Article: With Long Season Left, Craig Counsell Has Learned a Lot About His Pitching Staff

[Matthew Trueblood]

If I could distill the genius of Craig Counsell's managerial style into a single insight, it would be this: Though the season is long, each win--and only each win--shortens it a bit. Counsell's Chicago Cubs still have a long season left.

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Just as a prison bid only lasts two days, a baseball season only lasts 90. The problem is, you have to earn the right to cross off each of those 90 days. Every win draws a contending team more than 1% closer to its goal, but every loss is a day lost, without progress. A hot start is a wonderful blessing; it makes the rest of the season feel easy and slow. A poor first half, like the 2023 Cubs had, makes the final two months feel like finals week for an overwhelmed freshman, and it fries pretty much everyone.

The 2024 edition of the Cubs has a lot of season left before them. They're only 13 games into their 90-game journey, and that's a bit frustrating, because it's easy to point to days where they missed promising chances to make progress. Counsell, a master of chasing each win with a keen understanding of its value without losing sight of the fact that 90 of them are needed, has had a secondary remit during this first stage of the campaign, and he's doing it brilliantly. The manager, who is the leader of the season expedition and is tasked with setting its pace, direction, and strategies, has gained the most valuable resource he has in that job: information.

While not all the news is good, the Cubs have a lot of new insight into their team--especially their pitching staff. Entering the season, there was unavoidable and considerable uncertainty about the best ways to use a large number of arms in the organization. Counsell and company have resolved some of that uncertainty already, sometimes by being willing to learn the truth about a guy the hard way.

Let's quickly break down what they know.

Traditional Starters: Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon
Though Steele got hurt early and Taillon is just now returning from being hurt, the coaching staff and front office knew they would need to rely on each to give them 150-plus innings, before the team even arrived for spring training. It was impossible to be sure what Imanaga would be capable of, though, before seeing how he responded to the different ball in MLB, the elements at Wrigley Field in April, and the thump in American lineups. He's passed that test with flying colors. These three can and must be used as full-fledged starters, with the goal of pitching six innings or more every time they take the mound.

Twice Through the Order: Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Ben Brown
As I wrote two weeks ago, it caused Counsell obvious consternation to try to stretch Assad past 15 outs in the team's loss to open their series in San Diego. He was trying not to lose a day, but he also wanted to know whether he could steal an out or two in such situations by keeping Assad in games even when the expected performance was less than optimal.

Counsell seemed a bit more ok with trying to get an extra out from Assad Saturday against Miami, and had it not been for another Adbert Alzolay blowup, he'd have gotten away with that one. What he's learned now, though, is that even if Alzolay appears to be cruising, he can't be trusted to try the opposing lineup a third time. 

The same is true of Wicks, so far. His evolving pitch mix gives him upside, but there are growing pains happening right now. It's clear that those two are going to need to be removed after 18 batters (if not sooner) in all but blowout situations, for as long as either has a spot in the rotation. That's fine. Counsell can work with that. He just needed to give them each an audition or two to be sure of their capacity.

Brown is a wholly different story. Although the team has twice turned to him for full-length starts and sought to get innings from him (within the limits of his preparation during spring), they never envisioned having him pitching as a traditional starter for a sustained period in 2024. That he's shown the ability to turn over the lineup card and keep rolling is a delightful surprise, and a sustainable one. He's suddenly an arm you could picture giving the team 110 or so innings, and the gaps into which he can be plugged on this staff make that kind of bulk especially tantalizing.

Versatile Bullpen Arms and Once-Through Piggybacks: Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski
The limitations of Assad and Wicks (and the reality that the team will sometimes want to protect Steele, Taillon, and Imanaga by lifting them an inning earlier than absolutely necessary) mean that the Cubs will need relievers capable of multi-inning appearances and half-starts, wherein they face as many as nine batters in a game. Entering the season, we knew they had one such pitcher, in Smyly. Unfortunately, it's now clear that that's all Hendricks can be, although he'll probably be asked to do it on a scheduled basis from the front ends of games, for however long he remains on the active roster.

On the other hand, Wesneski has stepped forward and announced himself as more than playable in this type of role. His competition for the rotation in spring training always seemed doomed, and it was still an open question whether he would be a usable reliever against both left- and right-handed batters, in more than single-inning bursts. That's now a bit less in doubt, though as the third guy in line for those kinds of innings, he might be up and down a few more times this year.

High-Leverage Single-Inning Arms: Héctor Neris, Adbert Alzolay, Mark Leiter Jr., Yency Almonte
Yes, Alzolay still counts as a trusted high-leverage guy, although his role will have to be modified to reflect the reality of his home-run problem until he proves he's fixed it. Neris and Leiter look more likely to close games in the near future, though, and while the former has made a lot of fans nervous, he's the type of pitcher (long track record, varied repertoire, rubber arm) who only inspires confidence in a manager. Counsell has learned the texture of a Neris inning, and now knows how best to deploy him.

Leiter comes with a bit thinner a manual than Neris, but he and Counsell already seem to have developed trust. Ditto for Almonte, who needs to be used in a more limited way (on multiple fronts) than does Leiter but will dominate in the right matchups and situations. Counsell probably has quite a bit more confidence in this group than the fan base does, even if (as the responsible party when any of them fail) he will always look dyspeptic when talking about it and be quicker on the trigger to make changes than he would be with others.

Extras, to Be Used as Needed: Keegan Thompson, Luke Little, Daniel Palencia, José Cuas, Colten Brewer, Julio Teherán
Counsell already knows Teherán, after having him in his rotation with Milwaukee in 2023. The rest of these have been thrust upon him, and they're neither consistent nor excellent, but he's figured out where each one's strengths and weaknesses lie. Thompson, Little, and Palencia have upward mobility from this group, given the stuff the latter two have shown and the way the former has pitched since being called up from Iowa. For now, though, Counsell has found niches for each where they can help him, but can't hurt him.

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Similar things are happening on the positional side. Counsell has started to lean toward Miguel Amaya at catcher, and he's gotten a long look at Christopher Morel at third base. Injuries to Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ have helped him clarify his own thinking about the best hitters on the team. There's still much intel left to gather on both sides of the roster list, but Counsell already knows more about the team he's running than he did three and a half weeks ago.

Learning it all might have cost the team a game, but most of the missed opportunities to shorten the season have been the players' fault. Counsell has made a couple of necessary sacrifices, but he's also trying to stay ahead of the calendar, and so far, the team is doing that well. Given all the self-knowledge they've gained in the process, still having 77 days left in this season--rather than 74 or 75--is an acceptable outcome.

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[Derek_Lee_Truther]

Just goes to show everyone who said the cubs didn't need to sign another starting pitcher. Taillon being one of the three "trusted" starters right now is not a good look.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think this is a really useful framework for thinking about the pitching staff.  If I were to nitpick it I almost think there's a separate category in between the high leverage arms and the extras, in which I'd put Almonte and Keegan.  They seem clearly by performance and usage to be thought of higher than the extras, but they're never being used instead of the one inning leverage guys when they're available.  That's also useful because I think basically all of the extras can flow upwards to that level based on form(e.g. Little, Cuas, or Palencia go a week without walking the world) but wouldn't immediately be part of the late inning circle of trust if they did.

Otherwise, I'm consistently higher on Wesneski than most and I think he's got more in common with Brown than Smyly in terms of ability. But with Brown and Assad's success he hasn't gotten the opportunity so I can't say with certainty he's there in Counsell's eyes.

[squally1313]

I know the common refrain here is to write off Hendricks, but I'm wondering if there's a way to configure the bullpen to allow Hendricks to become a one time through the order guy and pair him with Brown or Horton as a way of keeping their innings limited. The issue with it being Brown is that it basically takes away your best option at a multi-inning fireman in the bullpen, and the issue with it being Horton is that he's probably just not ready yet. That multi inning role is mayyyybe Wesneski or Keegan, but that's leaning a lot on a small recent sample size over a longer track record of being bad. Assad is the guy in a different world where we can just go get a #3 starter, but in April that's not realistic. 

As I type it out, there's not really an easy answer. With Steele out I still think you just have to grit your way through it and try to keep the pen stocked for Hendricks days (made more difficult by Assad and Brown not being true starters, Shota being used to longer rest, Taillon still ramping up). But in a month, with Steele back, Taillon at full strength, a little more clarity on Assad/Brown (and Wes/Thompson), and expected progression from Horton, maybe you end up in a spot where you can go Steele, Shota, Taillon, Assad, and Hendricks/Horton, with Brown and maybe Wes/Thompson being able to give you multiple innings out of the pen and leaving Azlolay/Neris/Leiter/Smyly for Counsell to play matchups in the late innings. 

It sounds dumb to just kick the can down the road on this, but we're still dealing with small sample sizes and there's a good amount of clarity to come out of the next 4-6 weeks. And, for better or for worse, we've basically gotten through the first 20 games in a worse situation (without Taillon) than where we are now.

[mul21]

19 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I know the common refrain here is to write off Hendricks, but I'm wondering if there's a way to configure the bullpen to allow Hendricks to become a one time through the order guy and pair him with Brown or Horton as a way of keeping their innings limited.

My biggest issue with the whole Hendricks situation is that it just feels eerily similar to the way things were going before he was shut down in 2022.  Velocity was okay, but he was just missing his spots and not fine enough with the control to be effective.  Throw on top of it the fact that Taillon was out to start the year and Steele went down right away and I can see a guy like Kyle sucking it up and trying to grit through some kind of arm injury for the good of the team. 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, mul21 said:

My biggest issue with the whole Hendricks situation is that it just feels eerily similar to the way things were going before he was shut down in 2022.  Velocity was okay, but he was just missing his spots and not fine enough with the control to be effective.  Throw on top of it the fact that Taillon was out to start the year and Steele went down right away and I can see a guy like Kyle sucking it up and trying to grit through some kind of arm injury for the good of the team. 

It's possible, though we would have had like a week now to have a different conversation around that fact pattern if it was truly 'for the good of the team'. 

I went back to the end of 2022 and he was weirdly pretty productive his last three starts before being shut down (16 IP, 4 ER, 17/4 K/BB). But the stretch before it was probably the roughest stretch he's had up until this year (5 starts, 23 innings, 21 ER, 7 HRs), so I get your point. As a bright side though, it shows that he can break pretty hard for a month or so and not necessarily need to hang it up. 

[CubinNY]

49 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I know the common refrain here is to write off Hendricks, but I'm wondering if there's a way to configure the bullpen to allow Hendricks to become a one time through the order guy and pair him with Brown or Horton as a way of keeping their innings limited. The issue with it being Brown is that it basically takes away your best option at a multi-inning fireman in the bullpen, and the issue with it being Horton is that he's probably just not ready yet. That multi inning role is mayyyybe Wesneski or Keegan, but that's leaning a lot on a small recent sample size over a longer track record of being bad. Assad is the guy in a different world where we can just go get a #3 starter, but in April that's not realistic. 

As I type it out, there's not really an easy answer. With Steele out I still think you just have to grit your way through it and try to keep the pen stocked for Hendricks days (made more difficult by Assad and Brown not being true starters, Shota being used to longer rest, Taillon still ramping up). But in a month, with Steele back, Taillon at full strength, a little more clarity on Assad/Brown (and Wes/Thompson), and expected progression from Horton, maybe you end up in a spot where you can go Steele, Shota, Taillon, Assad, and Hendricks/Horton, with Brown and maybe Wes/Thompson being able to give you multiple innings out of the pen and leaving Azlolay/Neris/Leiter/Smyly for Counsell to play matchups in the late innings. 

It sounds dumb to just kick the can down the road on this, but we're still dealing with small sample sizes and there's a good amount of clarity to come out of the next 4-6 weeks. And, for better or for worse, we've basically gotten through the first 20 games in a worse situation (without Taillon) than where we are now.

He can't make it through an inning without giving up a run.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Almonte might turn out to be the Closer this year. Since his blow-up vs COL he's faced 27 batters, struck out 11 of them, walked 3, and allowed 1 hit. Holding batters to an 81.7 EV, he's been a stud. 

[Bertz]

This is a great framework.  Like TT I think there's value in delineating between the short relievers who are in the "circle of trust" vs. those you feel good about but maybe don't trust implicitly, but that's the biggest nit I'd pick.

I think framing it like this also shows you what the team needs and what we'd want Jed to buy at the deadline if it were coming up.  The team's SP have not been great, but the team do not need just a SP.  They've got plenty of guys you trust for 15-18 batters.  Jed should add someone who you're not horrified to let face a batter for a 3rd time, or not even bother.  On the RP side it's similar, you'd want someone at minimum in the Almonte zone, ideally an immediate circle of trust type.  There's not a lot of value in a lottery ticket or a warm body who can eat some low leverage innings.  We have those already.

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This is a great framework.  Like TT I think there's value in delineating between the short relievers who are in the "circle of trust" vs. those you feel good about but maybe don't trust implicitly, but that's the biggest nit I'd pick.

I think framing it like this also shows you what the team needs and what we'd want Jed to buy at the deadline if it were coming up.  The team's SP have not been great, but the team do not need just a SP.  They've got plenty of guys you trust for 15-18 batters.  Jed should add someone who you're not horrified to let face a batter for a 3rd time, or not even bother.  On the RP side it's similar, you'd want someone at minimum in the Almonte zone, ideally an immediate circle of trust type.  There's not a lot of value in a lottery ticket or a warm body who can eat some low leverage innings.  We have those already.

The issue in the second paragraph being that there are currently 7 teams per FG with a less than 20% chance of making the playoffs, and of the other 23 teams that would/should consider themselves in 2024 contention mode, about 22.5 of them would love a starter who can go three times through or an immediate 8th inning guy. Obviously someone like an Almonte can be had for lower level prospects, but not sure if we can simultaneously look at Shaw/PCA/Caissie/Alcantara/Horton as both imminently arriving reinforcements and also the only prospects with enough value to get the kind of players we're referring to. 

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The issue in the second paragraph being that there are currently 7 teams per FG with a less than 20% chance of making the playoffs, and of the other 23 teams that would/should consider themselves in 2024 contention mode, about 22.5 of them would love a starter who can go three times through or an immediate 8th inning guy. Obviously someone like an Almonte can be had for lower level prospects, but not sure if we can simultaneously look at Shaw/PCA/Caissie/Alcantara/Horton as both imminently arriving reinforcements and also the only prospects with enough value to get the kind of players we're referring to. 

I think on the SP piece I'd probably be fine with holding.  As far as guys we know will be available that have some legitimate juice there's a real chance it's just Jesus Luzardo.  And yeah if that's the case like AJ Preller will trade his entire AA team for him and I won't blame Jed for not matching.

On the RP side though, no excuse not to add someone of substance this year though.  Only the elitist of elite RPs would cost one of those big primo prospects, so Jed needs to pull someone down unless things really get locked down by internal options over the next two months.  Only so long you can hold out of that market because it's inefficient.

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Is it too hot a take to think Wesneski > Brown, has a higher ceiling in pretty much every role? The catches with Wesneski this year are the versatility and length out of the bullpen is so valuable and the mix still a work in progress.

Too hot of a take right now. Wesneski has severe limitations against LHH that Brown doesn't seem to have based on pitch mix as it stands *today*. Brown has a better breaking ball (his curveball) and would project better as a SP as a ceiling and a leverage reliever. Brown does have some command/control questions (not suggesting he's a finished product here) he needs to continue to answer, but has thus far done that in 2024 at the MLB level. Brown's command/control has made more progress than Wesneski in developing a new pitch, so while we can't say he won't, Brown's been making more progress.

I don't want anyone to read this like I don't like Wesneski, or even that Brown will be the better option long term, but I think if we're talking ceiling one has a clear advantage over the other. In a perfect world the Cubs get useful MLB contributions from both. But I think Wesneski looks more like a multi-inning reliever/RHH neutralizer where as Brown could legitimately be an 8th/9th inning guy if he doesn't end up as a mid-rotation SP. Perhaps Brown's command/control limits him from the rotation, or he can't ever settle in as a leverage guy, but Brown's ability to likely get both handed hitters out more consistently than Wesneski is going to always give him a leg up in potential. 

[Jason Ross]

32 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I consider health, command, control, and workload to factor into a player’s esp pitcher’s potential. Wesneski holds big advantages there. I’m suuuuuuuper leery of Brown’s injury history and control, not a great combo, and the workloads suggest a low volume starter if at all (I’m not optimistic). They’re basically having him chuck it up there down the middle. While the curve is unique enough and the fastball hard enough to do it now, I suspect it isn’t a sustainable plan of attack against MLers over more time 

Wesneski’s like a change up or splitter away from being a pretty well rounded arm, and his superior health and control have me thinking there’s much way more ability to adjust and keep developing than Brown. 

For 2024 regular season I don’t have them too far apart, but as they get deeper into the season, their rookie deals, and closer to FA suspect Wesneski separates

I'm not sure that's true. Here is where Brown throws his curveball vs his fastball: 

Brown is working upper third a ton with that fastball while using the curveball as a chase/whiff pitch. As Matt Trueblood explained the other say, based on the tilt and the way he tunnels, this is an effective two pitch combination. Nothing I see equates to chucking it down the middle. For example, compare Brown's fastball usage to Shota Imanaga, who as well, is working upper third and you'll see, there's a lot of overlap. You can say Shota's shown better command and consistency, and that's probably right, but I think the point I'm making is that Brown isn't just mid-midding his fastball and there's a similar plan of attack :

It's fair to wonder about injury with Brown, but I don't think that takes away from his ceiling. When we're talking ceiling we're talking generally the types of best-case outcomes. Ceiling wise, Brown doesn't blow out his arm again, or if he does, it's like 6-7 years in the making. That feels more like  a floor argument, or "realistic" argument, if we want to move even into that territory. Brown does have some concerning things that make you think his elbow is far more likely to blow out than Wesneski. 

And as much as we want to say Wesneski is a pitch away from something, he was a pitch away last year and there doesn't appear to be anything moving there. He didn't develop one last year, and so far on the year he's thrown 12 changeups on the season in all appearances (and just two in his MLB appearance) and zero split fingers. It doesn't look like that is coming anytime soon. If we're being real, Brown's made more progress seemingly with the command than Wesneski has with the third viable pitch to get lefties. 

Should also be noted: both struggle with command. Wesneski completely lost the fastball command at times last year in the zone and gave up big contact. His fastball gave up an xwOBA of .423 and an actual wOBA of .423 as well. So it's not like Wesneski is the command champion. His consistency was a knock on him dating back to his time in the Yankees system. 

As it stands, Brown's stuff advantage (fastball velocity, the way it plays off the curve and the curveball in general) gives him a ceiling advantage in almost any role. The math could change with a third pitch from Wesneski or a drop in command from Brown,. As well, I think it's super fair to be injury concious, I just wouldn't factor that into ceiling which was the wording of the original hot take. Lastly, none of this should read I don't like Hayden; I actually quite like Wesneski. Nor should it read that Wesneski can't have the better career. But if we're talking which player has the best ceiling...it has to be Brown. Even if it's more unlikely he reaches his ceiling for many of the things you pointed out.

[Jason Ross]

40 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

From the horse’s mouth, a Brown interview with Laurila at FGs:

A plan to chuck it down the middle is less about literally chucking it down the middle, probably not something he or most of the guys on this path could do anyway, and more about generally looking to be around the zone - trusting the pure velo of his stuff - without spotting. Fastball up and breaking ball/offspeed down is a combo as old as the two pitches, and north/south itself is in, so that things fall that way is not so much beyond the expectation of a realistic pitcher in the MLs. Unfortunately it takes more than general location to have a fastball like Imanaga, and it’s probably not hard to find plenty of pitchers who work fastball up/breaking ball below that always 

Wesneski doesn't need to be like a crowned prince of command to be the better here. His workloads, health, MiLB numbers, and faster track all suggest a big advantage here, especially in the varieties of long run (rest of reason, contract, FA outlook etc) 

Brown’s calling card is that mid-upper 80s curveball, and it’s likely not so sustainable as a SP. Beyond that things get pretty generic and/or high risk: some velo on a straight fastball they can’t locate, workload concerns, years removed from TJ1 and never away from the risk of TJ2+, no deception, not a strike thrower….His perceived ceiling seems to be one of the most overblown in the org, has seemed that way for years really 

Is his command better, though? The 18.1 IP on Brown suggest that that is a very shifting landscape. We're only 18.1 IP, but so far, Ben Brown has a 65.5% strike% compared to league average of 63.7%. This is up over 5% than his strike% in Triple-A last year, a marked improvement. In all appearances so far in 2024, Wesneski has a strike% of 63.5%. Last year, Wesneski threw 62.3% of his pitches for strikes. Wesneski in 2022 threw 65.5% of his pitches for strikes which is conveniently exactly where Brown is in 2024. Brown has to maintain the improved strike throwing, but it doesn't seem so cut and dry that Wesneski is better command wise when I take all of the data into account. 

It's not just throwing strikes, but looking at their zone command, I think it's pretty close, too. Brown's doing well in terms of where to attack, and I think Wesneski, in 2024, looks much more like 2022 in terms of zone command. With that said, we're a year removed from pretty rough in-zone fastball command from Hayden. Generally speaking, I think we're in a "wait and see" holding pattern on the command between the two of them more so than anything definitive. You can choose to see that differently, but I just don't see much in the current data set that I see to be anywhere else than "wait and see". This could all change if Brown regresses back to 2024 Triple-A levels of wild, but right now, there's an upward trend on his command and I think that's quite the important data point for a young pitcher.

Regardless, you seem to have your mind set on this and differences of opinions is the flavor of life. With that said, I'll leave this as my last thoughts on the situation: when the Chicago Cubs had the opportunity to chose between Brown and Wesneski this year, they've chosen the former, themselves. In the end, I think it's fair to like one over the other, but I also don't agree with the idea that Brown's upside has been overblown. He's a unique arm with unicorn type qualities in terms of breaking ball and how it meshes with the fastball. That constitutes excitement on the upside, and many of very smart people have said as such.

I think in the end I see both in the bullpen long-term, and why I rate Brown higher in ceiling is the stuff is just...better. Paired with a "wait and see" on how both continue along their path of strike throwing and zone-command as well. Wesneski is likely to have a more durable career, and in the end, might be more valuable, but I think the ceiling of Ben Brown has been appropriately rated. He's far more risk and reward. I'm excited both are having successful 2024's so far, hope Brown's strike% increase is a sign of things to come, and hope that Wesneski forces the issue to join the Cubs in a more permanent role later this summer as well; both should be weapons. If we're having this level of discussion about arms...it only means good things for the organization.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

My point with the comparison was less to tear down Brown(I'm still a little skeptical but if he keeps throwing strikes like this...), and more to build up Wesneski.  To that end, a lot has been made of Wesneski's struggles against LHH last year, but it's worth recognizing that he did not have struggles against them in AAA or MLB in 2022, and to start 2024 he hasn't struggled against them at either level.  This is not to say that the 2023 issues were a fluke to write off, and the most recent sample sizes aren't much, but part of the concern when we talk about this is that Wesneski's current repertoire is *incompatible* with getting out LHH.  That's a very difficult thing to resolve at the MLB level, but if in practice it may be that he had a mechanical/pitch mix issue that caused the LHH struggles, that's more likely to be solvable.  And if he does so, then in terms of present utility I think he and Brown are very similar.