how things are right now, these are the guys I think the Cubs must protect: Sean Marshall, Billy Petrick, Felix Pie, Brian Dopirak and Matt Murton.

 

Out of curiosity, I wonder how this compares to the crunch that other systems have?

 

This is a good point. I'd guess many other teams don't have this many quality players eligble for the draft if they're not protected and many of the more talented minor leaguers have just had less than 4 years in the system.

[Tim]

Out of curiosity, I wonder how this compares to the crunch that other systems have?

An interesting value added service NSBB could provide as a website would be to track what prospects on all teams are going to be rule 5 eligible as well as who is currently on 40 man rosters that will be running out of options at what point.

 

Would be a pain to maintain, though.

[YearofDaCubs]

Ouch. Those are significant names on that list.

[craig]

This thread is to list the players that will be eligible for the rule 5 draft if they're not placed on the 40 man roster. It is by no means a complete list at this point. I'm just hitting the highlights here so that we can refer to this throughout the year. If I'm missing anyone or if it needs to be updated, let me know and I'll edit the list.

 

Players who were eligible in 2004 that should be healthier or more experienced and closer to the pros in 2005:

 

JK Ryu

Ricky Nolasco

Carlos Marmol

Jon Connolly

Ryan O'Malley

Carmen Pignatiello

Rich Hill

Jason Wylie

Hagerty

Carlos Vazquez

 

Buck Coats

Matt Craig

Micah Hoffpauir

Adam Greenberg

Dwaine Bacon

Brandon Sing

 

The following will be newly eligible for the Rule 5:

 

Bobby Brownlie

Chadd Blasko

Sean Marshall

Billy Petrick

 

Felix Pie

Brian Dopirak

Jake Fox

Matt Murton

 

Nice compilation, Tim, thanks! that's pretty helpful.

 

Can anybody think of how many guys are last-year options guys this current season who are or will be in the minors? I suppose this will be Wellemeyer's last year on options. Leiecester too, although he'll already make the team so doesn't matter.

 

So, what does it take for spots to open up? 1) Guys currently on 40 but in minors to more up to majors next year. Good candidates include Cedeno (replace Neifi?), Ohman (replace Bartosh?), Mitre and Guzman. I don't expect any of them to open next April in the Cubs minors, even if they do still have options. Pinto is another possibility (replace Rusch or Rem). Lewis and Fontenot are also good candidates, one of whom might replace Macias.

 

So I think it's honestly possible that as many as 6 minor leaguers could plausibly replace major leaguers currently opening. (Other current openers might also get replaced, but at least some by veterans). Actually, it could be even more. If six 40-man minor leaguers become 25-man major leaguers, that could open six spots for others.

 

2) Other minor leaguers currently on the 40 who will perhaps be removed by next year, even if they don't make it. Candidates would seem to include Rohlicek; if he goes backwards this year, he might be right back off, ala Vasquez? Ohman; if he doesn't show what it takes to make it up this year, he's not going to be back down. Possibly Koronka. Basically all the non-Pinto lefties on the roster from the high minors are close enough that either they need to show they are viable this year, and perhaps step up to majors, or they might be off. I'd think Wellemeyer might be Kelton-like: he's had his time as a prospect, it's getting to be decision time, either step up and be ready, or get traded, or get off the 40. They won't be able to option him next April, but he could be a guy who'd stay on for December and then enter camp with no options ala Kelton of this year. I'd also think that one of Lewis/Fontenot could be on the bubble. Neither are super young. Both probably need to do something this year; whichever of the two looks weaker by October might be at some risk. After another year in AAA they'll each need to look more ready for the next step if they both want to remain on the 40.

[Outshined_One]

Wow. Almost all of the guys on that list have a really good (if not guaranteed) shot of finishing the season at AA at the very least.

 

That isn't exactly a good thing for the Rule 5 Draft.

[JohnCub1]

Craig- good points and I also think that Greenberg could make the team in addition to Cedeno, Ohman, etc. I am not worried about Pie, Dopirak, or Petrick. I think the Cubs will protect them no matter what they do this season. The guys I am worried about are Sean Marshall and Jon Connolly.

 

Connolly, mainly, because he is a favorite of mine, and I think he will have another outstanding year. I would be worried if he has a year like last year in AA that someone would take him. IMO, the Cubs will not be able to protect Connolly no matter what he does(unless he is unconscious like last year). There are too many high ceiling guys to protect.

 

Sean Marshall also may be in trouble. He is another of my favorite players, and with Petrick, Pie, Dopirak, Murton, Brownlie(I hope), and Greenberg(I think he'll definately be put on), there may be no room for Marshall. Plus if we get Sisco back, it complicates things further.

 

It should be an interesting offseason, I guess I'll just hope for all these guys to have great years to make the decisions tough. My prediction(even though it is WAY too early to have any idea): Dopirak, Pie, Petrick, Murton, Greenberg, Sisco if we get him back.

[CuseCubFan69]

I thought I was done worrying about the Rule 5 Draft for awhile and Tim pulls me right back in! :x

[Tim]

I thought I was done worrying about the Rule 5 Draft for awhile and Tim pulls me right back in! :x

No fair. I was answering somebody else's question! :D

[Tim]

This thread is to list the players that will be eligible for the rule 5 draft if they're not placed on the 40 man roster. It is by no means a complete list at this point. I'm just hitting the highlights here so that we can refer to this throughout the year. If I'm missing anyone or if it needs to be updated, let me know and I'll edit the list.

 

Players who were eligible in 2004 that should be healthier or more experienced and closer to the pros in 2005:

 

JK Ryu

Ricky Nolasco

Carlos Marmol

Jon Connolly

Ryan O'Malley

Carmen Pignatiello

Rich Hill

Jason Wylie

Hagerty

Carlos Vazquez

 

Buck Coats

Matt Craig

Micah Hoffpauir

Adam Greenberg

Dwaine Bacon

Brandon Sing

 

The following will be newly eligible for the Rule 5:

 

Bobby Brownlie

Chadd Blasko

Sean Marshall

Billy Petrick

 

Felix Pie

Brian Dopirak

Jake Fox

Matt Murton

 

Nice compilation, Tim, thanks! that's pretty helpful.

 

Can anybody think of how many guys are last-year options guys this current season who are or will be in the minors? I suppose this will be Wellemeyer's last year on options. Leiecester too, although he'll already make the team so doesn't matter.

 

So, what does it take for spots to open up? 1) Guys currently on 40 but in minors to more up to majors next year. Good candidates include Cedeno (replace Neifi?), Ohman (replace Bartosh?), Mitre and Guzman. I don't expect any of them to open next April in the Cubs minors, even if they do still have options. Pinto is another possibility (replace Rusch or Rem). Lewis and Fontenot are also good candidates, one of whom might replace Macias.

 

So I think it's honestly possible that as many as 6 minor leaguers could plausibly replace major leaguers currently opening. (Other current openers might also get replaced, but at least some by veterans). Actually, it could be even more. If six 40-man minor leaguers become 25-man major leaguers, that could open six spots for others.

 

2) Other minor leaguers currently on the 40 who will perhaps be removed by next year, even if they don't make it. Candidates would seem to include Rohlicek; if he goes backwards this year, he might be right back off, ala Vasquez? Ohman; if he doesn't show what it takes to make it up this year, he's not going to be back down. Possibly Koronka. Basically all the non-Pinto lefties on the roster from the high minors are close enough that either they need to show they are viable this year, and perhaps step up to majors, or they might be off. I'd think Wellemeyer might be Kelton-like: he's had his time as a prospect, it's getting to be decision time, either step up and be ready, or get traded, or get off the 40. They won't be able to option him next April, but he could be a guy who'd stay on for December and then enter camp with no options ala Kelton of this year. I'd also think that one of Lewis/Fontenot could be on the bubble. Neither are super young. Both probably need to do something this year; whichever of the two looks weaker by October might be at some risk. After another year in AAA they'll each need to look more ready for the next step if they both want to remain on the 40.

You're assuming the Cubs are going to be willing to head into 2006 with an awful lot of youth on the bench. I think I remember hearing comments from the Cubs in the past that they like using veterans for bench players, but I could be misattributing that. It's basically a baseball truism that gets repeated often, though.

[weather2]

When did Adam Greenberg become a prospect?

 

Was it when he was assigned to the AFL taxi-squad?

 

Was it after he held his own in the AFL?

 

Was it after he was invited to spring training?

 

Was it after Fleiti stated that he "will" play in the majors?

 

Was it after someone (I can't remember who) called him the best rounded OF in the Cubs' system?

 

His numbers in 2004 were less impressive than his 2003 numbers but he is now considered a prospect? Why?

 

Did he grow this winter? Lose a year in an age scandal?

 

Signing off, a confused Cub fan.

[Tim]

When did Adam Greenberg become a prospect?

 

Was it when he was assigned to the AFL taxi-squad?

 

Was it after he held his own in the AFL?

 

Was it after he was invited to spring training?

 

Was it after Fleiti stated that he "will" play in the majors?

 

Was it after someone (I can't remember who) called him the best rounded OF in the Cubs' system?

 

His numbers in 2004 were less impressive than his 2003 numbers but he is now considered a prospect? Why?

 

Did he grow this winter? Lose a year in an age scandal?

 

Signing off, a confused Cub fan.

I've considered him a prospect since he was drafted. I've been calling him one of my favorite minor leaguers ever since. Him and Theriot. It's kinda worked out for Adam, not so much for Ryan.

 

---- edited to add ----

 

Check my 2003 pre-season prospect list as evidence of his long-standing status.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Craig- good points and I also think that Greenberg could make the team in addition to Cedeno, Ohman, etc. I am not worried about Pie, Dopirak, or Petrick. I think the Cubs will protect them no matter what they do this season. The guys I am worried about are Sean Marshall and Jon Connolly.

 

Connolly, mainly, because he is a favorite of mine, and I think he will have another outstanding year. I would be worried if he has a year like last year in AA that someone would take him. IMO, the Cubs will not be able to protect Connolly no matter what he does(unless he is unconscious like last year). There are too many high ceiling guys to protect.

 

Sean Marshall also may be in trouble. He is another of my favorite players, and with Petrick, Pie, Dopirak, Murton, Brownlie(I hope), and Greenberg(I think he'll definately be put on), there may be no room for Marshall. Plus if we get Sisco back, it complicates things further.

 

It should be an interesting offseason, I guess I'll just hope for all these guys to have great years to make the decisions tough. My prediction(even though it is WAY too early to have any idea): Dopirak, Pie, Petrick, Murton, Greenberg, Sisco if we get him back.

 

Please. There's no way the Cubs will expose Marshall, particularly after the Sisco situation this year. They'll protect him, even if it means dumping a utility player or bit reliever at the ML level.

 

I think the guys you absolutely must protect are Dope, Pie, Petrick and Marshall. Maybe Murton. Maybe Hill. Maybe maybe Brownlie and Connolly. Though that's now 8 names.

 

If Brownlie doesn't show something good this year, the Cubs should move him in a mid-season trade, since Hendry is likely to be active this July anyway. I do hope they stick with Connolly though, along with Bear Bay, they were my two favorite underdogs in the system, and with Bay gone, I'd like to at least have one of the two still around.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Should have added, out of Kelton, Dubois, Rohlicek, Koronka and Vazquez, I'd be shocked if more than one of those are still here and/or will be protected come this winter. That's four new spots right there. Plus, Borowski, Remlinger and hopefully, finally, Macias will be gone next year. So there will be spots open.

 

Nic Jackson isn't still on the 40-man, is he?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

If Brownlie doesn't show something good this year, the Cubs should move him in a mid-season trade, since Hendry is likely to be active this July anyway.

 

I agree. Amongst that list of players, I hope Hendry trades a few of the prospects who aren't at the Dope-Pie-Petrick level to alleviate some of the glut and address some of the weaknesses of the big league squad. It would be a wisest move.

[biittner77]

Tim,

 

You forgot Andy Sisco.

 

And in the interest of saving time:

 

Don Kessinger was Good will say that Sisco is gone for good.

 

Vance will then respond that he could still come back.

 

Just thought I'd save some bandwidth. :lol:

[Tim]

Should have added, out of Kelton, Dubois, Rohlicek, Koronka and Vazquez, I'd be shocked if more than one of those are still here and/or will be protected come this winter. That's four new spots right there. Plus, Borowski, Remlinger and hopefully, finally, Macias will be gone next year. So there will be spots open.

 

Nic Jackson isn't still on the 40-man, is he?

Nic is off the 40 man already. So is Kelton now. Carlos Vazquez passed through waivers and was outrighed earlier in the spring.

[JohnCub1]

Craig- good points and I also think that Greenberg could make the team in addition to Cedeno, Ohman, etc. I am not worried about Pie, Dopirak, or Petrick. I think the Cubs will protect them no matter what they do this season. The guys I am worried about are Sean Marshall and Jon Connolly.

 

Connolly, mainly, because he is a favorite of mine, and I think he will have another outstanding year. I would be worried if he has a year like last year in AA that someone would take him. IMO, the Cubs will not be able to protect Connolly no matter what he does(unless he is unconscious like last year). There are too many high ceiling guys to protect.

 

Sean Marshall also may be in trouble. He is another of my favorite players, and with Petrick, Pie, Dopirak, Murton, Brownlie(I hope), and Greenberg(I think he'll definately be put on), there may be no room for Marshall. Plus if we get Sisco back, it complicates things further.

 

It should be an interesting offseason, I guess I'll just hope for all these guys to have great years to make the decisions tough. My prediction(even though it is WAY too early to have any idea): Dopirak, Pie, Petrick, Murton, Greenberg, Sisco if we get him back.

 

Please. There's no way the Cubs will expose Marshall, particularly after the Sisco situation this year. They'll protect him, even if it means dumping a utility player or bit reliever at the ML level.

 

I think the guys you absolutely must protect are Dope, Pie, Petrick and Marshall. Maybe Murton. Maybe Hill. Maybe maybe Brownlie and Connolly. Though that's now 8 names.

 

If Brownlie doesn't show something good this year, the Cubs should move him in a mid-season trade, since Hendry is likely to be active this July anyway. I do hope they stick with Connolly though, along with Bear Bay, they were my two favorite underdogs in the system, and with Bay gone, I'd like to at least have one of the two still around.

 

I hope you're right as Marshall is a favorite of mine. Like I said, it is way too early to be able to tell, but I think there are guys the Cubs will protect over him. It all depends, like Craig said, on how many youngsters make the team next year.

 

Also, I don't think the Cubs feel any differently about the Sisco situation because we still can get him back. I believe that Hendry knew he would be picked, but counted on him being returned, which he still believes will happen. I hope that Hendry protects Marshall because he has success at a higher level, but I don't think the Sisco situation will have any effect on Marshall.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Tim,

 

You forgot Andy Sisco.

 

And in the interest of saving time:

 

Don Kessinger was Good will say that Sisco is gone for good.

 

Vance will then respond that he could still come back.

 

Just thought I'd save some bandwidth. :lol:

 

OK, I have a question that came up when thinking about the above reply....lol

 

What is the status of a guy that was a Rule 5 pick away from you, and then gets returned, i.e., Hagerty? Do you have to go through all this again next year, and make the same kind of choice? I'm guessing the answer is yes, but I don't know.

[Outshined_One]

What is the status of a guy that was a Rule 5 pick away from you, and then gets returned, i.e., Hagerty? Do you have to go through all this again next year, and make the same kind of choice? I'm guessing the answer is yes, but I don't know.

 

Your guess is correct.

[RyCubsFan]

What is the status of a guy that was a Rule 5 pick away from you, and then gets returned, i.e., Hagerty? Do you have to go through all this again next year, and make the same kind of choice? I'm guessing the answer is yes, but I don't know.

 

Your guess is correct.

 

 

Ugh....I hate Rule V. I understand how it helps the players...blah blah...but it hurts the Cubbies...hmpfph!

[Shawon12]

I thought I was done worrying about the Rule 5 Draft for awhile and Tim pulls me right back in! :x

No fair. I was answering somebody else's question! :D

 

Thanks for answering this, Tim. That's just the pessimistic cub fan in me!

This list makes me think we will be moving some guys in trades througout the season.