Cubs offseason chit chat...

[LBiittner]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Why would you want to give anything away for a 36 year old pitcher when you can sign a similar pitcher, in Moore, without giving any assets away? What do you like about Thielbar that has him so much better than Moore? 

He's been fairly solid for 3 seasons even though he's coming off injury. I feel since the Twins lost his arb. at 3.2m he might be a luxury they might not want to pay? Moore might possibly have a much higher opinion of his worth. And length of contract. There's a reason he's still on the market while other fringey pitchers have signed.

[mul21]

32 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah hoping they all get dumped in one easy spot when they wrap up the last couple teams here, but I've been having to go to individual team previews to find them for the time being. 

Chapman being the best option for 2024, a year we are very much trying to make the playoffs, and also the year we're currently in, is more or less the most important argument out there for signing him. And, realistically, he's still the best option for 2025 until proven otherwise.

No one seems to make this argument for Bellinger and PCA, even though Bellinger is only projected to provide one more win in 2024 than PCA, and PCA comes with having sustained success at AA and decent results at AAA. Chapman is projected for 3.6 next year and we shouldn't sign him to keep a spot open for a guy with 70 AA PAs in 2025, Bellinger is projected for 2.7 and is our best long term option for CF even though we have a guy already projected for 1.7 in 2024? Or is the argument to sign neither?

My thought process on Bellinger over Chapman is kind of 2 pronged.  First, the offensive downturn from Chapman last year is a bit scary and while Belli may not have great projections (I'll be surprised if he's not closer to 3.5 assuming health in 2024) and some concern with the hard hit rate etc., he's still likely to get more of his total WAR from offense than defense and offense is really where the team is deficient at the moment.  I think the other piece is that the offensive gap between what the Cubs may get from the current 3B options vs Chapman held up against Belli vs PCA is much smaller as well.

[Tryptamine]

If they Cubs do go Chapman over Bellinger,  they better pray that Busch hits.

[Irrelevant Dude]

11 minutes ago, mul21 said:

My thought process on Bellinger over Chapman is kind of 2 pronged.

For me it's all about the flexibility.  Chapman can play 3B and... that's about it, with the exception of DH.  

Bellinger is good in CF, but can also shift to LF or RF based on injuries or other openings on the roster.  Then he can also play a solid 1B.

I'm not worried about Bellinger blocking PCA or other guys in the system, because he is versatile and there will always be a place for him.  Chapman on the other hand could be a guy that ends of occupying a spot that the Cubs really need to free up in a year or two when/if Shaw is ready, or if Busch ends up being decent at 3B.  I just don't like the idea of a long term contract for Chapman when there could very well be better, and cheaper alternatives in the near future.  If he wants to sign a 1 or 2 year deal, then sure, go for it!

[WhyCantWeWin]

42 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I'm rather interested in Caleb Thielbar @3.2m contract for a surplus youngster. 

I'm not a fan of trading prospects for bullpen arms that aren't closers. But if the price is right I wouldn't complain 

[CubinNY]

Has there been any rumors or are we running here? It seems like a false choice. 

[squally1313]

17 minutes ago, mul21 said:

My thought process on Bellinger over Chapman is kind of 2 pronged.  First, the offensive downturn from Chapman last year is a bit scary and while Belli may not have great projections (I'll be surprised if he's not closer to 3.5 assuming health in 2024) and some concern with the hard hit rate etc., he's still likely to get more of his total WAR from offense than defense and offense is really where the team is deficient at the moment.  I think the other piece is that the offensive gap between what the Cubs may get from the current 3B options vs Chapman held up against Belli vs PCA is much smaller as well.

Yeah I mean, if you simply disagree with the projections, sure, I get it. Which is not a shot at all, I probably get annoying just blindly referencing them, but figure it's a common ground place to start. Splitting the difference between 2023 production and 2024 projections you gets you to essentially equal players, though Chapman pulls a little more value from defense (again, depending on where you rate both guys on both sides of the ball). On the Bellinger argument you have age and flexibility. On the Chapman side you have a cheaper/shorter contract (most likely), and the fact that I'd rather 'block' Shaw/Murray/etc at third than PCA in center. 

Your last sentence, to me, kinda comes down to whether you can include Morel and Busch as 'current 3B options'. Wisdom/Madrigal v PCA/Tauchman doesn't really inspire me too much one way or the other, especially given the theoretical elite defense PCA brings to the table.

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Has there been any rumors or are we running here? It seems like a false choice. 

If you're talking Thielbar, it's just me trying to come from left field like Jeds been known to do.

Besides, we've been rehashing the same old names beyond nausea. I can only stomach so many Morel, Naylor, Bieber, jd davis, Polanco, moore, m.chapman, Hoskins glasnow ohtani mentions in one lifetime

[squally1313]

18 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

For me it's all about the flexibility.  Chapman can play 3B and... that's about it, with the exception of DH.  

 

To be fair, I don't know if it's that Chapman 'can't' play first or second as much as there's never been any reason to play him anywhere besides third, a premium defensive position where he gives elite defense. Obviously it doesn't help you in the outfield, so Bellinger gets slight credit for being able to play 4 spots. 

[Tryptamine]

It blows my mind that we have less than a month until pitchers and catchers report and yet 5 of the top 10 FA remain unsigned and around 25 of the top 50.

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

It blows my mind that we have less than a month until pitchers and catchers report and yet 5 of the top 10 FA remain unsigned and around 25 of the top 50.

I wonder if quality just doesn't match the asking price from previous seasons?

And not to blame the boras corporation, but it just seems like he's attached to everybody worth a darn this year. 

[LBiittner]

I do recall someone here mentioned once the offseason began that Belli probably wouldn't sign before ST was well underway

[Irrelevant Dude]

31 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

And not to blame the boras corporation, but it just seems like he's attached to everybody worth a darn this year. 

I know the general consensus is that Boras' guys are going to get their money, but what if they don't?  What if the market just isn't there for his clients and, despite his best efforts, many of them end up signing deals well under their expectations?  Maybe this could be the start of Boras losing some of his grip on the MLB playerbase.  I don't necessarily have anything against Boras, but I do think it might be a good thing to have a little more variety in representation.

[Bertz]

I think Chapman/Bellinger each have pros/cons.  

Pros for Chapman

- You can much more safely assume he's a 3.5 WAR impact player

- While it didn't manifest in dongs in 2023, he's got MUCH more power than Bellinget

- I think most of us feel better about Tauchman than any of the motley crew of 3B currently on the roster

- The over/under is probably right around $100M as opposed to $150M for Bellinger

Cons:

- His offensive skillset, i.e. being a RHH hitter with + power, lots of K's, and a giant hole at the top of the zone, is very redundant on this team.  He's more or less Wisdom with a few more walks and a lot more defense

- He's 2.5 years older than Bellinger

- Bellinger having been here for a year proved that he's a fit with the coaches/players/city.  There is a higher chance of Chapman going all Heyward on us just because we don't *know* thatt all of those soft factors are going to line up right

- Bellinger seems likely to gracefully slide down the defensive spectrum from being a CF to a plus defensive corner guy.  Chapman’s value is likely to fall off a cliff when his defense at 3rd goes, because the logical next step is 1B

I think broadly I like Chapman a little more for 2024, but think Bellinger's a much much better fit beyond.

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I know the general consensus is that Boras' guys are going to get their money, but what if they don't?  What if the market just isn't there for his clients and, despite his best efforts, many of them end up signing deals well under their expectations?  Maybe this could be the start of Boras losing some of his grip on the MLB playerbase.  I don't necessarily have anything against Boras, but I do think it might be a good thing to have a little more variety in representation.

I wonder if Chapman back to Toronto 4 yr / 100m. Is still on the table? Boras Corp just trying to milk every last cent , which is his job, I guess.

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think Chapman/Bellinger each have pros/cons.  

Pros for Chapman

- You can much more safely assume he's a 3.5 WAR impact player

- While it didn't manifest in dongs in 2023, he's got MUCH more power than Bellinget

- I think most of us feel better about Tauchman than any of the motley crew of 3B currently on the roster

- The over/under is probably right around $100M as opposed to $150M for Bellinger

Cons:

- His offensive skillset, i.e. being a RHH hitter with + power, lots of K's, and a giant hole at the top of the zone, is very redundant on this team.  He's more or less Wisdom with a few more walks and a lot more defense

- He's 2.5 years older than Bellinger

- Bellinger having been here for a year proved that he's a fit with the coaches/players/city.  There is a higher chance of Chapman going all Heyward on us just because we don't *know* thatt all of those soft factors are going to line up right

- Bellinger seems likely to gracefully slide down the defensive spectrum from being a CF to a plus defensive corner guy.  Chapman’s value is likely to fall off a cliff when his defense at 3rd goes, because the logical next step is 1B

I think broadly I like Chapman a little more for 2024, but think Bellinger's a much much better fit beyond.

If I had to chose one or the other I would hope they go Bellinger. However, why not both? Even if in the high end they cost $52M a year they might only then sign a one arm. If that arm is 6M where does that have the payroll land? It would be over the first layer and under the next one. They have around $40M coming off the books next year. They can do over this year and be back under the next. 
I highly doubt they do this. I realize that. But the point is, they could. 

[LBiittner]

6 minutes ago, username said:

Very random thought, but the recent Boras talk made me think --- has there ever been an agent inducted into the Hall of Fame in a sport?  I'm guessing no.  But if there ever were to be one, certainly it'd have to be Scott, no?  

There have been many from mlb, NBA, nfl that have gone into the hall of shame for unscrupulous behavior while handling athletes finances.

Probably why boras Corp has a long list of clientele. He's been very reputable. (I think)

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If I had to chose one or the other I would hope they go Bellinger. However, why not both? Even if in the high end they cost $52M a year they might only then sign a one arm. If that arm is 6M where does that have the payroll land? It would be over the first layer and under the next one. They have around $40M coming off the books next year. They can do over this year and be back under the next. 
I highly doubt they do this. I realize that. But the point is, they could. 

From your keyboard to God's eyes !!!

[LBiittner]

I had a nightmare that matt carpenter was one of the bats jed was referring to.

Thank You cardinals for squelching those nightmared sleeps

[Bertz]

25 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If I had to chose one or the other I would hope they go Bellinger. However, why not both? Even if in the high end they cost $52M a year they might only then sign a one arm. If that arm is 6M where does that have the payroll land? It would be over the first layer and under the next one. They have around $40M coming off the books next year. They can do over this year and be back under the next. 
I highly doubt they do this. I realize that. But the point is, they could. 

How many non-elite players do you really want locked up long term?  There's an opportunity cost to that path not just with dollars but roster spots.

[CubinNY]

If the choice is Bellinger vs. Chapman, the choice is easy. Bellinger, he's younger, plays a premium defense and a premium position, and is a better hitter. He's more versatile. I honestly, don't know what the debate is about. 

[Bertz]

Cool, now bring me Stephenson and/or Robertson 

 

[CubinNY]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Cool, now bring me Stephenson and/or Robertson 

 

Houston is going to make one last run before they dismantle 

[squally1313]

10 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If the choice is Bellinger vs. Chapman, the choice is easy. Bellinger, he's younger, plays a premium defense and a premium position, and is a better hitter. He's more versatile. I honestly, don't know what the debate is about. 

• Younger - Yes, agreed
• Plays a premium defense - He was a negative defender in center last year per FG. In 2022, when he was a positive defender, and played entirely CF, he was the 10th best center fielder in the game defensively. Chapman was 11th in 2022, 7th in 2023. Would argue Chapman is a more valuable defender.
• Premium position - League wide, Centerfield last year had a .249/,316/.414, .316 wOBA line, 3B had a .244/.316/.404 line, so you could argue third is a more premium position.
• Better hitter - Obviously the main debate. Bellinger put up clearly superior numbers in 2023 and has far surpassed that in the past. On the other hand, Bellinger has had 4 good months of offensive baseball in the last three years. Batted ball data loves Chapman, and he's projected to be the better hitter next year. 
• More versatile - Yes, agreed, though it's not like Chapman has ever proven himself unplayable anywhere else, he has 10 innings not at third in his career. Probably can't play short, but who knows on the right side of the infield. 

[Bertz]

16 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Houston is going to make one last run before they dismantle 

That's my read too.  Only question is if they do a full teardown next winter or at the '25 trade deadline.