PCA

[thawv]

With the Cubs now officially gaining that extra year, is there any reason not to get PCA up against the Reds?  As of tomorrow, he eligible for a recall.   He's got nothing to prove in AAA, and this big league team needs help.  There won't be any playing time issues either, as there's several options between the corner OF spots, 1B, 3B, and DH to mix and match without costing PCA any playing time. 

[Bertz]

I like PCA, I would not have a problem with him still being up, but what about this screams "nothing left to learn at AAA"

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One of these things should probably happen before PCA comes back up again, in rough order of likelihood

• One of the OFs goes on the IL
• PCA sustains his post-demotion hot streak to the point where he'll get more development from scattered MLB at bats than AAA ones.  This isn't something that would happen in June.
• Tauchman starts tanking with the bat, given the equity he's built up this should be more than 'oh he's been bad for 10 days' type of thing that typically gets people worked up

[CubinNY]

The drop off from MLB to AAA has never been more steep. 

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

One of these things should probably happen before PCA comes back up again, in rough order of likelihood

• One of the OFs goes on the IL
• PCA sustains his post-demotion hot streak to the point where he'll get more development from scattered MLB at bats than AAA ones.  This isn't something that would happen in June.
• Tauchman starts tanking with the bat, given the equity he's built up this should be more than 'oh he's been bad for 10 days' type of thing that typically gets people worked up

a little bit of splitting hairs here, but Busch to the IL would also probably qualify

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

a little bit of splitting hairs here, but Busch to the IL would also probably qualify

Sure, that's a good shout.  I originally had something about Busch tanking *really* hard but removed it because at this point he's shown enough that he's going to get a pretty long leash, especially in comparison to the offensive expectations we'd have for PCA.

[Stratos]

Our hitting sucks right now and he's not a good hitter.  I think he needs most of the year in AAA ideally.  They aren't going to bench e.g. Happ or Busch everyday for PCA.

His hitting numbers have always been inflated because of his speed and masks a bunch of his deficits at the plate.  Beating out grounders inflates his AVG, OBP, and SLG.  Taking extra bases inflates the SLG.  He needs a lot of work with the bat and will probably always be below average at the plate with a chance to be average or somewhat above average overall offensively because of the speed.

[Rcal10]

I’m  it opposed to bringing PCA. But the problem is they would have to work up some sort of a playing time schedule that includes him with the other 4 outfielders and Busch to fill the 3 outfield spots, DH and first base. That would leave the Cubs with one guy as the back up middle infielder. And every day one of the Cubs better hitters would have to sit. It does strengthen the bench, however. 

[Rcal10]

25 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Our hitting sucks right now and he's not a good hitter.  I think he needs most of the year in AAA ideally.  They aren't going to bench e.g. Happ or Busch everyday for PCA.

His hitting numbers have always been inflated because of his speed and masks a bunch of his deficits at the plate.  Beating out grounders inflates his AVG, OBP, and SLG.  Taking extra bases inflates the SLG.  He needs a lot of work with the bat and will probably always be below average at the plate with a chance to be average or somewhat above average overall offensively because of the speed.

I get your point. PCA can still use a little work at AAA. However this idea of his hitting numbers are inflated as is his slugging because he can run is irrelevant. An infield hit is a hit. Stretching a single into a double because he can run is still a double. 

[thawv]

Since PCA is not projected to be a big stick, there's no reason to wait or expect him to be a big stick.  He has so much more value than hitting.  If he ends up hitting .260 with 15 Hr's he's a 6 win player.   Hell, over 600 PA's he was projected to have a 4.8 fWAR this season.  That would lead the team by far.  What he doesn't bring to the table with his stick, he makes up for in every asspect of the game.   And if we're being honest, none of these guys are hitting.  

[Rcal10]

46 minutes ago, thawv said:

Since PCA is not projected to be a big stick, there's no reason to wait or expect him to be a big stick.  He has so much more value than hitting.  If he ends up hitting .260 with 15 Hr's he's a 6 win player.   Hell, over 600 PA's he was projected to have a 4.8 fWAR this season.  That would lead the team by far.  What he doesn't bring to the table with his stick, he makes up for in every asspect of the game.   And if we're being honest, none of these guys are hitting.  

But who are you sitting? Someone with a decent track record of hitting? That only makes a bad offense, most likely worse.

[Tryptamine]

33 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But who are you sitting? Someone with a decent track record of hitting? That only makes a bad offense, most likely worse.

Value is value at this point. I'd rather the guy who can't hit and provides value elsewhere than the guy who isn't hitting and provides much less value elsewhere. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

If he ends up hitting .260 with 15 Hr's he's a 6 win player.

If he ends up hitting .260, he'll be the best hitter in the Cubs lineup.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

Since PCA is not projected to be a big stick, there's no reason to wait or expect him to be a big stick.  He has so much more value than hitting.  If he ends up hitting .260 with 15 Hr's he's a 6 win player.   Hell, over 600 PA's he was projected to have a 4.8 fWAR this season.  That would lead the team by far.  What he doesn't bring to the table with his stick, he makes up for in every asspect of the game.   And if we're being honest, none of these guys are hitting.  

Just because someone isn't expected to be Yordan Alvarez with the bat does not mean all development is done. PCA showed incredibly horrible swing decisions in Triple-A prior to being called up. Now I think that a lot of that was mental; upon getting his first MLB hit the contact rate was much better. But there's still development to be done. 

PA'S development is more important than him being a defensive replacement right now and until the OF situation changes, that's likely the role he'd play. As we get further into the season speed/glove and maximizing every spot (think August/September) will begin to crossover and be more important, but it's not even June right now. PCA getting significant playing time and developing is more important. Don't be impatient. 

[UMFan83]

54 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Value is value at this point. I'd rather the guy who can't hit and provides value elsewhere than the guy who isn't hitting and provides much less value elsewhere. 

That does make me wonder a little bit about WAR.  If you have a team of 5 win players, but 80% of their value is from defense, are you better off than a team of 4.5 win players with lets say 70% of their value from hitting?  Like right now we're seeing a Cubs team excel at run prevention (largely due to starting pitching but still), but we're still in a 3-9 stretch because we can't score any runs.  We'd likely see something similar with my first example...your defense can't prevent less than 0 runs, but a good offense can score lots of runs.

Basically is all WAR created equal?

Edited May 29, 2024 by UMFan83

[Transmogrified Tiger]

ZiPS ROS has PCA as the 4th best OF on the roster, barely edging out Tauchman who projects decidedly better with the bat.  PCA's defense and baserunning definitely help him belong on an MLB roster even if he's not raking, but with 4 good/productive OFs, the marginal benefit isn't worth it when PCA has more developing he can do at Iowa.

[sneakypower]

for one, the 5-win gold glove bonanza team would require bad pitching that surrenders constant dangerous contact all over the field for such huge defensive runs-added totals to be attained

the key difference here in the hypotheticals is the great hitting team is likely more situation-proof, the ball doesn't always get hit to you but you do come to bat about 4-5 times every game

this Cubs team (full-season pace below, pro-rated to playing time shares) really just hasn't been very good at much anything yet besides starting pitching; nobody currently pacing for 4 wins, and just 3 total playing above 2-win levels and presence of some black holes on the roster

Edited May 29, 2024 by sneakypower

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Value is value at this point. I'd rather the guy who can't hit and provides value elsewhere than the guy who isn't hitting and provides much less value elsewhere. 

But you are basing PCA’s value on very limited time in the majors. And you are also valuing the players he would replace based on them not playing well. Happ has averaged 3.7 WAR over the last 2 years. Bellinger was very good last year, and has won an MVP. He is a very good ballplayer. Suzuki had opts over 800 last year and before his injury was probably one of the top offensive players in baseball over his last 350 AB. There is no way of knowing PCA is more valuable than any of those guys if/when the numbers of all the players level off. Tauchman would probably be the only guy I could see PCA being better than over the course of the season. And he is also the only guy doing well right now. I think PCA will be a very good major league player. And if he does hit .250-.265 he very well could be a 6 WAR guy. And that is very valuable. But I don’t see them having to do that, nor do I think they should make that move now. Not at the expense of sitting someone who has a much more proven past of quality baseball. 

[Bertz]

24 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

That does make me wonder a little bit about WAR.  If you have a team of 5 win players, but 80% of their value is from defense, are you better off than a team of 4.5 win players with lets say 70% of their value from hitting?  Like right now we're seeing a Cubs team excel at run prevention (largely due to starting pitching but still), but we're still in a 3-9 stretch because we can't score any runs.  We'd likely see something similar with my first example...your defense can't prevent less than 0 runs, but a good offense can score lots of runs.

Basically is all WAR created equal?

I think runs are runs and in that sense WAR is WAR.  Where I do think there is some wiggle room is where there are synergies between groups. 

This year's Cubs are a great example.  I don't think it's a coincidence that the bullpen got its act together right around thr time the SPs started more regularly going 6 or more.  4.1 IP and 1 R isn't actually a good outing, especially in the middle of two weeks without an off day. 

I also think there are some synergies to be had on offense when you have no holes in a lineup.  Like last year's Braves (or the 2008 Cubs) where everyone collectively had a career year all at once.  I don't think that's entirely coincidence.

[thawv]

29 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

ZiPS ROS has PCA as the 4th best OF on the roster, barely edging out Tauchman who projects decidedly better with the bat.  PCA's defense and baserunning definitely help him belong on an MLB roster even if he's not raking, but with 4 good/productive OFs, the marginal benefit isn't worth it when PCA has more developing he can do at Iowa.

Four good productive OF's?  Who are these guys?  I'd take PCA over any of them right now.  Belli can play a corner OF, 1B, DH.

[thawv]

26 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

for one, the 5-win gold glove bonanza team would require bad pitching that surrenders constant dangerous contact all over the field for such huge defensive runs-added totals to be attained

the key difference here in the hypotheticals is the great hitting team is likely more situation-proof, the ball doesn't always get hit to you but you do come to bat about 4-5 times every game

this Cubs team (full-season pace below, pro-rated to playing time shares) really just hasn't been very good at much anything yet besides starting pitching; nobody currently pacing for 4 wins, and just 3 total playing above 2-win levels and presence of some black holes on the roster

If PCA has the same playing time opportunity that the guys ahead of him have here, He leads the team in WAR by far.  These are projections as a part time player.  Make him a full time player and it's a different story. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

Four good productive OF's?  Who are these guys?  I'd take PCA over any of them right now.  Belli can play a corner OF, 1B, DH.

Being annoyed at the players who haven't played well the last couple weeks doesn't mean that we should expect PCA to outperform any of them going forward.

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, thawv said:

If PCA has the same playing time opportunity that the guys ahead of him have here, He leads the team in WAR by far.  These are projections as a part time player.  Make him a full time player and it's a different story. 

Like a lot of your declarative statements this is not at all how things work.

[CubinNY]

48 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

 

Basically is all WAR created equal?

No. There are a lot of problems with WAR. 

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Being annoyed at the players who haven't played well the last couple weeks doesn't mean that we should expect PCA to outperform any of them going forward.

Exactly!!!!