Cubs trading for Michael Busch & Yency Almonte (for Ferris & Hope)

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

If he had any potential to be a good defender, he probably should have become one by now. 

Probably. Though I do think it's important to mention that we really don't know what kind of a defender he is. Defensive scouting reports are notoriously off: Albert Almora was supposed to be a plus defender in CF, while Javier Baez was suggested to have to move off of short. With no OAA/DRS for Triple-A and only a 90 inning sample in the majors, we just don't have data, only the scouting report. As well, there are some reports that he's worked hard at second and made himself decent at second base:

Quote

Evaluators inside and outside of the Dodgers organization were impressed at how he has transformed himself into an adequate defender at second base, though Los Angeles deployed him primarily at third base in 2023. The game speeds up on him at the hot corner, however, and he's still best suited for first base and capable of playing a passable left field.

- per MLB Pipeline

His biggest knock is his arm. The Cubs get credit for taking a similarly "noodly" arm player in Nick Madrigal and making him a viable defensive third baseman. That doesn't mean they have the magic touch to do it for everyone, but it wouldn't be shocking to see a passable second baseman become a passable third baseman with a team who's shown the ability to squeeze juice out of that fruit before.

Ultimately, I expect him to be a first baseman with the Cubs. I don't want to suggest he's likely to end up elsewhere, only that, I'd stop short of saying "never". 

[squally1313]

23 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Probably. Though I do think it's important to mention that we really don't know what kind of a defender he is. Defensive scouting reports are notoriously off: Albert Almora was supposed to be a plus defender in CF, while Javier Baez was suggested to have to move off of short. With no OAA/DRS for Triple-A and only a 90 inning sample in the majors, we just don't have data, only the scouting report. As well, there are some reports that he's worked hard at second and made himself decent at second base:

- per MLB Pipeline

His biggest knock is his arm. The Cubs get credit for taking a similarly "noodly" arm player in Nick Madrigal and making him a viable defensive third baseman. That doesn't mean they have the magic touch to do it for everyone, but it wouldn't be shocking to see a passable second baseman become a passable third baseman with a team who's shown the ability to squeeze juice out of that fruit before.

Ultimately, I expect him to be a first baseman with the Cubs. I don't want to suggest he's likely to end up elsewhere, only that, I'd stop short of saying "never". 

I was actually referring to Morel, though I should probably be consistent and apply the same statement to both from a big picture. With Morel specifically there's been enough data posted here about the quantity of opportunity he's gotten at third base in the minors and how poorly it went strictly from an errors perspective, and then obviously we saw how much they tried to avoid playing him there in Chicago. 

As for Busch, it's a weird trade if they don't think his glove plays anywhere beyond a passable first baseman given that Morel and his 5 years of control exist and the poor man's Busch is the starting first baseman for Iowa and it's a really high upside arm they gave up to get him. There's a chance, I guess, that they see Busch as a clearly superior hitter to Morel, which I'm not going to get too into because everyone (probably especially myself) is already pretty dug in on what they think of Morel. My one sentence opinion on that comparison is that anyone who runs 30+% K rates has a really narrow path to success, but also he's got 850 PAs with a 114 wRC, which you can't ignore. Or they just really, really wanted a left handed bat. 

[cbbryan]

On 1/11/2024 at 12:50 PM, Bertz said:

Let's assume the plan is still Bellinger and Hoskins.  You'd have a lineup of something like

Happ (LF)

Hoskins (1B)

Seiya (RF)

Bellinger (CF)

Swanson (SS)

Hoerner (2B)

Morel (DH)

Busch (3B)

Gomes (C)

No superstar bat, but every spot in that lineup projects north of league average except catcher, and Gomes/Amaya are likely above average offensively by catcher standards.

 

I would prefer Bellinger & Chapman over Bellinger & Hoskins.  That would most likely mean Busch is the primary 1B.  

[cbbryan]

On 1/11/2024 at 1:09 PM, PeanutPunch33 said:

I would be upset if they trade Morel. He’s just a kid that makes things happen in big moments, like Baez or Trea Turner 

Absolutely agree. Really love watching him play. 

 

I don't think Busch impacts Morel as much as he does Mervis and/or potential FA signings at 1B.

 

If Jed is going to take a flier on someone at 3B, I'd prefer it be Morel. 

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Michael Busch Light said:

I do think Morel has the tools to be a good defender while Busch probably has a ceiling of slightly below average. 

Morel's athleticism has been mentioned before, but it sounds like he struggles at 3B and they experimented at 1B (apparently unsuccessfully).  Apparently he's an extremely athletic DH.

 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I was actually referring to Morel, though I should probably be consistent and apply the same statement to both from a big picture. With Morel specifically there's been enough data posted here about the quantity of opportunity he's gotten at third base in the minors and how poorly it went strictly from an errors perspective, and then obviously we saw how much they tried to avoid playing him there in Chicago. 

As for Busch, it's a weird trade if they don't think his glove plays anywhere beyond a passable first baseman given that Morel and his 5 years of control exist and the poor man's Busch is the starting first baseman for Iowa and it's a really high upside arm they gave up to get him. There's a chance, I guess, that they see Busch as a clearly superior hitter to Morel, which I'm not going to get too into because everyone (probably especially myself) is already pretty dug in on what they think of Morel. My one sentence opinion on that comparison is that anyone who runs 30+% K rates has a really narrow path to success, but also he's got 850 PAs with a 114 wRC, which you can't ignore. Or they just really, really wanted a left handed bat. 

Oh, my bad, Squally! Yeah I kind of agree on Morel. 

[Rcal10]

4 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Not a shot, but this is really funny coming from someone who's been a huge Morel proponent around here.

Actually my comment was more because what many are suggesting. Not necessarily my POV. If people don’t feel Busch has a position why  it trade him for Naylor. I, on the other hand, feel Busch and Morel can both be tried at 1st and 3rd. 

[Rob]

15 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Morel's athleticism has been mentioned before, but it sounds like he struggles at 3B and they experimented at 1B (apparently unsuccessfully).  Apparently he's an extremely athletic DH.

 

With his speed and arm, I have to believe the Cubs are going to spend a lot of time this season trying to make him an outfielder. He could be a superlative RF if they can just develop his instincts out there.

[CubinNY]

4 hours ago, Rob said:

With his speed and arm, I have to believe the Cubs are going to spend a lot of time this season trying to make him an outfielder. He could be a superlative RF if they can just develop his instincts out there.

I saw him play about a dozen games in AAA last year, mostly in CF and LF. It was awful. I mean bad in a 15 year old league environment. 

[Rob]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

I saw him play about a dozen games in AAA last year, mostly in CF and LF. It was awful. I mean bad in a 15 year old league environment. 

Oh yeah, he's absolutely terrible out there.

But my head canon is basically that he spent his whole career as an infielder and just hasn't learned how to judge a flyball off the bat yet. Let him DH this year, but have him work every day in the outfield before games. Eventually, some small part of me believes he can get to the point he might be playable out there. The tools are just too good for me to wrap my head around him being that bad. I feel like something eventually has to click. And if it does, wow.

[Cuzi]

19 hours ago, Rob said:

Oh yeah, he's absolutely terrible out there.

But my head canon is basically that he spent his whole career as an infielder and just hasn't learned how to judge a flyball off the bat yet. Let him DH this year, but have him work every day in the outfield before games. Eventually, some small part of me believes he can get to the point he might be playable out there. The tools are just too good for me to wrap my head around him being that bad. I feel like something eventually has to click. And if it does, wow.

By the time it could possibly click for him and simultaneously have a spot in the outfield for him to actually play, he'll have 2 years of arbitration left and a big question over his head if he can actually do it. The most value he'll more than likely ever have to the Cubs is in trade.

People just need to get over the fear of trading him. He's bad defensively everywhere on the diamond minus a very small sample size at 2B. His bat is good but its not good enough to try and fit a square peg in a round hole. If he figures it out, great, but he's not going to figure it out on the Cubs because he has no opportunity to do that. The spots are filled.

Edited January 14, 2024 by Cuzi

[We Got The Whole 9]

I think if they don't get Chapman they will be fine letting Madrigal and company hold it down and bridge to Shaw or even Murray if Shaw doesn't work out. But I think arm strength is less of a concern to them than most people realize. They don't need to make the Rolen and Arenado plays, just be rock solid on the routine plays and at least have the instincts and make the right reads. 

[CubinNY]

8 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I think if they don't get Chapman they will be fine letting Madrigal and company hold it down and bridge to Shaw or even Murray if Shaw doesn't work out. But I think arm strength is less of a concern to them than most people realize. They don't need to make the Rolen and Arenado plays, just be rock solid on the routine plays and at least have the instincts and make the right reads. 

Hopefully it’s a short bridge

[Rcal10]

13 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Hopefully it’s a short bridge

For those who know far more than me regarding players projections and ceilings, how does Busch rate compared to Pasquintino? I know several guys really liked him. Can we expect a similar rookie seasons(more AB) from Busch that Pasquintino put up last year. Is it reasonable for him, in his rookie year to play at 108? Is long term more like a Hoskins? Someone who can play at 123? Are those realistic goals for him? I am not talking about his 100% top ceiling outcome. I am asking if this is a realistic goal for him as a Cubs everyday 1st baseman the next 6 years. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

13 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Hopefully it’s a short bridge

Don't get much shorter than Madrigal 😉

 

But really, maybe they'll shock us and sign Bregman haha

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Don't get much shorter than Madrigal 😉

 

But really, maybe they'll shock us and sign Bregman haha

I'm optimistic about Shaw given what he did last summer, But he's probably a September call-up at best with this administration. That's ok, It appears that they are not necessarily trying again this year. Nevertheless, I'd like for them to find a better option than Mr. Glass, Mr. K, and Mr. Hands-of-Stone (although Morel's problem appears to be footwork) for this year at least. Maybe Murry will be ready by June. It's what the Ricketts want in terms of building a team, they might as well throw them in the deep end. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I'm optimistic about Shaw given what he did last summer, But he's probably a September call-up at best with this administration. That's ok, It appears that they are not necessarily trying again this year. Nevertheless, I'd like for them to find a better option than Mr. Glass, Mr. K, and Mr. Hands-of-Stone (although Morel's problem appears to be footwork) for this year at least. Maybe Murry will be ready by June. It's what the Ricketts want in terms of building a team, they might as well throw them in the deep end. 

I absolutely think they are trying for next year. No reason not to and no reason to suggest they are not at this point. That is why I want a real 3rs baseman.

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I absolutely think they are trying for next year. No reason not to and no reason to suggest they are not at this point. That is why I want a real 3rs baseman.

We have different definitions of trying. Whatever, I'll wait until ST to see what happens.

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

We have different definitions of trying. Whatever, I'll wait until ST to see what happens.

Well they aren’t going to be the Braves or Dodgers. But I do think they are trying to win the division and also trying to be a 90 win team. And there is still plenty of time for that to happen. Trade for a decent 3rd baseman, sign Bellinger and a late inning pen arm and I think they are the best team in the division. There are definitely other ways they can go as well. But in the end if they add 2 bats and a pen arm I see them to be a solid team. Which is why I don’t want them to give 3rd to Madrigal until a minor leaguer forces himself into the team. I don’t count on any of their minor leaguers to do that this year. I would rather have a proven guy. Preferably a guy with only 1 or 2 years left on his contract so they can leave 3rd open for 25’ or 26’. 

[Bull]

On 1/12/2024 at 12:39 AM, TomtheBombadil said:

The thing with Mervis is he was always minor league depth. The guy is a senior UDFA 1B/DH prospect who hit .209/.310/.367 in A ball during his pro debut at age 23, ran a 5/25 BB:K in High A during his breakout age 24, ran an uninspiring .379 OBP that year, wasn't/isn't a twitchy athlete, etc. He was never the savior he was portrayed as last March.

In some sense he's in a better spot post-2023 (.287/.399/.533 with some approach over essentially a  full AAA season) than he was in 2022. He's officially in the club and, now that the cat is out of the bag that this mid-20s UDFA LHH is going to whiff some in 2020s MLB, there's room to like stuff like the EVs, barrels, hard hit, semblance of approach, low chase, more walks...The .234/.318/.424 x triple slash is right in line with Candelario's .234/.318/.445 with the Cubs, Rowdy Tellez's .219/.306/.461 for the Brewers in 2022, and I have my doubts a team looking for LHH, flyballs, and power is in any hurry to move on from depth at a...for lack of a better phrase...position of need when they don't really have to have have to. I suspect they'll be quick to move on from ST on unless a great trade comes up before that, cheap optionable LH power should be easy enough to trade if need be, but there's not really any hurry. Right now he doesn't require anything but a roster spot that isn't exactly going to a star or starter

 

Highlighting Mervis’ undrafted status is disingenuous and you know it.

he isn’t the pedigree Busch is, and I agree Busch is likely the better player going forward, but acting like the 2020 draft was anything resembling normal is odd. Mervis is drafted any other year.

Edited January 15, 2024 by Bull

[LBiittner]

Wow, rosenthal reports dodgers tried to send Busch/plus to Sox for Cease. Sounds like Jed did well.

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Wow, rosenthal reports dodgers tried to send Busch/plus to Sox for Cease. Sounds like Jed did well.

That is encouraging. I asked earlier but no one responded. But how does Busch compare to Pasquintino? I know a lot of guys liked Pasquintino. What is realistic to expect from Busch next year and then in his prime? 

[LBiittner]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That is encouraging. I asked earlier but no one responded. But how does Busch compare to Pasquintino? I know a lot of guys liked Pasquintino. What is realistic to expect from Busch next year and then in his prime? 

I have no idea who pasquintino is

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I have no idea who pasquintino is

I realize that. But other posters do. He is a KC first baseman that when it was mentioned he was possibly available several people spoke highly of him. I know 1908 likes him. I am just curious how Busch ranks versus him. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think Busch has more swing and miss and a bit better batting eye and HR potential, but I think they have a fair amount of similarities as LHH 1B who don't try to go full Gallo in their offensive approach, with more gap to gap swings and above average contact rates.