Ohtani to Dodgers for an ungodly amount of money

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Backtobanks said:

I'd love to have Ohtani, but that $500 million sure would go a long way toward filling all of the holes that the Cubs have.  As for Soto, use all of those prospects to acquire a TOR starter or two.  Any money left over from not signing Ohtani can go toward signing Soto next year.

"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush". If you wait every offseason for the next year's star, you'll never have one. It's time for the Cubs to stop collecting a bunch of pretty good players. It's time for the Cubs to start acquiring legitimate stars. Not only is Ohtani a 2024 signing at DH, he represent a 2025 signing of a top-of-the-rotation SP when he returns from TJS. There's really no argument, to me, in not signing Ohtani. $500m is a lot of money. But Ohtani is both a $200m hitter and a $200m pitcher and he's only one roster spot and there's a significant revenue boost for whomever signs him. There's a reason he's getting these offers...he's legitimately worth it.

[BigbadB]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think most are, but clearly not every one. The Cardinals have inked three starting pitchers including Sonny Gray. I have a feeling the Rays may move Glasnow before Ohtani signs. Dylan Cease seems likely to be traded in the next few days as well. So while I think a good 90% of the market is sitting on Ohtani (just a rough estimate), I think a decent portion of the market will still move. 

Didn't really think it needed to be said, but if you want me to clarify, then yes, I meant the "impactful" guys who have an interest in how the Ohtani free agency signing plays out are probably going to wait it out. It's clearly in their best interest to wait. The Padres might want the Cubs to get more involved with the Soto trade because it boosts their chances of acquiring more talent by having more teams involved, especially if teams are more desperate after an Ohtani signing than before.

[gocubs218]

Cubs should be signing a guy like Hoskins with or without Ohtani’s decision made. Same with trading for Glasnow. Both of those guys are one year deals. 

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

Didn't really think it needed to be said, but if you want me to clarify, then yes, I meant the "impactful" guys who have an interest in how the Ohtani free agency signing plays out are probably going to wait it out. It's clearly in their best interest to wait. The Padres might want the Cubs to get more involved with the Soto trade because it boosts their chances of acquiring more talent by having more teams involved, especially if teams are more desperate after an Ohtani signing than before.

I would consider Glasnow and Cease impactful, however, and I think both get moved in the next few days. Same with Sonny Gray who's already signed. I think it's important to point out, that there's a secondary market of good, impactful talent that will likely move and these players could be apart of "Ohtani Part 2" for whomever signs him. I understand that there are plenty of players, agents and teams who are going to use the Ohtani secondary market (teams who miss out) as leverage, but not everyone will as was your original message. I'm not trying to be pedantic, only to showcase, that I think a few more good, impactful talents will have new homes regardless of the Ohtani timeline. 

Edited December 3, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Cubs should be signing a guy like Hoskins with or without Ohtani’s decision made. Same with trading for Glasnow. Both of those guys are one year deals. 

Maybe. But let's look at it this way: let's suggest the Cubs are going to look to add one impactful contract and one major SP in this market (based on budget limits, luxury tax, etc). Glasnow works perfectly with Ohtani; he's not going to be break the bank via trade, and he'll be gone after year one. But if the Cubs lose out on Ohtani, perhaps it makes more sense to put the money into, say, Yamamoto, as the big add and then trade for like, Pete Alonso. Could they in theory trade for Glasnow and sign Yamamoto? Yeah, sure! But I think we know the Cubs probably wouldn't. 

The Cubs post-Ohtani could have wildly different paths in how they handle the offseason.

[CubinNY]

If this goes like the last one, Ohtani and his people will put out the news first before they tell the club.

so id check on sources attached to his agent 

[gocubs218]

 

[ILMindState]

https://x.com/jonmorosi/status/1731337035464499335?s=61&t=C3c_bOrcMTs7qQf0iZx3Pg

[CubinNY]

lol. For not wanting to be the focus of this week, he’s going to be the focus of this week. 

[Jason Ross]

Within the week sounds good to me. That could be Monday, it could be next Saturday. 

[ToolDRT]

Damn. This might make the winter meetings one of the least exciting of all-time. What’s going to really suck is if it was the dodgers all along and we wasted all this time on a guy who was never really interested in us when we could have been shopping for our other needs. 
 

Still hoping this gets done today or tomorrow so we can handle the rest of our offseason 

[jersey cubs fan]

Every time I click on this topic there’s 4 people saying we do not know if ohtani likes LA or not, another person miscalculating flight times, somebody else referencing a random Asian country and three posts from a media member saying he might decide within a week or 10 days. 

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

Damn. This might make the winter meetings one of the least exciting of all-time. What’s going to really suck is if it was the dodgers all along and we wasted all this time on a guy who was never really interested in us when we could have been shopping for our other needs. 
 

Still hoping this gets done today or tomorrow so we can handle the rest of our offseason 

Agreed. He does hold the Cubs up for sure. As someone has pointed out, Glasnow makes a lot of sense if they got Ohtani. He still makes some sense without, but really they should be looking at a longer term starting pitcher if they don’t get Ohtani. And that doesn’t even take into account if they should target Soto. Without Ohtani, Cubs could be looking harder at Yamamoto and maybe even Alonso in a deal (if Soto is not an option). They have more money they can spend. Without Ohtani or Soto, they probably should keep Morel. They still have the DH spot open even if Morel can’t play 3rd. All of this is held up waiting on Ohtani. 
 

And I realize none of this is Ohtani’s problem. But as others have pointed out, if he wants to win with a team he should decide asap so that team can then start it’s off season of building in addition to him. So it is something he should consider as well. He may be holding the team he eventually goes to up and during that time they might lose out on someone who would help them win. 

Edited December 3, 2023 by Rcal10

[ILMindState]

Breaking news: This is not the first time ever that the top free agent in the market has waited to sign before the winter meetings have started. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, ILMindState said:

Breaking news: This is not the first time ever that the top free agent in the market has waited to sign before the winter meetings have started. 

Correct. However it had been reported that HE wanted this done before the winter meetings. For me, that’s the reason I thought it would be done, if not by now, within the next day or two. 

[ILMindState]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Correct. However it had been reported that HE wanted this done before the winter meetings. For me, that’s the reason I thought it would be done, if not by now, within the next day or two. 

Correct, which is why we shouldn't listen to random people on the internet. It's clear nobody knows. It'll be announced when it's announced. And him holding up the rest of the FA market literally happens every year with the top FA in the class. Teams and agents will wait. 

[ToolDRT]

10 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

Breaking news: This is not the first time ever that the top free agent in the market has waited to sign before the winter meetings have started. 

The issue is this IS the first time anyone is going to sign a contract of this nature. And while he’s fully within his rights to take as long as he wants to decide, he is also making it harder for his chosen team to add around his enormous contract. 

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

Correct, which is why we shouldn't listen to random people on the internet. It's clear nobody knows. It'll be announced when it's announced. And him holding up the rest of the FA market literally happens every year with the top FA in the class. Teams and agents will wait. 

The "he might sign before the WM's" wasn't really random people. It was coming from respected people in the industry. I wouldn't listen to this "dave" guy on twitter, but people like Morosi, and others, suggested it could get done pre-WM.

Certainly not the first high prized guy to not sign before the meetings, and if he doesn't sign in the next few days, won't be the first to sign after the meetings. But I also can understand where people thought he might sign before, too.

Edited December 3, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[ILMindState]

2 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

The issue is this IS the first time anyone is going to sign a contract of this nature. And while he’s fully within his rights to take as long as he wants to decide, he is also making it harder for his chosen team to add around his enormous contract. 

Players signed record contracts in past years as well. It's a record contract until it's not. This literally happens every year and will happen again next year with Soto. 

[ILMindState]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The "he might sign before the WM's" wasn't really random people. It was coming from respected people in the industry. I wouldn't listen to this "dave" guy on twitter, but people like Morosi, and others, suggested it could get done pre-WM.

Certainly not the first high prized guy to not sign before the meetings, and if he doesn't sign in the next few days, won't be the first to sign after the meetings. But I also can understand where people thought he might sign before, too.

I guess I've lost track of who has said what. I can see tha perspective but it's odd to me that people are calling Ohtani some kinda undecisive weirdo who can't make a decision when this literally happens every year. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, ILMindState said:

I guess I've lost track of who has said what. I can see tha perspective but it's odd to me that people are calling Ohtani some kinda undecisive weirdo who can't make a decision when this literally happens every year. 

Yeah, I agree with the second part. My guess is that it's a combination of personal impatience, excitement, and nerves. I know I've caught myself getting on the "refresh twitter compulsively" team the last few days. 

[ToolDRT]

9 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

Players signed record contracts in past years as well. It's a record contract until it's not. This literally happens every year and will happen again next year with Soto. 

Yeah, you’re underestimating this contract. Not only that, you’re underestimating its impact on team payroll. This is 50 mil of your off season spending right off the bat. Teams need to know if that contract is going to be on their books before they can spend accordingly around it. 
 

Also, I was not remotely calling him “indecisive” or “weird”. You might be referring to others with that statement, but to clarify I fully understand he can take his time here. It’s his decision. But if he’s truly prioritizing winning above all else it would behoove him to figure this out soon so the winning team can fill other holes. 

Edited December 3, 2023 by ToolDRT

[jersey cubs fan]

5 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

Yeah, you’re underestimating this contract. Not only that, you’re underestimating its impact on team payroll. This is 50 mil of your off season spending right off the bat. Teams need to know if that contract is going to be on their books before they can spend accordingly around it. 

In 1992 Ryne Sandberg signed a contract accounting for 25% of the teams payroll. This literally happens every year. 

[ToolDRT]

4 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

In 1992 Ryne Sandberg signed a contract accounting for 25% of the teams payroll. This literally happens every year. 

This might be a 600 million dollar contract. If you’re comparing that to the highest contracts of last offseason I don’t know what else I could possibly say here. 
 

The highest contract the cubs have given is 184 million. This is easily over 500 and trending upwards. Signing Ohtani will -without question - alter what a team spends after that. I’m really not even sure why it’s a debate. Signing Ohtani might be the difference in trading for Glasnow vs targeting Yamamoto. That’s a pretty big difference, no?  

Edited December 3, 2023 by ToolDRT

[ToolDRT]

9 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Even if you missed the point: friendly reminder that a bajillion dollars over a gajillion years is not a bajillion dollars

There’s no point to have missed. This isn’t really an inflation argument. It’s common sense that teams have budgets. Ohtani is going to be heavily impacting that budget based on his yearly contract. So a team has to alter where the rest of those resources are allocated based on his contract.
 

The wild part is I’ve never stated he’s being unreasonable. But he’s handcuffing whichever team he chooses the longer he waits  

 

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by ToolDRT