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Just as a prison bid only lasts two days, a baseball season only lasts 90. The problem is, you have to earn the right to cross off each of those 90 days. Every win draws a contending team more than 1% closer to its goal, but every loss is a day lost, without progress. A hot start is a wonderful blessing; it makes the rest of the season feel easy and slow. A poor first half, like the 2023 Cubs had, makes the final two months feel like finals week for an overwhelmed freshman, and it fries pretty much everyone.
The 2024 edition of the Cubs has a lot of season left before them. They're only 13 games into their 90-game journey, and that's a bit frustrating, because it's easy to point to days where they missed promising chances to make progress. Counsell, a master of chasing each win with a keen understanding of its value without losing sight of the fact that 90 of them are needed, has had a secondary remit during this first stage of the campaign, and he's doing it brilliantly. The manager, who is the leader of the season expedition and is tasked with setting its pace, direction, and strategies, has gained the most valuable resource he has in that job: information.
While not all the news is good, the Cubs have a lot of new insight into their team--especially their pitching staff. Entering the season, there was unavoidable and considerable uncertainty about the best ways to use a large number of arms in the organization. Counsell and company have resolved some of that uncertainty already, sometimes by being willing to learn the truth about a guy the hard way.
Let's quickly break down what they know.
Traditional Starters: Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon
Though Steele got hurt early and Taillon is just now returning from being hurt, the coaching staff and front office knew they would need to rely on each to give them 150-plus innings, before the team even arrived for spring training. It was impossible to be sure what Imanaga would be capable of, though, before seeing how he responded to the different ball in MLB, the elements at Wrigley Field in April, and the thump in American lineups. He's passed that test with flying colors. These three can and must be used as full-fledged starters, with the goal of pitching six innings or more every time they take the mound.
Twice Through the Order: Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Ben Brown
As I wrote two weeks ago, it caused Counsell obvious consternation to try to stretch Assad past 15 outs in the team's loss to open their series in San Diego. He was trying not to lose a day, but he also wanted to know whether he could steal an out or two in such situations by keeping Assad in games even when the expected performance was less than optimal.
Counsell seemed a bit more ok with trying to get an extra out from Assad Saturday against Miami, and had it not been for another Adbert Alzolay blowup, he'd have gotten away with that one. What he's learned now, though, is that even if Alzolay appears to be cruising, he can't be trusted to try the opposing lineup a third time.
The same is true of Wicks, so far. His evolving pitch mix gives him upside, but there are growing pains happening right now. It's clear that those two are going to need to be removed after 18 batters (if not sooner) in all but blowout situations, for as long as either has a spot in the rotation. That's fine. Counsell can work with that. He just needed to give them each an audition or two to be sure of their capacity.
Brown is a wholly different story. Although the team has twice turned to him for full-length starts and sought to get innings from him (within the limits of his preparation during spring), they never envisioned having him pitching as a traditional starter for a sustained period in 2024. That he's shown the ability to turn over the lineup card and keep rolling is a delightful surprise, and a sustainable one. He's suddenly an arm you could picture giving the team 110 or so innings, and the gaps into which he can be plugged on this staff make that kind of bulk especially tantalizing.
Versatile Bullpen Arms and Once-Through Piggybacks: Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski
The limitations of Assad and Wicks (and the reality that the team will sometimes want to protect Steele, Taillon, and Imanaga by lifting them an inning earlier than absolutely necessary) mean that the Cubs will need relievers capable of multi-inning appearances and half-starts, wherein they face as many as nine batters in a game. Entering the season, we knew they had one such pitcher, in Smyly. Unfortunately, it's now clear that that's all Hendricks can be, although he'll probably be asked to do it on a scheduled basis from the front ends of games, for however long he remains on the active roster.
On the other hand, Wesneski has stepped forward and announced himself as more than playable in this type of role. His competition for the rotation in spring training always seemed doomed, and it was still an open question whether he would be a usable reliever against both left- and right-handed batters, in more than single-inning bursts. That's now a bit less in doubt, though as the third guy in line for those kinds of innings, he might be up and down a few more times this year.
High-Leverage Single-Inning Arms: Héctor Neris, Adbert Alzolay, Mark Leiter Jr., Yency Almonte
Yes, Alzolay still counts as a trusted high-leverage guy, although his role will have to be modified to reflect the reality of his home-run problem until he proves he's fixed it. Neris and Leiter look more likely to close games in the near future, though, and while the former has made a lot of fans nervous, he's the type of pitcher (long track record, varied repertoire, rubber arm) who only inspires confidence in a manager. Counsell has learned the texture of a Neris inning, and now knows how best to deploy him.
Leiter comes with a bit thinner a manual than Neris, but he and Counsell already seem to have developed trust. Ditto for Almonte, who needs to be used in a more limited way (on multiple fronts) than does Leiter but will dominate in the right matchups and situations. Counsell probably has quite a bit more confidence in this group than the fan base does, even if (as the responsible party when any of them fail) he will always look dyspeptic when talking about it and be quicker on the trigger to make changes than he would be with others.
Extras, to Be Used as Needed: Keegan Thompson, Luke Little, Daniel Palencia, José Cuas, Colten Brewer, Julio Teherán
Counsell already knows Teherán, after having him in his rotation with Milwaukee in 2023. The rest of these have been thrust upon him, and they're neither consistent nor excellent, but he's figured out where each one's strengths and weaknesses lie. Thompson, Little, and Palencia have upward mobility from this group, given the stuff the latter two have shown and the way the former has pitched since being called up from Iowa. For now, though, Counsell has found niches for each where they can help him, but can't hurt him.
Similar things are happening on the positional side. Counsell has started to lean toward Miguel Amaya at catcher, and he's gotten a long look at Christopher Morel at third base. Injuries to Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ have helped him clarify his own thinking about the best hitters on the team. There's still much intel left to gather on both sides of the roster list, but Counsell already knows more about the team he's running than he did three and a half weeks ago.
Learning it all might have cost the team a game, but most of the missed opportunities to shorten the season have been the players' fault. Counsell has made a couple of necessary sacrifices, but he's also trying to stay ahead of the calendar, and so far, the team is doing that well. Given all the self-knowledge they've gained in the process, still having 77 days left in this season--rather than 74 or 75--is an acceptable outcome.
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