7/23 - Cardinals (Montgomery) vs Cubs (Taillon): 1:20pm, Marquee

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Cubs have a chance to win a four game series against the Cards today but the pitching matchup doesn't favor the hometown nine.

No matter what happens today, it's likely the Cubs are sellers at the deadline... but it'd still be more fun to watch them make things interesting over the next several days. They're only four games under .500 after yesterday's win.

[Derwood]

13 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Oooh no, our new rules are on this binary too? It’s not real and never was! 

Dude

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Oooh no, our new rules are on this binary too? It’s not real and never was! 

Where did I imply it's a binary? There is a range of buying and selling. It's likely the Cubs will sell... to what extent? Well, I don't think anyone knows that, maybe not even the Cubs.

But it'd be foolish to not closely monitor the market and move pieces that bring back good prospects for expiring contracts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Exactly like last year probably much less than expected, if at all. We’ve already been here with an actually bad team and they didn’t do what was expected 

And that's entirely possible. I'd find it rather unfortunate but it's definitely possible... but to be fair, there is a significant portion of every fanbase that screams whenever a team fails to move literally every living, breathing player on the roster at the trade deadline.

I think the Cubs will be modest sellers but there's a lot of interesting possibilities within that statement.

[JD94]

27 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Exactly like last year probably much less than expected, if at all. We’ve already been here with an actually bad team and they didn’t do what was expected 

The Cubs absolutely tried and had every intention to trade Contreras and Happ at the deadline. Contreras was a tough one because teams don’t necessarily like trading for a starting catcher at the deadline unless it’s a no brainer. Contreras came with defensive concerns obviously which is not something they wanted to deal with having him come in and mess up their starters. He was a done deal to Houston before Dusty stepped in and said no. The Cubs decided that the comp pick they’d get for him was better than anything else they could get. Happ was always a guy that was still young and decent enough that if they couldn’t get a solid return for him that they could give a small extension to and just keep him around. That was more valuable than the returns they were offered. 
 

It has nothing to do with the Cubs deciding to not make bigger moves and it won’t have any indication on what they might do this year. Stroman will be traced and Bellinger will too if they get a package that they think is more valuable than the comp pick they would receive by extending him the QO. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

^^ Yeah, sorry to jump on you for that at 9 AM on a Sunday lol…I just saw that chunk and thought “oh boi, as if sellers on the site needed more confidence and an endorsement from ownership” 

No worries, I wasn’t bothered by it at all. 

[JD94]

5 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

You know what speaks louder than intention, particularly when we have so little actual info? That neither guy was moved, one even got extended. Maybe we can thank Dusty for that, bullet dodged because Urquidy ain’t it, but yeah I choose action over presumed intention 

Come on man. Jed would be the worst GM of all time if he looked at an asset like Willson Contreras who was a upcoming free agent on a team that lost the division by 19 games and said “you know what, I don’t think we want to trade him. I’m also not going to offer him an extension. I don’t want him beyond 2022, but I’m not going to trade him either.” Does that actually make sense to you? He tried like hell to trade Contreras. He ended up settling for the comp pick instead. 

[ToolDRT]

Oh boy, we’re likely gonna need a lot of offense today. Would be really nice to see Jameson trend in the right direction though. 

[jersey cubs fan]

11 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Come on man. Jed would be the worst GM of all time if he looked at an asset like Willson Contreras who was a upcoming free agent on a team that lost the division by 19 games and said “you know what, I don’t think we want to trade him. I’m also not going to offer him an extension. I don’t want him beyond 2022, but I’m not going to trade him either.” Does that actually make sense to you? He tried like hell to trade Contreras. He ended up settling for the comp pick instead. 

Welcome to nsbb, please don’t feed the toms 

[CubUgly]

10 minutes ago, JD94 said:

 He tried like hell to trade Contreras. He ended up settling for the comp pick instead. 

I think so as well.   I just think other teams saw what the Cubs did in WC40.  A good hitter,,,,,,for a catcher.  But a catcher who contending teams didn't trust handling their staffs.  So the Cards end up paying 5 years and $87 million for a guy who llikely ends up hitting around .250 with  15-20 homers and by the last couple of years of the contract likely not even that well, and DH'ing nearly as much as catching because of his flaws as a receiver that don't seem to be improving despite being subjected to "the Cardinal Way".

I  also believe they tried like hell to trade Happ too and the offers just weren't good enough and they did get him on a short - team friendly in terms of length deal - that for the length of the contract they likely could not have gotten a plater or prospect that could project as well as Happ for that period of time. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

36 minutes ago, JD94 said:

The Cubs absolutely tried and had every intention to trade Contreras and Happ at the deadline.

Contreras, yes, but I don't buy that the Cubs were ever serious about trading Happ.  I think they would have made a deal if the right one presented itself, but they were more inclined to stay pat and explore their options in the off-season (leading to the extension).

[JD94]

31 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Preeeeettty much alls I’m asking of him again is ignore the noise and take that option no one’s talking about again

I’m sure the Cubs did try and trade Contreras. That they didn’t is just another hint that selling just to sell, happy to take scraps, isn’t the master stroke fans imagine 

If the QO wasn’t on the table to get a comp pick back, then the Cubs would have traded Contreras for a bag of balls. That caveat has to be considered. That’s literally the only reason they didn’t trade him. There was always that fall back option. 
 

Look I mean if you want to hold out hope or whatever it is that they aren’t selling this deadline then fine, that’s your prerogative. Personally I think we are doing a disservice to not speak realistically here about the path to selling. The Cubs are going to sell. I’d rather talk about possible returns than argue back and forth all day about “what if they don’t because they did this last year” or “what if they win X amount of games and this team loses Y amount of games,” etc… 

 

I could absolutely see Bellinger not get dealt if the return isn’t good enough. I’ll give you that one. They can either do the same with him as they did with Contreras and value the comp pick more than trade returns and go that route, or maybe they just resign him in the offseason. Everybody else should absolutely be discussed as trade options and what the returns could be though. Such as Hendricks possibly, Stroman, Gomes, Smyly (not likely anybody wants him, but still), a couple of our relievers, etc. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, JD94 said:

The Cubs absolutely tried and had every intention to trade Contreras and Happ at the deadline. Contreras was a tough one because teams don’t necessarily like trading for a starting catcher at the deadline unless it’s a no brainer. Contreras came with defensive concerns obviously which is not something they wanted to deal with having him come in and mess up their starters. He was a done deal to Houston before Dusty stepped in and said no. The Cubs decided that the comp pick they’d get for him was better than anything else they could get. Happ was always a guy that was still young and decent enough that if they couldn’t get a solid return for him that they could give a small extension to and just keep him around. That was more valuable than the returns they were offered. 
 

It has nothing to do with the Cubs deciding to not make bigger moves and it won’t have any indication on what they might do this year. Stroman will be traced and Bellinger will too if they get a package that they think is more valuable than the comp pick they would receive by extending him the QO. 

They need to go 7-2 to the deadline be hopefully gain 2 or 3 games on the leaders to not sell at the absolute end of the deadline. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, JD94 said:

Come on man. Jed would be the worst GM of all time if he looked at an asset like Willson Contreras who was a upcoming free agent on a team that lost the division by 19 games and said “you know what, I don’t think we want to trade him. I’m also not going to offer him an extension. I don’t want him beyond 2022, but I’m not going to trade him either.” Does that actually make sense to you? He tried like hell to trade Contreras. He ended up settling for the comp pick instead. 

It does, because the comp pick and associated flexibility is worth more to Jed(and frankly, most front offices) than what rentals have gone for in the 2020s.  He took what he could in 2021 because the system lacked depth and the team without those rentals was less in a place to immediately compete(and therefore aggressively pursue QO'd FA), but the team isn't in that place any more.  You see that in how he didn't trade either of Happ or Contreras and then extended the former, and in how  since the Baez/Rizzo/Bryant exodus they've only traded away relievers.

[JD94]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It does, because the comp pick and associated flexibility is worth more to Jed(and frankly, most front offices) than what rentals have gone for in the 2020s.  He took what he could in 2021 because the system lacked depth and the team without those rentals was less in a place to immediately compete(and therefore aggressively pursue QO'd FA), but the team isn't in that place any more.

I’m not arguing returns and value of prospects for rentals vs comp picks. I’m saying the Cubs are selling. Stroman will 100% be traded. Bellinger will 100% be traded if they get a return more valuable than the comp pick. That’s all I’m saying. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

They need to go 7-2 to the deadline be hopefully gain 2 or 3 games on the leaders to not sell at the absolute end of the deadline. 

Welcome!  That username looks familiar, if by some chance you've been a poster here before and want to find a way to get into an account you can't access since we changed platforms, @Brock Beauchamp can potentially help.  If I'm mistaken, 1) sorry about that 2) welcome again!

[JD94]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

They need to go 7-2 to the deadline be hopefully gain 2 or 3 games on the leaders to not sell at the absolute end of the deadline. 

I just don’t see any path where the Cubs don’t sell. Personally I think it would be a mistake to not sell regardless of what happens from now until the deadline. That’s just me though. I’d sell this year and by god they better win next year. No more selling. No more excuses. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I’m not arguing returns and value of prospects for rentals vs comp picks. I’m saying the Cubs are selling. Stroman will 100% be traded. Bellinger will 100% be traded if they get a return more valuable than the comp pick. That’s all I’m saying. 

I'm with you about the team's approach to the rest of 2023, the time for them to add 2023-only contributors has been gone for a while, and I expect them to find a new home for Fulmer as soon as they can.  The point I keep coming back to in the 'sell' conversation is the odds that Bellinger 'gets a return more valuable than the comp pick' are actually quite low, because the value of having a QO'd FA is a lot higher than the pick valuation chart that floats around as the justification in these cases.  So really the only real difference in the state of the team pre/post deadline even in a broadly 'selling' situation comes down to Stroman.  If you made me guess I would say he will be traded, but given how open he has been about an extension and the likelihood a semi-reasonable extension is possible(plus the questionable benefit of negotiating in the offseason having kept him), I would say those odds are a fair amount less than 100% too even if it's still ~70-80%.

[JD94]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm with you about the team's approach to the rest of 2023, the time for them to add 2023-only contributors has been gone for a while, and I expect them to find a new home for Fulmer as soon as they can.  The point I keep coming back to in the 'sell' conversation is the odds that Bellinger 'gets a return more valuable than the comp pick' are actually quite low, because the value of having a QO'd FA is a lot higher than the pick valuation chart that floats around as the justification in these cases.  So really the only real difference in the state of the team pre/post deadline even in a broadly 'selling' situation comes down to Stroman.  If you made me guess I would say he will be traded, but given how open he has been about an extension and the likelihood a semi-reasonable extension is possible(plus the questionable benefit of negotiating in the offseason having kept him), I would say those odds are a fair amount less than 100% too even if it's still ~70-80%.

I don’t disagree with any of this really. They will 100% shop Bellinger. If a return blows them away, they will take it. If not, which is likely, they will keep him and take the comp pick once he declines the QO. 
 

I lean more heavily towards Stroman is getting traded regardless. Blake Snell is the only other starter that could get dealt that’s as good as Stroman. I’m not completely sold the Padres sell though. They are in a more unique situation than the Cubs. They have a loaded team and are technically in their competitive window. Their GM is a “gunslinger” type. He always has his foot on the gas pedal. If they decide to hold on to Snell, then Stroman is easily the best pitcher available and that will be very beneficial for the Cubs. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I lean more heavily towards Stroman is getting traded regardless. Blake Snell is the only other starter that could get dealt that’s as good as Stroman. I’m not completely sold the Padres sell though. They are in a more unique situation than the Cubs. They have a loaded team and are technically in their competitive window. Their GM is a “gunslinger” type. He always has his foot on the gas pedal. If they decide to hold on to Snell, then Stroman is easily the best pitcher available and that will be very beneficial for the Cubs. 

Montgomery is the other one that you could say is in that conversation, their results have been strikingly similar this year. He doesn't quite have Stroman's reputation but also Stroman's reputation at times exceeds his raw stuff so that might net out in how some competing teams view him as a target. The Cubs should do themselves the double favor of battering him around today to return the favor from Stroman's start.

But yeah, increasingly I'm of the view that some team is gonna make it worth the Cubs while to let go of the possibility of a Stroman extension, and given how Jed has increasingly approached these deadline deals I strongly suspect it's someone who plays a meaningful 2024 role.  So the overall short term impact of the sell is that instead of a not-opted out or extended Stroman, you have an additional 20ish million and some other contributor heading into 2024.

[Eeyore]

When discussing the value of Bellinger's compensation pick let's all realize that it will come after the second round. Given the unpredictable nature of the MLB draft I'd probably take a promising low A or even a developmental player that is more of a known quality than what a ~68th (ish) overall pick might be. $1,101,000 draft pool. The Cubs used that this year for Wiggins who has, in my opinion, a high ceiling but a below sea level floor. I believe that his era was 6+ over the last two seasons and he had surgery. That's what we're talking about if the Cubs opt for the comp pick.

As many have said, it depends on the offer but let's not act like we're looking at a top 15 pick for not trading him.

I want the best for the Cubs. I'm an unhealthy 52 and I truly understand that every season is sacred but I don't see this team knocking off the Braves, Dodgers, etc in the playoffs regardless of who they could acquire.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Eeyore said:

When discussing the value of Bellinger's compensation pick let's all realize that it will come after the second round. Given the unpredictable nature of the MLB draft I'd probably take a promising low A or even a developmental player that is more of a known quality than what a ~68th (ish) overall pick might be. $1,101,000 draft pool. The Cubs used that this year for Wiggins who has, in my opinion, a high ceiling but a below sea level floor. I believe that his era was 6+ over the last two seasons and he had surgery. That's what we're talking about if the Cubs opt for the comp pick.

As many have said, it depends on the offer but let's not act like we're looking at a top 15 pick for not trading him.

This is what I was referencing above, looking at the pick in isolation is underrating the value it has to front offices, at least those that are consistently successful.  It's not simply that they can get a player of Wiggins' caliber or even the nominal bonus pool, it's about how aggressive they can be in free agency without significantly hurting the player development pipeline.  In the scenario where you don't really care about the pick and trade Bellinger for whatever, then in the offseason if you sign a QO Free Agent your next chance to infuse talent into the farm system comes without the 2nd best pick/bonus pool and 500k less in IFA.  Especially if you're picking in the mid-teens or later like the Cubs seem likely to land, that's a significant drop in the total amount of resources you have to keep that talent pipeline(the most important element for consistent MLB success) going.  Plus the current state of the Cubs farm has plenty of depth so they would value a similar player in the 2024 class more than one in AA now that's imminently needing added to the 40 man.

But don't just take my word for it, you can see this in how teams actually behave.  Look at who has signed QO Free Agents over the years and if they also gained a pick that same offseason. The names on the 'also gained a pick that offseason' side of the ledger are generally the organizations that set the standard(and not just in spending), the names that did so without getting a pick in return are...a lot less admirable in their approach and results, broadly speaking.

[Nolansomebody]

 

Lineup for today.

[ToolDRT]

Anyone heading to the game on Tuesday night? Will be my first of the year. 

[17 Seconds]

it's funny watching all the new people slowly realize that TT knows more than all of us