Mid season 2023 State of the Farm Discussion

[CubinNY]

I was really good at watching the minor league games and checking the box scores for about the first month and half, then life got in the way a lot. I'm interested in hearing what you people think of the state of the farm system at this point. We can talk about specific prospects or in general.

My impression is that in general starting pitching is way up and hitting is way down with a few exceptions.

PCA is obviously the stand-out guy, still. Hayden McGeary, BJ Murry, and who else have boosted their stock? Owen Caissie has shown power, but he still strikes out a lot. Injuries have hurt too, I'm thinking of Canario, Howard, and Davis. 

Pitching- Horton has blown me away. Brown has been really good. Ferris is shown great stuff but he's a long way away. Killian, I don't know what to make of. 

I still don't see a lot of stars in the minors. 

Where does Shaw fit in with this group?

Anyway, I'm anxious to read what other people think. 

[mul21]

I think we probably need to reserve judgement on some of the AA guys K rates until the second half is well under way to see if the extra tacked ball is really making a difference in those numbers (on both side of the ball).  Caissie is the guy I'm intrigued by but also concerned about the high K rates.

Shaw strikes me as Dan Uggla with good defense maybe based on all the things I've read.

Overall I agree with you, probably a bunch of 3-4 WAR guys at their peak but none of those 6-7 WAR guys you really need to make things go.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

On the pitching side, I'm pretty bullish on Horton and want to see him in AA soon.  It's the control and depth of repertoire(that he's apparently using consistently) that excites me more than the hot streaks you see from other prospects.  Brown and Wicks are still good prospects but them taking a few AAA lumps is a good reminder that you aren't going to put them in a 2024 rotation in pen.  The AAA relievers have been disappointing as a group, where they seem to pass the baton of bad outings and no one looks primed to be anything more than a mid-innings guy on performance.  The middle class of SP haven't really had someone step up like Brown did before he was traded.  Hodge, Herz, Palencia, Kilian, Devers, Birdsell, none of these guys are disappointing individually for not becoming mid-rotation hopefuls, but going 0 for 6 collectively (so far) is a bummer.  Ferris and Gray offer some hope and I'm curious how they serve as proof of concept of what can happen with Kantrovitz + Pitch Lab.

 

As for the hitters, I'm encouraged that Crow-Armstrong's swing decisions keep improving and that he's maintaining that power.  Would like to see a little more baserunning precision(only 76% SB%), but learning by doing is what the minor leagues are for. I think between Mervis, McGeary, and Caissie even if neither has a stranglehold on 1B/DH that we'll have more confidence one of them can help there in 2024 than we did for Mervis at the end of last year.  I also think Caissie's trajectory serves as a useful reminder about age relative to level, and to be excited about Ballesteros/Rojas and less down about Hernandez than we might be otherwise.  I'm down on Alcantara, not necessarily because he had some early season struggles(though I think those reveling in his June have undersold the depth of his badness for a long period) but simply because roster math is gonna catch up with him before he's ready.  If they're trading with a team that has fewer aspirations for 2024 he'd be high up the list of guys I'd send out as a result.  Howard and Davis looking cooked so far hurts, maybe Canario can buck the trend when he's truly healthy and back to Iowa to at least give some hope he can play some MLB role in 2024.

[muntjack]

I think Caissie is the only potential lineup anchor/superstar bat.  He has to make the next adjustment but he has tons of time and he could make it at any moment.  When/if he does, he's pretty much ready.   

PCA I'm guessing ends up a Dansby-type with his defense doing the heavy lifting on his high WAR. Great guys to have hitting sixth and seventh on a perennial contender.  

Brown will have success in MLB, but how much and in what role seems uncertain.   

Would love to see any and all upper-level,  potential SLG guys get a major league shot in the 2nd half.  

 

 

[CubinNY]

33 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think we probably need to reserve judgement on some of the AA guys K rates until the second half is well under way to see if the extra tacked ball is really making a difference in those numbers (on both side of the ball).  Caissie is the guy I'm intrigued by but also concerned about the high K rates.

Shaw strikes me as Dan Uggla with good defense maybe based on all the things I've read.

Overall I agree with you, probably a bunch of 3-4 WAR guys at their peak but none of those 6-7 WAR guys you really need to make things go.

I've seen the Ugla comparisons and I think it has to do more with body shape than game. I think he's closer to Altuve than he is to Ugla if things break right for him.

[Tryptamine]

18 hours ago, mul21 said:

I think we probably need to reserve judgement on some of the AA guys K rates until the second half is well under way to see if the extra tacked ball is really making a difference in those numbers (on both side of the ball).  Caissie is the guy I'm intrigued by but also concerned about the high K rates.

Shaw strikes me as Dan Uggla with good defense maybe based on all the things I've read.

Overall I agree with you, probably a bunch of 3-4 WAR guys at their peak but none of those 6-7 WAR guys you really need to make things go.

I honestly haven't come up with a good comp yet. Uggla had far more power than I expect from Shaw but also likely had a considerably worse hit tool. I thought about Pedroia but Pedroia is likely a significantly better defender and, though I expect Shaw to have a higher BB%, he'll also probably have near double Pedroia's K%. Michael Young had a better hit tool, but I expect Shaw to have more pop and be a bigger threat on the bases. I come back to a guy like Rickie Weeks, but with less swing and miss and better defense. A guy who could possibly give you 20/20 in his best years and you're maybe looking at .270/.280 batting average and .350 obp. A guy, like you said, in the 3-4 WAR range most years with peak years a bit higher if things go right.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think if you want to be optimistic on Shaw, you can point to most of the complaints about his defense being arm-related, which combined with his physicality & work ethic you can draw a line to him being closer to the Dansby/Nico end of defenders who lack elite arms.  That would then put his profile in the vicinity of like a Marcus Semien, again assuming positive outcomes for the bat too.  More realistic might then be closer to Brandon Drury if he's more of an average defender but still hits like you hope?

[Outshined_One]

The State of the Farm is overall good, but there are some disconcerting things that give me pause.

On the pitching side of things, the Cubs have lined up a number of fascinating arms who bring a variety of positive attributes.  I actually really like that the Cubs have a mix of guys in AAA and AA who excel in different things and bring different attributes to the table.  With the lower minors, I'm a bit skeptical of their depth, but there's enough there for guys (namely Farris and Gray) to take meaningful steps forward.  My only concern is, historically, we're entering the dead arm period and we likely will see a number of these guys struggle and get shut down in the coming weeks. It's a normal part of the development process, but it can also be telling if those guys can hack it as starters long term.

On the hitting side...sigh.  PCA has been pretty much the lone shining star at higher levels and looks like a legitimate stud, but we also knew that coming into the season.  Otherwise, it's been a series of struggles, injuries, disappointments, and that horsefeathersing pre-tacked ball in AA.  The potential is still there for a lot of these guys, and I expect we'll see improvements all around in the second half of the season, but, aside from PCA, I'm really bearish on their position players to this point in the season.

As for the draft, I'm overall feeling positive about the depth and potential it brings.  The downside is Shaw is the only guy I'd immediately slot into my personal Top 10 (probably around 2-4 behind PCA), with Carico and Rivera likely somewhere in the 15-20 range. However, it's worth remembering how ludicrously deep this draft was, so I wouldn't discount anyone just because he was taken after the first or second round.  As a result, the upside is there's a lot of breakout potential, particularly with guys like Wiggins, Sanders, and Rosario. 

[Hrubes20]

I would say the current state of the system seems about where it should be.  Only real big faller is Davis.  Horton went meteoric.  Rojas and Ballesteros jumped up a bit.  None of the rest really gave us any reason to be overly concerned or overly excited just yet.  

[sneakypower]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

- I'm feeling very good, mid-season 2023, about [still] saying Gallardo's the best all around pitching prospect and even just prospect. He was all around excellent sometimes even dominant at High A, is again one of the youngest in AA, currently leads the org in IP by an average start for him and just under 2 for most everyone else. He needs to work on slider shape, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's tied to getting to more velo.

- The pitching development is starting to pick up steam in general and there's a conscientiousness to how they go about things. SP prospects are getting to the double digits as I sees it (Gallardo, Wicks, Horton, Ferris, Gray, Silverio, McGwire, Wiggins, Brown). I'm fascinated that a 16 YO is throwing pretty well in the org, never seent that

- The org's getting better at putting the ball in the air. Crow-Armstrong's biggest gain has been in this area, modeling Daulton Varsho. BJ Murray is having a fun season and maybe can push Mervis. Derniche Valdez has come in showing a very polished offensive game for his age hidden behind some early Ks. The three college bats from the draft are flyball hitters: Shaw (shouldn't have been available!) ran close to 50% I saw randomly online, Rivera's probably around that, Carico might be over. I'm optimistic Alfonsin Rosario, the big arm/high EV Renfroe starter kit drafted out of HS, is going to hit flyballs (and play defense) too

- They play good defense! Crow-Armstrong's one of the best in the minors at any position at this point. Alcantara and 9th round pick, Brett Bateman, have the tools and instincts to play CF too. Cole Roederer refuses to go away, and before more health issues Davis' defense earned praise from Hawkins. I was pleased to see Mervis is more 1B than DH, not going to hurt if he can actually take the job (BJ Murray's right behind him and also a good 1B defender). Hearn's going to be a really good defensive catcher, Windham's much improved, and Aliendo's earnest with an improved frame. Luis Vazquez has pixie dust potential, Rivera's got potential, and there's shiny news like Eriandys Ramon and Yahil Melendez as young-er glove first LHH MIF/IF

Feels like I'm rushing/missing something but maybe that's all the noise caused from not making any trades

"i'm feeling very good, let me tell you some more about a few good pitchers and like 20 non-prospects"

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

I honestly haven't come up with a good comp yet. Uggla had far more power than I expect from Shaw but also likely had a considerably worse hit tool. I thought about Pedroia but Pedroia is likely a significantly better defender and, though I expect Shaw to have a higher BB%, he'll also probably have near double Pedroia's K%. Michael Young had a better hit tool, but I expect Shaw to have more pop and be a bigger threat on the bases. I come back to a guy like Rickie Weeks, but with less swing and miss and better defense. A guy who could possibly give you 20/20 in his best years and you're maybe looking at .270/.280 batting average and .350 obp. A guy, like you said, in the 3-4 WAR range most years with peak years a bit higher if things go right.

Ian Kinsler or Marcus Semien on the high end.

EDIT: Pretty important to make sure autocorrect doesn't take over when spelling Marcus' last name.

Edited July 13, 2023 by CaliforniaRaisin

[Tryptamine]

7 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Ian Kinsler or Marcus Semien on the high end.

Ah, Kinsler is one I hadn't heard that I rather like. I expect a bit more BB% and K%, but it's quite close to what I feel his upside may be.