Tigers (TBD) vs Cubs (Steele): 8/22/24, 1:20pm

[Bertz]

Just now, WhyCantWeWin said:

I disagree, his track record is short and full of red flags. But ill simmer down on the criticism for the time being

Is his track record shorter than the 3 weeks he's been a Cub?

[WhyCantWeWin]

Just now, Bertz said:

Is his track record shorter than the 3 weeks he's been a Cub?

His poor quality of contact and exit velocity and him outperforming his xwoba at a unsustainable rate has been the tale of his entire career. 

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

His poor quality of contact and exit velocity and him outperforming his xwoba at a unsustainable rate has been the tale of his entire career. 

So you think he was lucky for nearly 1600 plate appearances, and then suddenly the last 80 are the real him?

[WhyCantWeWin]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

So you think he was lucky for nearly 1600 plate appearances, and then suddenly the last 80 are the real him?

I think he wasnt going to outperform his xwoba  for an extended period of time 

[CubinNY]

Javy does not look like he's having a lot of fun

[JHBulls]

Detroit aren’t a real baseball team. 😂 

Edited August 22, 2024 by JHBulls

[Eeyore]

It's nice to see the opponent clowning for a change

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I think he wasnt going to outperform his xwoba  for an extended period of time 

Fly balls and Line Drives to the pull side this year have a .677 xwOBA and a .793 actual wOBA.  Even if you exclude barrels, it's .481 and .547

Among qualified hitters this year, Isaac is 2nd in pull rate and 2nd lowest in groundball rate.  I don't have pulled fly ball rate, that would require a little excel work, but he's probably #1 and certainly top 5.

He was more or less designed in a lab to be an xwOBA outlier.  Now there's some park specific benefits he enjoyed that will go out the window now in Wrigley, so his production will take a bit of a haircut, but we're still talking something in the 110-120 range as the expectation.

[CubinNY]

PCA is gonna be a monster. 

[Eeyore]

[CubinNY]

Amaya loafing it a little as he thought he had that one

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I think he wasnt going to outperform his xwoba  for an extended period of time 

Players with his profile(low K, high launch angle/high FB) tend to do that.  Think of this simplified example: if I hit 4 scalding line drives, 5 weak hit outs, and 1 K, I will have a lower xwOBA  than someone who hits 4 scalding line drives, 3 weak hit outs, and 3 Ks.  But in an outcomes sense we want the first set of PA, especially if that's repeatable, and players with Low K high FB tend to be really talented hitters with good barrel control.

But even if that's not convincing it isn't a nightmare scenario! Paredes at his xwOBA is an above average hitter and 3B.

[JHBulls]

Amaya being on a tear at the plate for a while now is one of the big stories of the year. 

[profisme]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Amaya loafing it a little as he thought he had that one

He crushed that ball. He is also very slow on a good day. 

[UMFan83]

Every time PCA hits a ball to the wall and doesn't end up on 3rd base, I feel a little disappointed even if its not fair.

[Bertz]

Javy's only hit of the series coming against slider specialist Ethan Roberts is kind of hilarious to me.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Really interested in what the Cubs do at catcher now this offseason.  2 months ago it was a no brainer that they needed to make a big investment in a starting catcher.  Maybe they still go that route but Amaya is making it harder for them.

Theyll stick with Amaya but if there's one available, they need to grab a  veteran backup that can take over if Amaya goes south.

I believe they have a couple good catching prospects, not sure off hand how far away they are now.

[UMFan83]

27 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I think he wasnt going to outperform his xwoba  for an extended period of time 

Wouldn't be the first, or second, or even third player to do that.  I'm not saying Paredes is in the same class of hitters as Arenado or Jose Ramirez but those are 2 guys off the top of my head that regularly ourperform their wxoba

[Outshined_One]

1 minute ago, chibears55 said:

Theyll stick with Amaya but if there's one available, they need to grab a  veteran backup that can take over if Amaya goes south.

I believe they have a couple good catching prospects, not sure off hand how far away they are now.

Moises Ballesteros is the best and closest catching prospect they have, but he's a catcher in much the same way Schwarber was a catcher.

[CubinNY]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Javy's only hit of the series coming against slider specialist Ethan Roberts is kind of hilarious to me.

that's baseball in a nutshell

[chibears55]

47 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Players have slumps man. As we have seen multiple times this year, shrieking about every bad plate appearance when players have a significant track records otherwise just ends up making you look foolish.

He's been in a 3 month slump though...

What exactly is Paredes track record ?

[CubinNY]

They put together a good team late.

[UMFan83]

8 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

They put together a good team late.

I really dont understand what happened this season.  They were always a decent team, they just stopped hitting for 2.5 months and the bullpen blew a bunch more games than the average team does.  Very frustrating that such a thin line seemingly separated this team from actually being enjoyable and exciting.  But then again, this team was seemingly built in a way where the margin for error wasn't big, thus always making this a potential outcome.

[chibears55]

Dodgers DFA Heyward 

[UMFan83]

21 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

He's been in a 3 month slump though...

What exactly is Paredes track record ?

You can look it up.  Since 2022 (1457 PA)

9.2 fWAR (11th among 3B)

.341 wOBA (9th)

125 wRC+ (8th)

.216 ISO (7th)

11% BB% (4th)

17.4% K rate (9th lowest among qualified 3B)

That includes this 3 month slump.

Edited August 22, 2024 by UMFan83