Tigers (TBD) vs Cubs (Steele): 8/22/24, 1:20pm

[chibears55]

10 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

You can look it up.  Since 2022 (1457 PA)

9.2 fWAR (11th among 3B)

.341 wOBA (9th)

125 wRC+ (8th)

.216 ISO (7th)

11% BB% (4th)

17.4% K rate (9th lowest among qualified 3B)

That includes this 3 month slump.

I hope he doesn't but if he continues to not hit the rest of year are we still gonna call it a slump ?

In all honestly we have no idea right now what to fully expect out of Paredes.

In 2022, in the minimal PT he had he showed he had good power but struggled to hit overall.

In 2023, in his first full season, he played very good and with HR power.

In 2024, 2nd full season, he started out strong the first 2 months but has really tailed off the last 3 months.

Hopefully he finishes strong.

What to expect in 2025 is unknown off his first 2 full seasons because he went from being really good to being pretty bad.

Hopefully we'll see him being more of the 2023 hitter in 2025 and we can just say 2024 was just a down season for him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The current WC3 pace is for 86 wins.  If the Cubs finished the season at the pace they've played since the trade deadline passed, they'd finish with...86 wins.

[mul21]

If they can go 7-2 or better in the next 9 against the Marlins, Pirates, and Nationals, I'll believe they have a chance.  That would put them at 70-67 with 25 games to go and at that point 16-9 isn't an unfathomable thought to finish the year.

[Soul]

I’m skeptical but yeah, if they put up a great record in the next 3 series I might start hoping.

[Bertz]

I think if we weren't getting the teeth of the Pirates rotation I'd be letting myself dream a little, but because of the way schedules fall the Pirates series are pretty tough. 

The Cubs have 11 series left

- 4 look easy: @ Marlins, Home+Away vs. Nats, vs. Oakland

- 3 look kind of tough: @ Rockies, @ Phillies (they will have their division locked up by then), vs. Reds

- 2 look tough: Home+Away against the Pirates, but with their top 3 starters going both series

- 2 look scary: vs. Yankees and @ Dodgers

I'm feeling like they can end over .500 but 86-88 wins feels unreasonable.

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think if we weren't getting the teeth of the Pirates rotation I'd be letting myself dream a little, but because of the way schedules fall the Pirates series are pretty tough. 

The Cubs have 11 series left

- 4 look easy: @ Marlins, Home+Away vs. Nats, vs. Oakland

- 3 look kind of tough: @ Rockies, @ Phillies (they will have their division locked up by then), vs. Reds

- 2 look tough: Home+Away against the Pirates, but with their top 3 starters going both series

- 2 look scary: vs. Yankees and @ Dodgers

I'm feeling like they can end over .500 but 86-88 wins feels unreasonable.

Agreed. Feels like another 82-84 win season.

[WhyCantWeWin]

21 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Players with his profile(low K, high launch angle/high FB) tend to do that.  Think of this simplified example: if I hit 4 scalding line drives, 5 weak hit outs, and 1 K, I will have a lower xwOBA  than someone who hits 4 scalding line drives, 3 weak hit outs, and 3 Ks.  But in an outcomes sense we want the first set of PA, especially if that's repeatable, and players with Low K high FB tend to be really talented hitters with good barrel control.

But even if that's not convincing it isn't a nightmare scenario! Paredes at his xwOBA is an above average hitter and 3B.

 

21 hours ago, Bertz said:

Fly balls and Line Drives to the pull side this year have a .677 xwOBA and a .793 actual wOBA.  Even if you exclude barrels, it's .481 and .547

Among qualified hitters this year, Isaac is 2nd in pull rate and 2nd lowest in groundball rate.  I don't have pulled fly ball rate, that would require a little excel work, but he's probably #1 and certainly top 5.

He was more or less designed in a lab to be an xwOBA outlier.  Now there's some park specific benefits he enjoyed that will go out the window now in Wrigley, so his production will take a bit of a haircut, but we're still talking something in the 110-120 range as the expectation.

Appreciate the context, im still learning these new metrics