Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rob]

12 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

My apologies to all. 

No worries. You're newer here. You'll adjust to the vibe. My apologies as well -- I'm sure I didn't respond as kindly as I should have.

14 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

There were times when Bellinger tried to do TOO much at first base.  For example, ranging really far to his right and turning what would have been a semi-routine play for Hoerner into a difficult play for Bellinger and the pitcher covering first.  Those are plays he would probably learn to let go with more experience, but regardless, you aren't maximizing his value if you are using him at first base full-time.

If memory serves, the positional adjustment from CF to 1B is on the order of 15 runs. So if we have the choice of running a Bellinger type out there as an average CF or 1B, we gain approximately 1.5 wins by making him a CF. It's probably a bit more in this case, as defensive statistics generally paint him as a better CF than a 1B -- though that could change with more reps.

I'm just not sure how we improve the team at this point. We need to add some position players, but the free agent cupboard is pretty bare. Bellinger is solid, but he's going to be priced like a good defensive CF. And we've already got one of those in PCA. So if we sign Bellinger, we need to either shuffle people around into different positions (hence the Happ to 1B idea), or trade PCA. Chapman is probably a decent upgrade at 3B, but the price scares me given some of the underlying metrics.

I said coming into this offseason that we probably needed to add about 8 fWAR for me to feel good about the offseason. Normally that's not a big problem when a team has such glaring holes as we do. But the FA market just doesn't line up with our needs this year, and the trade block isn't much better.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Rob

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Rob said:

No worries. You're newer here. You'll adjust to the vibe. My apologies as well -- I'm sure I didn't respond as kindly as I should have.

If memory serves, the positional adjustment from CF to 1B is on the order of 15 runs. So if we have the choice of running a Bellinger type out there as an average CF or 1B, we gain approximately 1.5 wins by making him a CF. It's probably a bit more in this case, as defensive statistics generally paint him as a better CF than a 1B -- though that could change with more reps.

I'm just not sure how we improve the team at this point. We need to add some position players, but the free agent cupboard is pretty bare. Bellinger is solid, but he's going to be priced like a good defensive CF. And we've already got one of those in PCA. So if we sign Bellinger, we need to either shuffle people around into different positions (hence the Happ to 1B idea), or trade PCA. Chapman is probably a decent upgrade at 3B, but the price scares me given some of the underlying metrics.

I said coming into this offseason that we probably needed to add about 8 fWAR for me to feel good about the offseason. Normally that's not a big problem when a team has such glaring holes as we do. But the FA market just doesn't line up with our needs this year, and the trade block isn't much better.

Cubs have a good defensive centerfielder who hasn’t proved he can hit. And he could bring a lot back in a trade. Not saying they should go the route of signing Bellinger, but if they do he has to play center and his price has to come down some. If they signed Bellinger and then traded PCA you can probably get something starting with Naylor and Bieber from the Guardians, Glasnow and Lowe from the Rays, Cease+ from the Sox or a Marlin pitcher + from the marlins. Trades may include additional players. Just suggesting what PCA is worth having a conversation about. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t like the idea of Happ at 1st. But if the Cubs  got a big bat that played the corner outfield and needed him to move to 1st, he is moving to first, ego and all. 

I'd rather they trade Happ for a pitcher or even a good prospect.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, chibears55 said:

I'd rather they trade Happ for a pitcher or even a good prospect.

Happ has a NTC. He's not being traded.

[Rob]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Happ has a NTC. He's not being traded.

It's unlikely. But it's not impossible. If he was going to a juggernaut of a team -- LAD or ATL or wherever -- I could totally see him waiving the NTC. He also grew up in Pennsylvania, so I could see him going lateral to a team like the Phillies.

That said, I don't see any obvious fits. And speculating on three-team proposals gets way out there.

[Irrelevant Dude]

9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Happ has a NTC. He's not being traded.

It's crazy to me that Hoyer is giving Happ-level players NTC's.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Rob said:

It's unlikely. But it's not impossible. If he was going to a juggernaut of a team -- LAD or ATL or wherever -- I could totally see him waiving the NTC. He also grew up in Pennsylvania, so I could see him going lateral to a team like the Phillies.

That said, I don't see any obvious fits. And speculating on three-team proposals gets way out there.

I think it's probably even a bit more unlikely than just unlikely. Happ has been seen, at least with the Cubs, as a spokesperson/leader We can debate how important or overrated that is on our end, but I think we also have to understand how unlikely that is from a Cubs end. Do we really expect the Cubs to trade Happ, one year after an extension, with an NTC? Do we think they'd ask him to waive it? 

It's no zero because so very few things are a zero. Is trading Happ one of the most unlikely things to happen this offseason? I'd say yes. At this time, very much.

[chibears55]

9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Happ has a NTC. He's not being traded.

Lotta players with NTC have gotten traded over the years.  Most of these guys just want to be able to choose the team(s) they will play for that interested in trading for them.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Lotta players with NTC have gotten traded over the years.  Most of these guys just want to be able to choose the team(s) they will play for that interested in trading for them.

As I posted to Rob, there's not a zero chance the Cubs trade Happ, but it's approaching zero. They're not going to ask him to waive his NTC this offseason, under a calendar year after signing a contract. You might rather they traded Happ, they won't be trading Happ.

Edited December 11, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We've reached the 'No Trade Clauses are just words and they can be waived' stage of transaction deprivation syndrome.  Please get on with the offseason Jed, for our collective sanity.

[CubinNY]

Why do people want to get rid of Happ? Hes a better than average LF. 

[chibears55]

9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

As I posted to Rob, there's not a zero chance the Cubs trade Happ, but it's approaching zero. They're not going to ask him to waive his NTC this offseason, under a calendar year after signing a contract. You might rather they traded Happ, they won't be trading Happ.

I wasn't saying they should trade him , I was just responding to a post that mentioned him playing 1B and just suggested I'd rather they just trade him then having him move to 1B.

[chibears55]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

We've reached the 'No Trade Clauses are just words and they can be waived' stage of transaction deprivation syndrome.  Please get on with the offseason Jed, for our collective sanity.

Right, add a bullpen arm or a bench guy, something that shows he actually on the phone and talking to people. 😅

[Soul]

Apparently Bellinger’s wife is in Toronto right now fueling speculation that he might be going there.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

15 minutes ago, Soul said:

Apparently Bellinger’s wife is in Toronto right now fueling speculation that he might be going there.

If you're talking about the instagram post, turns out the photo was from a few years ago.

[Soul]

11 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

If you're talking about the instagram post, turns out the photo was from a few years ago.

Apparently she took it down too.

Also my bad, they aren’t married (yet)

I’m 0-2 today.  Time to quit 😊

[Rob]

57 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

We've reached the 'No Trade Clauses are just words and they can be waived' stage of transaction deprivation syndrome.  Please get on with the offseason Jed, for our collective sanity.

Agreed. I'm trying very hard not to study today, and being left to spitball about things I know won't happen isn't even a fun distraction.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

We've reached the 'No Trade Clauses are just words and they can be waived' stage of transaction deprivation syndrome.  Please get on with the offseason Jed, for our collective sanity.

I can't wait for the Cubs to make some sort of smallish transaction (like a waiver claim, or a small BP depth) only for the subsequent "they're not going to do anything" panic attacks.

Edited December 11, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Rob]

Alright, how's this for a lightning rod idea? The Cubs should sign Josh Donaldson.

The bad news -- he just turned 38. He's coming off a .152/.249/.418 slash line in 51 games. And he's a notorious clubhouse cancer.

The good news -- that terrible slash line came with a .115 BABIP, so there's definitely a fair amount of bad luck involved, and thus reason to hope for a bounceback. He still takes walks and hits the ball pretty darn hard. And he's still an above-average defender at the hot corner. In 2021 and 2022 he put up 3.0 and 1.7 fWAR in about 130 games.

He's basically Patrick Wisdom, if Wisdom could actually field the ball.

Also, he's said 2024 is definitely his last year. And I recently read a Pujols conspiracy that basically said that MLB only tests their players twice during a year. Once at the beginning of the season, and then once more at some point during the season. If you get tested early in the season, you can hop on PEDs for the rest of the season as long as you don't care about getting popped during offseason testing. And since he's retiring, he shouldn't care about that. Donaldson seems like the exact sort of horsefeathers to do this if it's true.

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I can't wait for the Cubs to make some sort of smallish transaction (like a waiver claim, or a small BP depth) only for the subsequent "they're not going to do anything" panic attacks.

We are too early for panic. I just like to see some real action. I do think they will be active this off season. It would be nice to have something real to talk about. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

We are too early for panic. I just like to see some real action. I do think they will be active this off season. It would be nice to have something real to talk about. 

For you? Perhaps. Watch the Cubs claim some LHP from the Braves in 2 days as their next move and a loud contingency of fans ramble about the team doing nothing and how Counsell will be the only move all offseason going off into panic mode.

Edited December 11, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

For you? Perhaps. Watch the Cubs claim some LHP from the Braves in 2 days as their next move and a loud contingency of fans ramble about the team doing nothing and how Counsell will be the only move all offseason going off into panic mode.

Yes for me. I am sure you too. But I get your point. As I said, just like them to make some sort of substantial move so we have something to discuss(argue about). 

[muntjack]

I probably have more faith in Jed than is justified, and there's still plenty of time to make moves, but the team is down multiple impact players and has a lot of work to do to get to 90+ wins.  

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, muntjack said:

I probably have more faith in Jed than is justified, and there's still plenty of time to make moves, but the team is down multiple impact players and has a lot of work to do to get to 90+ wins.  

I believe he will make several moves and this team will go into 2024 as the favorite in the division. I just irrationally want things to happen now. 

[Tim]

46 minutes ago, muntjack said:

...the team is down multiple impact players...

Impact players? Bellinger and ?

I guess you could say Stroman, but then there are lot of "impact" pitchers available on the market. Stro only managed 2.7 fWAR as a starter last year and only pitched 136 innings. In 2022, he was worth 2.0 fWAR and only pitched 138 innings. 

Candelario was worth 0.2 fWAR with the Cubs. Not much impact there. 

Who else are we down?