Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is it clear that Kim would actually reach free agency if he declines the mutual option?  That's more common with Japanese players but Kim coming from Korea and signing a more modest deal makes me think he's probably still arb eligible.

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

It has less to do with Kim being a problem versus being a potential solution to their problem. He has 1 year remaining. They are about to lose a good chunk of their starting rotation. They are talking about trading Soto. They are in the middle of a soft reset. Do they plan on extending Kim or not? If the answer is no, then he's probably available in trade and they could probably ask for a decent amount in return.

If this is his last year and he can be a free agent the return might not be that great, however. But I do understand your point in if they can’t extend him they might deal him. I honestly think Soto will be available. And that will be the big move the Padres make. 

[thawv]

45 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Is it clear that Kim would actually reach free agency if he declines the mutual option?  That's more common with Japanese players but Kim coming from Korea and signing a more modest deal makes me think he's probably still arb eligible.

From what I see, he's getting 8 million this season, and in 2024 he gets 7 million with a 2 million mutual option.  I assume that he becomes a FA if the option is not picked up?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

From what I see, he's getting 8 million this season, and in 2024 he gets 7 million with a 2 million mutual option.  I assume that he becomes a FA if the option is not picked up?

Kim only has 3 years of service time.  Some international FAs have it in their contracts that they go straight to FA upon the completion of that contract, but it's not a universal provision.  Especially given that Kim didn't really sign a contract for FA dollars it's very possible he didn't have the leverage or interest in insisting on that provision, which means he'd be arbitration eligible in 2025 and 2026.

[thawv]

52 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Kim only has 3 years of service time.  Some international FAs have it in their contracts that they go straight to FA upon the completion of that contract, but it's not a universal provision.  Especially given that Kim didn't really sign a contract for FA dollars it's very possible he didn't have the leverage or interest in insisting on that provision, which means he'd be arbitration eligible in 2025 and 2026.

Yes...I've seen nothing about him being a FA or arb.  It's pretty unusual actually.  I'm confused on how he can become arb eligible after his contract expires.  Who's the arb team?   He's no longer under contract with any team.  Wouldn't that technically make him a FA?  I mean, how can his 4 year deal expire with the Pads, and then they still have arb control over him?  It just doesn't make sense.  

Edited October 24, 2023 by thawv

[Cuzi]

Unless I am mistaken, any foreign player aged 25 with at least 6 years of service time in a foreign league recognized by MLB is considered an unrestricted FA. Kim was 25 and played 7 years in Korea, making him a UFA at the time he initially signed with the Padres. He will be a UFA when his contract expires. Service time in MLB does not apply to his FA status.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, thawv said:

Yes...I've seen nothing about him being a FA or arb.  It's pretty unusual actually.  I'm confused on how he can become arb eligible after his contract expires.  Who's the arb team?   He's no longer under contract with any team.  Wouldn't that technically make him a FA?  I mean, how can his 4 year deal expire with the Pads, and then they still have arb control over him?  It just doesn't make sense.  

The same way any arbitration eligible player is.  If you have less than 6 years of service time you can't be a free agent, even if you signed a multi-year deal.  As mentioned that does get waived in some cases for International FA, but aside from that possibility, the situation is no different than Alzolay being a Cubs player next year(and the year after) despite only having a one year contract.

[thawv]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The same way any arbitration eligible player is.  If you have less than 6 years of service time you can't be a free agent, even if you signed a multi-year deal.  As mentioned that does get waived in some cases for International FA, but aside from that possibility, the situation is no different than Alzolay being a Cubs player next year(and the year after) despite only having a one year contract.

That doesn't seem right comparing AA to him.  Adbert was never posted because Venezuela is different from the Japan league.  AA was a FA when he signed, who is treated just like any other player signed or drafted.  He's going through the arb process and will be a FA in 2027.

[thawv]

12 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Unless I am mistaken, any foreign player aged 25 with at least 6 years of service time in a foreign league recognized by MLB is considered an unrestricted FA. Kim was 25 and played 7 years in Korea, making him a UFA at the time he initially signed with the Padres. He will be a UFA when his contract expires. Service time in MLB does not apply to his FA status.

Just knowing who you are as a poster, I feel confident that this is how it is.

[Stratos]

On 10/22/2023 at 7:27 PM, Bertz said:

I love this Polanco idea.  Offensively he's not too dissimilar from Candelario, defensively you can get him in the lineup at 2nd or 3rd (and in a real pinch SS).  His contract is two consecutive club options, whereas I think Candy might require a 3 or even 4 year deal.  BBTV says it won't take much to get him, a prospect of consequence but nothing wild.

Having an ability to get some quality LHH plate appearances in the infield somewhere besides 1B is a low key need.  And currently the internal options on that front are just BJ Murray and Miles Mastrobuoni.  I like both guys but hard to confidently count on either contributing in '24.

Polanco seems pretty good.  Little worried about his 3 different injuries last year, but they could get him at a bit of a discount because of that too.  We need a 3B, whether its Morel or whomever (who i'd like to give a chance to, we need as many HR in the lineup), but we don't really need anyone to play 2B.  We have Morel and Madrigal to backup Nico, and Shaw/Luis Vazquez in a pinch.  At SS we have Nico and Morel to backup Swanson, plus Madrigal or Shaw/Vazquez in a pinch.

Ideally if we acquired another 3B i'd like him to also be able to play 1B like Candelario did.  Basically an upgrade to Wisdom.  Polanco has never played 1B as a pro, but he could play some there in ST like how Madrigal learned 3B last year.  Or there's someone out there who can play the 1B/3B role.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Stratos

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Why are they screwed already if Mervis and Hoskins are 1b/DH? If Mervis sucks then obviously he isn’t going to DH. Hoskins will play 1B and the Cubs will just rotate DH. Bottom line is the Cubs are not going to fill all spots with proven talent. They are not going to spend that kind of money. They need some young talent to come up. If not Mervis maybe Canario comes I and is DH. Maybe they trade for a 3rd baseman and Morel is the DH. Or, maybe Mervis does well the second time around. We don’t have to look far to find a guy who didn’t establish himself until he was mid to late 20’s in the majors. Garcia isn’t doing too bad for an older guy breaking into the league. Why can’t Mervis? 

Mervis and Hoskins have definite upside potential, which for a team being squeezed in budget under the CBT line and already only borderline playoff contenders they may need some high upside risks to payoff to succeed, like Bellinger in 2023.  The problem is yeah they're both risky,  Hoskins with the year missed, 2 years older since his last opening day, and a major injury that could affect hitting, defense, and running.

Might depend on what Hoskins wants.  Conforto got 2/36 from the Giants last year, but he was once a 4-5 win player.  Hoskins is a 2.5 WAR guy at best.  I'm thinking maybe 1 yr, 12m.  Or 2/24 with player opt-out?

 

Edited October 24, 2023 by Stratos

[Stratos]

If you had to choose, in 2024 would you guys rather go Bellinger CF/Mervis 1B or Tauchman-PCA CF/Alonso 1B (minus prospects traded for Alsono, likely including Mervis).  Assuming Alonso signs an extension.

 

[Stratos]

Stroman has been a disappointing signing.  138/136 IP in 2022/2023, only worth 2.0 and 2.7 WAR in those years.  Paying around 24 million AAV for a sub-3 WAR player is not good value.  I hope he opts out.

In 2021 the Mets let him throw 179 IP after not pitching a single inning in 2020.  Significant injury risk from doing that, but the Mets didn't care, he was a FA.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Stratos

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Stroman has been a disappointing signing.  138/136 IP in 2022/2023, only worth 2.0 and 2.7 WAR in those years.  Paying around 24 million AAV for a sub-3 WAR player is not good value.  I hope he opts out.

In 2021 the Mets let him throw 179 IP after not pitching a single inning in 2020.  Significant injury risk from doing that, but the Mets didn't care, he was a FA.

I hope he opts out for not just his meh pitching, but to free up almost 25 million to go get a true ace!  Yoshi please!

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I get where you’re coming from given how we’re trained to think but also only 71 pitchers put up 2+ WAR in 2023, 64 SPs, and 30 of them put up btw 2-2.9 WAR. 85 pitchers threw 130 innings in 2022 and 57 of those guys put up 2 WAR. It’s not a particularly common package, the attached pedigree and notoriety are worth some money too.

Obviously in general we all want to get tremendous amount of WAR and durability for every dollar Papa Ricketts so generously feeds this portion of the system, but real life makes actually roster building and Value much more nebulous and by the book than we’d like is all. I “hope” he opts out too because the boogity boogity cap and budget like anyone else, but really if he does the Cubs aren’t in a bad spot with SP and upgrading to an an obviously higher ceiling may cost pops $40 million a year and easily $30+

I’m impressed how easy it has been to bury no less than the real life President of Cubs Baseball literally saying the books are clear moving forward. They’ve got money to spend, reason to spend it, and a pretty straightforward offseason ahead whether he opts in or not 

We didn't get value for the money, that's all i'm saying.  I like him as a pitcher, we shouldn't regret the signing because it was a good one, he's just been hurt.  A 2.7 WAR SP isn't worth 23.7m, and neither is a 2.0 WAR SP.

To be fair, we did give him a little more AAV so we didn't have to sign him for the next 3 seasons.  We still didn't get what we wanted out of him.

Also, i'm not burying Hoyer at all, i'm not criticizing the decision because hindsight is 20/20, i'm expressing the disappointment.  I like Hoyer, minus some other nitpicks.

Edited October 25, 2023 by Stratos

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

I hope he opts out for not just his meh pitching, but to free up almost 25 million to go get a true ace!  Yoshi please!

He can still be good next year, it's not the worst thing if he opts-in, but the health is a little concerning.  If he's only going to pitch 137 IP I'd rather have Yamamota  I wouldn't seek to trade Stroman this offseason though, i'm not selling low on him.

Edited October 25, 2023 by Stratos

[WhyCantWeWin]

39 minutes ago, Stratos said:

He can still be good next year, it's not the worst thing if he opts-in, but the health is a little concerning.  If he's only going to pitch 137 IP I'd rather have Yamamota  I wouldn't seek to trade Stroman this offseason though, i'm not selling low on him.

Don't think they'd get much more by waiting to trade him. I want him gone too just to have more resources to sign Yamasaki, seems like it's gonna be a huge bidding for him between the giants, cubs, Yankees and Mets. 

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Don't think they'd get much more by waiting to trade him. I want him gone too just to have more resources to sign Yamasaki, seems like it's gonna be a huge bidding for him between the giants, cubs, Yankees and Mets. 

That sort of scenario doesn’t usually end well for the Cubs. 

[squally1313]

15 hours ago, Stratos said:

If you had to choose, in 2024 would you guys rather go Bellinger CF/Mervis 1B or Tauchman-PCA CF/Alonso 1B (minus prospects traded for Alsono, likely including Mervis).  Assuming Alonso signs an extension.

 

1. Bellinger CF/Mervis 1B/whatever pitching we can get for PCA

2. PCA CF/Mervis 1B/Ohtani or Soto at DH

 

 

3. PCA CF/Alonso 1B

[Chicago Al]

FWIW the Mets have asked the Brewers permission to interview Counsell

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, Chicago Al said:

FWIW the Mets have asked the Brewers permission to interview Counsell

I don't think they need to do that. He's only under contract until 10.31.

[Chicago Al]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I don't think they need to do that. He's only under contract until 10.31.

You’re right, but they do need permission if it’s before that date. Per MLB.com

[WhyCantWeWin]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

That sort of scenario doesn’t usually end well for the Cubs. 

Yeah they are going to need to have the largest offer, don't think hoyer has it in him to offer a contract over 200 mil

[Stratos]

17 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Don't think they'd get much more by waiting to trade him. I want him gone too just to have more resources to sign Yamasaki, seems like it's gonna be a huge bidding for him between the giants, cubs, Yankees and Mets. 

That would be a legit reason to move him I guess, to make payroll space.  We probably have to eat a bit of salary.  He'll make 21m next season.  What's he worth, 15m?  So eat 6?  Unless we also send prospects?

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

1.  I do see where you’re coming from, $/WAR is the most popular FA analysis, but would submit it’s not necessarily all teams care about in FA and Cubs got exactly what they wanted

2.  The outlook on spending $23 million in this way is great for us and our partners the Ricketts, never again, so rest assured you have been heard. Really really I suspect the only reason you’re counting is because it makes Yamamoto less realistic but spending $30-40 million on an “unknown” pitcher is never a realistic option for Cubs 

1.  I don't really think they wanted a SP who threw 138 IP both seasons, got injured twice, and had ERA's that were above average but not not near the TORP-type ERA's he put up in the previous 2 seasons before he signed.  They wanted the guy from 2019-2021.  I really don't think there's much debate that his time with us has been a bit disappointing.

2. I like Yamamoto but i'm not one of the big cheerleaders here.,  I agree he comes with risk due to never pitching here.  But he'll still do well in the MLB I would wager and probably is a TORP, maybe around a 3.00 ERA, or high 2's ERA?  I was just making a statement.  Whether we get Yamamoto or not, Stroman opting out would be good for the Cubs, but not at all terrible if he opts in.