Phillies (Sanchez) vs Cubs (Taillon): 7/4/24, 1:20pm

[Derwood]

Are we watching Tom's mental breakdown in real time?

[Rcal10]

35 minutes ago, KCCub said:

They’re not though. Flaherty is going into his age 29 season, Taillon age 33 season. Flaherty has a 33% K% this season vs Taillon’s 18.5%. If you want to hold Flaherty’s injury ridden seasons against him, that’s fine I won’t argue against that. But a healthy Flaherty is in a completely different tier than Taillon plus being 4 years younger. Flaherty just misses more bats, which I think will be extremely valuable next season.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jack-flaherty-656427?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

If Flaherty is so much better than Taillon his contract will be so much more too. I will give you he is better. But I don’t put him with Burnes. I just don’t see dealing Taillon, where it basically amounts to a salary dump with a small chance the prospect you get for him might end up a fringe player to then add $5M to $7M more a year to sign Flaherty, and pay him longer. 
IMO in order of need next year it is a top bat(Soto) via free agency. Then use minor league talent and maybe a major league player or two (Morel, Wicks, Assad) to add another bat (Guerrero) and maybe a young controlled starting pitcher. If you don’t get the pitcher then don’t trade either Wicks or Assad. Sign a catcher and a decent pen arm. If they got Guerrero maybe Busch moves to 3rd. There are a lot of ways they can go. This is just one example. But they have to do what they have failed to do since Jed took over. Be aggressive! 

[Bertz]

I think if you can move Taillon’s whole salary you move him and if you can't you don't.  

I think Taillon’s probably a smidge above average starter right now, and you'd expect him south of average the last two of his deal.  So I think you need a team that A) has been bitten by the injury bug and B) has enough going on in other facets that they mostly just want a SP who won't sink them.  

The Orioles would be a great fit if they weren't so unbelievably cheap.  Maybe their austerity the last few years is passed with ownership changing over? but that should probably be a believe it when you see it thing.

Dodgers maybe?  Every SP of theirs except for Stone and Glasnow has been bad and/or hurt this year, and Glasnow's obviously got some history with the IL.  Taillon being a boring innings eater next year as they transition Ohtani back to the rotation is more feature than bug.  They are also less than 12 months removed from having no choice but to pitch Lance Lynn in an elimination game so understand floor raising moves

Astros?  Their rotation has also seen the IL extensively this year, and they definitely appear to be in "last hurrah" mode with this core over the next 1.5 seasons so $17M Taillon in '26 might be tomorrow's problem.

 

[PeanutPunch33]

Counsell finally finds out that if you keep PCA and Amaya on the bench all game long, you may actually have a chance to win 

[KCCub]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If Flaherty is so much better than Taillon his contract will be so much more too. I will give you he is better. But I don’t put him with Burnes. I just don’t see dealing Taillon, where it basically amounts to a salary dump with a small chance the prospect you get for him might end up a fringe player to then add $5M to $7M more a year to sign Flaherty, and pay him longer. 
IMO in order of need next year it is a top bat(Soto) via free agency. Then use minor league talent and maybe a major league player or two (Morel, Wicks, Assad) to add another bat (Guerrero) and maybe a young controlled starting pitcher. If you don’t get the pitcher then don’t trade either Wicks or Assad. Sign a catcher and a decent pen arm. If they got Guerrero maybe Busch moves to 3rd. There are a lot of ways they can go. This is just one example. But they have to do what they have failed to do since Jed took over. Be aggressive! 

I do want to point out that you’re really cherry picking my original post. In no way was it a “You’ve got to move Taillon and go all in on Flaherty” post. Squally asked for examples and if they were to go the FA route, Flaherty was an example. I would much rather use the cash you save by moving Taillon/Belli towards Soto. Then make a trade for a cost controlled SP and use the left over cash/prospect capital to plug catcher/3b/bp. 

[cl smooth]

9 hours ago, cl smooth said:

I’ll be in attendance this afternoon. Please horsefeathers WIN A GODDAMN GAME!

I was the catalyst for today’s offensive outburst.

You are all welcome!

[Geographyhater8888]

12 hours ago, CubinNY said:

If they trade Jamo they’re going to have to eat some of his salary to get anything of value. So it’s not going to save that much.

Happ has a NTC. We are looking at Bellinger, Wisdom, Bote, and bullpen flotsam and jetsam. Maybe Nico.  

They are the worst put together $220M team money can buy. 

That’s the thing. Jamo, Happ, Suzuki, Cody, forget Swansons immovable contract are clogging the payroll. All these guys are a solid deadline addition on a World Series contender and nothing more.

Imagine the 04 Red Sox minus Big papi and Manny. Mueller Millar Nixon and Damon are nice complimentary players. Jed trying to build around this caliber of players is a one of a kind team building experiment.

 

[Derwood]

Taillon is a perfectly cromulant pitcher on a staff with Steele/Shota/Assad

[KCCub]

2 hours ago, Derwood said:

Taillon is a perfectly cromulant pitcher on a staff with Steele/Shota/Assad

Imagine if I had a time machine and could talk to the Derwood from last year (below) and let him know that in 2024 Taillon will have one of his lowest K% (down 2.2% from last year) & SwStr% (Also lower than last year) of his career and that there's a chance a team might be willing to trade for his full contract. The outlier this year is his HR/FB ratio is way down this year (Hmm dead ball a factor anyone??) at 8.8% (13.4% last year, 12.1% career). SIERA of 4.21. If a team is willing to take on his full contract, you absolutely do it. 

Things are never as bad as they seem and things are never as good as they seem. If Taillon is on the club next year, the data suggests there's a good chance we see the below Derwood return. 

"Stealing a game with Taillon on the mound feels like three wins"
"Taillon is Anthony Young bad"
"Taillon is such a boat anchor"
"What a disaster this Taillon signing was"
"Taillon SUUUUUUUCKS"
"Taillon was a great signing. Bang up job, there"

[Derwood]

42 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Imagine if I had a time machine and could talk to the Derwood from last year (below) and let him know that in 2024 Taillon will have one of his lowest K% (down 2.2% from last year) & SwStr% (Also lower than last year) of his career and that there's a chance a team might be willing to trade for his full contract. The outlier this year is his HR/FB ratio is way down this year (Hmm dead ball a factor anyone??) at 8.8% (13.4% last year, 12.1% career). SIERA of 4.21. If a team is willing to take on his full contract, you absolutely do it. 

Things are never as bad as they seem and things are never as good as they seem. If Taillon is on the club next year, the data suggests there's a good chance we see the below Derwood return. 

"Stealing a game with Taillon on the mound feels like three wins"
"Taillon is Anthony Young bad"
"Taillon is such a boat anchor"
"What a disaster this Taillon signing was"
"Taillon SUUUUUUUCKS"
"Taillon was a great signing. Bang up job, there"

 

Taillon is the John Lackey of the pitching staff. No one is asking him to be Lester or Arrieta