Cubs offseason chit chat...

[JD94]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t understand . His bat is awesome for a DH but not for a first baseman? I also have read how bad he is defensively. Didn’t he win a GG in 22’? 

Yes. The value his bat adds is being lost by his defense. That’s why he’s a 1 fWAR player. Being a DH, he doesn’t lose the value he’d lose by playing the field. 
 

I don’t know if he won a GG or not, but this year at 1B he was -6 DRS and -13 OAA. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, JD94 said:

Yes. The value his bat adds is being lost by his defense. That’s why he’s a 1 fWAR player. Being a DH, he doesn’t lose the value he’d lose by playing the field. 
 

I don’t know if he won a GG or not, but this year at 1B he was -6 DRS and -13 OAA. 

He did win a GG in 22’. I admit I don’t watch many Jay games or look at defensive stats. I am not questioning him being awful at 1st. I was just surprised he was considered so bad a year after winning th GG. While I know it isn’t always given to the best defender I didn’t think a terrible defender would get the award. I would be fine with him at 1st if the Cubs also got Ohtani or Soto. 

[chibears55]

I really hope the rumor about Bichette is true, ive liked him since his first season. 

With Swanson,  that left side will be pretty awesome both offensively and defensively for a few years( hopefully they'll eventually extend him).

[ToolDRT]

I’m concerned Ohtani isn’t going to see our current team as much better than what he’s already been playing with and take the dodgers. That’s why it would nice to add a piece or two upfront.  
 

Unfortunately, that becomes hard when you aren’t sure if you’re gonna need to keep a hefty amount of payroll or Ohtani. 
 

Note: this isn’t me downplaying our prospects or saying we’re the Angels moving forward. I’m just worried he’s gonna see immediate World Series contenders with the dodgers and we’re gonna be left empty handed. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

19 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

I’m concerned Ohtani isn’t going to see our current team as much better than what he’s already been playing with and take the dodgers. That’s why it would nice to add a piece or two upfront.  
 

Unfortunately, that becomes hard when you aren’t sure if you’re gonna need to keep a hefty amount of payroll or Ohtani. 
 

Note: this isn’t me downplaying our prospects or saying we’re the Angels moving forward. I’m just worried he’s gonna see immediate World Series contenders with the dodgers and we’re gonna be left empty handed. 

Que Sera, Sera 

[Cuzi]

It's also more likely the Dodgers just simply offer him more money. The Dodgers have FU money and if they want they can outbid the Cubs if they choose.

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

I’m concerned Ohtani isn’t going to see our current team as much better than what he’s already been playing with and take the dodgers. That’s why it would nice to add a piece or two upfront.  
 

Unfortunately, that becomes hard when you aren’t sure if you’re gonna need to keep a hefty amount of payroll or Ohtani. 
 

Note: this isn’t me downplaying our prospects or saying we’re the Angels moving forward. I’m just worried he’s gonna see immediate World Series contenders with the dodgers and we’re gonna be left empty handed. 

If the Cubs get Ohtani they are the favorites in the central. There is no reason they shouldn’t make the playoffs more often than not. They are a better team then the angels in a worse division. Yes, Dodgers can almost guarantee playoffs, but the Cubs wouldn’t be far off that WITH Ohtani.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Rcal10

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

It's also more likely the Dodgers just simply offer him more money. The Dodgers have FU money and if they want they can outbid the Cubs if they choose.

This is the bigger issue IMO. I don’t feel the Cubs have to convince him they would be good with him. But they have to pay him. 

[gocubs218]

It’s pretty silly to me to say we are going to lose out on Shohei because of money. Everyone knows upfront what it’s going to take to sign him. It’s not some big mystery. If he picks the Dodgers, it’s going to be because he wanted to play there more. 

[Cuzi]

7 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

It’s pretty silly to me to say we are going to lose out on Shohei because of money. Everyone knows upfront what it’s going to take to sign him. It’s not some big mystery. If he picks the Dodgers, it’s going to be because he wanted to play there more. 

We do? So it's a "buy it now" price and not a "bid?" Interesting. What's the sticker price then?

Edited November 23, 2023 by Cuzi

[CubinNY]

11 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

We do? So it's a "buy it now" price and not a "bid?" Interesting. What's the sticker price then?

What he is saying is all the offers are going to be more or less the same and it will be Ohtani choosing where he wants to go. I believe that too, for the most part. He might have a lower AAV but longer offer with one team. A higher AAV with opt outs from another and so on, but all of them will be similar.

he might look at all of them and then say to the team he wants to go to, “give me this and we have a deal”. It probably won’t be all about the money, but the buy in just to talk will be ridiculous. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by CubinNY

[We Got The Whole 9]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

We do? So it's a "buy it now" price and not a "bid?" Interesting. What's the sticker price then?

Been thinking about this. If the reports are accurate that he's more amenable to a short-term deal, do you have to offer 8/500 with an opt out after 5? Is that ludicrous?

[gocubs218]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

What he is saying is all the offers are going to be more or less the same and it will be Ohtani choosing where he wants to go. I believe that too, for the most part. He might have a lower AAV but longer offer with one team. A higher AAV with opt outs from another and so on, but all of them will be similar.

Yeah, this isn’t rocket science. 

[Cuzi]

9 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

What he is saying is all the offers are going to be more or less the same and it will be Ohtani choosing where he wants to go. I believe that too, for the most part. He might have a lower AAV but longer offer with one team. A higher AAV with opt outs from another and so on, but all of them will be similar.

I fail to see the similarities in your options.

We have absolutely no clue what figure its going to take to land Ohtani. How many pundits projected Xander Bogaerts was going to sign for 11/280? Do you honestly believe there were similar offers to that from multiple teams?

Edited November 23, 2023 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Yeah, this isn’t rocket science. 

Your right, it’s not rocket science. Anyone who has followed free agency over the years should know the team that gives the most money gets the FA at least 80% of the time. It is by far the most important thing to free agents. Sure, a competitive team matters, the city may matter, maybe familiarity, whatever. But money matters rhe most. 

[JD94]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I fail to see the similarities in your options.

We have absolutely no clue what figure its going to take to land Ohtani. How many pundits projected Xander Bogaerts was going to sign for 11/280? Do you honestly believe there were similar offers to that from multiple teams?

Bogaerts and Ohtani aren’t the same though. Some may have been interested in Bogaerts at 8/200 for example, but decided to pass when it got to 11/280. Ohtani is a once in a lifetime type player. I seriously doubt teams that are seriously in this say “I’ll give you $450M, but $500M is just too much. I’m out.” If you’re willing to pay up for Ohtani from the jump, then you’re very aware of the ballpark range of what you will potentially be spending. 

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, JD94 said:

Bogaerts and Ohtani aren’t the same though. Some may have been interested in Bogaerts at 8/200 for example, but decided to pass when it got to 11/280. Ohtani is a once in a lifetime type player. I seriously doubt teams that are seriously in this say “I’ll give you $450M, but $500M is just too much. I’m out.” If you’re willing to pay up for Ohtani from the jump, then you’re very aware of the ballpark range of what you will potentially be spending. 

No horsefeathers they aren't the same. Ohtani is a unicorn. So trying to say we know what exactly it's going to take to sign him just shows how completely full of horsefeathers one is.

If you think teams don't have a number in mind where they simply back out you are insane, even for Ohtani.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, JD94 said:

Bogaerts and Ohtani aren’t the same though. Some may have been interested in Bogaerts at 8/200 for example, but decided to pass when it got to 11/280. Ohtani is a once in a lifetime type player. I seriously doubt teams that are seriously in this say “I’ll give you $450M, but $500M is just too much. I’m out.” If you’re willing to pay up for Ohtani from the jump, then you’re very aware of the ballpark range of what you will potentially be spending. 

But a team normally blows what is expected out of the water. Bogaerts is a perfect example. If a team is going to blow other teams out on an offer, it is much more likely that team would be the Dodgers than the Cubs, IMO.

[ToolDRT]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Your right, it’s not rocket science. Anyone who has followed free agency over the years should know the team that gives the most money gets the FA at least 80% of the time. It is by far the most important thing to free agents. Sure, a competitive team matters, the city may matter, maybe familiarity, whatever. But money matters rhe most. 

It’s just not always true though, as you even said. There’s been instances of players taking less to play with their preferred team. Unfortunately for us, Heyward was even one of those cases. Just this week Nola was. 
 

With multiple instances of people saying Ohtani isn’t strictly money motivated I think he might have a preferred destination he’s willing to take less to play for. 
 

Of course, if someone just blows the field out of the water with an offer that’s one thing. But as we can all agree, there’s a general price it’s going to take to play poker here. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, ToolDRT said:

It’s just not always true though, as you even said. There’s been instances of players taking less to play with their preferred team. Unfortunately for us, Heyward was even one of those cases. Just this week Nola was. 
 

With multiple instances of people saying Ohtani isn’t strictly money motivated I think he might have a preferred destination he’s willing to take less to play for. 
 

Of course, if someone just blows the field out of the water with an offer that’s one thing. But as we can all agree, there’s a general price it’s going to take to play poker here. 

There are so many ways to structure a deal it is too hard to figure which deal is best for a particular player. But I don’t believe he would go to the Dodgers because he doesn’t like the Cubs chances of winning. I am not worried about that being the Cubs problem. That is all I am saying. I think the FO can sell him on the Cubs winning with him. Maybe it won’t be money as the decider either. It might be just where he wants to play, for whatever reason. But we do have to realize he might get a crazy deal from someone and I don’t think that someone will be the Cubs. 

[ToolDRT]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

There are so many ways to structure a deal it is too hard to figure which deal is best for a particular player. But I don’t believe he would go to the Dodgers because he doesn’t like the Cubs chances of winning. I am not worried about that being the Cubs problem. That is all I am saying. I think the FO can sell him on the Cubs winning with him. Maybe it won’t be money as the decider either. It might be just where he wants to play, for whatever reason. But we do have to realize he might get a crazy deal from someone and I don’t think that someone will be the Cubs. 

No, I understand. And I’m basing this off a gut feeling only. It’s just that the dodgers have a more established roster right now. They  enter every season projected to win their division and not just because the other teams suck. They’re just really well built. My concern is Ohtani couldn’t even win with Mike Trout. I don’t believe he’s seen playoffs in the major leagues. Is he gonna want a more sure thing? Cause, to me, that’s the dodgers and not us. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, ToolDRT said:

No, I understand. And I’m basing this off a gut feeling only. It’s just that the dodgers have a more established roster right now. They  enter every season projected to win their division and not just because the other teams suck. They’re just really well built. My concern is Ohtani couldn’t even win with Mike Trout. I don’t believe he’s seen playoffs in the major leagues. Is he gonna want a more sure thing? Cause, to me, that’s the dodgers and not us. 

True. But none of us are Ohtani. To try to figure out what is most important to him is a waste of time. He could also want to be the man somewhere. In LA he shares the spotlight with Betts and Freeman. In Chicago he owns the town. Maybe he is done with the LA area. As I said, no one knows and to try figuring out what makes a guy decide how he decides is impossible. All the Cubs could do is make an offer they are comfortable with and sell him in the city. 

[Cuzi]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

True. But none of us are Ohtani. To try to figure out what is most important to him is a waste of time. He could also want to be the man somewhere. In LA he shares the spotlight with Betts and Freeman. In Chicago he owns the town. Maybe he is done with the LA area. As I said, no one knows and to try figuring out what makes a guy decide how he decides is impossible. All the Cubs could do is make an offer they are comfortable with and sell him in the city. 

Lets be real. Ohtani has been on a team with Mike Trout and he's still the spotlight.

[Bull]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

I really hope the rumor about Bichette is true, ive liked him since his first season. 

With Swanson,  that left side will be pretty awesome both offensively and defensively for a few years( hopefully they'll eventually extend him).

I don’t want Bichette because I think Hoerner would be involved. There’s no way Toronto moves Bichette without a right now replacement for him. Morel would man second. I don’t think that improves the team.

[Cuzi]

Just now, Bull said:

I don’t want Bichette because I think Hoerner would be involved. There’s no way Toronto moves Bichette without a right now replacement for him. Morel would man second. I don’t think that improves the team.

If the Cubs traded Hoerner in a deal for Bichette, then Bichette would man second and he wouldn't be happy about it. I'm fairly certain he has publicly said he does not want to leave the SS position, and why would he? It's the most valuable position on the diamond behind the pitcher. Who wants to give that up 2 years before your big pay day?