Rumor: Cubs interested in Pirates Closer Bednar

[Hairyducked Idiot]

3 minutes ago, NOLA said:

I so remember thinking Juan Cruz would be better than Big Z.

The point was never "lol Cubs pitchers are always bad."

The point was TINSTAAPP.  And Arrietaing.  You shouldn't overvalue highly-rated pitching prospects because the nature of pitching is so volatile that it's more important to have a lot of depth and an organization that is good at developing pitching than it is to have specfic highly-rated guys.

[JD94]

9 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

This is the second Cubs pitching prospect I've seen compared to Spencer Strider in two days. Both guys have a TJ and don't throw as hard on avg as Strider (avg 98 MPH as a MLer), two very key characteristics in being the one and only Spencer Strider-esque pitcher in the MLB

Also he's working on a third pitch in a world where elite relievers need three pitchers and top SPs have 4 and usually more. I get he's still developing or whatever, but also that's not exclusive to Horton

 

 

How are they not similar? Strider is almost strictly a 2 pitch starter in a league where you say starters need at least 4 pitches and maybe 5. Strider is about to be borderline back to back 5 fWAR seasons with 2 pitches he’s throws over 90% of the time. 
 

At the same point in their careers Horton has similar or better minor league numbers than Strider. Slightly less fastball velo, but Horton is still around 96-98. Elite ++ sliders. Seems like a pretty reasonable comp. 

Edited July 30, 2023 by JD94

[JD94]

2 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

The point was never "lol Cubs pitchers are always bad."

The point was TINSTAAPP.  And Arrietaing.  You shouldn't overvalue highly-rated pitching prospects because the nature of pitching is so volatile that it's more important to have a lot of depth and an organization that is good at developing pitching than it is to have specfic highly-rated guys.

So you’d rather have quantity > quality? 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just now, JD94 said:

So you’d rather have quantity > quality? 

Specifically for pitchers.  The exact opposite for hitters.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[JD94]

6 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I didn't say top-5 pitching prospect. I said no-doubt top-5 prospect. Meaning top-5 in all the lists, not just in his best showings.

Show me a prospect ranking that has Horton in the top 5 prospects in baseball, and I'll call him elite.  I wouldn't call Kyle Harrison elite either.

In prospect terms, "elite" should be reserved for the 70 FV guys.  If you can find guys putting Horton in that tier, go nuts. 
 

We need a word that separates the Prior/Strasburg tier of prospects from the "this guy is probably one of the top-10 pitchers in the minors right now" tier, and "elite" used to serve that purpose before people started trying to expand it. They're in the process of ruining "generational" the same way.

Jesus we are splitting hairs and using your crazy insane own personal preference on prospect ranking to distinguish the difference between very good and elite. Who cares? Horton is damn good. One of the best against his peers. Strasburg isn’t a prospect this year. He’s likely never throwing another pitch in MLB. I’m comparing Horton against the pitchers he’s competing against. Not your personal prospect ranking. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

2 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Jesus we are splitting hairs and using your crazy insane own personal preference on prospect ranking to distinguish the difference between very good and elite. Who cares? Horton is damn good. One of the best against his peers. Strasburg isn’t a prospect this year. He’s likely never throwing another pitch in MLB. I’m comparing Horton against the pitchers he’s competing against. Not your personal prospect ranking. 

Cool.  He's not elite relative to them, unless your definition of elite is really loose.

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Am I wrong or was Spencer Strider relatively absent on top-100 lists in the minors?

[JD94]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Actually one second thought, this one is worlds ahead of the Ben Brown/Strider comparison. You're right here about the mixes and similar performances, though I'm not as quick to brush off that Strider is a TJ-less guy with more velo

 

 

I missed the Ben Brown / Strider comp. I don’t agree with that one. I do think Strider / Horton is a really fair comp to this point. 
 

I kind of like the fact that Horton already got TJ out of the way. It’s a relatively low percentage of pitchers that ever need TJ a 2nd time… much lower than needing it the first time… to this point. I saw the stat a couple of weeks ago. Wish I had saved it. 

[cl smooth]

*sees a topic created an hour ago that is 3 pages deep*

*notices Kyle is involved in the discussion*

makes sense. 

[JD94]

2 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Cool.  He's not elite relative to them, unless your definition of elite is really loose.

 

My definition of elite is the top tier of your peers. Horton should be compared to his peers currently in the minors… not Stephen Strasburg who was drafted like 15 years ago. Mike Trout shouldn’t be compared to Ted Williams. So on and so forth. 

[Derwood]

DO NOT ENGAGE WITH KYLE

I REPEAT

DO NOT ENGAGE WITH KYLE

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So Spencer Strider has been an excellent major league pitcher the last two seasons. He was in the minors in 2021.

32 pitchers appeared on baseball-america's top 100 list in 2021.  He was not among them.    35 pitchers appeared on the 2022 list. He was not amongst them.

Strider has put up 8.2 fWAR in the majors in that time.

The exstence of Spencer Strider does not bolster the case that someone like Horton can't be traded for Bednar.. It proves that someone like Horton is overvalued, because you never really know where the top young pitchers will come from.

[UMFan83]

6 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

*sees a topic created an hour ago that is 3 pages deep*

*notices Kyle is involved in the discussion*

makes sense. 

Either the Cubs actually traded for Bednar or someone engaged with Kyle or Tom

[Derwood]

6 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Are you OK, man? I notice your posts seem more stressed and complain-y lately....Please stop telling people to not talk to other people about baseball on the gd baseball discussion forum. It's gross and rude and annoying and not even a little bit helpful 

It's not discussing baseball with Kyle, it's Kyle telling everyone they're stupid for having opinions different than his. It's fruitless and it just mucks up every thread

[JD94]

5 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

 I am....not a fan of this low empathy perspective on surgery in the first sentence. There's no surgery you want to get out of the way by doing the surgery, and if given an option the vast majority would want to avoid any surgery to the arm at all. I'd also throw out that the earlier a TJ the more likely it is to happen again as *most* of the reason 2nd TJs don't happen is because guys are done pitching not long after the first. Second TJ isn't the only thing to worry about either. Ultimately it's just not a coincidence that the best of the best modern pitchers either don't have TJ at all or have it very late in the career like a Verlander or even Pettitte

 

Some of the best pitchers in baseball has already had TJ. Wheeler, Ohtani, Gausman just to name a few. TJ is very common at all levels. I can tell you for 100% fact college pitchers absolutely view and accept TJ now as an obstacle they likely have to face at some point as I am around closely to a SEC baseball team and talk with players all the time. It’s not a death nail surgery that puts your career at risk. Sure some may never be the same post surgery, but the large majority come out fine. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

5 minutes ago, Derwood said:

It's not discussing baseball with Kyle, it's Kyle telling everyone they're stupid for having opinions different than his. It's fruitless and it just mucks up every thread

This is the first stupid opinion I've seen in this thread 

[17 Seconds]

29 minutes ago, Derwood said:

It's not discussing baseball with Kyle, it's Kyle telling everyone they're stupid for having opinions different than his. It's fruitless and it just mucks up every thread

is he wrong though?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

20 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

is he wrong though?

Frequently. But there never seems to be any correlation between how aghast people are about the opinions and whether I'm wrong or not.

I really didn't want Mike Piazza if it meant we had to include a top prospect like Pat Cline.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Post Count Padder]

Sometimes I wonder if NSBB has changed too much and then I read this thread and it's like a cozy blanket. 

[17 Seconds]

2 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Sometimes I wonder if NSBB has changed too much and then I read this thread and it's like a cozy blanket. 

wait until all the new people make their way to the social forums

[Hrubes20]

Absolutely a trade they should look into.  See if they bite on a package headlined by Wicks.

[Rex Buckingham]

I'd do it for Wicks and Alcantara, maybe a low-level pitcher too? I don't want the Cubs FO to get too in love with guys just because they developed them. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Too expensive, just go get Hader

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

I'd do it for Wicks and Alcantara, maybe a low-level pitcher too? I don't want the Cubs FO to get too in love with guys just because they developed them. 

Yeah, wouldn't even consider that.  Wicks has #3 upside in AAA and might be ready sometime in September for starts and Alcantara has incredible upside and was absolutely blistering the last month prior to pulling up with a tweaked calf (he'll be back very shortly).  Bednar is a really good reliever, but he's a reliever.  He offers control.  But he's a reliever.  The Chicago Cubs can get aggressive and target controllable players...but he's a reliever.  You've got to go bigger for the 2023 Cubs to consider moving prospects like that for me.  If it was just Wicks?  We can talk.  Adding Alcantara?  We can lets someone else pay that.  We're not there yet.

 

There are players I'd move Alcantara or Wicks for.  David Bednar isn't one.  Not now.  Not yet.

Edited July 30, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[JD94]

11 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

I'd do it for Wicks and Alcantara, maybe a low-level pitcher too? I don't want the Cubs FO to get too in love with guys just because they developed them. 

Lord no. That would be an awful trade. Cubs get fleeced. The Pirates would pack Bednars bags for him if we called and offered that.