Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Illiterate Scholar]

I've been thinking about that as well. Specifically if the Cubs actually prefer Chapman over Bellinger because of batted ball metrics and realistic internal options at 3B vs CF (which I think could be the case), then Cody might be screwed, relatively speaking.

Edited January 8, 2024 by Illiterate Scholar

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

I've been thinking about that as well. Specifically if the Cubs actually prefer Chapman over Bellinger because of batted ball metrics and realistic internal options at 3B vs CF (which I think could be the case), then Cody might be screwed, relatively speaking.

Maybe, but they need a left handed bat. And I am not sure they want to lock up 3rd base for 5 years. Bellinger. At least, gives them multiple positions he could play. I fuesss if they went Chapman then traded for a lefty bat(Naylor) that could work.

[chibears55]

58 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

No numbers and what is "significant" is subjective.  But probably important to note.

I'll take all 4, but I guess the question is are they looking to add one or all 4, and how significant was their offers

 

[Rcal10]

28 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I'll take all 4, but I guess the question is are they looking to add one or all 4, and how significant was their offers

 

Pretty sure you know it isn’t all 4. 

[Stratos]

Well it seems the guys Jed is interested in are mainly Boras clients and they'll only sign when Boras waits until all the other bigger players are off the board so he controls the market.  Maybe things kick up once Imanaga signs, unless Boras waits for Stroman to sign too.

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Stratos said:

Well it seems the guys Jed is interested in are mainly Boras clients and they'll only sign when Boras waits until all the other bigger players are off the board so he controls the market.  Maybe things kick up once Imanaga signs, unless Boras waits for Stroman to sign too.

Which is funny in a way because Boras complains alot about the Cubs not being players and when the supposedly do have offers on the table he waits it out

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Stratos said:

Well it seems the guys Jed is interested in are mainly Boras clients and they'll only sign when Boras waits until all the other bigger players are off the board so he controls the market.  Maybe things kick up once Imanaga signs, unless Boras waits for Stroman to sign too.

Stroman likely will be close to the last man standing of the mid range SP available 

[Derwood]

On 1/7/2024 at 9:55 PM, Derwood said:

"Hernandez's $23.5million will only count as three dollars and twenty-seven cents against the cap for reasons"

 

 

I was joking, I swear!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I guess there's no real downside because it's not like the Dodgers are going to struggle with cash flow, but it seems a bit contrived to defer a third of Teoscar's deal for 6-15 years just to save like 2 million in LT penalties when you're not close to any threshold for his one year.

[Hrubes20]

12 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I guess there's no real downside because it's not like the Dodgers are going to struggle with cash flow, but it seems a bit contrived to defer a third of Teoscar's deal for 6-15 years just to save like 2 million in LT penalties when you're not close to any threshold for his one year.

Not close, YET.  Would anyone at all be surprised if the Dodgers signed another big money FA?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Hrubes20 said:

Not close, YET.  Would anyone at all be surprised if the Dodgers signed another big money FA?

I think you're misunderstanding what I'm getting at.  Even with Hernandez's slight dip in LT value, the Dodgers are now 65 million above the LT line, they'd have to drop at least 5 million more in payroll in order to get under the 60 million threshold that would lower the surcharge.  I very much doubt they're going to get there or even attempt to do so, which means the only upshot to deferring Hernandez's 1 year deal is to try to save a couple million in LT penalties. Seems like a lot of complexity to try to save ~2 million when you're paying much more than that in penalties regardless.  Hernandez might've just accepted 1/21 straight anyway!

[Bertz]

I was reading Grant Brisbees article this morning, and it's a "what if the season started today" sort of roster analysis for the Giants.  This stood out to me

Quote

 

If the Giants sign Matt Chapman

It would be possible to keep J.D. Davis on the roster and have him focus more on being a DH. That’s kind of a shame, considering his defensive progress last season, but he pairs nicely with Conforto there.

The bigger problem is that Wilmer Flores also pairs nicely with Conforto, and he’s coming off one of the better DH performances in franchise history. If Chapman’s on the roster, Flores and Davis would be extra redundant, and you should expect Davis to be traded. He’d be a popular trade target for more than a couple of teams.

 

JD Davis isn't great, he's basically Patrick Wisdom if he wasn't such an extreme launch angle guy.  HOWEVER, the Giants pulled some black magic last winter and turned him into a very good 3B.  As we know Wisdom’s defensive prowess has cratered the last two years.  Davis and Madrigal would IMO be a good 3B tandem if we're not trusting Morel there.

[Backtobanks]

How about Josh Bell as a trade candidate.  He has a negative trade value because of the final year of his contract.  Maybe something like Cabrera + Bell for Mervis + Killian?  The Marlins would love to get rid of Bell's salary.

[PackLandVA]

1 hour ago, Backtobanks said:

How about Josh Bell as a trade candidate.  He has a negative trade value because of the final year of his contract.  Maybe something like Cabrera + Bell for Mervis + Killian?  The Marlins would love to get rid of Bell's salary.

And maybe the Marlins throw in cash. Half his salary saves the Marlins over $8 million.  Or maybe they add Bell and his full contract to a Luzardo deal.

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, Backtobanks said:

How about Josh Bell as a trade candidate.  He has a negative trade value because of the final year of his contract.  Maybe something like Cabrera + Bell for Mervis + Killian?  The Marlins would love to get rid of 

How do the Marlins benefit?

Does Bell equal Jeds intelligent spending?

NOPE 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Backtobanks said:

How about Josh Bell as a trade candidate.  He has a negative trade value because of the final year of his contract.  Maybe something like Cabrera + Bell for Mervis + Killian?  The Marlins would love to get rid of Bell's salary.

I mentioned him a few pages back.  Bell would be a good way to defray the cost of one of their fun pitchers IMO.

[LBiittner]

15 minutes ago, username said:

Cubs social media team going for a Lollapalooza approach here.  The headliners are the horsefeathers GM and Manager.  Yikes . 

This is such a laughable advertisement, I'm crying here right now.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Unless I’m missing something the easy answer is 1/21 is a whole lot more money than 1/23 paid out over nearly 2 decades 

It is not, Hernandez's 1/23.5 with the announced deferrals has a PV of 20.43 million, per Fangraphs.

[Bertz]

Craig Mish is, as far as I know, the most plugged in reporter for the Marlins.  So this is pretty meaningful

If you're you're wondering if the Marlins are willing to trade someone sounds like the answer is probably yes

 

[chopsx9]

13 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It is not, Hernandez's 1/23.5 with the announced deferrals has a PV of 20.43 million, per Fangraphs.

Is that not for LT calculations?  They are paying 15M this year and the remaining 8+M starting in 2030.  So I'm assuming it's more about cash flow relief  -  but I'd agree that it seems more effort than its worth.  Of course its not my money.

[thawv]

20 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

Is that not for LT calculations?  They are paying 15M this year and the remaining 8+M starting in 2030.  So I'm assuming it's more about cash flow relief  -  but I'd agree that it seems more effort than its worth.  Of course its not my money.

The CBT hit is 20.5 million.  Yes, they must be looking for cash on hand relief, and not so much CBT room.

 

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

How do the Marlins benefit?

Does Bell equal Jeds intelligent spending?

NOPE 

He's got 1 year @ $16.5 million, Alonzo makes over $20 million (and will cost $30 to extend) but he's not available, and Hoskins will probably cost $30 million over 2 years.  If Jed really wants to go cheap, there's Garrett Cooper for probably $4 million per year.

[LBiittner]

12 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

He's got 1 year @ $16.5 million, Alonzo makes over $20 million (and will cost $30 to extend) but he's not available, and Hoskins will probably cost $30 million over 2 years.  If Jed really wants to go cheap, there's Garrett Cooper for probably $4 million per year.

That trade proposal makes no sense. Jed doesn't want a 16m Bell. And Killian and  Mervis are currently both turds based on current mlb performances and will remain turds until they prove otherwise. And for the Cubs to also gain Cabrera in this deal is laughably so one sided in the Cubs direction.

[LBiittner]

Get ready folks, bleacher nation is kinda talking up drew smyly as a Cub starter. 

Who needs imanaga? We Got smyly !

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

That trade proposal makes no sense. Jed doesn't want a 16m Bell. And Killian and  Mervis are currently both turds based on current mlb performances and will remain turds until they prove otherwise. And for the Cubs to also gain Cabrera in this deal is laughably so one sided in the Cubs direction.

That deal isn’t nearly as one sided as you suggest. Bell has negative value with that salary and his ground ball rate. He sucks. I would rather play Mervis at 1st. Sure, Cabrera is decent, but he isn’t that valuable either. Maybe Killian doesn’t get the deal done with Mervis, but I wouldn’t give much more than him. Maybe Thompson. Marlins cut payroll. That is their motive. Cubs get Cabrera. That is their motive. As for Bell and Mervis, I think the Marlins get the better option and definitely get the better value.