Rumor: Cubs interested in Pirates Closer Bednar

[KCCub]

The Cubs have shown interest in Pirates' right-handed reliever, David Bednar.

Bednar is a late-bloomer and has emerged as Pittsburgh's closer over the past two seasons, during which he has a 2.03 ERA in 93.1 innings pitched, while striking out 11.7 batters per nine innings.

He will come at a costly price. Bednar is under arbitration through the conclusion of the 2026 season. He fits in with a longer-term play by Jed Hoyer but should the Cubs choose to go this route, expect the prospects going to Pittsburgh to be significant.

Bednar would take a haul obviously with his 3.5 years of control. What type of package would it take?

View full rumor

[JD94]

I’m not trading anybody out of our top 10 for a closer. If it was Pete Alonso, then yes.. have anybody not named PCA or Horton. But Bednar? No thanks. Great pitcher, but pass. Triantos or Ballesteros would be about as high as I would go prospect wise as the headliner. 

[SOFNR]

Great reliever with lots of control. Fits the idea of helping for now and the future. What does he cost? Not sure that's how I'd want to use our prospect depth. The Cubs have done a pretty great job developing bullpen arms lately, and they are pretty violatile in nature. That's kinda the last place I'd expect them to trade for long term pieces.

[Tryptamine]

This is a move tha puts a contender over the top, which is not the 2024 Cubs. I'm not ready to give up a top 5, a top 10 and another guy in the 10-20 range for Bednar.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Anyone outside of PCA is fine. This is an elite major league pitcher with 3.5 years of control left.   

If you aren't willing to give up most prospects for that, then you aren't properly discounting the prospects' value against the probability of failure.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[JD94]

7 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Anyone outside of PCA is fine. This is an elite major league pitcher with 3.5 years of control left.   

If you aren't willing to give up most prospects for that, then you aren't properly discounting the prospects' value against the probability of failure.

Horton is as untouchable for me as PCA. I think Horton is definitely top 5, and maybe higher than that, starting pitching prospect in all of baseball. I’m not giving that up for a reliever. Nope. Not happening. 
 

Only guys I’m trading a PCA or Horton for is a Juan Soto type of player. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's a very .... aggressive ... rating of Horton.

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

That's a very .... aggressive ... rating of Horton.

There are lists that have him in the mid 30s already, it not that outlandish. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

There are lists that have him in the mid 30s already, it not that outlandish. 

What percentage of lists would you say have 4 or fewer pitchers in front of him?

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

What percentage of lists would you say have 4 or fewer pitchers in front of him?

More than 5, but you also acted like it was absolutely absurd when he's probably somewhere around #7-9 right now.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

More than 5, but you also acted like it was absolutely absurd when he's probably somewhere around #7-9 right now.

I didn't say absurd. I said it was aggressive.

There's dozens and dozens of prospect lists out there, so you can always cherrypick the one or two that have a guy the highest.  And when your rating of a guy is higher than even the highest of all those? THen it's ... aggressive.

[KCCub]

I’m not moving Horton for Bednar. However, I do hope the Cubs are swimming in these types of waters of high end cost controlled talent. 

[JD94]

15 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

That's a very .... aggressive ... rating of Horton.

Have you been keeping up? He’s rising like a rocket on prospect lists daily. Just to be easy and use MLB Pipeline, he’s #45 overall and the #8 SP prospect in all of baseball. I won’t go through every pitcher ahead of him and why, be my guest to do your own research, but I will list who I think Horton is probably better than. Owen White, Mick Abel, Brandon Pfaadt is in the big leagues and has been for a minute, Kyle Harrison, Gavin Williams in the big leagues and has thrown almost 40 innings. That puts Horton at around the #3 SP prospect in baseball behind Painter and Tiedmann. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

2 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Have you been keeping up? He’s rising like a rocket on prospect lists daily. Just to be easy and use MLB Pipeline, he’s #45 overall and the #8 SP prospect in all of baseball. I won’t go through every pitcher ahead of him and why, be my guest to do your own research, but I will list who I think Horton is probably better than. Owen White, Mick Abel, Brandon Pfaadt is in the big leagues and has been for a minute, Kyle Harrison, Gavin Williams in the big leagues and has thrown almost 40 innings. That puts Horton at around the #3 SP prospect in baseball behind Painter and Tiedmann. 

Yes, I have been keeping up.  You don't get to change the definition of prospect.

Guys are eligible for lists until they lose their rookie eligibility.

Let's just be easy and use the MLB Pipeline list. There's more than five pitchers in front of him.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[SOFNR]

There's no chance I'd move Horton for a reliever. No chance. Luckily the Cubs won't either. If we're moving top prospects for a cost controlled guy it better be a starter or a bat. Bednar would be a nice addition if the Pirates are willing to take more of a quanity over quality package. But I think trading top prospects for cost controlled relievers would be a pretty weird move for Hoyer right now.

Edited July 30, 2023 by SOFNR

[JD94]

4 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Yes, I have been keeping up.  You don't get to change the definition of prospect.

Guys are eligible for lists until they lose their rookie eligibility.

Lord man. Williams is 5 days away from losing prospect status. I don’t know the exact number for Pfaadt, but he’s either lost prospect status already or is a few days away. Do you hate every Cubs prospect? It seems like every interaction I’ve had with you has been you arguing against prospects. Cade Horton is elite. Enjoy it man. It’s okay to get excited about a prospect. Every great player was once a prospect somewhere in the minor leagues. Horton is climbing super fast, he’s better than many ahead of him, scouts love him. He should be just as untouchable as PCA. He’s hands down a top 5 pitching prospect in baseball, and very likely #3 as we sit here today. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

4 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I’m not moving Horton for Bednar. However, I do hope the Cubs are swimming in these types of waters of high end cost controlled talent. 

I'm not, like, demanding they move him for Bednar. But I won't be mad if they do.

Is he a top-50 prospect as a starting pitcher?  Sure, give or take.

Here's a list of every Cubs pitcher who appeared on Baseball America's list between 15 and 60 in the last 25 years:

Juan Cruz, Ben Christiansen, Angel Guzman, Felix Cisco, Justin Jones, Trey McNutt, Carl Edwards, Brailyn Marquez, 

If you're not willing to give up an average guy from that tier for 3.5 years of control of a guy you *know* can pitch in the big leagues, then you're just plain valuing prospects wrong.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 minute ago, JD94 said:

Lord man. Williams is 5 days away from losing prospect status. I don’t know the exact number for Pfaadt, but he’s either lost prospect status already or is a few days away. Do you hate every Cubs prospect? It seems like every interaction I’ve had with you has been you arguing against prospects. Cade Horton is elite. Enjoy it man. It’s okay to get excited about a prospect. Every great player was once a prospect somewhere in the minor leagues. Horton is climbing super fast, he’s better than many ahead of him, scouts love him. He should be just as untouchable as PCA. He’s hands down a top 5 pitching prospect in baseball, and very likely #3 as we sit here today. 

Do I hate them or do you wildly overvalue prospects and I keep calling you out on it?

[We Got The Whole 9]

I think Alcantara+ could land him 

[JD94]

2 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I'm not, like, demanding they move him for Bednar. But I won't be mad if they do.

Is he a top-50 prospect as a starting pitcher?  Sure, give or take.

Here's a list of every Cubs pitcher who appeared on Baseball America's list between 15 and 60 in the last 25 years:

Juan Cruz, Ben Christiansen, Angel Guzman, Felix Cisco, Justin Jones, Trey McNutt, Carl Edwards, Brailyn Marquez, 

If you're not willing to give up an average guy from that tier for 3.5 years of control of a guy you *know* can pitch in the big leagues, then you're just plain valuing prospects wrong.

Are we going to act like prospect development is linear and Juan Cruz and Cade Horton are the same people? Are we also going to act like… you know… the whole pitching infrastructure overhaul the Cubs did a few years ago isn’t working? The same one that helped turned Justin Steele from a nobody to MLB ace? Resurrected Adbert Alzolay’s career? Has left its stamp on many prospects throughout the organization? Do you know the main reason behind hiring Carter Hawkins? But no… let’s point out that Juan Cruz was once a top prospect that failed so now we should trade one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the whole game for a reliever. Makes totallllll sense 

[Tryptamine]

5 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I'm not, like, demanding they move him for Bednar. But I won't be mad if they do.

Is he a top-50 prospect as a starting pitcher?  Sure, give or take.

Here's a list of every Cubs pitcher who appeared on Baseball America's list between 15 and 60 in the last 25 years:

Juan Cruz, Ben Christiansen, Angel Guzman, Felix Cisco, Justin Jones, Trey McNutt, Carl Edwards, Brailyn Marquez, 

If you're not willing to give up an average guy from that tier for 3.5 years of control of a guy you *know* can pitch in the big leagues, then you're just plain valuing prospects wrong.

3.5 years of a SP or position prospect sure, but I'm not interested in doing for a reliever 

[KCCub]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I'm not, like, demanding they move him for Bednar. But I won't be mad if they do.

Is he a top-50 prospect as a starting pitcher?  Sure, give or take.

Here's a list of every Cubs pitcher who appeared on Baseball America's list between 15 and 60 in the last 25 years:

Juan Cruz, Ben Christiansen, Angel Guzman, Felix Cisco, Justin Jones, Trey McNutt, Carl Edwards, Brailyn Marquez, 

If you're not willing to give up an average guy from that tier for 3.5 years of control of a guy you *know* can pitch in the big leagues, then you're just plain valuing prospects wrong.

I have faith in our pitching infrastructure starting with Carter Hawkins on down. We absolutely couldn’t develop pitching years ago. I understand the point you are making and typically agree to take the big leaguer over a prospect. I personally think Horton is going to be special and I’m not moving him for Bednar/RP.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 minute ago, JD94 said:

Are we going to act like prospect development is linear and Juan Cruz and Cade Horton are the same people? Are we also going to act like… you know… the whole pitching infrastructure overhaul the Cubs did a few years ago isn’t working? The same one that helped turned Justin Steele from a nobody to MLB ace? Resurrected Adbert Alzolay’s career? Has left its stamp on many prospects throughout the organization? Do you know the main reason behind hiring Carter Hawkins? But no… let’s point out that Juan Cruz was once a top prospect that failed so now we should trade one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the whole game for a reliever. Makes totallllll sense 

You're *so* close to understanding why you shouldn't overvalue very good but non-elite pitching prospects.

Prospect development (especially pitchers) not being linear and what we hope is a nascent Cubs ability to draw value out of unexpected prospects is *exactly* why we don't need to overvalue a guy like Horton.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[JD94]

5 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Do I hate them or do you wildly overvalue prospects and I keep calling you out on it?

You hate them. I’m only extremely high on Horton and PCA. Brown, Wicks, and Wesneski are likely BORP. I wanted to trade Brennan Davis even when prospect lists had him top 30 in baseball. I’m realistic with what I think. I don’t think every prospect is great. I also listen to people that know way more than I’ll ever know and they all love Cade Horton. I’m very fair. I can ***** about more of our prospects than I praise. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

You're *so* close to understanding why you shouldn't overvalue very good but non-elite pitching prospects.
 

I’m with JD on this one. You can’t trade Horton for Bednar. Not for a relief pitcher. Maybe Cease, maybe Alonso, definitely Soto, but not a reliever.