Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Tim]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

We'd lose a second round pick. Our last three second round selections have been James Triantos, Jackson Ferris and Jaxson Wiggins.

So who is a prospect in that range this year with a "J" first name? Preferably someone named some form of "Jackson"...

[Tim]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

Where can I find AAA batted ball numbers?

https://www.prospectslive.com/2023-aaa-statcast-data

[thawv]

5 minutes ago, Tim said:

https://www.prospectslive.com/2023-aaa-statcast-data

Thank you, Tim!

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

Where can I find AAA batted ball numbers?

You can find some things through Baseball Savant, as some leagues provide statcast data to Baseball Savant. Most of this. however, is on the individual game level, and isn't always publicly available without additional subscriptions. Because I've been writing for NSBB here, they hooked me up with access to TruMedia, so I have been able to see things like Cub minor league players swing%, contact rates, damage against specific pitches/velocity...which has given me a bit better of an idea of the issues players have. Why I've come around on the idea that PCA probably isn't ready today. He's got good bat to ball skills, but he's not making a lot of contact at Triple-A right now; largely due to that approach issue.

[thawv]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

You can find some things through Baseball Savant, as some leagues provide statcast data to Baseball Savant. Most of this. however, is on the individual game level, and isn't always publicly available without additional subscriptions. Because I've been writing for NSBB here, they hooked me up with access to TruMedia, so I have been able to see things like Cub minor league players swing%, contact rates, damage against specific pitches/velocity...which has given me a bit better of an idea of the issues players have. Why I've come around on the idea that PCA probably isn't ready today. He's got good bat to ball skills, but he's not making a lot of contact at Triple-A right now; largely due to that approach issue.

Thanks for that!

 

[Tim]

4 minutes ago, thawv said:

Thank you, Tim!

No worries. I do wish the player pages at baseballsavant showed minor league data. 

[LBiittner]

6 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

We'd lose a second round pick. Our last three second round selections have been James Triantos, Jackson Ferris and Jaxson Wiggins.

The Cubs have done a pretty good job over the last few seasons with second rounders. So while I think the Cubs are a big market and shouldn't be afraid of losing second round picks to sign the right kinds of free agents, it also wouldn't be a nothing loss, either.

Ouch, scratch that idea. Just looking at his health over the years, since 2018, he's had 12 reported injuries over that time frame(not sure of severity).

It's been speculated the artificial turf in Toronto is taking a toll on his legs, probably why he didn't jump on their offer before he opted for free agency?

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Ouch, scratch that idea. Just looking at his health over the years, since 2018, he's had 12 reported injuries over that time frame(not sure of severity).

It's been speculated the artificial turf in Toronto is taking a toll on his legs, probably why he didn't jump on their offer before he opted for free agency?

Perhaps, though he's played 140 and 155 games respectively over his two seasons, so it doesn't look like it's been too horrible on him. With that said, I cannot stand the tournament we play when we roll up to Indianapolis on all turf fields because they're hell on my knees...and that's like a weekend, so i really wouldn't be surprised if he hates it too over a full season. 

[Rcal10]

43 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Ouch, scratch that idea. Just looking at his health over the years, since 2018, he's had 12 reported injuries over that time frame(not sure of severity).

It's been speculated the artificial turf in Toronto is taking a toll on his legs, probably why he didn't jump on their offer before he opted for free agency?

So you don’t want Chapman or Bellinger? Satisfied with the team for 24? I do think they are a low 80’s win team right now. Maybe 84 at best. But I would like to see something added. If not via free agency then a trade. And that is not easy to do. Hate to waste a year with the division being so winnable. 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

No worries. I do wish the player pages at baseballsavant showed minor league data. 

Fangraphs has it all now, but for guys who haven't made it to MLB yet you have to finagle your custom dashboard to get it all.  I'm hoping they have something less jerry rigged when the season starts.

[LBiittner]

22 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So you don’t want Chapman or Bellinger? Satisfied with the team for 24? I do think they are a low 80’s win team right now. Maybe 84 at best. But I would like to see something added. If not via free agency then a trade. And that is not easy to do. Hate to waste a year with the division being so winnable. 

Not Chapman at his expected $ and not at the cost of a 2.

Belli I want. Just expect Boris to pull a Philadelphia or Cali halo out of his butt.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

15 hours ago, squally1313 said:

All good points. Just ultimately feel like you're seriously capping the internal utility of some combination of three guys with a lot of current perceived value (Busch, PCA, Morel) for a pretty marginal benefit? Morel becomes like...the back up DH, PH off the bench? Which basically makes Wisdom useless until an inevitable Madrigal injury. PCA starts in AAA, his next step up is back up outfielder, his next step up is....forcing Bellinger to first and Busch to the bench? That's a lot of trade capital having to fight tooth and nail for ABs and then I look over and Jameson Taillon is our third starter. 

I guess the thing that I've become most convinced of this offseason(and to be clear I wasn't a huge skeptic before), is that if we're describing a playing time problem that only exists when 5+ players are healthy and productive, we're not really describing a playing time problem that exists in any practical measure for a team with playoff aspirations.  This is especially true for the Cubs given they just made their boldest decision of Jed's tenure to pay a record salary to a manager to optimize these decisions.

Now if you want to say you'd rather put the resources into the rotation, I think that's a fair argument though I think the ship has probably sailed on a 'clearly better than Taillon' SP at this juncture. I would also add that the same concerns we might have about opportunity for Morel/PCA/Busch/Wisdom apply in fairly equal measure to Wicks/Horton/Wesneski/Smyly.

[Bertz]

The market for Chapman is kind of fascinating. 

- He could maybe do the Jayson Werth "join a team a year or two early" thing with the Nats, Tigers, or Royals

- Blue Jays, Phillies, and Mariners are a fit but seem unlikely to continue playing in those waters financially 

- Cubs, Giants, and Angels could make it work but seem to be focused elsewhere

- Brewers and Marlins are competitive and have a fit but they're probably too cheap

With this many maybe's there's bound to be enough market for him to get paid at least reasonably well, but I do not have a good sense of where it's going to come from.

[CubinNY]

I'm not the smartest person in the world or even particularly on the ball about most financial things so this entire Boras drama makes almost no sense to me. 

It seems like the thing to do for a player is to gather offers from teams who are interested in signing you. Sort through those offers, make a decision on exclusive negotiations and start working on a definite contract. It might not be exactly what the player wants, but it's not going to be exactly what the team wants either. 

I don't understand negotiating from the standpoint of We want X for Y years, come get some. 

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Hard to know for sure, but maybe this gets things going a little. This may take one team out of both Bellinger and Chapman. That should get the attention of either of those guys as well as Boras. But I just don’t know anymore.

 

Also Tomorrow teams can utilize the 60 day IL, which can open up 40 man roster spots. 

So, hopefully we start seeing some transactions soon.

[squally1313]

45 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I guess the thing that I've become most convinced of this offseason(and to be clear I wasn't a huge skeptic before), is that if we're describing a playing time problem that only exists when 5+ players are healthy and productive, we're not really describing a playing time problem that exists in any practical measure for a team with playoff aspirations.  This is especially true for the Cubs given they just made their boldest decision of Jed's tenure to pay a record salary to a manager to optimize these decisions.

Fine, but I don't think there's nearly the flexibility you'd generally want in this type of situation. Worrying about where Ben Zobrist is going to play is a lot easier than worrying where Morel is going to play. Hopefully Counsell can work his magic, but it just seems like a jumble of mostly split neutral, defensively limited dudes without high ceilings. But you're convincing me on something like this:

• Happ: 125 LF, 25 DH
• Bellinger: 100 CF, 25 LF, 25 RF
• Seiya: 125 RF, 25 DH
• PCA: 50 CF
• Madrigal: 100 3B
• Wisdom: 50 3B
• Dansby: 150 SS
• Nico: 140 2B, 10 SS
• Belt: 100 1B
• Busch: 50 1B
• Morel: 75 DH, 10 2B
• Gomes/Amaya: 50/50 split

I still think in a contending year where you sign guys like Belt and Belli for immediate contributions, you can find veterans to replace PCA and Morels role and use them to upgrade pitching as much as humanly possible. But also aware that's a short sighted decision and injuries/bad play happens.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Fine, but I don't think there's nearly the flexibility you'd generally want in this type of situation. Worrying about where Ben Zobrist is going to play is a lot easier than worrying where Morel is going to play. Hopefully Counsell can work his magic, but it just seems like a jumble of mostly split neutral, defensively limited dudes without high ceilings. But you're convincing me on something like this:

• Happ: 125 LF, 25 DH
• Bellinger: 100 CF, 25 LF, 25 RF
• Seiya: 125 RF, 25 DH
• PCA: 50 CF
• Madrigal: 100 3B
• Wisdom: 50 3B
• Dansby: 150 SS
• Nico: 140 2B, 10 SS
• Belt: 100 1B
• Busch: 50 1B
• Morel: 75 DH, 10 2B
• Gomes/Amaya: 50/50 split

I still think in a contending year where you sign guys like Belt and Belli for immediate contributions, you can find veterans to replace PCA and Morels role and use them to upgrade pitching as much as humanly possible. But also aware that's a short sighted decision and injuries/bad play happens.

Busch only 50 games? Morel only 85? Think for Belt and Bellinger to work those 150 games you have allocated to Wisdom and Madrigal needs be be closer to 50 with the extra 100 going to Morel and Busch. Which means one of them has to play 3rd. Which might be why they won’t do Belt and Bellinger. Like to see Morel and Busch each around 120. 

[LBiittner]

25 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Also Tomorrow teams can utilize the 60 day IL, which can open up 40 man roster spots. 

So, hopefully we start seeing some transactions soon.

I'm kinda scratching my head about this. I wonder why the Dodgers signed Kershaw earlier than tomorrow?

But then again; nothing the Dodgers do should surprise me.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

12 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Fine, but I don't think there's nearly the flexibility you'd generally want in this type of situation. Worrying about where Ben Zobrist is going to play is a lot easier than worrying where Morel is going to play. Hopefully Counsell can work his magic, but it just seems like a jumble of mostly split neutral, defensively limited dudes without high ceilings. But you're convincing me on something like this:

• Happ: 125 LF, 25 DH
• Bellinger: 100 CF, 25 LF, 25 RF
• Seiya: 125 RF, 25 DH
• PCA: 50 CF
• Madrigal: 100 3B
• Wisdom: 50 3B
• Dansby: 150 SS
• Nico: 140 2B, 10 SS
• Belt: 100 1B
• Busch: 50 1B
• Morel: 75 DH, 10 2B
• Gomes/Amaya: 50/50 split

I still think in a contending year where you sign guys like Belt and Belli for immediate contributions, you can find veterans to replace PCA and Morels role and use them to upgrade pitching as much as humanly possible. But also aware that's a short sighted decision and injuries/bad play happens.

 

I suspect the front office has a more multi-position view of Busch and Morel at this point, which helps because if they're 1B/DH's outside from playing 2B on a handful of Nico/Dansby rest days, I agree the fit is more awkward.  I don't expect they'll play 50 games each at 3B but I won't be surprised to see both combine for 30 or even 50 starts there, and maybe being an option in the OF depending on circumstances.  And also this split represents something resembling a best case.  There's 5 guys slated to play 150 games, it's likely one of them needs a DL stint or even tears a ligament.  Busch may pull a Mervis or Belt might pull a Mancini.  Said another way, if our main complaint is that a couple guys look like they're playing 30-40 games less than you hope, that's probably about the right amount of depth to be putting out a good team.  DH also appears to be missing a 25 game chunk too.

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Busch only 50 games? Morel only 85? Think for Belt and Bellinger to work those 150 games you have allocated to Wisdom and Madrigal needs be be closer to 50 with the extra 100 going to Morel and Busch. Which means one of them has to play 3rd. Which might be why they won’t do Belt and Bellinger. Like to see Morel and Busch each around 120. 

• If they sign Belt, they're giving him the starts at first base against righties until proven otherwise. Which is fine, Busch isn't young but he has a ton of control and no major league success and this would almost definitely be a one year deal for Belt.
• You can believe Morel should be playing more third, but we have 2023 as pretty clear evidence that the organization doesn't trust his glove there. And they've already been talking up Busch at first. Busch and Morel are better hitters but not so clearly superior at this point to make up for their presumed defensive shortcomings. To TTs point, there's probably a handful of starts for them there, maybe during Imanaga starts or whatever, but not 100. 

[LBiittner]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Busch only 50 games? Morel only 85? Think for Belt and Bellinger to work those 150 games you have allocated to Wisdom and Madrigal needs be be closer to 50 with the extra 100 going to Morel and Busch. Which means one of them has to play 3rd. Which might be why they won’t do Belt and Bellinger. Like to see Morel and Busch each around 120. 

Rcal,

Could Christopher Morel be a version of a very young yankee 2018 model of miguel andujar?

Don't shoot me !

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

I suspect the front office has a more multi-position view of Busch and Morel at this point, which helps because if they're 1B/DH's outside from playing 2B on a handful of Nico/Dansby rest days, I agree the fit is more awkward.  I don't expect they'll play 50 games each at 3B but I won't be surprised to see both combine for 30 or even 50 starts there, and maybe being an option in the OF depending on circumstances.  And also this split represents something resembling a best case.  There's 5 guys slated to play 150 games, it's likely one of them needs a DL stint or even tears a ligament.  Busch may pull a Mervis or Belt might pull a Mancini.  Said another way, if our main complaint is that a couple guys look like they're playing 30-40 games less than you hope, that's probably about the right amount of depth to be putting out a good team.  DH also appears to be missing a 25 game chunk too.

Good point on the DH, give those to Busch or Morel depending on who you like more. Of those 5 full time guys, an outfield injury makes PCA full time, middle infield injury puts Morel at second full time, which is good from a flexibility standpoint for sure. I just don't know if the team loses much offensively by signing like, Gio Urshela to play the Morel role, or just have Mastro play it (and giving Busch more PAs), and then creating some value on the pitching side. But I've also become pretty convinced that the trades just aren't there right now, so who knows. 

[Bertz]

35 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I'm not the smartest person in the world or even particularly on the ball about most financial things so this entire Boras drama makes almost no sense to me. 

It seems like the thing to do for a player is to gather offers from teams who are interested in signing you. Sort through those offers, make a decision on exclusive negotiations and start working on a definite contract. It might not be exactly what the player wants, but it's not going to be exactly what the team wants either. 

I don't understand negotiating from the standpoint of We want X for Y years, come get some. 

When you have the quality and quantity of players under rep that Boras has you can operate this way.  

There are 4 players left on the market you could call impact guys, all are repped by Boras.  He also has JD Martinez, who you might argue is the 5th best player on the market.  There are a couple quality guys left he doesn't represent like Amed Rosario, Michael Lorenzen, and Brandon Belt.  But more or less Boras' agency owned/owns all of the impact talent this winter outside of Nola, Gray, and the Japanese guys.  Next winter is not going to be much different with Soto, Cole, and Bregman.

Boras represents such a critical mass of players, and particularly the upper class of players, that he can literally move the market.  Some player whose agent is like his lawyer uncle has to operate more like what you describe.

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

So you don’t want Chapman or Bellinger? Satisfied with the team for 24? I do think they are a low 80’s win team right now. Maybe 84 at best. But I would like to see something added. If not via free agency then a trade. And that is not easy to do. Hate to waste a year with the division being so winnable. 

With all of the optimistic views of PCA and Busch, why do we need anyone?  Of course, neither has any track record at the ML level.

[CubinNY]

8 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

The first thing that came to mind for me is Michael Ynoa got $4 million a decade+ ago, Luis Morales got $3 million last year, and a standard issue ‘Merican with enough interest to have an opinion would say both mysterious foreign youths got paid. I’m too dumb to expand or even glue that together but something about how ‘Mericans are brainwashed and conditioned through constant rhetoric and propaganda to be anti-labor. Heck, that you both admit to not understanding it but default to “Boras drama” kinda speaks to the conditioning and brainwashing, no?

 

no.