Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-19-24

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa at Memphis, 7:05 pm
Tennessee vs. Rocket City, 6:00 pm
South Bend vs. Quad Cities, 6:05 pm
Myrtle Beach at Columbia, 6:05 pm
ACL Cubs at ACL Giants, 8:00 pm
DSL Cubs Blue vs. DSL Tampa Bay, 10:00 am
DSL Cubs Red at DSL Arizona Red, 10:00 am

Probable Starters:

Iowa: RHP Riley Thompson
Tennessee: LHP Alex Troop (32 IP, 3.94 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 34 K, 8 BB)
South Bend: RHP Erian Rodríguez (18 IP, 5.50 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 15 K, 7 BB)
Myrtle Beach: RHP Luis Rujano (30.1 IP, 5.58 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 33 K, 18 BB)

[Bertz]

Horsefeathers yes!

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Anderson Suriel to Myrtle Beach too

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Franklin, Triantos and Shaw are still in Tennessee.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Franklin, Triantos and Shaw are still in Tennessee.

This is disappointing

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Connor Noland to Iowa, Grant Kipp to South Bend.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Shaw with a double too. He’s a triple shy of the cycle.

EDIT: Here’s the video:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Adbert Alzolay struck out the side in a rehab start for the ACL Cubs.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

José Escobar has 2 home runs in 2 innings in the ACL.

[JD94]

Mo Baller needs to be in the majors. I don’t care. The bat is legit and can help us right now. Can provide a spark to this team before it’s too late. I have zero clue how bad he is defensively, but it can’t be that much worse than when Amaya is out there. He can primarily DH. Whatever. Counsell will figure that part out. 

[Bertz]

I don't really understand Shaw/Triantos/Franklin still being at Tenn.  Franklin maybe you could say because you wanted to wait for the inevitable Canario trade in the next two weeks?

But like all three guys appear to have conquered AA, and for Triantos/Shaw the Futures game felt like a natural book-end.  And this is not exactly a tough lineup, particularly infield, to crack your way into currently

 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I don't really understand Shaw/Triantos/Franklin still being at Tenn.  Franklin maybe you could say because you wanted to wait for the inevitable Canario trade in the next two weeks?

But like all three guys appear to have conquered AA, and for Triantos/Shaw the Futures game felt like a natural book-end.  And this is not exactly a tough lineup, particularly infield, to crack your way into currently

 

I wonder if the team is waiting to do a mass move of guys once the draft gets under contract and is ready to take spots. With a heavy lack of prep players, and a lot of college hitters who (in theory) could start in SB, waiting a short amount of time and then clearing those spots may make sense. 

[gflore34]

14 hours ago, JD94 said:

Mo Baller needs to be in the majors. I don’t care. The bat is legit and can help us right now. Can provide a spark to this team before it’s too late. I have zero clue how bad he is defensively, but it can’t be that much worse than when Amaya is out there. He can primarily DH. Whatever. Counsell will figure that part out. 

I wonder if he has a legitimate chance at the next level?  Do his peripherals suggest he has a shot?  I know Mervis' and Canario' peripherals imply they both have little to no chance at being an effective major league ballpalyer, hopefully, it's different for Ballesteros.

[Bertz]

21 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I wonder if he has a legitimate chance at the next level?  Do his peripherals suggest he has a shot?  I know Mervis' and Canario' peripherals imply they both have little to no chance at being an effective major league ballpalyer, hopefully, it's different for Ballesteros.

His peripherals aren't very good honestly, so I'd push back on him being major league ready.  Now given that he's 20 years old and he's only been at the level for a month there's not much reason to be deterred long term, but the odds he could come up and legitimately help the team in the next month or two seem pretty long.

[JD94]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

His peripherals aren't very good honestly, so I'd push back on him being major league ready.  Now given that he's 20 years old and he's only been at the level for a month there's not much reason to be deterred long term, but the odds he could come up and legitimately help the team in the next month or two seem pretty long.

Which of his underlying numbers concern you?

[Bertz]

48 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Which of his underlying numbers concern you?

Honestly there's a good bit?  Again at 20 these are all likely to improve, but right now he is:

- Chasing pitches at a higher than MLB average rate (33.3% for Moises, 28.3% for the league)

- Making less contact in the zone than the league (82.1% vs. 85.3%)

- Hitting the ball hard (95 MPH+) less often (34.9% vs. 38.8%)

He does on the positive side hit fewer balls on the ground (39.7% vs 42.5%) and with it comes an above average barrel rate (9.5% vs. 7.9%).  But overall I'm not sure he's hitting that much better at Iowa than PCA did and we've seen how steep of an adjustment curve he's facing.

[JD94]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Honestly there's a good bit?  Again at 20 these are all likely to improve, but right now he is:

- Chasing pitches at a higher than MLB average rate (33.3% for Moises, 28.3% for the league)

- Making less contact in the zone than the league (82.1% vs. 85.3%)

- Hitting the ball hard (95 MPH+) less often (34.9% vs. 38.8%)

He does on the positive side hit fewer balls on the ground (39.7% vs 42.5%) and with it comes an above average barrel rate (9.5% vs. 7.9%).  But overall I'm not sure he's hitting that much better at Iowa than PCA did and we've seen how steep of an adjustment curve he's facing.

Yeah it’s not all perfect as you listed out. He’s still sitting at a pretty solid 114 wRC+. His larger sample at AA was 151. Regardless, he’s still producing even though some of his underlying numbers aren’t perfect, especially as he gets more comfortable in AAA. Sometimes players just out produce their peripherals and expected stats. Hendricks did it for years. It’s been the opposite with Morel all year. His underlying numbers have been good despite nothing to show for it. I think there’s a balance and in this analytical day and age we are in, it’s easy to get too caught up in some of these numbers. 
 

I mean I’m a young guy. I’m 29. Thanks to 1908, I learned enough about analytics to be conversant (far from an expert), but I also try to find the balance personally. At the end of the day, your production is all that matters. Mo is producing at every level and this team could use a jolt in the lineup. I mean I guess if nobody cares whether we buy or sell or make the playoffs or don’t make the playoffs, then it doesn’t matter. I, for one, am sick of selling. Sick of losing. I’m about ready to see some of these guys come up and impact the big league club. I’m not trying to rush guys that aren’t ready, but Moises is built different than a lot of prospects. He has an advanced beyond his years approach. If he comes up and struggles, then okay. It’s not going to kill his development. 
 

Im not meaning this to be argumentative with you at all. Just posting my standpoint on it. If he weren’t producing, then I would be more worried about some of the underlying numbers being slightly less ideal than preferred. 

[Bertz]

42 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Yeah it’s not all perfect as you listed out. He’s still sitting at a pretty solid 114 wRC+. His larger sample at AA was 151. Regardless, he’s still producing even though some of his underlying numbers aren’t perfect, especially as he gets more comfortable in AAA. Sometimes players just out produce their peripherals and expected stats. Hendricks did it for years. It’s been the opposite with Morel all year. His underlying numbers have been good despite nothing to show for it. I think there’s a balance and in this analytical day and age we are in, it’s easy to get too caught up in some of these numbers. 
 

I mean I’m a young guy. I’m 29. Thanks to 1908, I learned enough about analytics to be conversant (far from an expert), but I also try to find the balance personally. At the end of the day, your production is all that matters. Mo is producing at every level and this team could use a jolt in the lineup. I mean I guess if nobody cares whether we buy or sell or make the playoffs or don’t make the playoffs, then it doesn’t matter. I, for one, am sick of selling. Sick of losing. I’m about ready to see some of these guys come up and impact the big league club. I’m not trying to rush guys that aren’t ready, but Moises is built different than a lot of prospects. He has an advanced beyond his years approach. If he comes up and struggles, then okay. It’s not going to kill his development. 
 

Im not meaning this to be argumentative with you at all. Just posting my standpoint on it. If he weren’t producing, then I would be more worried about some of the underlying numbers being slightly less ideal than preferred. 

The smaller the sample the more you should assume that normal gravity is going to apply.  Moises demolished AA, but he's been more good than great at AAA.  And it's also only been 19 games at Iowa so it's not like he's running out ofthings to learn.

There's no need to be impatient, he'll likely be an MLB regular as a 21 year old early next year.  He's tracking great, he's just pretty clearly not ready to step in and excel right now.

[CubinNY]

We want Mo to be a complete player. He’s not really a 1st baseman. He’s going to need a position and the only way is to learn through repetition and asses in a low steaks environment. It might be another year. I’d love to see him stay state side this offseason with a nutritionist and catching guru. 

The Cubs really messed up Morel trying to find him a spot when his bat was ready. 

 

[JD94]

59 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

We want Mo to be a complete player. He’s not really a 1st baseman. He’s going to need a position and the only way is to learn through repetition and asses in a low steaks environment. It might be another year. I’d love to see him stay state side this offseason with a nutritionist and catching guru. 

The Cubs really messed up Morel trying to find him a spot when his bat was ready. 

 

I don’t think Morel is a good comparison. Morel could have stayed in the minors and played 3b primarily for another 500 games and I still don’t think he’d be adequate there. The only position he’s shown he can play average is 2b and that’s just not an option unless you move Hoerner to 3b. It’s not like Morel is providing a ton with the bat either. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, JD94 said:

I don’t think Morel is a good comparison. Morel could have stayed in the minors and played 3b primarily for another 500 games and I still don’t think he’d be adequate there. The only position he’s shown he can play average is 2b and that’s just not an option unless you move Hoerner to 3b. It’s not like Morel is providing a ton with the bat either. 

It’s not a direct comparison. It’s indicative of mismanagement. 
 

They need to let Mo learn to be a catcher or not. 

[JD94]

Just now, CubinNY said:

It’s not a direct comparison. It’s indicative of mismanagement. 
 

They need to let Mo learn to be a catcher or not. 

I’m sorry. I just assumed it was a comparison since he was the player you mentioned as an example of the bat being ready but the glove wasn’t. I assumed wrong. 
 

That’s fine on Mo. I’m not sure he will ever be an above average catcher no matter how many games he catches in AAA. I think he’s a primary DH who catches 2 times a week. All I know is he’s producing with the bat already, at every level, even if some of the underlying stats aren’t EXACTLY perfect. He has an advanced approach, not just for his age, but in general. I’m not asking for him to come up and catch 5-6 games a week. I’m asking him to come up and hit and catch occasionally.

If the Cubs decide to sell, then it doesn’t really matter how much he catches. There’s 8 games left until the deadline. Feels like it’s too late regardless. I’m just looking for internal options to avoid selling again. You know, to try and make the horsefeathers playoffs. Just do something to show you have a pulse and are trying something. But it’s whatever. Let’s just accept another year of failure and talk about the great prospects we will get for Hector Neris and accept not signing Soto this offseason and do it all over again next year. I just want to see an ounce of urgency from this FO. If asking for a guy who is hitting at every level of the minors to come DH to provide a spark before we have to decide if we are going for it or not is too much, then okay. Sorry.