Cubs offseason chit chat...

[LBiittner]

Cubs target: Bellinger

Others lurking : Giants, Jays. Mariners, Angels aaaand Phillies.

The Phillies quite possibly are the biggest threat. Imagine their batting lineup with Belli inserted? 

 

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Cubs target: Bellinger

Others lurking : Giants, Jays. Mariners, Angels aaaand Phillies.

The Phillies quite possibly are the biggest threat. Imagine their batting lineup with Belli inserted? 

 

You mentioning the Heyman article on Bellinger? That one felt highly influenced by Boras leaks, IMO.

[LBiittner]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

You mentioning the Heyman article on Bellinger? That one felt highly influenced by Boras leaks, IMO.

I hope it's Boras driven. 

If you consider Bellinger will go into the 2024 season at age 27, that's exactly the type to make part of the foundation here, if they're in a win now mode.

[WhyCantWeWin]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

I hope it's Boras driven. 

If you consider Bellinger will go into the 2024 season at age 27, that's exactly the type to make part of the foundation here, if they're in a win now mode.

He's 29 this july

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

He's 29 this july

Well poop.

If his birthday is after July 4, it's considered his age 28 season?

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Cubs target: Bellinger

Others lurking : Giants, Jays. Mariners, Angels aaaand Phillies.

The Phillies quite possibly are the biggest threat. Imagine their batting lineup with Belli inserted? 

 

The Giants are the only team I could see in on Bellinger from that list.

[Stratos]

20 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Well poop.

If his birthday is after July 4, it's considered his age 28 season?

28 is still younger than the vast majority of FA's.  If it's a 6 year deal then he's signed through age 33 (well, would turn 34 a few months before the contract ends), which isn't bad at all.  Given the age and how the Cubs avoid post-prime years like the plague (and rightly so) the Cubs will want him more than a 31 y/o like Chapman unless Chapman comes on a lower AAV and only on, say, a 3 year deal, which probably doesn't happen anyways.

[Jason Ross]

Per Jon Heyman: 

"J.D. Martinez looks like a possible fit for the Angels and D-Backs. He’d also make sense for the Mets. It’d be nice to finally have a legit middle-of-the-order guy to protect Pete Alonso. Keep hearing the Cubs will be after Alonso when he’s free."

[Bertz]

Per Mooney

Quote

 

Barring a last-minute reversal, a league source said Chicago is not seen as a likely landing spot for Shota Imanaga, the Japanese pitcher who will likely receive a contract worth at least $100 million, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

Among the top free agents represented by Boras, Jordan Montgomery is viewed as a better potential fit for the Cubs than Blake Snell, per a team source, though it’s unclear how far Hoyer’s group is willing to go in that pursuit of pitching.

 

 

[Michael Busch Light]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

The Giants are the only team I could see in on Bellinger from that list.

Jays probably as well.  Definitely won't be the Mariners.  They have ****** ownership that is cheap like us. 

[Michael Busch Light]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Per Jon Heyman: 

"J.D. Martinez looks like a possible fit for the Angels and D-Backs. He’d also make sense for the Mets. It’d be nice to finally have a legit middle-of-the-order guy to protect Pete Alonso. Keep hearing the Cubs will be after Alonso when he’s free."

Jed is already onto the 2024 free agent class. 

[Jason Ross]

Per Mooney in an article from the Athletic today:

 "A league source said Chicago is not seen as a likely landing spot for Shoto Imanaga" 

"Jordan Montgomery is viewed as a better potential fit than Blake Snell, per a team source, though it's unclear how far the Hoyer group is willing to go in that pursuit of pitching" 

Mentions that if the Cubs would rather go depth, they would be fits for Manaea and Paxton. Matt Moore is a player they have long liked.

[Stratos]

51 minutes ago, Javy Bystro said:

Jays probably as well.  Definitely won't be the Mariners.  They have ****** ownership that is cheap like us. 

Jays just signed Kiermeier or however you spell it

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Per Mooney in an article from the Athletic today:

 "A league source said Chicago is not seen as a likely landing spot for Shoto Imanaga" 

"Jordan Montgomery is viewed as a better potential fit than Blake Snell, per a team source, though it's unclear how far the Hoyer group is willing to go in that pursuit of pitching" 

Mentions that if the Cubs would rather go depth, they would be fits for Manaea and Paxton. Matt Moore is a player they have long liked.

Great!!! News of the Cubs just keeps getting better!!!! Can’t wait to see who slots in behind Steele. A real battle for that #2 spot between 3, #4 starters. Awesome! 

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Jays just signed Kiermeier or however you spell it

They also aren't out on Bellinger. Kiermaier is only on a one year, roughly $10m deal. That can easily be converted into a 4th OF'ers role. Rumor is there they're still interested in a DH/OF type and Bellinger fits into that role just fine. It could be they prefer a Joc Pederson type, but Bellinger isn't out in Toronto. I think they're less desperate for a Bellinger with Kiermaier, but he's not a major roadblock either.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Great!!! News of the Cubs just keeps getting better!!!! Can’t wait to see who slots in behind Steele. A real battle for that #2 spot between 3, #4 starters. Awesome! 

If there's a positive, Joel Sherman was talking about guys like Braxton Garrett, Mitch Keller and Tarik Skubal being available. We've heard for a while the Cubs are interested in potential trades. With Bieber being off the market, there are young, controllable, and frankly, better than the FA offering arms out there. 

So while I think it's easy to be negative (and those intrusive thoughts are definitely in my head) where the Cubs decide they'd rather not pay Montgomery/Imanaga/Snell and instead just decide that Sean Manaea is the answer, there's alternatives in which the Cubs have maybe the best 1-2 lefty punch in the league with Steele and Skubal in 2024, too.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

They also aren't out on Bellinger. Kiermaier is only on a one year, roughly $10m deal. That can easily be converted into a 4th OF'ers role. Rumor is there they're still interested in a DH/OF type and Bellinger fits into that role just fine.

Last year was a record high payroll that went into the LT, and they're less than 17M from that mark now.  They aren't so devoid of other avenues for improvement that I really doubt they're going to be in for someone guaranteed to make 20+ AAV.  If they did, a Chapman reunion would seem more likely for multiple reasons.

[Rob]

I would fall all over myself to pick up Tarik Skubal if he's available.

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Last year was a record high payroll that went into the LT, and they're less than 17M from that mark now.  They aren't so devoid of other avenues for improvement that I really doubt they're going to be in for someone guaranteed to make 20+ AAV.  If they did, a Chapman reunion would seem more likely for multiple reasons.

Eh, I'm not sure I agree. While history suggests Toronto won't go over the LT, we can use these same consternations for most teams. However, Toronto is entering what may be the end of their current window with a few of their players inching closer to FA, others getting older...watching the Jays go over the first line of the LT for another year (only to pay a relatively small amount of LT) to maximize their run isn't going to be the craziest story of the offseason. 

If the Cubs sign, say, a SP to a deal of $25m AAV (in that Snell, Imanaga, Montgomery level...) then the same worries and history of not going over the LT can basically be applied here. While it would seem the Cubs are more likely to do it this year, history of avoidance (much like the Jays) suggests that to be less of a slam dunk. 

I wouldn't call Toronto a front runner for Cody Bellinger. I also don't think they're entirely out, either. At this point, trying to figure out who's actually the front runner on Bellinger seems pretty murky all things considered. There are a few teams he makes most sense for, others who have money to spend, etc... 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

If there's a positive, Joel Sherman was talking about guys like Braxton Garrett, Mitch Keller and Tarik Skubal being available. We've heard for a while the Cubs are interested in potential trades. With Bieber being off the market, there are young, controllable, and frankly, better than the FA offering arms out there. 

So while I think it's easy to be negative (and those intrusive thoughts are definitely in my head) where the Cubs decide they'd rather not pay Montgomery/Imanaga/Snell and instead just decide that Sean Manaea is the answer, there's alternatives in which the Cubs have maybe the best 1-2 lefty punch in the league with Steele and Skubal in 2024, too.

But at what cost are those guys available. That is going to hit the prospect capital hard for any of them. I really don’t see why the Tigers would deal Skubal unless they got major league talent back. They could win that division. Sorry, I just don’t see it. I think just like the cost of free agents is too high, the trade costs will be too high too.

Edited January 5, 2024 by Rcal10

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But at what cost are those guys available. That is going to hit the prospect capital hard for any of them. I really don’t see why the Rigers would deal Skubal unless they got major league talent back. They could win that division. Sorry, I just don’t see it. I think just like the cost of free agents is too high, the trade costs will be too high too.

Again, I think those are the "intrusive thoughts" type of a thing. Why would he be available? Well, the Tigers have a handful of young SP's in their system. Jackson Jobe looks awesome, Wilmer Flores debuted last year at 22. It isn't as if they don't have players. This also isn't the first time his name has popped up: prior to his injury last year, his name was a guy that was popping up as "maybe available", then he got hurt. 

If you offered up a deal that included Pete Crow-Armstrong (who in Comerica Park with his defense?), Jordan Wicks and another big name in the system, I think you're starting to develop a trade. I won't go all in and say I can come up with specifics or anything, but the Tigers are probably listening on a pitcher who's about to hit arbitration and has thrown 200 innings in the last two years. The pitcher Skubal is, is seemingly great. But Detroit does have some pitchers in the system and might be enticed into cashing him in as he hits arbitration and with the arm injuries.

I'm not saying he is fully available or that'll happen, only explaining why I think he's not off the table by any means. You can do the same things with Mitch Keller and Braxton Garrett. I just used him as one name Sherman mentioned as available.

[We Got The Whole 9]

13 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Per Mooney in an article from the Athletic today:

 "A league source said Chicago is not seen as a likely landing spot for Shoto Imanaga" 

"Jordan Montgomery is viewed as a better potential fit than Blake Snell, per a team source, though it's unclear how far the Hoyer group is willing to go in that pursuit of pitching" 

Mentions that if the Cubs would rather go depth, they would be fits for Manaea and Paxton. Matt Moore is a player they have long liked.

Montgomery is a better fit since he isn't attached to a pick. He's a pretty reliable strike-thrower and feels like a good bet to provide commensurate value to his contract. 

 

I didn't realize just how bad imanaga's FB tendencies are. His GB rate last year would be in the bottom 3 of the MLB. The KBB is definitely solid but that's a good reason to hesitate on signing him. 

 

I still wish they would just sign JD or Belt rather than trade for Alonso.

[Bertz]

The question on the pitching front is how realistically available are some of these names we've heard a little bit about.  Framber Valdez and Tarik Skubal for instance are better than any FA SP that is or was on the market this winter (no, I'm not forgetting about Yamamoto).  Jesus Luzardo is comparable to the three lefties on the market right now and will make about as much over the next three years as any of the FAs will make per annum. 

I'm not too worried about Manaea or James Paxton being the sole guy.  Jed's far too risk averse for that.  Also if you read the article those names were brought up in more of a "these guys are also Boras clients" way than "these are the guys Jed's actually chasing" way.  The entire theme of the article is that the offseason goes through Boras.  I am getting a little worried that we are just going to re-up with Stroman though.

[CubinNY]

9 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I still wish they would just sign JD or Belt rather than trade for Alonso.

I don't think Alonso is available for a trade. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

The question on the pitching front is how realistically available are some of these names we've heard a little bit about.  Framber Valdez and Tarik Skubal for instance are better than any FA SP that is or was on the market this winter (no, I'm not forgetting about Yamamoto).  Jesus Luzardo is comparable to the three lefties on the market right now and will make about as much over the next three years as any of the FAs will make per annum. 

I'm not too worried about Manaea or James Paxton being the sole guy.  Jed's far too risk averse for that.  Also if you read the article those names were brought up in more of a "these guys are also Boras clients" way than "these are the guys Jed's actually chasing" way.  The entire theme of the article is that the offseason goes through Boras.  I am getting a little worried that we are just going to re-up with Stroman though.

With Stroman, you can expect MORP production and he is suited to start a playoff game. I don't have much issue with signing him, even though his IP has been dragged down by injuries.

 

But I've read several blurbs where it sounds like he has several offers and the Cubs appear to be ready to part ways.