Cubs offseason chit chat...

[LBiittner]

30 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I guess one trade of less than star players and a couple mid grade free agent signings could be considered very active. You may be right, I was just expecting a bit more than that. 

Isn't it more adventurous and exciting to white knuckle it thru the regular season inorder to hopefully slip into a playoff situation? Skin of the teeth is the way to go!!!

I mean it would be ho-hum to actually dominate this division, wouldn't it? 

[CubinNY]

12 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Isn't it more adventurous and exciting to white knuckle it thru the regular season inorder to hopefully slip into a playoff situation? Skin of the teeth is the way to go!!!

I mean it would be ho-hum to actually dominate this division, wouldn't it? 

are you nuts?

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

are you nuts?

Hahaha 😆 

I've now adapted my cub ambitions to expect life in the slow lane.

Some of us older grey farts sadly, will probably pass before the next new up and coming GM will be christened to adorn jeds vacant throne. 

Fortunately for those of you who still have fuzzy peaches could possibly experience decades of Heartbreak otherwise known as cubdom 

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Hahaha 😆 

I've now adapted my cub ambitions to expect life in the slow lane.

Some of us older grey farts sadly, will probably pass before the next new up and coming GM will be christened to adorn jeds vacant throne. 

Fortunately for those of you who still have fuzzy peaches could possibly experience decades of Heartbreak otherwise known as cubdom 

Jed will likely have the job for as long as he wants it. He and the Ricketss are simpatico. 

[LBiittner]

14 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Jed will likely have the job for as long as he wants it. He and the Ricketss are simpatico. 

I'm curious to watch Boston from afar and see if Breslow follows the Jed slow play, build it from the teardown  philosophy.

And see if Boston fans can handle/tolerate a 5 or 6 year famine.

[CubinNY]

6 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I'm curious to watch Boston from afar and see if Breslow follows the Jed slow play, build it from the teardown  philosophy.

And see if Boston fans can handle/tolerate a 5 or 6 year famine.

I don't think he needs to do that specifically, but they are going to be the worst team in the AL East. He was hired because he will likely follow the same path as Jed. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, I think, despite adding Imanaga, Busch, Neris and Almonte, I wouldn't classify this as an overly "active" offseason. They've certainly added a few players, filled gaps, but we're talking three general transactions over November, December, January and half of February so far. I think that's probably baseline for what we all expected. That's not a complaint, either, just how I'd classify what "active" would be. There's still some time left for the Cubs to add to the number of transactions, too. 

So I am down to this: sign Bellinger and Belt. Maybe add a pen arm or not. Fine if they do, but ok if they don’t. Between Belt, Busch and Morel you have DH, 3rd and 1st covered. Get Madrigal in for defense and some starts when a lefty is pitching. That would be a solid team and probably a B+ off season. This would mean either Morel or Busch would be at 3rd. But it does give them the best line up they could realistically have. I view Belt as maybe a 90-100 games a year player. So that being the case, there would be plenty of games for Madrigal to play 3rd. 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So I am down to this: sign Bellinger and Belt. Maybe add a pen arm or not. Fine if they do, but ok if they don’t. Between Belt, Busch and Morel you have DH, 3rd and 1st covered. Get Madrigal in for defense and some starts when a lefty is pitching. That would be a solid team and probably a B+ off season. This would mean either Morel or Busch would be at 3rd. But it does give them the best line up they could realistically have. I view Belt as maybe a 90-100 games a year player. So that being the case, there would be plenty of games for Madrigal to play 3rd. 

I doubt they'd sign both. With Bellinger, you're already at a bit of a log jam of 1b./Dh types. Morel, Busch, Bellinger, Wisdom already fit that mold. I don't think there's room for another 1b/DH only (Morel, Busch and Wisdom may not be only, but they probably are more only than not). It's likely one or the other. At some point, players won't want to sign knowing there's only many PA's available. 

[Backtobanks]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I doubt they'd sign both. With Bellinger, you're already at a bit of a log jam of 1b./Dh types. Morel, Busch, Bellinger, Wisdom already fit that mold. I don't think there's room for another 1b/DH only (Morel, Busch and Wisdom may not be only, but they probably are more only than not). It's likely one or the other. At some point, players won't want to sign knowing there's only many PA's available. 

I think Bellinger is viewed as a CF and not as a 1B/DH.  Also, I think Bellinger is confident enough that he's not threatened by competition from Morel Busch, or Wisdom.

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I doubt they'd sign both. With Bellinger, you're already at a bit of a log jam of 1b./Dh types. Morel, Busch, Bellinger, Wisdom already fit that mold. I don't think there's room for another 1b/DH only (Morel, Busch and Wisdom may not be only, but they probably are more only than not). It's likely one or the other. At some point, players won't want to sign knowing there's only many PA's available. 

I don’t think that the lack of AB would be an issue with Belt. I don’t think he would/should expect to be an everyday player. I am more concerned about 3rd base defense with that idea. 

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I think Bellinger is viewed as a CF and not as a 1B/DH.  Also, I think Bellinger is confident enough that he's not threatened by competition from Morel Busch, or Wisdom.

Opening Day? Sure. Not when Pete Crow-Armstrong comes up, though. And it's not about "confidence" it's about the amount of PA's the Cubs have. Notice, I didn't say sign "zero", I said one. One of them has a space, but the Cubs can only have 13 position players. Bellinger, Suzuki, Happ, PCA, Hoerner, Swanson, Gomes, Amaya, Busch, Morel make 10 and there isn't a third baseman in there. Assume Madrigal/.Wisdom become 11 and 12 and then you're down to one spot. You almost assuredly need someone else capable of playing OF, and having another in the "Well they're a DH" category probably won't work. 

Entering the offseason it was likely the Cubs added, maybe, two in the 1b/Dh area. Busch is one. I don't think they'll add three.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think that the lack of AB would be an issue with Belt. I don’t think he would/should expect to be an everyday player. I am more concerned about 3rd base defense with that idea. 

It would an issue with everyone who is expecting to play. Belt's a platoon 1b./DH who's 38. I don't think he's signing anywhere to be a 26th guy who plays once a week. I don't think he is under the impression he's "the guy" hitting 4th every day, but he's hit and played more than enough to not be a 4th or 5th wheel. With Bellinger (presumably), Busch, Morel and Wisdom all likely seeing 1b/DH time, there just isn't a real space for a fifth. 

Christopher Morel didn't hit LHP all that well last season and there's overlap with what he and Belt do. It's almost assuredly a "one or the other" when it comes to 1b./DH's at this point.

[Tim]

I'm going to work under the assumption that Boras eventually gets close to what he's looking for with the "big 4". If that's the case, I think I'd sign Stanek & Belt along with Liam Hendriks and call it an offseason. That should be doable under the tax. 

I want a lot of pen options for Counsell to work with. He's made that work to create wins for Milwaukee; let's give him the resources to do it here, too.

CF would have coverage from Tauchman, Canario + PCA. This is gambling on the prospects to produce, but I feel like it's a good gamble at this point. We could make the investment in Bellinger here, but I hate paying very large dollars to a likely marginal improvement.

1B/DH would be set between Belt, Busch & Morel

3B would be set between Madrigal, Busch, Morel & Mastro. We could make the investment in Chapman here, but see the comment on Bellinger.

Wisdom would be redundant and would get traded or released (or sent down if he's got an option left) if PCA makes the roster

----------

Obviously, if Jed wins the staring contest and any of the big 4 come cheaper than expected, sign me up.

[CubinNY]

In a clever attempt to jinx the situation, I"m thinking the Cubs would have signed Bellinger by now if they were seriously considering him. 

[Bertz]

I agree the team can/should add one of Belt/JDM/Soler.  Makes Morel a 10th man rather than having a dedicated spot, but that's fine.  If he wants an everyday spot he can learn to field or hit like a no doubt everyday DH.  Right now he does neither, and we shouldn't hold the team back on his regard.  Earn it.

I also think, if you do it this week, you insulate yourself from the Boras situation ending too badly.  If Bellinger/Chapman are going to hold out til March you can't just wait for them.  Signing e.g. Belt and missing out on the Boras guys makes this a bad offseason, missing out on the Boras guys and then having to go crawling to like Eddie Rosario or some horsefeathers for your "big bat" is catastrophic.

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I agree the team can/should add one of Belt/JDM/Soler.  Makes Morel a 10th man rather than having a dedicated spot, but that's fine.  If he wants an everyday spot he can learn to field or hit like a no doubt everyday DH.  Right now he does neither, and we shouldn't hold the team back on his regard.  Earn it.

I also think, if you do it this week, you insulate yourself from the Boras situation ending too badly.  If Bellinger/Chapman are going to hold out til March you can't just wait for them.  Signing e.g. Belt and missing out on the Boras guys makes this a bad offseason, missing out on the Boras guys and then having to go crawling to like Eddie Rosario or some horsefeathers for your "big bat" is catastrophic.

How many guys can you have who you don't trust to play defense anywhere? Like, Nico and Dansby are getting 150+ starts in a world without injuries, and they're seemingly already writing off Busch playing anywhere besides first. Whether or not Morel and Busch would be marginal, bad, awful, etc at third is kinda splitting hairs when I think the big picture is that they've consistently prioritized defense and handing one of them the majority of the starts out of the gates would go totally against that. Barring a Chapman signing, I can't see them cutting bait on either Wisdom or Madrigal, given Madrigal's probably superior production but clear injury history. So on the bench/DH you've got Amaya, Wisdom, Belt (to pick one of the names), Morel and....one outfield backup? Feel like they come up a little short in terms of defensive coverage. 

Belt would be a nice luxury, but him and Busch on the same roster makes a position-less Morel kinda redundant (or it makes Busch redundant, but I can't imagine that they would flip him so quickly). Would want that signing to come with a rethinking of the bench. 

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I agree the team can/should add one of Belt/JDM/Soler.  Makes Morel a 10th man rather than having a dedicated spot, but that's fine.  If he wants an everyday spot he can learn to field or hit like a no doubt everyday DH.  Right now he does neither, and we shouldn't hold the team back on his regard.  Earn it.

I also think, if you do it this week, you insulate yourself from the Boras situation ending too badly.  If Bellinger/Chapman are going to hold out til March you can't just wait for them.  Signing e.g. Belt and missing out on the Boras guys makes this a bad offseason, missing out on the Boras guys and then having to go crawling to like Eddie Rosario or some horsefeathers for your "big bat" is catastrophic.

I agree with this. Sign one of Soler/JDM/Belt now. Figure out the rest later. I also agree Morel would then have to figure out how to play 3rd or be traded. The one advantage Belt has over the other two is he can play 1st. So if they signed him, Busch or Morel can play 3rd. It does give the Cubs another option. He is also a lefty bat. If they are not going to sign Bellinger, which they still might, at least they added  lefty bat. I am honestly not concerned with if they did this and then sifned Bellinger, Wisdom loses a spot in the roster. That is fine with me. I also am not concerned about playing time for PCA. There are several things that can happen that would allow for PCA to come up, if it is warranted. Beside that maybe he can use another year at AAA. 

[Rob]

Yeah, absent a Morel trade, the Busch trade foreclosed a lot of possible avenues of roster construction.

The Cubs clearly believe in each of their bats. But we're going to have a very hard time adding a starting caliber 1B/DH type because we just don't have playing time for them.

If Busch or Morel shows up on day 1 of Spring Training and looks like they've been possessed by the ghost of Brooks Robinson, suddenly all bets are off. Or if there's a good trade for Morel out there. But until then, I think we need to accept that it's either going to be a lesser hitter or somebody with some positional coverage to fill the slot you all keep wanting to put JD Martinez / Soler / Belt in.

[Irrelevant Dude]

44 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

In a clever attempt to jinx the situation, I"m thinking the Cubs would have signed Bellinger by now if they were seriously considering him. 

It is impossible at this point to distinguish "The Cubs have a price in mind for Bellinger and are holding firm" from "The Cubs aren't interested in bringing him back," but it is entirely possible they have never seriously considered signing him.  They may simply not feel he is the right fit for their roster at the expected cost/years, plus Jed is probably already counting on that extra draft pick.  They would never come right out and say that though, both out of respect for Bellinger as well as to not upset the fanbase.  Their best case scenario may be that another team ends up paying Bellinger close to the $200M asking price and then the Cubs can use that as cover for why they didn't re-sign him.

[LBiittner]

11 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

It is impossible at this point to distinguish "The Cubs have a price in mind for Bellinger and are holding firm" from "The Cubs aren't interested in bringing him back," but it is entirely possible they have never seriously considered signing him.  They may simply not feel he is the right fit for their roster at the expected cost/years, plus Jed is probably already counting on that extra draft pick.  They would never come right out and say that though, both out of respect for Bellinger as well as to not upset the fanbase.  Their best case scenario may be that another team ends up paying Bellinger close to the $200M asking price and then the Cubs can use that as cover for why they didn't re-sign him.

I think legally they can't mention the player by name and say his skill set doesn't interest us. I quite possibly could be misremembering something I read?

[Bertz]

25 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

How many guys can you have who you don't trust to play defense anywhere? Like, Nico and Dansby are getting 150+ starts in a world without injuries, and they're seemingly already writing off Busch playing anywhere besides first. Whether or not Morel and Busch would be marginal, bad, awful, etc at third is kinda splitting hairs when I think the big picture is that they've consistently prioritized defense and handing one of them the majority of the starts out of the gates would go totally against that. Barring a Chapman signing, I can't see them cutting bait on either Wisdom or Madrigal, given Madrigal's probably superior production but clear injury history. So on the bench/DH you've got Amaya, Wisdom, Belt (to pick one of the names), Morel and....one outfield backup? Feel like they come up a little short in terms of defensive coverage. 

Belt would be a nice luxury, but him and Busch on the same roster makes a position-less Morel kinda redundant (or it makes Busch redundant, but I can't imagine that they would flip him so quickly). Would want that signing to come with a rethinking of the bench. 

There's enough room on the OD roster for both Bellinger and Belt.  The starting 13 position players to open the year would be:

Gomes, Busch, Hoerner, Swanson, Madrigal, Happ, Tauchman, Suzuki, Morel, Amaya, Wisdom, Bellinger, Belt

And with Hoerner/Bellinger's positional versatility I think you've got good defensive coverage.  There's definite redundancy with Busch/Morel/Wisdom, but let it work itself out.  I'm very okay getting into "make some uncomfortable decisions" mode.  All three guys have minor league options.  And of course there will be injuries.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

There's enough room on the OD roster for both Bellinger and Belt.  The starting 13 position players to open the year would be:

Gomes, Busch, Hoerner, Swanson, Madrigal, Happ, Tauchman, Suzuki, Morel, Amaya, Wisdom, Bellinger, Belt

And with Hoerner/Bellinger's positional versatility I think you've got good defensive coverage.  There's definite redundancy with Busch/Morel/Wisdom, but let it work itself out.  I'm very okay getting into "make some uncomfortable decisions" mode.  All three guys have minor league options.  And of course there will be injuries.

Totally fine with making these guys force their way into the lineup, but I think I'd go a different path with the money supposedly available and areas of need. That offensive roster gets rid of your most defensively versatile bench piece, puts your top prospect back in AAA where his path to major league playing time is basically forcing Busch into the already crowded Belt/Morel DH thing, and leaves Canario, Alcantara, Caissie very blocked. Wisdom is probably the first to go in that scenario, but then you're potentially leaving yourself with three guys who they trust to play three (important) defensive positions. 

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Opening Day? Sure. Not when Pete Crow-Armstrong comes up, though. And it's not about "confidence" it's about the amount of PA's the Cubs have. Notice, I didn't say sign "zero", I said one. One of them has a space, but the Cubs can only have 13 position players. Bellinger, Suzuki, Happ, PCA, Hoerner, Swanson, Gomes, Amaya, Busch, Morel make 10 and there isn't a third baseman in there. Assume Madrigal/.Wisdom become 11 and 12 and then you're down to one spot. You almost assuredly need someone else capable of playing OF, and having another in the "Well they're a DH" category probably won't work. 

Entering the offseason it was likely the Cubs added, maybe, two in the 1b/Dh area. Busch is one. I don't think they'll add three.

You have more confidence in PCA than I do and unless Busch really becomes an impact bat, they need a LH power bat.

[Rcal10]

44 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There's enough room on the OD roster for both Bellinger and Belt.  The starting 13 position players to open the year would be:

Gomes, Busch, Hoerner, Swanson, Madrigal, Happ, Tauchman, Suzuki, Morel, Amaya, Wisdom, Bellinger, Belt

And with Hoerner/Bellinger's positional versatility I think you've got good defensive coverage.  There's definite redundancy with Busch/Morel/Wisdom, but let it work itself out.  I'm very okay getting into "make some uncomfortable decisions" mode.  All three guys have minor league options.  And of course there will be injuries.

That is the 13 I would go with. I had mentioned a Morel for Burger deal with the thought Burger can play 3rd. They are pretty close in value. But it seems Burger isn’t much better at 3rd than Morel or Busch. Plus that complicates things. So without any trades, I would be fine with these 13. 

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

You have more confidence in PCA than I do and unless Busch really becomes an impact bat, they need a LH power bat.

The handringing on Pete Crow-Armstrong is a bit overdone right now. He's a true 80 grade glove, 80 grade speed, with 20+ home run power (he's been a .200 ISO every stop along the way and there wasn't a single qualified hitter who had a .200 ISO and didn't homer at least 20 times last year). I know there's some concerns about the hyper aggressive approach, however, he's got easy 2 win floor with glove/baserunning value/power. The ceiling is a little capped if he's going to struggle to refine that, but he hasn't turned 22 yet. I see no reason to believe he isn't on the Cubs from June through September next season (the Cubs love glove) and the moment that happens, Bellinger moves off the position. 

The Cubs could use a power hitting left handed bat, but I'm not sure Bellinger is that power bat. He's really not hitting the ball especially hard (even if we ignore the two strike approach). He's probably a ~25 home run threat more so than a 30+ HR threat moving forward unless something changes in his ability to hit the ball hard. So while I think the Cubs should find some way to keep Bellinger on a shorter/opt-out laden kind of a contract, I'm not desperate for him, either.