What roster/playing time surprises do you anticipate?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Inspired by the conversation on swingmen here: 

 

What are the roster or playing time decisions you think are unexpectedly going to happen, or at least have a much higher likelihood than most people think?  I have two:

• I think one of Smyly or Wesneski grabbing the 5th starter role is a near coin flip, if not the slight favorite given it's 2 v 1 with Wicks on the other end.  Wicks would then start in Iowa in this setup most likely.
• It's not the most likely or even 2nd most likely outcome, but I think there's a legitimate chance Mastrobuoni pulls a Madrigal and gets a lot of 3B PAs.  If Busch doesn't look capable over there he has left handedness on his side, he adds real value with his speed, and after some early struggles with the bat he looked functional at the plate(142 wRC+ in Iowa, 112 wRC+ in Chicago after his July callup).

 

What are yours?

 

[CubinNY]

Canario taking control of CF absent Bellinger, with PCA in the PCL

[muntjack]

I will be shocked if Wicks isn't in the rotation right out of the gate.  Jed has put his eggs in the 'kids are gonna play' basket.  All the upside for this season is pinned to their development.  Rehabbing Smyly's trade value can't be a priority this time around.  

[Post Count Padder]

30 minutes ago, muntjack said:

I will be shocked if Wicks isn't in the rotation right out of the gate.  Jed has put his eggs in the 'kids are gonna play' basket.  All the upside for this season is pinned to their development.  Rehabbing Smyly's trade value can't be a priority this time around.  

I'm with you on that. I honestly see no reason it's not his spot to lose in ST. They gave him a look at the end of last season and he mostly impressed. I'd rather him over some of the FA starters out there we were connected to recently (Lorenzen, Thor). And if he sputters out of the gate I'm confident Assad can step back in. I honestly really like our starting depth. No big wow factor but should be decent.

[Bertz]

Setting aside the bullpen stuff I already mentioned in the other thread:

- I agree Wicks isn't a lock for the #5 starter, but I think Assad is the big challenger.  Even if you give him zero credit for FIP-beating (not unreasonable), he had a 3.96 xFIP from 6/16 onward.  He was at 4.26 during the period he was back in the rotation from 8/5 - 9/23.  League average last year was 4.33.  I'd put the 5th starter odds out of the gate at something like 40% Wicks, 30% Assad, 20% Wesneski, 10% Smyly or other

- Agree with TT that Mastrobuoni's got a pretty easy path to getting the plurality of the playing time at 3B.  His Statcast numbers at Iowa were extremely solid, and the more I play with AAA Statcast data the more it appears to translate very well to MLB

- I harp on this a lot, but Wisdom and Morel are very redundant and it feels like there's a chance for something shocking to happen there.  Like an 11th our trade or even Morel spending a bit of time at Iowa

[Jason Ross]

Honestly? I don't really expect many surprises barring injuries. We can't account for them and they're random..,.but I actually think most things (unless we add an outside Boras 4) right now are kind of settled. I think I'm pretty confident on the bulk of the rotation, starting lineup and bullpen right now. I think Wicks is a pretty solid lock for the rotation, I think the back end of the BP is very settled, and I think Madrigal and Wisdom will do enough to handle 3b most days. 

One thing I could see happening if they don't end up bringing back Bellinger is Alexander Canario going Patrick Wisdom for a week and taking CF for the bulk of April over Tauchmann. I wouldn't call it a bet, just a thing I could see happening. Canario probably doesn't have the bat to ball skills to maintain the pace or the position, but he's young enough, unknown enough to many pitchers, and has enough flash that I could see him whacking 5 home runs in quick succession, having a high BABIP (despite a high whiff rate) while Mike Tauchmann turned back into a pumpkin for him to run with the position for a bit. 

[Post Count Padder]

I'm gonna add I could see someone slated to start the year in the pen getting booted for one of Little or Horn to be the extra lefty. My money would be on Cuas, who had some ups and downs last year and still has options. There's also the possibility Smyly looks washed and gets DFAd.

[CubinNY]

41 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Honestly? I don't really expect many surprises barring injuries. We can't account for them and they're random..,.but I actually think most things (unless we add an outside Boras 4) right now are kind of settled. I think I'm pretty confident on the bulk of the rotation, starting lineup and bullpen right now. I think Wicks is a pretty solid lock for the rotation, I think the back end of the BP is very settled, and I think Madrigal and Wisdom will do enough to handle 3b most days. 

One thing I could see happening if they don't end up bringing back Bellinger is Alexander Canario going Patrick Wisdom for a week and taking CF for the bulk of April over Tauchmann. I wouldn't call it a bet, just a thing I could see happening. Canario probably doesn't have the bat to ball skills to maintain the pace or the position, but he's young enough, unknown enough to many pitchers, and has enough flash that I could see him whacking 5 home runs in quick succession, having a high BABIP (despite a high whiff rate) while Mike Tauchmann turned back into a pumpkin for him to run with the position for a bit. 

4 posts up I'm liking the way you think, 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Setting aside the bullpen stuff I already mentioned in the other thread:

- I agree Wicks isn't a lock for the #5 starter, but I think Assad is the big challenger.  Even if you give him zero credit for FIP-beating (not unreasonable), he had a 3.96 xFIP from 6/16 onward.  He was at 4.26 during the period he was back in the rotation from 8/5 - 9/23.  League average last year was 4.33.  I'd put the 5th starter odds out of the gate at something like 40% Wicks, 30% Assad, 20% Wesneski, 10% Smyly or other

- Agree with TT that Mastrobuoni's got a pretty easy path to getting the plurality of the playing time at 3B.  His Statcast numbers at Iowa were extremely solid, and the more I play with AAA Statcast data the more it appears to translate very well to MLB

- I harp on this a lot, but Wisdom and Morel are very redundant and it feels like there's a chance for something shocking to happen there.  Like an 11th our trade or even Morel spending a bit of time at Iowa

I really can’t see Morel traded or starting the season in Iowa. He is their biggest home run threat. There are obviously similarities, between him and Wisdom, but Morel is a much better player. Has more control left, is much younger and far more valuable. Or at least, for the Cubs sake, he better be. If Morel doesn’t play well enough to earn 500+ AB, I fear this could be a long season. 

[BearDown1223]

Probably not a chance to break camp with the Cubs, but I think Matt Shaw forces his way quickly (June) and makes an immediate impact. 

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Post Count Padder said:

I'm with you on that. I honestly see no reason it's not his spot to lose in ST. They gave him a look at the end of last season and he mostly impressed. I'd rather him over some of the FA starters out there we were connected to recently (Lorenzen, Thor). And if he sputters out of the gate I'm confident Assad can step back in. I honestly really like our starting depth. No big wow factor but should be decent.

Counsell is very excited to work with Wesneski.  I think he's the favorite to get the 5th spot.  I think he has to do terrible to not win the job.  Also, I don't personally like 3 LHP in a rotation of 5.  When Horton joins the team, I think that's when they go to a full 6 man rotation. 

 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

Counsell is very excited to work with Wesneski.  I think he's the favorite to get the 5th spot.  I think he has to do terrible to not win the job.  Also, I don't personally like 3 LHP in a rotation of 5.  When Horton joins the team, I think that's when they go to a full 6 man rotation. 

 

I think Assad or Wesneski gets traded before the start of the season. I do expect Wicks is the 5th starter. If he isn’t, then he is traded instead of Assad or Wesneski. 

I also wouldn’t mind if Mastrobuoni won the job at 3rd. If they don’t get Bellinger he could be the left handed bat they need. I feel we know what Madrigal and Wisdom are. So if Mastrobuoni wins the job that means he is better than those two. IMO that is a good thing. 

Edited February 16, 2024 by Rcal10

[Jason Ross]

14 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I think Assad or Wesneski gets traded before the start of the season. I do expect Wicks is the 5th starter. If he isn’t, then he is traded instead of Assad or Wesneski. 

I also wouldn’t mind if Mastrobuoni won the job at 3rd. If they don’t get Bellinger he could be the left handed bat they need. I feel we know what Madrigal and Wisdom are. So if Mastrobuoni wins the job that means he is better than those two. IMO that is a good thing. 

A month ago I'd think there was a decent chance of this; but today I think that's very unlikely. The Cubs are clearly a team who's putting the idea of "depth" in their forefront. While we can debate whether the Cubs are veering into "hording" mode or not, the Cubs have really put a premium on the idea that there's going to be a lot of players they can turn to. A month ago, the Cubs could have picked up one of these depth arms after a trade, but I think we're probably in the time period when it'd be very unlikely the Cubs would move either.

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

A month ago I'd think there was a decent chance of this; but today I think that's very unlikely. The Cubs are clearly a team who's putting the idea of "depth" in their forefront. While we can debate whether the Cubs are veering into "hording" mode or not, the Cubs have really put a premium on the idea that there's going to be a lot of players they can turn to. A month ago, the Cubs could have picked up one of these depth arms after a trade, but I think we're probably in the time period when it'd be very unlikely the Cubs would move either.

I agree that 1 month ago I thought it was more likely one of them was packaged with others in a bigger trade to bring in major league talent. But now I am thinking of a different use for one of them. I can see a team have a starter go down in spring and the Cubs offer one of Assad or Wesneski for a young prospect not in the 40 man roster. There is still a possibility of the trade for major league talent, but less likely than before. But now the opposite sort of trade could happen once pitchers are in and we see who goes down. 

[Tim]

Christopher Morel - All Star Third Baseman.

 

Book it now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 hours ago, Tim said:

Christopher Morel - All Star Third Baseman.

Book it now.

I was coming in to say Morel gets 400+ PAs this season.