Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees

[Cuzi]

I like how Morel seemingly has less value than prospects in this thread. Go look at that trade value site we want to link as evidence of Morel being worth a 1 for 1 swap for Soto and tell me how many of our top prospects are more valuable. We are talking about a 30 HR power bat at 24 years old with 5 years of control here. There's a reason why teams want to trade for him, allegedly as the headliner in a deal for Juan Soto.

Would I make the trade? That would all depend on how sure I am that Soto will sign an extension before reaching FA.

Edited October 28, 2023 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

28 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I like how Morel seemingly has less value than prospects in this thread. Go look at that trade value site we want to link as evidence of Morel being worth a 1 for 1 swap for Soto and tell me how many of our top prospects are more valuable. We are talking about a 30 HR power bat at 24 years old with 5 years of control here. There's a reason why teams want to trade for him, allegedly as the headliner in a deal for Juan Soto.

Would I make the trade? That would all depend on how sure I am that Soto will sign an extension before reaching FA.

100% agree. If we don’t extend Soto there is no reason to make this deal. And we will regret it for years as Morel continues to play well for low cost.

[JHBulls]

That’s where I am at as well. Soto isn’t the missing piece of a championship calibre roster, so there is no reason to trade away a fine young player with years of control left unless there is an extension for Soto. Chances of Soto not making it to free agency would have to be low. 

 

Edited October 28, 2023 by JHBulls

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

I like how Morel seemingly has less value than prospects in this thread. Go look at that trade value site we want to link as evidence of Morel being worth a 1 for 1 swap for Soto and tell me how many of our top prospects are more valuable. We are talking about a 30 HR power bat at 24 years old with 5 years of control here. There's a reason why teams want to trade for him, allegedly as the headliner in a deal for Juan Soto.

Would I make the trade? That would all depend on how sure I am that Soto will sign an extension before reaching FA.

Can't speak for everyone, but IMO there's two positives to dealing Morel instead of one of the prospects:

- Morel does have a lot more value than any of our prospects besides PCA.  So if you make a deal that centers around him, you're probably able to do something like e.g. Morel + Kilian + filler as opposed to an alternative of Caissie + Wicks or Alcantara + Brown (+ filler).  There's some benefit to having more prospects of substance on hand even if ultimately we're spending the same capital either way

- Morel's value to this roster, where 2B and both corner outfield spots are spoken for, is much lower than it would be on a team where one of those three spots is open.  There's a bit of mutual benefit to dealing him somewhere where he can maximize his value

[Rcal10]

27 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Can't speak for everyone, but IMO there's two positives to dealing Morel instead of one of the prospects:

- Morel does have a lot more value than any of our prospects besides PCA.  So if you make a deal that centers around him, you're probably able to do something like e.g. Morel + Kilian + filler as opposed to an alternative of Caissie + Wicks or Alcantara + Brown (+ filler).  There's some benefit to having more prospects of substance on hand even if ultimately we're spending the same capital either way

- Morel's value to this roster, where 2B and both corner outfield spots are spoken for, is much lower than it would be on a team where one of those three spots is open.  There's a bit of mutual benefit to dealing him somewhere where he can maximize his value

I think it comes down to a decision by the. Cubs as to if Morel can play 3rd base. We don’t know if during the off season he proves he can play 3rd. If he can, I would rather go the prospect route. If he can’t they can use him. But either way, they need to sign Soto if they give up a solid package for him. 

[Stratos]

Morel + Bellinger + cash > 1 year of Soto?

I think the Cubs might be a better team with Morel and then used that 33m to sign e.g. Bellinger + money left over for another upgrade than with Soto.  Bellinger + Morel probably nets you the same WAR in 2024 but is cheaper and you'd have both for several years to come.

I probably wouldn't trade for Soto anyways unless there was an extension.

Edited October 28, 2023 by Stratos

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Morel + Bellinger + cash > 1 year of Soto?

I think the Cubs might be a better team with Morel and then used that 33m to sign e.g. Bellinger + money left over for another upgrade than with Soto.  Bellinger + Morel probably nets you the same WAR in 2024 but is cheaper and you'd have both for several years to come.

I probably wouldn't trade for Soto anyways unless there was an extension.

Counting stats can help us here, let's take wRC (not wRC+, just the cumulative value) as an example.  Last year:

• Soto: 708 PA, 131 wRC
• Bellinger: 556 PA, 92 wRC
• Morel: 429 PA, 63 wRC
• Wisdom: 302 PA, 40 wRC
• Madrigal: 294 PA, 30 wRC

This shows us that from an offensive perspective, Soto is so good that the other player in the tandem only needs to be as good as fringe roster guys in order to match.  Plus this comparison includes an offensive level from Bellinger that we aren't really expecting to repeat, and obviously the goal will be to shoot higher than Madrigal/Wisdom with the other starting spot in this scenario.  Yes there's a defensive consideration, but since we're talking about bottom of the defensive spectrum(and poor defenders at that) aside from Bellinger's CF(which we'd expect elite defense from via PCA for a chunk of the season anyway), that impact is muted.  If you want to say it's not worth it for potentially one year of Soto that's one thing(I'd disagree but I get it), but if you want the best possible team in 2024 then given the roster and financial circumstances I think it points pretty clearly to Soto.

[Rex Buckingham]

Juan Soto likely gets you closer to a WS this year than Christopher Morel and whatever prospects (Killian? Christian Franklin? Arias?) you might send with him.

He's a star, and his impact in the Cubs lineup would be tremendous. He's the best young hitter in the game. You have to give up value to get value. Having him in Chicago playing for a (presumably) winning team probably gives you a boost in FA negotiations. 

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Juan Soto likely gets you closer to a WS this year than Christopher Morel and whatever prospects (Killian? Christian Franklin? Arias?) you might send with him.

He's a star, and his impact in the Cubs lineup would be tremendous. He's the best young hitter in the game. You have to give up value to get value. Having him in Chicago playing for a (presumably) winning team probably gives you a boost in FA negotiations. 

I still wouldn’t want to give up additional years of Morel unless the Cubs have an extension for Soto worked out or the FO knows they have to give him the best offer as a FA., and sign him. I don’t want 1 year if Soto for 5 of Morel. The team isn’t that close to winning it all. And as we saw this year, no team really is that close to go all in for 1 year. 

[Cuzi]

22 hours ago, Bertz said:

Can't speak for everyone, but IMO there's two positives to dealing Morel instead of one of the prospects:

- Morel does have a lot more value than any of our prospects besides PCA.  So if you make a deal that centers around him, you're probably able to do something like e.g. Morel + Kilian + filler as opposed to an alternative of Caissie + Wicks or Alcantara + Brown (+ filler).  There's some benefit to having more prospects of substance on hand even if ultimately we're spending the same capital either way

- Morel's value to this roster, where 2B and both corner outfield spots are spoken for, is much lower than it would be on a team where one of those three spots is open.  There's a bit of mutual benefit to dealing him somewhere where he can maximize his value

There is little benefit to the Cubs, without an extension in place.

This team needs more than Juan Soto for 1 year. He is not the missing piece to a Cubs WS roster.

If Morel is so valuable that on paper he could land Soto in a 1 for 1 swap, then I'm willing to bet theres a 3B out there with years of control that would be far more valuable to the Cubs in the long run.

[Rcal10]

52 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

There is little benefit to the Cubs, without an extension in place.

This team needs more than Juan Soto for 1 year. He is not the missing piece to a Cubs WS roster.

If Morel is so valuable that on paper he could land Soto in a 1 for 1 swap, then I'm willing to bet theres a 3B out there with years of control that would be far more valuable to the Cubs in the long run.

Ramirez???? Wonder if there is anything to the mention of the Guardians considering trading Ramirez? 
 

 

Edited October 29, 2023 by Rcal10

[Cuzi]

30 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Ramirez???? Wonder if there is anything to the mention of the Guardians considering trading Ramirez?

Ignoring the fact that Ramirez would be completely out of the realm of possibilities, he took a way under market deal because he specifically wanted to play in Cleveland and only Cleveland so they gave him a full NTC. Ramirez isn't getting traded because of Ramirez.

A far more realistic option would be some kind of package deal with the Rays for Glasnow + Mead. It would take a decent addition with Morel to get it done, but thats the caliber of 3B you are looking at. A highly thought of prospect that was recently promoted or in AAA on a team with a 3B fully entrenched at the position. I still do like Westburg aswell.

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Ignoring the fact that Ramirez would be completely out of the realm of possibilities, he took a way under market deal because he specifically wanted to play in Cleveland and only Cleveland so they gave him a full NTC. Ramirez isn't getting traded because of Ramirez.

A far more realistic option would be some kind of package deal with the Rays for Glasnow + Mead. It would take a decent addition with Morel to get it done, but thats the caliber of 3B you are looking at. A highly thought of prospect that was recently promoted or in AAA on a team with a 3B fully entrenched at the position. I still do like Westburg aswell.

I know. It was extreme wishful thinking. And then I looked at his contract and excess value and realized there is no scenario he is a possibility. And when you add his NTC and him specifically signing with Cleveland it add up not even worth discussing.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

Ignoring the fact that Ramirez would be completely out of the realm of possibilities, he took a way under market deal because he specifically wanted to play in Cleveland and only Cleveland so they gave him a full NTC. Ramirez isn't getting traded because of Ramirez.

A far more realistic option would be some kind of package deal with the Rays for Glasnow + Mead. It would take a decent addition with Morel to get it done, but thats the caliber of 3B you are looking at. A highly thought of prospect that was recently promoted or in AAA on a team with a 3B fully entrenched at the position. I still do like Westburg aswell.

Mead and Glasnow is much more realistic. However at Glasnow’s salary and his injury history I am not sure how decent an addition to Morel I would want to give up. Maybe the second piece is in the 10-15 range of Cubs prospects? 

 

Edited October 29, 2023 by Rcal10

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 hours ago, Cuzi said:

There is little benefit to the Cubs, without an extension in place.

This team needs more than Juan Soto for 1 year. He is not the missing piece to a Cubs WS roster.

If Morel is so valuable that on paper he could land Soto in a 1 for 1 swap, then I'm willing to bet theres a 3B out there with years of control that would be far more valuable to the Cubs in the long run.

The Cubs had the run differential of a 90 win team, and Soto is a cut above offensively anyone they have or can reasonably acquire(save for Ohtani).  2024 matters and while they shouldn't sell the farm for a slew of rentals, they should take advantage of opportunities to get rare players even if they aren't maximally efficient.  Morel is an average to slightly above average player whose best positions have multi-year solutions on the roster(unless you think it's DH, in which case Morel is not really above average).  Would it be better to trade Morel for a star player you have for longer term?  Sure.  Is that player out there, especially at 3B?  That is far less clear, especially for the caliber of bat that Soto provides.

[Cuzi]

Must be nice thinking Soto is going to replace Morel and then everything else stays the same. The Cubs are losing 4.1 WAR in Bellinger. We're talking about trading a guy who has been worth about 2.2 WAR over a 162 game season with 5 years of control. He was worth 1.4 WAR last year. So you lost Bellinger at 4.1 WAR and traded 1.4 WAR for 5.5 WAR of Soto for 1 year. What is your net gain? Absolutely nothing. But you managed to add roughly $12M of salary to the roster.

There's nothing impressive about saying that the Cubs had the RD of a 90 win team but only managed to win 83. Juan Soto played on a team with a better RD than the Cubs and they won 1 game less.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Cuzi

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

Must be nice thinking Soto is going to replace Morel and then everything else stays the same. The Cubs are losing 4.1 WAR in Bellinger. We're talking about trading a guy who has been worth about 2.2 WAR over a 162 game season with 5 years of control. He was worth 1.4 WAR last year. So you lost Bellinger at 4.1 WAR and traded 1.4 WAR for 5.5 WAR of Soto for 1 year. What is your net gain? Absolutely nothing. But you managed to add roughly $12M of salary to the roster.

There's nothing impressive about saying that the Cubs had the RD of a 90 win team but only managed to win 83. Juan Soto played on a team with a better RD than the Cubs and they won 1 game less.

Ah, so you're one of those fans that only wants the team to add if they've got like a Braves-caliber roster.  Got it.

[Cuzi]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Ah, so you're one of those fans that only wants the team to add if they've got like a Braves-caliber roster.  Got it.

Nah. I'm one of those fans that wants the team to make meaningful moves.

This team is in no position to be adding a Juan Soto on a 1 year deal just because its Juan Soto, especially for major league, controlled, talent.

Juan Soto will sell tickets. That's it. The team doesn't improve in the short term and it's worse off in the long term. Unless the Cubs are making the trade with the understanding that an offer they are making on an extension is going to be signed, then its a completely dumb move to make and literally the exact opposite of EVERYTHING Hoyer has said he values in creating a sustainable, winning, organization.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Cuzi

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Nah. I'm one of those fans that wants the team to make meaningful moves.

This team is in no position to be adding a Juan Soto on a 1 year deal just because its Juan Soto, especially for major league, controlled, talent.

Juan Soto will sell tickets. That's it. The team doesn't improve in the short term and it's worse off in the long term.

We do not have public 2024 projections currently, but when those come out Juan Soto will be a top 5 hitter in baseball.  If that is not a "meaningful move" then what is?

Speaking of things that are top 5, there's the Cubs farm system.  They can afford to convert some 2028 WAR into 2024 WAR.  

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

We do not have public 2024 projections currently, but when those come out Juan Soto will be a top 5 hitter in baseball.  If that is not a "meaningful move" then what is?

Speaking of things that are top 5, there's the Cubs farm system.  They can afford to convert some 2028 WAR into 2024 WAR.  

Congratulations, you added a top 5 bat for 1 year and still probably dont project to make the playoffs. Very meaningful.

About as meaningful as saying the Cubs added the top bat at the deadline and still missed the playoffs.

You know what's meaningful? Having a 100 win team and trading years of control for the best closer in the game as a rental when that is THE missing piece to winning a WS.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Cuzi

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Congratulations, you added a top 5 bat for 1 year and still probably dont project to make the playoffs. Very meaningful.

About as meaningful as saying the Cubs added the top bat at the deadline and still missed the playoffs.

You know what's meaningful? Having a 100 win team and trading years of control for the best closer in the game as a rental when that is THE missing piece to winning a WS.

 

23 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Ah, so you're one of those fans that only wants the team to add if they've got like a Braves-caliber roster.  Got it.

 

[Cuzi]

Lol.

You are so clueless. I'm not against adding players. I'm not against selling players. I have been pounding my fist on PSD to start trading prospects and ADDING to the MLB roster.

You act like I've not written on this forum about how I am 100% all in on trading someone like Alcantara for 1 year of Pete Alonso.

However, I'm completely against trading established, quality, MLB players with years of control for a 1 year hail marry on a team where that hail marry likely doesnt move the needle. It's completely shortsighted during a time where shortsightedness is the WRONG answer.

If Soto is for sure signing an extension post trade, I make that trade 100 times out of 100. If he is not going to sign an extension, then I'm never making that trade with a roster as it is currently constructed. After losing an OFer like Bellinger and trading a utility player like Morel, the only thing you have ADDED to the MLB roster is payroll for 1 year.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Cuzi

[Tim]

4 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Lol.

You are so clueless. I'm not against adding players. I'm not against selling players. I have been pounding my fist on PSD to start trading prospects and ADDING to the MLB roster.

You act like I've not written on this forum about how I am 100% all in on trading someone like Alcantara for 1 year of Pete Alonso.

However, I'm completely against trading established, quality, MLB players with years of control for a 1 year hail marry on a team where that hail marry likely doesnt move the needle. It's completely shortsighted during a time where shortsightedness is the WRONG answer.

If Soto is for sure signing an extension post trade, I make that trade 100 times out of 100. If he is not going to sign an extension, then I'm never making that trade with a roster as it is currently constructed.

So it isn't adding Soto that's the problem for you, it's trading Morel? If the trade could be accomplished with farm players instead, would you do that?

Also...just say no to trading Alcantara for one year of Alonso

[Cuzi]

38 minutes ago, Tim said:

So it isn't adding Soto that's the problem for you, it's trading Morel? If the trade could be accomplished with farm players instead, would you do that?

Also...just say no to trading Alcantara for one year of Alonso

Yes, I would trade prospects for Soto. Prospects are the most overrated fan fiction in baseball.

You aren't taking anything away from the MLB roster by trading prospects and even the best rated prospects in the minors are on average successful in MLB like 25% of the time and the Cubs aren't a "top 5 system" in baseball because they have a lot of top rated prospects. The Cubs have a higher than average number of good but not great prospects that is making them a "top 5 system." I'm more than ok with using that currency to acquire established no horsefeathers MLB talent.

I really wish I could understand the hesitation to trade Alcantara for Alonso. Alcantara has already been on the 40 man roster for 2 years. Do you know what that means? It means he has to be optioned every single year he is not on the 26 man roster. He has 1 option year remaining for 2024. He just recently got promoted to AA. That means before hes even ready to get his shot in the majors, he's probably going to have to be passed through waivers or thrown out on the field and see if it sticks. He also just happens to be the kind of prospect the Cubs have the most of.

Alcantara is following a similar path to another once top rated Yankees prospect named Estevan Florial. Florial was once a top 40 prospect in baseball, but he ran out of options before he was ready to play in MLB. Now look at him. He's completely worthless.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Cuzi

[Jason Ross]

I think it's important to remember that any trade centering around Christopher Morel for Juan Soto would almost assuredly not be in a vacuum. A trade like that, likely keeps the entire-top-9 prospects intact. At that point, we'd still be in a similar situation where we'd have plenty of prospects to pick-choose-and-move for a 2nd splash move (and for perhaps a more controllable player). I'd be very much in favor of still using the prospect capital retained to make that 2nd trade. The offseason, if they go the Juan Soto route, can't be "Juan Soto and a BP arm" and I'd hope the Cubs saw it the same way (I would assume they would in the theory they traded for a player with only one guaranteed year). 

It's why I remain very strongly on the side of being totally cool with a Morel for Soto trade. That isn't to discount Morel, I think Morel is a good player, but unless the Cubs are going to have a change of heart when it comes to Morel at 3b, he's pretty blocked. Swapping him for Soto, while also allowing for a 2nd prospect trade would be a really good way to get creative this offseason in changing our players around.

I agree, if the Cubs hope is "well, IDK, just trade for a year of Juan Soto and that's basically it", that it's probably better to find a better use for Christopher Morel. This is all under the assumption that the team has slightly higher aims than that.

Edited October 30, 2023 by 1908_Cubs